The Elliott Wave Analysis Thread

[wavepicker]

Its not a contest on how long yours is to mine Frank. I'm only interested in my account balance increasing. Elliott Wave allows me to achieve that goal with comfort and that, my friend, is the all that counts.

Very well said Nick.

It's all about what works for you, whether that be EW, Gann, or even the swing charts, whatever… There is no right or wrong way and the best measure is how much $$ lines your hip pocket at the end of the year

Every methodology has advantages and disadvantages. I personally not only use EW but also combine it with a host of other methodologies some of which is my own IP.


Frank,

Just because you were not successful with using EW in the 2 years you spent on it, it does not mean that no one else can be. I have been looking at it for 10 years( and I was not profitable with it until after 4 years) and I am still learning more every day. Now you may not have much of an idea what all the abc’s are all about but to this day I and most others have little idea what you are talking about with the AMT methodology. To me it resembles some sort of Swing Chart analysis.

What you are trying to demonstrate with ANZ is that 5 different EW opinions will produce 5 different wave counts. In other words EW is subjective.

Well EW IS subjective Frank, and you will get 5 different counts. BUT most other forms of analysis is subjective as well.

As 5 different opinions of any other methodology will most likely see 5 different answers!!

That goes for:

-Trend followers
-Fundamental analysis
-Gann Analysis
-Lagging Indicator Analysis


Just about everything


What you have to understand is that the systems/methods don’t fail, but the people using them can. Some people can use a method and continually be profitable and others can use the same method and not.

Clearly it has very little to with methodology but the mindset of the trader which is the most important aspect.

BTW Re shorting financials, I made my best ever short trade on a financial stock in June 2002 (CBA fell from $35 to 23)

Cheers

 

[CanOz]

You know what is amazing about this forum, is that people can show thier 'edge'. An edge that works for one trader may not work for another, and more importantly you need to believe in your edge, not someone else's.

I find Frank's edge for index's very interesting, but prefer Nick's combination of EW, VSA, and seasonality as an edge that i can learn and use. I'm not into Wave's EW and time, but thats ok, i'm still interested in it though.

My point is that it is a shame we all can't appreciate and respect the wealth of information on display here. I sure do.

Thanks Waves, Frank, and Nick for sharing your some of your edge's with us.

Cheers,

 

[wavepicker]

You know what is amazing about this forum, is that people can show thier 'edge'. An edge that works for one trader may not work for another, and more importantly you need to believe in your edge, not someone else's.

I find Frank's edge for index's very interesting, but prefer Nick's combination of EW, VSA, and seasonality as an edge that i can learn and use. I'm not into Wave's EW and time, but thats ok, i'm still interested in it though.

My point is that it is a shame we all can't appreciate and respect the wealth of information on display here. I sure do.

Thanks Waves, Frank, and Nick for sharing your some of your edge's with us.

Cheers,

No probs Can happy to do and help where I can.

Just bear in mind however, I am part time trader just like you and other posters here, expressing my musings via the EW charts. I am not here to promote any books, courses, methodology, or anything else.

Re my style of EW and Time analysis. I generally only post EW charts on this forum to share ideas with other posters. Additionally I have helped some posters who are interested with my style of EW(which essentially is the same as Nicks VSA excluded) and actually we have become good friends with them. The only difference is that I like to include the labelling of most of the minutia in the chart for that reason.

My Time Analysis work I don’t post here apart from some dates on occasion because it is something I am still a new at this stage in comparison to Magdoran with whom I am working closely to pioneer this IP for the purposes of our own trading only. Having said that we have done very with the market movements in terms of timing this year.

The type of Timing work which I am looking at is slightly different to what Mag uses(although he too now is investigating it’s merits to see if he can integrate it within his approach as I am the Mclaren approach). It is very closely aligned to EW but in terms of TIME, and is actually easier to work with than EW in terms of price.

We looked at Seasonality years ago and it simply does not cut it for the type of derivatives trading which we undertake(where timing is very important) being way too inconsistent. But that is not to say it may not be beneficial for others.

I too am interested in Nicks VSA, but have not had time to look it just yet, hopefully next year.

All the best


Wavepicker

 

[tech/a]

I'm sympathetic towards Franks veiw.He is not alone. Take a look at reviews on Aget and you'll find much frustration in "Changing" wave counts.Even claims of totally useless.

Around 18 mths ago I came to the realisation that "Changing" wave counts are an intrugal part of Elliot Wave analysis,not a flaw.Infact the dynamic nature of wave counts is to me atleast the strength of the analysis.
You can actually analyse probability of wether the dynamics of a trade are and or will alter or are likely to be finite at a point in time. Like all analysis you'll be right or wrong---but I will add that after looking at 1000s of charts counts patterns and other analysis those that hit you in the face more often than not conform to your analysis.Those learning just wont find this occuring.

