The Elliott Wave Analysis Thread

[Kauri]

No idea where she is headed.. could have completed a WC and be resuming an uptrend, just as easily could be in a W1-W2 of a deeper WC.. also my very simple count be complete rubbish.. ..
The two time routines point to a period around the middle of January being significant.. possibly.. but as most of the indicated time points are around a week or so apart I guess that if I give them a couple of days leeway either side I can claim ... well...something???
Cheers and a happy and prosperous year to all
.......Kauri

 

[Boggo]

Great and detailed analysis wavepicker.

Thanks for that, adds to the area that I am learning at the moment, ie. subdivisions of a 5 wave trend.

Mike

 

[CFD]

Hi Wavepicker,
Looks like you were bang on the money with ANZ, amazes me how often you are correct with these things!

Keep up the good work, and thanks for sharing.

What he said, and have a health and happy new year. (I think you've got prosperous in the bag.)

 

[treefrog]

hi wavepicker and other EWers,

great charts WP

I have interest only in EW and have not traded it but use a lot of fibonachi.

In the first chart in post #93

referring to the ascending wedge to "finish" the current LT bull run - ie the main Wave 5:
.......the first wave in this wedge lifts ~750
.......so w3 needs to be > 750 and could not be the w3 shown as this is too short???
.......and if w3 must be >750 we get the possibi;ity that last main W5 could run as high as 8000 and still not exceed the main W3??

what am i missing??

 

[wavepicker]

hi wavepicker and other EWers,

great charts WP

I have interest only in EW and have not traded it but use a lot of fibonachi.

In the first chart in post #93

referring to the ascending wedge to "finish" the current LT bull run - ie the main Wave 5:
.......the first wave in this wedge lifts ~750
.......so w3 needs to be > 750 and could not be the w3 shown as this is too short???
.......and if w3 must be >750 we get the possibi;ity that last main W5 could run as high as 8000 and still not exceed the main W3??

what am i missing??

Hello treefrog,

The rules of Elliott state that wave 3 must NEVER be the shortest wave in an impulse. Now this does not mean it necessarily has to be the longest although in the Stock market third waves are usually the longest out of waves 1,3, and 5.

In this instance we have an Ending Diagonal pattern(wedge), and in these structures wave 1 is almost always longest. Knowing this piece of information alone we now know that wave 3 must be equal shorter or shorter in price magnitude and probably time than wave 1. Another combination is that wave 3 = wave 1 and wave 5 extends(or makes a throwever above the upper converging trendline). Or yet another wave 3 =wave 1 and wave 5 is shorter than both. Quite often these waves are related to each other by 0.618


Wave 3 could also end up being in similar length or only slightly longer than wave 5. Remember the rule: wave 3 CANNOT be the shortest.

Ending Diagonal wave structures are 3’s and wave 4 overlaps the top of wave 1. They are distribution type patterns, and such patterns IMO the weaker hands continue to do the buying and the smarter money has been slowly unloading.
The index continues to rise because there is still enough $$ coming in to push the averages up, but from fewer stocks(i.e. market breadth has diminished) as such upside is limited.
They occur because the preceding wave has moved to far and too fast.

It takes a while to recognize these and get very familiar with them, but the perseverance is well worth it IMO. They offer some of the fastest and good RR trades around.

I should also stress that the I posted 2 charts in post #93 because I am not sure which one will play out. I favour the second scenario more than the first, but cannot dismiss scenario 1. remember, let the market prove, disprove your analysis.

It’s not too necessary to place too much emphasis on the ratio analysis(fibs). I like to identify the EW pattern(wave structure), pattern of trend first as my foundation or guide to what the market is doing. The pattern is the keyThe price targets I mentioned are a guide only, the market can rise only a couple of hundred points to a price below the previous high and then the pattern may complete. We will have to monitor it and see what other clues it gives us as it traces out. There is no EW requirement that says we make a new high, although I would be confident of the pattern if it does. My time cycle are pointing to the culmination of many cycles of varying degrees of trend coming together between 10/01/08 until late March that coincide with this Ending Diagonal. Now just because the cycles points are peaking in that time window, does not mean we make a new high, but it would be nice to see the price high topout at the same time as the cycle point peaks!!

