The Elliott Wave Analysis Thread

[minwa]

Some interesting info I came across on EW and Gann:

Quote from an interview in Traders Mag by Larry Williams -
"I am not wild about the technical stuff. I believe that most of it is not useful and some of it actually fraud - like Gann and Elliott."


At a trading conference, Alexander Elder made it a point to mention that R.N. Elliott died a relatively poor man.

Alex Elder also had a few words to say about Gann. Apparently, Elder met with Gann's son, who said that his father had been unable to support his family by trading. Instead, Gann earned his living by writing and selling instructional courses.

From Hulbert's Financial Digest, November 2003, for the Elliott Wave Theorist (Prechter's newsletter): "The HFD reports a 19.1% annualized loss from the beginning of 1985 through 10/31/03 for a portfolio that went long or short in hypothetical shares of the Wilshire on this letter’s advice for traders, and otherwise earned the T-Bill rate. Buying and holding, in contrast, gained 12.7% annualized." You will notice that Prechter's website does not contain this kind of performance data.

 

[Porper]

From Hulbert's Financial Digest, November 2003, for the Elliott Wave Theorist (Prechter's newsletter): "The HFD reports a 19.1% annualized loss from the beginning of 1985 through 10/31/03 for a portfolio that went long or short in hypothetical shares of the Wilshire on this letter’s advice for traders, and otherwise earned the T-Bill rate. Buying and holding, in contrast, gained 12.7% annualized." You will notice that Prechter's website does not contain this kind of performance data.

Although Prechter brought The Wave Theory back to life he hasn't done it any favours over the years. Problem is he makes a call and will never admit to being wrong. He's called DOW to 500 - 1000 for donkey's years...and still is calling it to make those lows. No credibility...and I use Elliott Wave a lot.

As for Elliott himself, he was well-off until he was taken ill and couldn't work anymore. I don't think he was exactly poor when he died from what I can remember reading; and I have read all his books I can lay my hands on.

 

[rimtas]

Guys, don't be ridiculous about Elliot and Prechter. If you know how Formula 1 car is build and how to operate it, this doesn't mean that you will win the race, or that you will reach at least the end of first lap without a crash.
Trading and analysing markets are two different things.
Trading involves a battle with yourself once you in a trade but analysing markets is much easier if you don't put your money on the table.

Saying that Elliot died poor doesn't prove anything. Probably he just hadn't his balls tough enough to press the buy button and spend his life just sitting near the screen(o tape at that time) and wondering what a beautiful beast the market is.

And Prechter is not a trader. He is a remarkable mind when it comes to understanding and pointing ties between the market and the rest of the society. He just started a Socionomic Institute, a new revolutionary science of human social behaviour and I believe it has a good future because it is joined by most smartest scientists on the planet and they are growing rapidly. A few universities even offer a degree in Socionomics which proves that EW is starting to gain more solid ground.
What we need is that an old generation of economic theories will die along with these old economists and step by step a new understanding of human social behaviour will take over in a years to come. Forecasting markets using economic and fundamental reasoning is wrong, those two things doesn't relate one to each other.
Markets do not operate like most of people think, they have their own life and they gave a **** on the company results, fundamentals factors or natural and man made disasters. It is just our neocortex wants to find a tie between market movements and news as it seems logical. There is no logic there, only animal spirits.

 

[rimtas]

And by the way, a few words about Hulberts Financial Digest-they ranked Prechters newsletter as having the bad performance, but the truth is that Prechter does not give trading recommendations, so these guys just making their own assumptions...
What Financial Digest actually missed is that Elliot Wave International is the worlds largest market forecasting firm, beating in its revenues such giants like Goldman Sacs , JP Morgan and other financial institutions who also provide forecasting services. People do not pay money for a scam, and for decades. There is something truly good in there about markets.

I was a subscriber also, but now I am so good at EW that I do not need expert's advice anymore how to interpret waves. Though from time to time I still buy something from them as they have extremely good information that you couldn't get anywhere else, or even if you can, you will spend hours on the net just to look for it and then summarising and applying to markets. Why waste your time if you can get it in a minute for 20 bucks.

 

[Porper]

the truth is that Prechter does not give trading recommendations.

Rubbish. When I was a subscriber, probably 3 or 4 years ago he said go short the DOW 200%!! Great call. He has been saying go short ever since. I.M.O he gives Elliott a bad name.

I was a subscriber also, but now I am so good at EW that I do not need expert's advice anymore how to interpret waves.

Nothing I can say to that...except you lack confidence