Waves has further honed this skill in analysis with the presentation of time analysis and Nick with seasonals and VSA analysis.
Canaussi like myself and a few others have spent a lot of time on Nicks combination (More VSA than seasonals).

Nicks statement that analysis is there to be Proven or Disproven rather than right or wrong rings a very strong accord with me.As does "Im here for profit".

But most importantly there is---Application of analysis.
For me I want to be able to apply analysis in shorter timeframes quickly and with minimum risk and high win rate.Ive found it in my own application of wave analysis and VSA which in many cases will be different to Waves and at times the same.

Does it matter. I think not.
Franks analysis which I've watched and picked up on some of it works well enough for me to think that re visiting Elliot and VSA,possibly time,would,for Frank only add to your bottomline and confidence in your application of any analysis on any instrument.

My one last rule and one Waves has mentioned before is that if it doesnt stand out and hit you then dont try and make it (a trade).
This means that I just let many possible trades (as thought by others) pass by.
No problem there is always another trade and those that hit you hit you because they are meant to.

When you look at as many charts using your analysis you get very good at it.
Waves,Frank,Nick,Myself and Canaussi can atest to that.

 

[Frank D]

WavePicker,

Don’t patronizing me about Elliot Wave, I’m not an idiot.

I stopped using EW because I think it’s a load of bollocks. But that’s one mans opinion.

However, there is 94% of viewers of this thread that want to know more about it, or still trying to figure it out.

Can you personally do me a EW technical view on ‘OIL’ over the long term, medium term and short term with charts, and out of the 11,000 members here, if there are 4 other EW analysts can you spare 1 hour and do the same.

A Simple technical view.

Much appreciated.

Frank

 

[motorway]

A process that unfolds with no self awareness

is a pure S curve

A system with awareness.. So The participants are getting cues from each other..

IS a S curve ... With precursor and overrun features. This could easily be a EW 5 wave cycle ( or it might not ) .. The smooth S is pushed out of shape by positive and negative feed backs which create overbought and oversold of different types ( esp different at the toddler and the geriatric stages of the cycle..Both have unsteady steps but different )

the S curve is the accumulation markup distribution --to a -->bifurcation point, a fork in the road that leads to either re accumulation or markdown...

cycles in cycles

OK

growth cycle without awareness ( bacteria in a petri dish ) S curve
growth cycle with awareness ( liquid mkt beyond manipulation ) some sort of Elliot Wave pattern ( possibly)..

However liquid markets beyond manipulation do not exist except on time scales that are of generations..( eventually everything comes to the end of times )

The next stage up is a market with smart money causing manipulation

In a manipulated market... methodologies only work if it is in someones interest that they work...And they stop working when it is in someones interest that they stop working..

So on practical time scales

What matters is what the smart money is doing
and practically nothing else.....

I take it We all know what a S curve looks like ?
I do not have picture of one I can post...

I think EW has some merit
But when that (rigid ? )wave sequence breaks down
The How and Why is what is important.

Everything is a tool for manipulation either for accumulation, markup, distribution or markdown..

A tool is most useful if the opportunity cost of using it is minimal..

Following the Smart Money has zero opportunity cost...

With correct principles It then is only a matter of skillful application..



Some observations

motorway

 

[Nick Radge]

It is the only methodology that has positive expectation that no other methodology can claim

The above is a quote from your website Frank. Now, you want to talk more about bollocks?

 

[wavepicker]

WavePicker,

Don’t patronizing me about Elliot Wave, I’m not an idiot.

I stopped using EW because I think it’s a load of bollocks. But that’s one mans opinion.

However, there is 94% of viewers of this thread that want to know more about it, or still trying to figure it out.

Can you personally do me a EW technical view on ‘OIL’ over the long term, medium term and short term with charts, and out of the 11,000 members here, if there are 4 other EW analysts can you spare 1 hour and do the same.

A Simple technical view.

Much appreciated.

Frank

Hello Frank,

I am not trying patronize you about EW at all nor do I think you are idiot. In fact I have much respect for the AMT methodology you have been able to put together. I don’t know what ever made you think this. Just bear in I and many of the posters in this forum are not idiots either, everyone has eyes and can see who and what has been consistent on these boards and best suits their needs.

The ones that are interested in EW are doing so because they feel that they can make it work for them like others have. Yet others like you think it’s garbage. That fine, do what works for you Frank.

I will decline on this occasion to do any EW analysis on OIL because

-1/ It’s not a market I trade
-2/ I have posted more than my fair share of charts I this forum already I am sure you would agree

Don’t worry I am sure some EW posters will help you out there. I don’t fully understand why you would be interested in any opinion of an Elliotician if you think EW is a load of “bollocks” anyway. What is your motive here Frank?? Just stick to the AMT method that has served you well.