I think this will be a very exciting time in the market, and commodities in particular this year will do it real hard.

The buy and holders who don’t know how to take a profit will be have a tough year IMO

 

[treefrog]

Hello treefrog,


I think this will be a very exciting time in the market, and commodities in particular this year will do it real hard.

The buy and holders who don’t know how to take a profit will be have a tough year IMO

ta muchly for the detailed response

agree indications make your conclusions (quoted) likely - a rough year!

 

[chops_a_must]

Thought I'd put up a couple I've been mulling over for a while. Criticise at your leisure, or whatever.

First one is CSL. It's either completed a full 5 waves, or a V of a wave 3. I'd favour a full 5 waves, as it doesn't do so good when the yanks aren't. One thing that makes it difficult to analyse, is the probability of a not so obvious W4, given the lengthy W2 (as far as my understanding goes). But it is starting to chop like it hasn't before, and came within a whisker of a W5 breakout target. It also looks as if there is one of those reverse triangles forming which don't appear to be too good either.


Next one is WES. Looks to have completed a full 5 waves with a very weak wave 3 and 5. Although the W5 could have been augmented by future potential dilution regarding coles. I can't see how the coles sentiment is going to help them, with them years away from turning it around. Hence I'm guestimating it is ending a W5.

And not to be a total bear, the last one is COH. Looks to me to be forming, or in a W4. Some of these health related stocks do ok in rough times apparently. So, this is one that I'll look go long in. May take a while to pan out however. But as a longish term trade, with a very high R/R potential, I'm prepared to wait. I'll be looking to buy just under $70 I would say.

Cheers,
Chops.

 

[Magdoran]

Thought I'd put up a couple I've been mulling over for a while. Criticise at your leisure, or whatever.

First one is CSL. It's either completed a full 5 waves, or a V of a wave 3. I'd favour a full 5 waves, as it doesn't do so good when the yanks aren't. One thing that makes it difficult to analyse, is the probability of a not so obvious W4, given the lengthy W2 (as far as my understanding goes). But it is starting to chop like it hasn't before, and came within a whisker of a W5 breakout target. It also looks as if there is one of those reverse triangles forming which don't appear to be too good either.


Next one is WES. Looks to have completed a full 5 waves with a very weak wave 3 and 5. Although the W5 could have been augmented by future potential dilution regarding coles. I can't see how the coles sentiment is going to help them, with them years away from turning it around. Hence I'm guestimating it is ending a W5.

And not to be a total bear, the last one is COH. Looks to me to be forming, or in a W4. Some of these health related stocks do ok in rough times apparently. So, this is one that I'll look go long in. May take a while to pan out however. But as a longish term trade, with a very high R/R potential, I'm prepared to wait. I'll be looking to buy just under $70 I would say.

Cheers,
Chops.

Hello Chops,

Good to see you are studiously looking at charts, and sharing your observations for discussion. That's the best way to learn technical analysis in my experience. Trial and error, reflection and constantly attempting to interpret charts is necessary in my view to build a capability to effectively recognize patterns.

wavepicker makes a key point that it is the pattern first and foremost that should be understood, and all the rest of the analysis follows from that, including time and price, and wave structure.

So, here's something for you to think about. Looking at your charts tells me you're focusing on wave structure right now. Great, it's part of the puzzle, but be careful not to impose a wave structure on the chart – a common malady especially for newer players.

Try looking at and mastering the “pattern of trend” first, rather than focusing on wave structure (see Bill McLaren's work on this – both wavepicker and I found this very powerful as a foundation). The common problem I find is that looking purely at wave structure (alone), can offer a raft of possibilities, and it is often difficult to filter out the lower probability wave structures from the high probability ones.

Using complementary techniques allows you to rapidly select the highest probability wave structures, and discard a host of unlikely counts.

Recognising the pattern of trend is helpful since you are looking at the pattern first, and then using this understanding to frame your wave structure analysis, and not the other way. In my view by learning to do this right from the start accelerates the learning process by years – literally years.

