As a side note I am pretty sure that Robert Miner won the trading championships a while back, as you know he is heavily into Elliot and Fib, it would seem that this feat is no coincidence
Refer to XAO Analysis thread.WP,
What would your opinion be of the market being in a W4 on the down move thus far?
Cheers.
Good to hear your views Waves, gives a good balance between the bad things you hear and the good.I have read some articles from Kennedy, seems to know his stuff, I think most of Pretchers work is pay only so will have to have a think about this.
Wavepicker ,No doubt Miner is quite accomplished. Prechter after winning the championships(trading the OEX), that although he had a 444% gain, this was excluding commisssions. Apparently he made so many trades to acheive the 444% that if commisions were included he would not have made that much(this was 1984 ofcourse and commissions were quite expensive).
Although quite an accomplished options trader, he has always claimed that he has a long term investmet outlook and focused on insitutuinal clients
Closer to home you have Nick Radge's 'Chartist' service which does daily coverage of many local stocks, local and international indexes, along with some currencies and commodities. And he is a regular poster here on ASF.
I found EWI to be US and global 'big picture' heavy...which is interesting in and of itself, but since I don't trade those markets and the local market has proven time and again over the years that it's capabable of forging it's own patterns I find local analysis more valuable.
I guess it depends on what you want. I guess thats what makes Wave Pickers analysis so valuable too.
ASX.G
As Elliott Analysis is dynamic,people often become disillusioned when a wave count fails.
Failure of a count doesnt mean failure of analysis.Just as the failure of a spark plug doesnt mean the car has had it.
Current EW musings for XAO
This is a weekly chart, I have a wave B ending around the 16th May just above 6000, followed by a wave C down to just above 4500 which should complete the correction.
I admit there a couple of other counts, 1 being the recent high was a wave 5 and not a 3 which makes little difference short to medium term.
The second possibility is that the recent high was a wave B in an extended flat correction and we have completed the wave C down and will continue forever upwards with blue sky potential.If we go below 5380 that scenario is highly unlikey, most would say highly unlikely anyway, but fundamentals don't come into the counts, so is possible.
Wavepicker, did you have a time zone for the end of your triangle (larger degree wave B) would be interested what date you come up with although I know we use different methods.
Just thought I would update the EW chart posted a few weeks ago:
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=283151&postcount=129
Got the rally we expected back then so the count was pretty good. Blue and pink wave C's are at the later stages of their legs and should terminate at the 5800-5900 level unless we had a completion yesterday at 5740pts. Either way we are getting close to the termination of a Medium Term Cycle I estimate between 5-9th May.
Short term(1 Hr Cycles Chart) looks like we will pullback, but I feel prices still needs to reach a higher level relative to the Nominal level(blue line) on the 4hr and 8Hr Cycles Charts
Cheers
It will be interesting to see how the market pans out. I follow this thread with great interest.
terms peak? Have discussed the possibilities for Gold in the "Where Is Gold Heading Thread"
STO is an oil stock that I keep an eye on quite a bit. The monthly EW chart shows the possibility of a long term completing impulse, which is my Number 1 count. Red wave 5 appears to be a developing Ending Diagonal which if true might be very bearish.
Zooming into the daily chart one can see that wave 1(green) is the longest wave followed by wave 3(green) and wave 5(green) as well as overlap between waves 1 and 4 identifying the pattern together with 2 converging trendlines. The key to the pattern is the length of wave 5, it needs to remain shorter or at the most equal in length than wave 3. Therefore an upward break of $17.14 would invalidate the pattern and something else is happening. However I suspect the pattern is now complete and I am looking at possible short poistions on a retest of the high.
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