The Elliott Wave Analysis Thread

[chops_a_must]

WP,

What would your opinion be of the market being in a W4 on the down move thus far?

Cheers.

 

[wavepicker]

As a side note I am pretty sure that Robert Miner won the trading championships a while back, as you know he is heavily into Elliot and Fib, it would seem that this feat is no coincidence

No doubt Miner is quite accomplished. Prechter after winning the championships(trading the OEX), that although he had a 444% gain, this was excluding commisssions. Apparently he made so many trades to acheive the 444% that if commisions were included he would not have made that much(this was 1984 ofcourse and commissions were quite expensive).

Although quite an accomplished options trader, he has always claimed that he has a long term investmet outlook and focused on insitutuinal clients

 

[wavepicker]

WP,

What would your opinion be of the market being in a W4 on the down move thus far?

Cheers.

Refer to XAO Analysis thread.

 

[theasxgorilla]

Good to hear your views Waves, gives a good balance between the bad things you hear and the good.I have read some articles from Kennedy, seems to know his stuff, I think most of Pretchers work is pay only so will have to have a think about this.

Closer to home you have Nick Radge's 'Chartist' service which does daily coverage of many local stocks, local and international indexes, along with some currencies and commodities. And he is a regular poster here on ASF.

I found EWI to be US and global 'big picture' heavy...which is interesting in and of itself, but since I don't trade those markets and the local market has proven time and again over the years that it's capabable of forging it's own patterns I find local analysis more valuable.

I guess it depends on what you want. I guess thats what makes Wave Pickers analysis so valuable too.

ASX.G

 

[MARKETWAVES]

No doubt Miner is quite accomplished. Prechter after winning the championships(trading the OEX), that although he had a 444% gain, this was excluding commisssions. Apparently he made so many trades to acheive the 444% that if commisions were included he would not have made that much(this was 1984 ofcourse and commissions were quite expensive).

Although quite an accomplished options trader, he has always claimed that he has a long term investmet outlook and focused on insitutuinal clients

Wavepicker ,
What about Glen Neely- is he not accomplished also ?

 

[Porper]

Closer to home you have Nick Radge's 'Chartist' service which does daily coverage of many local stocks, local and international indexes, along with some currencies and commodities. And he is a regular poster here on ASF.

I found EWI to be US and global 'big picture' heavy...which is interesting in and of itself, but since I don't trade those markets and the local market has proven time and again over the years that it's capabable of forging it's own patterns I find local analysis more valuable.

I guess it depends on what you want. I guess thats what makes Wave Pickers analysis so valuable too.

ASX.G

Yes, already a subscriber to Nick Radges' Chartist service, excellent too i.m.o, but I was just interested in other professionals interpretation of Elliot Wave, and fib, time analysis etc.

Always many ways to skin a cat, and always never know enough !!

 

[tech/a]

As Elliott Analysis is dynamic,people often become disillusioned when a wave count fails.
It is a characteristic of the analysis that upon wave count failure other alternative counts are presented as the nature of the counts,wave lengths and extensions become aparent.

This takes a while for people to understand and become proficient in trading these dynamics.
Waiting for trade entries and exits to come to you using Elliott is a nature of the beast.
As Radge says
"Prove,Disprove".

Failure of a count doesnt mean failure of analysis.Just as the failure of a spark plug doesnt mean the car has had it.

 

[theasxgorilla]

As Elliott Analysis is dynamic,people often become disillusioned when a wave count fails.

I become disillusioned by consecutive losing trades and negative expectancy, how about you?

Failure of a count doesnt mean failure of analysis.Just as the failure of a spark plug doesnt mean the car has had it.

Just as success of a count doesn't guarantee profit from a trade. It's just as important to know the difference between a proficient analyst and a profitable trader if you're going to take action on what someone is telling you.

ASX.G

 

[wavepicker]

Current EW musings for XAO

 

[wavepicker]

terms peak? Have discussed the possibilities for Gold in the "Where Is Gold Heading Thread"

STO is an oil stock that I keep an eye on quite a bit. The monthly EW chart shows the possibility of a long term completing impulse, which is my Number 1 count. Red wave 5 appears to be a developing Ending Diagonal which if true might be very bearish.

Zooming into the daily chart one can see that wave 1(green) is the longest wave followed by wave 3(green) and wave 5(green) as well as overlap between waves 1 and 4 identifying the pattern together with 2 converging trendlines. The key to the pattern is the length of wave 5, it needs to remain shorter or at the most equal in length than wave 3. Therefore an upward break of $17.14 would invalidate the pattern and something else is happening. However I suspect the pattern is now complete and I am looking at possible short poistions on a retest of the high.

 

[Porper]

Current EW musings for XAO

This is a weekly chart, I have a wave B ending around the 16th May just above 6000, followed by a wave C down to just above 4500 which should complete the correction.

I admit there a couple of other counts, 1 being the recent high was a wave 5 and not a 3 which makes little difference short to medium term.

The second possibility is that the recent high was a wave B in an extended flat correction and we have completed the wave C down and will continue forever upwards with blue sky potential.If we go below 5380 that scenario is highly unlikey, most would say highly unlikely anyway, but fundamentals don't come into the counts, so is possible.