I think that focusing on wave structure first without an understanding of the pattern is like putting the cart before the horse. It makes it very difficult to recognize a whole cadre of clues that will make analysing charts much more effective.

Wave structure in my view is also just one piece of the puzzle, and is sometimes not always the best approach to use as the primary basis for analysis - although it can be a significant component – the art is in knowing how and when to use it, and in what proportion – take note of wavepicker's perspectives on this.

Of course this is just my perspective, and you may choose to accept it wholly or in part, or even reject it outright. That's up to you. At least if you consider this perspective, this should I hope help to clarify the importance of understanding what you are doing as a student of the markets, and be conscious of your choices. (Which I suspect you may only be partly aware of currently – hence I hope this perspective offers some food for thought behind the obvious process, and start to look at the cognitive process involved in chart analysis).

Here's another tip. Try using straight volume on the chart. This is actually a significant part of the clue if you know what to look for in relation to the pattern.

Good luck chops, and good to see you putting in so much effort into technical analysis.


Kind Regards


Magdoran

 

[Boggo]

BLT Chart

Bought this as a day trade at 16c on the re-open at midday, watched as it ran up with 1 minute chart, was about to bail out when it turned down at 25c but saw a possible wave 4 form at the turn up at 22c.
Assumed the wave 5 might be the about the same as wave 1 and not longer than wave 3, placed sell at 29c. Luv it.

Mike

 

[Edwood]

have seen the odd chart around showing the recent moves down on several global indices (Dow, FTSE, Dax) as an a-b-c into a wave 4 low, which tested wave 4 of the June 2006 correction. In other words we could now be in wave 1 for the next impulse higher. Counts valid while the recent lows hold on an EOD basis - any comments?

 

[Porper]

have seen the odd chart around showing the recent moves down on several global indices (Dow, FTSE, Dax) as an a-b-c into a wave 4 low, which tested wave 4 of the June 2006 correction. In other words we could now be in wave 1 for the next impulse higher. Counts valid while the recent lows hold on an EOD basis - any comments?

I posted this on another site last night, the count isn't clean, but the nearest I could get to a valid count.

Notice how the Dow bounced away from the previous high in 2000 before the tech crash.Maybe, coincidence, maybe not.

Yes wave C does finish around the wave 4 low, but and it is a big but...........we only have 3 waves coming down, we need 5 for a wave C, so we may see a push higher and then the wave 5 to complete.

It's also possible that we will plummet into the abyth of course.

 

[wavepicker]

For those intrested in Elliott waves the following chart I posted back in October last year. It was my most objective highest probability wave count for the DJIA in the following thread.

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=209705&postcount=510

The rest is history (see the chart below). Hindsight is a beautiful thing but if one has confidence in EW and the following charts it could save one lot's of $$ as well as make a bundle on the downside.

In this case the wave structure and wave count were there, timing the exact peak was much more a challenge and proved to be difficult being out by up to 3 weeks. Nevertheless there is much merit in EW analysis if one know how to use it to their advantage.


The other link below was post of a forecast made using FFT Cycles Analysis from the Foundation Of the Study Of Cycles using their software Tehsignal. it was made last September. Looks like there maybe some merit in Cyclic Analysis studies in combination with EW

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=198039&postcount=1438


Good Trading to all

 

[tech/a]

Of all the forms of analysis I have studied Time and again E/W proves to me at least that it is well worth the time to understand and apply,In medium term analysis.

The very long term 20 yrs + doesn't seem that accurate.
Combination with other analysis can prove very beneficial.

Love your work Waves.

 

[wavepicker]

Of all the forms of analysis I have studied Time and again E/W proves to me at least that it is well worth the time to understand and apply,In medium term analysis.

The very long term 20 yrs + doesn't seem that accurate.
Combination with other analysis can prove very beneficial.

Love your work Waves.

Thanks Tech,

The DJIA chart was actually quite easy, the All Ords EW count was much more elusive, and actually expected one leg higher(but not necessarily to new highs), as such caught us by surprise.

