Thought I'd put up a couple I've been mulling over for a while. Criticise at your leisure, or whatever.
First one is CSL. It's either completed a full 5 waves, or a V of a wave 3. I'd favour a full 5 waves, as it doesn't do so good when the yanks aren't. One thing that makes it difficult to analyse, is the probability of a not so obvious W4, given the lengthy W2 (as far as my understanding goes). But it is starting to chop like it hasn't before, and came within a whisker of a W5 breakout target. It also looks as if there is one of those reverse triangles forming which don't appear to be too good either.
Next one is WES. Looks to have completed a full 5 waves with a very weak wave 3 and 5. Although the W5 could have been augmented by future potential dilution regarding coles. I can't see how the coles sentiment is going to help them, with them years away from turning it around. Hence I'm guestimating it is ending a W5.
And not to be a total bear, the last one is COH. Looks to me to be forming, or in a W4. Some of these health related stocks do ok in rough times apparently. So, this is one that I'll look go long in. May take a while to pan out however. But as a longish term trade, with a very high R/R potential, I'm prepared to wait. I'll be looking to buy just under $70 I would say.
Cheers,
Chops.
Hello Chops,
Good to see you are studiously looking at charts, and sharing your observations for discussion. That's the best way to learn technical analysis in my experience. Trial and error, reflection and constantly attempting to interpret charts is necessary in my view to build a capability to effectively recognize patterns.
wavepicker makes a key point that it is the pattern first and foremost that should be understood, and all the rest of the analysis follows from that, including time and price, and wave structure.
So, here's something for you to think about. Looking at your charts tells me you're focusing on wave structure right now. Great, it's part of the puzzle, but be careful not to impose a wave structure on the chart – a common malady especially for newer players.
Try looking at and mastering the “pattern of trend” first, rather than focusing on wave structure (see Bill McLaren's work on this – both wavepicker and I found this very powerful as a foundation). The common problem I find is that looking purely at wave structure (alone), can offer a raft of possibilities, and it is often difficult to filter out the lower probability wave structures from the high probability ones.
Using complementary techniques allows you to rapidly select the highest probability wave structures, and discard a host of unlikely counts.
Recognising the pattern of trend is helpful since you are looking at the pattern first, and then using this understanding to frame your wave structure analysis, and not the other way. In my view by learning to do this right from the start accelerates the learning process by years – literally years.
I think that focusing on wave structure first without an understanding of the pattern is like putting the cart before the horse. It makes it very difficult to recognize a whole cadre of clues that will make analysing charts much more effective.
Wave structure in my view is also just one piece of the puzzle, and is sometimes not always the best approach to use as the primary basis for analysis - although it can be a significant component – the art is in knowing how and when to use it, and in what proportion – take note of wavepicker's perspectives on this.
Of course this is just my perspective, and you may choose to accept it wholly or in part, or even reject it outright. That's up to you. At least if you consider this perspective, this should I hope help to clarify the importance of understanding what you are doing as a student of the markets, and be conscious of your choices. (Which I suspect you may only be partly aware of currently – hence I hope this perspective offers some food for thought behind the obvious process, and start to look at the cognitive process involved in chart analysis).
Here's another tip. Try using straight volume on the chart. This is actually a significant part of the clue if you know what to look for in relation to the pattern.
Good luck chops, and good to see you putting in so much effort into technical analysis.
Kind Regards
Magdoran