Wavepicker, did you have a time zone for the end of your triangle (larger degree wave B) would be interested what date you come up with although I know we use different methods.

 

[wavepicker]

This is a weekly chart, I have a wave B ending around the 16th May just above 6000, followed by a wave C down to just above 4500 which should complete the correction.

I admit there a couple of other counts, 1 being the recent high was a wave 5 and not a 3 which makes little difference short to medium term.

The second possibility is that the recent high was a wave B in an extended flat correction and we have completed the wave C down and will continue forever upwards with blue sky potential.If we go below 5380 that scenario is highly unlikey, most would say highly unlikely anyway, but fundamentals don't come into the counts, so is possible.

Wavepicker, did you have a time zone for the end of your triangle (larger degree wave B) would be interested what date you come up with although I know we use different methods.

Hello Porper, thanks for the chart. Don't have any date for the end of wave B yet. As you say there are many possibilities. My chart above says 5th May for this current leg up, but it could also come a little later wich gels you the date in your chart. (16th 17th May). Will have to monitor it for now and look for the wave structure for clues

Cheers

 

[wavepicker]

Just thought I would update the EW chart posted a few weeks ago:

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=283151&postcount=129

Got the rally we expected back then so the count was pretty good. Blue and pink wave C's are at the later stages of their legs and should terminate at the 5800-5900 level unless we had a completion yesterday at 5740pts. Either way we are getting close to the termination of a Medium Term Cycle I estimate between 5-9th May.

Short term(1 Hr Cycles Chart) looks like we will pullback, but I feel prices still needs to reach a higher level relative to the Nominal level(blue line) on the 4hr and 8Hr Cycles Charts

Cheers

 

[wavepicker]

Just thought I would update the EW chart posted a few weeks ago:

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=283151&postcount=129

Got the rally we expected back then so the count was pretty good. Blue and pink wave C's are at the later stages of their legs and should terminate at the 5800-5900 level unless we had a completion yesterday at 5740pts. Either way we are getting close to the termination of a Medium Term Cycle I estimate between 5-9th May.

Short term(1 Hr Cycles Chart) looks like we will pullback, but I feel prices still needs to reach a higher level relative to the Nominal level(blue line) on the 4hr and 8Hr Cycles Charts

Cheers

Following the EW and Cycles Multi Time frame analysis in th last post, market pretty much playing ball with my thoughts both on the short term (1Hr Chart) and longer term (8 Hr charts)
We expected some short term weakness( as seen in the cycles charts in the last post) and then a continuation to the 5800-5900 range and I would say just eyeballing it perhaps approx 5850 might be close.

Still expecting market to rally into the target time zone of 5-9th May and then reversel of some type.

Cheers

 

[CamKawa]

It will be interesting to see how the market pans out. I follow this thread with great interest.

 

[wavepicker]

It will be interesting to see how the market pans out. I follow this thread with great interest.

Thanks Camkawa,

That forecast from weeks ago was for a peak between May 5th and May 9th. The level was between 5800-5900. I believe we may have had that turn today but too early to call. If not then prices will run up one more leg before topping out. Either way, the Cycles work has been pretty accurate in the short term swingover the last few weeks.

The fundemental addicts have been out with the knives both in the Gold Thread and the Oil Thread. They are unable to give both approximate price and time targets. So if this works out OK it will be a thumbs up for the TA people at this juncture. Even if it does not, simply being on the right side of the swing trade trend for most of the time is enough, and what my goal is.

Something the the funnymental addicts struggle to do at the best of times.

Cheers

 

[ah13]

terms peak? Have discussed the possibilities for Gold in the "Where Is Gold Heading Thread"

STO is an oil stock that I keep an eye on quite a bit. The monthly EW chart shows the possibility of a long term completing impulse, which is my Number 1 count. Red wave 5 appears to be a developing Ending Diagonal which if true might be very bearish.

Zooming into the daily chart one can see that wave 1(green) is the longest wave followed by wave 3(green) and wave 5(green) as well as overlap between waves 1 and 4 identifying the pattern together with 2 converging trendlines. The key to the pattern is the length of wave 5, it needs to remain shorter or at the most equal in length than wave 3. Therefore an upward break of $17.14 would invalidate the pattern and something else is happening. However I suspect the pattern is now complete and I am looking at possible short poistions on a retest of the high.

Wavepicker
Would be interested in your current view of STO now that $17.14 has been decisively cleared.
Thanks

 

[MARKETWAVES]

Aud/Usd
( Short-Term Wavecount )

Here is a look at what may be occurring .......

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Only a Probability, ..................Not Cast in Stone !

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[potato]

I like this thread so just to keep it alive heres a chart of BHP.
Expanding flat? What do u guys think?

 

[soso]

Hello everyone,

I'm an EW beginner and would like to have the opinion of accomplished EW users (wavepicker, nick, porper, anyone else) on the weekly chart of Euro.

There are 2 things to about that chart:
1) The 2004-2005 move it stands out as a 5 wave move. But looking at the long term trend it is clearly a correction of the bull trend. I have a difficult time accepting any other count since a 5 wave stands out so well. How would you count it?

2) The bull move since 2005 bottom I can't see any clear count, a long series of hh & hl that would be dangerous to fade. Would you count it? If yes, how?

Thanks!