US Election Thread

[Smurf1976]

DEI

This one is very relevant to the question of why Trump has the support he has I think.

Progressive politics not too long ago championed the causes of equality and consenting adults along with the traditional support of the working class.

Equality was never supposed to be about preferencing any particular race or gender indeed quite the opposite, it was a call that the merit principle ought be upheld no matter what. That merit should be the only criteria for employing someone, for allocating funds, and so on. That race and gender should not be the basis of decision making.

Consenting adults meant just that. The idea that consenting adults be free to do as they please without government interference in their lives provided that what they are doing causes no impact to any child, animal, the natural environment or adults who did not consent (or who had no realistic choice to say no).

Standing up for the working class and enabling people to improve their life circumstances through employment was traditionally the other core pillar of progressives.

Those points underpinned progressive policies from removing workplace gender requirements through to public health campaigns to unions demanding better pay and safer conditions through to issues such as gay marriage. All based on those core pillars.

In 2024 however progressive politics has drifted a long way from those principles, now advocating the opposite approach on an assortment of issues. As a result we have a situation of those who historically supported the progressive view finding themselves as refugees of a sort, people who don't fundamentally support conservative politics but who can't continue to support a progressive movement that's become radically different from the one they once enthusiastically supported.

That's where Trump's drawing support from in my view. People who aren't conservatives but they've been abandoned by progressives so they go to the only other show in town.

 

[wayneL]

This one is very relevant to the question of why Trump has the support he has I think.

Progressive politics not too long ago championed the causes of equality and consenting adults along with the traditional support of the working class.

Equality was never supposed to be about preferencing any particular race or gender indeed quite the opposite, it was a call that the merit principle ought be upheld no matter what. That merit should be the only criteria for employing someone, for allocating funds, and so on. That race and gender should not be the basis of decision making.

Consenting adults meant just that. The idea that consenting adults be free to do as they please without government interference in their lives provided that what they are doing causes no impact to any child, animal, the natural environment or adults who did not consent (or who had no realistic choice to say no).

Standing up for the working class and enabling people to improve their life circumstances through employment was traditionally the other core pillar of progressives.

Those points underpinned progressive policies from removing workplace gender requirements through to public health campaigns to unions demanding better pay and safer conditions through to issues such as gay marriage. All based on those core pillars.

In 2024 however progressive politics has drifted a long way from those principles, now advocating the opposite approach on an assortment of issues. As a result we have a situation of those who historically supported the progressive view finding themselves as refugees of a sort, people who don't fundamentally support conservative politics but who can't continue to support a progressive movement that's become radically different from the one they once enthusiastically supported.

That's where Trump's drawing support from in my view. People who aren't conservatives but they've been abandoned by progressives so they go to the only other show in town.

IMO democrats missed a truly meritocratic pick in Tulsi Gabbard.

Personal opinion, I would have flipped parties for her (if I actually had vote), but the party machine f***ed her over. In favour of the dementia patient and the retard in lieu of having to give head jobs.

 

[Tisme]

Polymarket - 2024 Presidential Election Predictions

2024 Presidential Election Predictions. Trust markets, not presidential polls. Live and accurate forecasts by the world's largest prediction market.

polymarket.com

 

[moXJO]

Market thinks Trump has a shot.

 

[DB008]

Kamala just pretended to call a voter but then accidentally showed her screen, she was on the camera app

 

[DB008]

 

[mullokintyre]

Things looking far more positive for the republicans.
Especially in the senate, where they were always in the box seat due to having only 11 senators up for relection versus 19 for the democrats.
As the count goes on, the rural areas seem to come in later, and favour the GOP heavily.
At about 9% of the vote, Ted Cruz was miles behind his opponent because the first counts came in from cities like Houston, San Antonio, Dallas/Fort worth etc.
But as time has gone on and th outlying voting record come in, he has caught up then pulled away.
Similarly for Josh Hawley in Missouri.
After about 12% of votes, he was trailing by 10%.
Then when the rural votes come in, he caught up and now leads by 4% and pulling further away as each batch comes in.
Highly likely the GOP will have a majority in the senate.
In the House, where the GOP already had a majority, it looks more likely than not that they will increase their majority.
They have already flipped a previously held liberal Democrat set, and are nominally ahead in all the most competitve seats

Mick

 

[moXJO]

View attachment 187421​

If Trump wins, it's the biggest grassroots campaign I've seen. A lot of people have done it without any funding. Democrats have outspent about 2:1

 

[mullokintyre]