I also understand and sympathise with your frustration re promoting your fine ideas, but EW, Gann, and most of the other widely known methodologies have been popularized over a number of years and as such have had a wider audience. That is not to say they are better or worse because I believe both T/A and Fundamental Analysis have major flaws.

Regards

Wavepicker

 

[buggalug]

Can you personally do me a EW technical view on ‘OIL’ over the long term, medium term and short term with charts, and out of the 11,000 members here, if there are 4 other EW analysts can you spare 1 hour and do the same.

Frank

Not my counts and I only have very basic EW knowledge so I can't verify their correctness, but something for discussion.

Weekly
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID1606987&cmd=show[s67200088]&disp=P

Daily
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID1606987&cmd=show[s67199593]&disp=P

 

[weird]

Hi Frank

Looking forward to your new book coming out.

I guess if everyone was using the AGET programmed counts (and not manually ploting their own) or using other software then you would have the same analysis posted. However, if you have 5 EW'ers manually plotting their own counts or using different software you may have five different analysis.

I have attempted to program some of the more popular EW strats, and the 'better performing' one in my testing was trying to ride a 'continuation' of the overall trend, and either using a reversal or a continuation pattern to get back on board of the overall trend (after a pullback, and the continuation of a new leg). Counts or even EW aside, to me, your still just hoping to ride the continuation of a trend. This sounds like any other trend trading method.

Although one may argue that because we are using price without restricting it to a simple lookback period which may also include some sort of averaging (noise removal) ... and , for example sake, using a moving average as a comparison, we have an improved trend finding method. Being a superior method, would ofcourse depend of what other trend finding methods we are comparing it , however we ofcourse have not exhausted all other trend and trend strength indicators in the simple comparison above.

ABC corrections are another popular strategy. And the more popular strategies I have seen, also use a reversal pattern before entering a trade, and also using Risk/Reward calculations based on previous support/resistance zones or fibonacci projections.

Frank, from a quick reading of your website, your methodogly appears to be based on patterns, short term cycles, which you have obverved as being repeatable in most market structures, and when traded within a system, has positive expectancy. It is refreshing to see another point of view put forward to the other popular approaches, and again I wish to mention I look forward to reading your new book when it is available.

 

[Frank D]

Nick,

And what do you think that daily system on the SPI is, ( position traders), or my range bar systems for intra-day traders are???

And, my analysis on global markets always has a ‘positive expectation’, based on my trading model.

Charging people $thousands to attend seminars of re-hashed T/A is what I call a load of bullocks.


Wavepicker,

I have no motive. The only motive is trying to teach you and others simpler trading techniques that don’t overload you with subjective trading matter. There are many that don’t want to admit it, but they take chunks out of my articles, and learnt many trading techniques over the years and then use it themselves.

I’ve given and continue to give away much of my information for free, I continue to provide readers with free reports here and in my website. And I do a damn good job of analyzing the markets, much better than most. (I do charge for a premium educational report $60 per month)

I’ll just stick to my own AMT thread, but I will continue to put my view on any thread if I think that any ‘position’ is open to risk, or I think there is a potential trade coming up that everyone can profit by.

Weird,

My personal opinion on EW is it’s an outdated method that was good for it’s time (last century), but it’s lagging, subjective, and haphazard. But if it works for you and others then good.

But you and others can do better.


Frank

 

[wavepicker]

Nick,

And what do you think that daily system on the SPI is, ( position traders), or my range bar systems for intra-day traders are???

And, my analysis on global markets always has a ‘positive expectation’, based on my trading model.

Charging people $thousands to attend seminars of re-hashed T/A is what I call a load of bullocks.


Wavepicker,

I have no motive. The only motive is trying to teach you and others simpler trading techniques that don’t overload you with subjective trading matter. There are many that don’t want to admit it, but they take chunks out of my articles, and learnt many trading techniques over the years and then use it themselves.

I’ve given and continue to give away much of my information for free, I continue to provide readers with free reports here and in my website. And I do a damn good job of analyzing the markets, much better than most. (I do charge for a premium educational report $60 per month)

I’ll just stick to my own AMT thread, but I will continue to put my view on any thread if I think that any ‘position’ is open to risk, or I think there is a potential trade coming up that everyone can profit by.

Weird,

My personal opinion on EW is it’s an outdated method that was good for it’s time (last century), but it’s lagging, subjective, and haphazard. But if it works for you and others then good.

But you and others can do better.


Frank

Hello Frank,

You have done a tremendous amount of work incorporating your ideas into your AMT methodology. I don’t doubt you or your system but have not really looked at it further than to see if it would be of benefit to me.