On many occasions one can come very close to counting an impulse and be out be just one last wave. That is why it's important to do the wave analysis as objectively as possible and take as many possibilities/probabilities into consideration!!

Cheers

 

[lioness]

Thanks Tech,

The DJIA chart was actually quite easy, the All Ords EW count was much more elusive, and actually expected one leg higher(but not necessarily to new highs), as such caught us by surprise.

On many occasions one can come very close to counting an impulse and be out be just one last wave. That is why it's important to do the wave analysis as objectively as possible and take as many possibilities/probabilities into consideration!!

Cheers

Wavepicker, I have been following you and appreciate the input here. Can you provide a clear and concisive view of the next move and timeframe and targets.

I wont hold it to you.

 

[wavepicker]

This is a quick analysis in LLC. Like most other bluechips I have looked at( and indexes), the 11th March seems to keep cropping up. Ofcourse it might be minor(I do have another alternate turn date for a high for the 21st March) Both are strong possibilities but I like 11th March at present because it seems to be everywhere I look.

LLC recently completed 5 waves down along with the broader market. Have attached a chart with how common market symmetry is in terms of fibonacci symmetrical triangles. This gives much clues to possible future highs and lows, especially when they line up with fixed cycle points. For now would expect LLC to countertrend rally along with the rest of the market.

Cheers

 

[MARKETWAVES]

For those intrested in Elliott waves the following chart I posted back in October last year. It was my most objective highest probability wave count for the DJIA in the following thread.

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=209705&postcount=510

The rest is history (see the chart below). Hindsight is a beautiful thing but if one has confidence in EW and the following charts it could save one lot's of $$ as well as make a bundle on the downside.

In this case the wave structure and wave count were there, timing the exact peak was much more a challenge and proved to be difficult being out by up to 3 weeks. Nevertheless there is much merit in EW analysis if one know how to use it to their advantage.


Good Trading to all

Congrats , to you ////////......... Wavepicker
---------------------------------------------------
Now See this Viedo Here :
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Bob Pretcher , Ceo
ELLIOTT WAVES INTERNATIONAL
-------------------------------------
Bloomberg Tv - INTERVIEW

Click Here
http://youtube.com/watch?v=WJnMia2rARI

--------------------------------------------------

 

[Porper]

Does anybody subscribe to Pretchers Elliot Wave international, I have heard he has made a lot of forcasts that were way out, basically predicting a crash any time now for the past 5 years.

I suppose eventually he will be right and be a legend .

Good call Wavepicker, amazing how many people projecting Time Cycles have early to mid March as some turning point.

I don't know if anybody else has noticed but a lot of stocks appear to be consolidating at previous support levels.This of course could be positive or negative so of little benefit but worth noting.

 

[wavepicker]

Does anybody subscribe to Pretchers Elliot Wave international, I have heard he has made a lot of forcasts that were way out, basically predicting a crash any time now for the past 5 years.

I suppose eventually he will be right and be a legend .

Good call Wavepicker, amazing how many people projecting Time Cycles have early to mid March as some turning point.

I don't know if anybody else has noticed but a lot of stocks appear to be consolidating at previous support levels.This of course could be positive or negative so of little benefit but worth noting.

Hello Pete,

Prechter is a legend in my eyes. He has made some absolutely extroadinary calls ove the last 30 years and also won the 1984 US Trading Championships(using real $$) with a 444% gain in a few months, breaking the record at that time. Even to this day he still makes some amazing calls. Where his reputuation got tarnished was for a forecast for a crash in 1995/6 and it actually came 2000. Again since 2003. These were long term forecasts, which are very very hard to make IMO, especially using TA.

His became a big name after predicting the Bull market of the 80's back in 1978, and then the crash of 87 one week before it happened. Also picking the peak in Gold in 1980 almost to the day as well as the low in Feb 2001 amonsgt other things.

I am still subscribed to the Elliott Wave Theorist(Prechters newsletter), but not EWI's other services which are done by Prechters staff, which IMO are not in Precheter league apart from Jeff Kennedy.

Just on time cycles. I posted an analsysis in the XAO Analsysis thread a few weeks ago. This was pointing for the market to climb to 6244pts for a peak on 10/11th March.