I am sure the interested parties in the AMT methodology are grateful for the material you have made available here.

In so far as EW or any other method being outdated I am not sure. If the markets have changed so much over the last 50 years then we would not see the same patterns repeating on a daily basis. The same things that propel the markets 100 years are still in play today namely:-

-Hope
-Fear
-Greed

These have not changed in the last 100 years and probably never will.

Yes the AMT model or other methods might be a simpler technique to analyze and trade the market, there is no denying this. EW, Gann and other methods do require quite a bit of commitment and work to understand and apply sometimes years depending on the individual.

Would you say that the AMT method is kinder to use in a trending market? What about in choppy markets? The market we have had in the last 5 years has been great ,but what happens when the party is over and we start seeing more corrective, volatile and messy patterns?? Can one expect the AMT model to help deliver similar results?

Rergards

Wavepicker

 

[motorway]

what happens when the party is over and we start seeing more corrective, volatile and messy patterns?? Can one expect the AMT model to help deliver similar results?

Here correct use of various tools is important

P&F studies ( range bars mentioned are a related type methodology )

Would reveal a lot

P&F Charts would simply stop moving and hence building any potential.
Or give any signals. ( Money not at risk )
Charts that did.. would continually negate their counts and implications.

Except on very large magnitudes or very small

So You would need to be in harmony with the time scale necessary..

BUT

Comparative Relative strength studies

SHOULD have had You concentrating on better prospects..
Where P&F charts did build potentials and fulfil their implications on useful magnitudes and time scales..


No reason EW can not be integrated with P&F
Or any other methodolgy..

And I have seen examples of EW done and combined with P&F.


motorway

 

[potato]

Hey guys im learning EW. What do u guys think of my count on BHP?

 

[MS+Tradesim]

So I've never looked at EW and "Adaptive Analysis" is the first book I've read (still reading) that looks at it. Attached is a chart.....am I understanding the gist? Obviously I know nothing at this stage so would just like to know if I'm at least on the right track. (BTW the 2 point is higher than the starting point for line 1.)

..

 

[palanquin]

DT software...EOD version...
As far as E/W analysis goes strictly speaking it has none, unlike Get it does not attempt to place counts-waves.. it is a whiteboard where you manually do your own counts and place the zig zag.. .

I have just spent a week searching for relevant information and came across your post Kauri. Just wanted to say thanks, although the information was not posted for me, it is proving to be one of the most useful in my search for my direction. Much appreciated.

“It’s not the Destination that counts, it’s the Journey”, but a few wins along the way sure keeps ones spirits up!

 

[wavepicker]

WavePicker,

I stopped using EW because I think it’s a load of bollocks. But that’s one mans opinion.

Frank

Trading Stocks...


I don’t think ANZ is going down as far as some of you think.
So many ABC formations and numbers I get so confused looking at some
of these EW charts posted, and I spent many years with EW in the 90's.


Frank Dilernia

Hey Frank,

A load of bollocks EW might be, but for some it's actually proven quite effective on the short side since you made the above statement regarding ANZ.

Call EW subjective, lagging, not suitable for todays markets, whatever!! On this occasion(and quite a few others in the past) we had a high probability wave count applied correctly, and it's proven to be rewarding to date for those that shorted it.

Just like users of any other methodology, Elliott Wave practioners make mistakes, that also make some stunning trades.

What's most important is the MINDSET of the trader and to pounce on opportunities when they appear, irrespective of what method is used.

All the best

wavepicker

 

[IFocus]

hi Wavepicker

Have you been waiting patiently LOL

What's most important is the MINDSET of the trader and to pounce on opportunities when they appear, irrespective of what method is used.

Your statement is pretty much the holy grail IMHO

I know a trader who used a 13EMA to trade profitably for 6 years or more that I tried to emulate. Try as I did I struggled until a friend pointed out (by accident) her mind set / language when looking at the market since that moment I have never looked back.......

Her success had very little to do with the 13 EMA........

Focus

 

[tech/a]

Elliott Wave practitioners make mistakes,

Not necessarily mistakes with Elliott or any other form of analysis.
Just the analysis is proven or dis proven.

What's most important is the MINDSET of the trader and to pounce on opportunities when they appear, irrespective of what method is used.

Pouncing is fine,what you do after pouncing will determine profitability.

 

[bootross]

Hi guys, sorry for my ignorance, I am new to the Elliot Wave thing.

With the rule for Wave 3, ie Wave 3 is usually the longest but can't be the shortest, by "shortest" we are measuring in terms of price, not time, aren't we?

So (assuming bull market here) if Wave 1 started at $2.00 and went to $3.00, then Wave 3 would have to travel at least $1.00 to be counted as a Wave 3?

Thanks,