Since then I have discovered that the "spacing" of the vertical lines of my last cycle was out by 5 bars(too short) for the Fixed Time Cycles analysis on the daily chart. (The last 2 vertical lines). As such where I was looking for mid March for a high, it should actually be 20/25th March approximately.

I have not altered the 10/11th March as turn date. But I have added another as an alternate(which I made mention of in that post) of 21st March. They are the 2 key dates. I am favouring 10/11th March at present because it seems to be cropping up almost everywhere I look, but also keep 21st March on the radar as well.

Now why favour 11th March when the cycles are saying approximately 25th March you may ask? The answer is simple, you asked me back then, are the cycles not expanding and contracting continuously? The answer is YES.
This is a what happens. In an uptrend the highs usually come 5-8 bars later than expected, and the countertrends 5-8 bars earlier than expected.
In a downtrend, it's the other way around.(The lows come late and upward rallies come early.)

So, the low we just had yesterday, I was expecting to have happened early last week. It came late because the larger trend s now down. The next high then, is expected to come 25th March approx, but because the larger trend is now down the rallies tend to complete earlier than expected by 5-8 bars. Thus will stick with the 11th March for now.

Will posted some new charts in XAO Analsysis thread at a later stage.

Cheers

 

[Porper]

Hello Pete,

Prechter is a legend in my eyes. He has made some absolutely extroadinary calls ove the last 30 years and also won the 1984 US Trading Championships(using real $$) with a 444% gain in a few months, breaking the record at that time. Even to this day he still makes some amazing calls. Where his reputuation got tarnished was for a forecast for a crash in 1995/6 and it actually came 2000. Again since 2003. These were long term forecasts, which are very very hard to make IMO, especially using TA.

His became a big name after predicting the Bull market of the 80's back in 1978, and then the crash of 87 one week before it happened. Also picking the peak in Gold in 1980 almost to the day as well as the low in Feb 2001 amonsgt other things.

I am still subscribed to the Elliott Wave Theorist(Prechters newsletter), but not EWI's other services which are done by Prechters staff, which IMO are not in Precheter league apart from Jeff Kennedy.

Just on time cycles. I posted an analsysis in the XAO Analsysis thread a few weeks ago. This was pointing for the market to climb to 6244pts for a peak on 10/11th March.

Since then I have discovered that the "spacing" of the vertical lines of my last cycle was out by 5 bars(too short) for the Fixed Time Cycles analysis on the daily chart. (The last 2 vertical lines). As such where I was looking for mid March for a high, it should actually be 20/25th March approximately.

I have not altered the 10/11th March as turn date. But I have added another as an alternate(which I made mention of in that post) of 21st March. They are the 2 key dates. I am favouring 10/11th March at present because it seems to be cropping up almost everywhere I look, but also keep 21st March on the radar as well.

Now why favour 11th March when the cycles are saying approximately 25th March you may ask? The answer is simple, you asked me back then, are the cycles not expanding and contracting continuously? The answer is YES.
This is a what happens. In an uptrend the highs usually come 5-8 bars later than expected, and the countertrends 5-8 bars earlier than expected.
In a downtrend, it's the other way around.(The lows come late and upward rallies come early.)

So, the low we just had yesterday, I was expecting to have happened early last week. It came late because the larger trend s now down. The next high then, is expected to come 25th March approx, but because the larger trend is now down the rallies tend to complete earlier than expected by 5-8 bars. Thus will stick with the 11th March for now.

Will posted some new charts in XAO Analsysis thread at a later stage.

Cheers

Good to hear your views Waves, gives a good balance between the bad things you hear and the good.I have read some articles from Kennedy, seems to know his stuff, I think most of Pretchers work is pay only so will have to have a think about this.

Interesting to hear about the fixed time cycles and how they move within trends, didn't know that.Look forward to your XAO charts as then I have something to compare against, see where I am at.A Lot to learn but worth the effort for anybody i.m.o.

As a side note I am pretty sure that Robert Miner won the trading championships a while back, as you know he is heavily into Elliot and Fib, it would seem that this feat is no coincidence