My wife was asking at breakfast this morning if I thought there was a chance that D Trump might be the victim of a third or fourth assasination attempt.
As I responded that I had no idea, but there were enough loonies in the US to make it a distinct possibility, another thought crossed my mind.
As it stands now, Trump , having already served one presidential term, can only serve one more.
JD Vance has performed with sufficient aplomb to be the front runner for the next primary, where he would be eligible to serve two terms.
However, what happens if Trump dies, either of natural causes, assassination, or being smothered with a white pillow by his wife?
The 25th amendment lays out specifically that in the event of the president not being able to serve out his/her/its term, whether by death, incapacitance, impeachment etc, the Vice president shall assume the role of president. This alos applies should the president elect be unable to assume the role before inauguration.
So what happens if Trump is out, VP Vance is in, can he then run for two elected terms?
The answer id it depend on how far into the term he assumes office.
Amendment 22 says that anyone who assumes the office of president due to presidential incapacitance, kidnap or impeachment, and who assumes the role of president for two years or more, can then only be elected for one further term.
So if anyone is going to bump off Trump, it would be better for the Vance and the Republicans to make sure it happens less than two years before his term expires,
Mick
.

 

[moXJO]

My wife was asking at breakfast this morning if I thought there was a chance that D Trump might be the victim of a third or fourth assasination attempt.
As I responded that I had no idea, but there were enough loonies in the US to make it a distinct possibility, another thought crossed my mind.
As it stands now, Trump , having already served one presidential term, can only serve one more.
JD Vance has performed with sufficient aplomb to be the front runner for the next primary, where he would be eligible to serve two terms.
However, what happens if Trump dies, either of natural causes, assassination, or being smothered with a white pillow by his wife?
The 25th amendment lays out specifically that in the event of the president not being able to serve out his/her/its term, whether by death, incapacitance, impeachment etc, the Vice president shall assume the role of president. This alos applies should the president elect be unable to assume the role before inauguration.
So what happens if Trump is out, VP Vance is in, can he then run for two elected terms?
The answer id it depend on how far into the term he assumes office.
Amendment 22 says that anyone who assumes the office of president due to presidential incapacitance, kidnap or impeachment, and who assumes the role of president for two years or more, can then only be elected for one further term.
So if anyone is going to bump off Trump, it would be better for the Vance and the Republicans to make sure it happens less than two years before his term expires,
Mick
.

He will die from "natural causes" the way he is threatening all these agencies.

 

[Knobby22]

My wife was asking at breakfast this morning if I thought there was a chance that D Trump might be the victim of a third or fourth assasination attempt.
As I responded that I had no idea, but there were enough loonies in the US to make it a distinct possibility, another thought crossed my mind.
As it stands now, Trump , having already served one presidential term, can only serve one more.
JD Vance has performed with sufficient aplomb to be the front runner for the next primary, where he would be eligible to serve two terms.
However, what happens if Trump dies, either of natural causes, assassination, or being smothered with a white pillow by his wife?
The 25th amendment lays out specifically that in the event of the president not being able to serve out his/her/its term, whether by death, incapacitance, impeachment etc, the Vice president shall assume the role of president. This alos applies should the president elect be unable to assume the role before inauguration.
So what happens if Trump is out, VP Vance is in, can he then run for two elected terms?
The answer id it depend on how far into the term he assumes office.
Amendment 22 says that anyone who assumes the office of president due to presidential incapacitance, kidnap or impeachment, and who assumes the role of president for two years or more, can then only be elected for one further term.
So if anyone is going to bump off Trump, it would be better for the Vance and the Republicans to make sure it happens less than two years before his term expires,
Mick
.

I saw a few months back that a doctor said based on age, perceived health, etc he had about a 12% chance of a natural death in office. I think he had Biden at about 15%.

I think death by a pillow over the mouth is ridiculously low as Melania will be living in New York!

I like the two year rule.

Looked it up 75% chance of survival, 10% better than an average man of his age. Thought it would be better than that.

What are the chances of Biden or Trump lasting a second term?

Here’s what the science of ageing has to say about a US presidential election contest between Joe Biden and Donald Trump.

www.afr.com

 

[wayneL]

These people really are pathetic

 

[DB008]

​

 

[IFocus]

​

Clearly it was rigged and stolen 20 mil votes made to disappear by the corrupt Republicans...

 

[wayneL]

Clearly it was rigged and stolen 20 mil votes made to disappear by the corrupt Republicans...

Comedic.

 

[DB008]

You can joke all you want, but the 2020 Election should never have been certified

.​

 

[Dona Ferentes]

pointless

 

[SirRumpole]

Well, the question now for us Aussies it what will Trump do to the Australian economy?

If he goes for an "America first" all out tariff and quota war without exemptions, then the outlook for us is bleak.

Will he use the prospect of tariffs to interfere in the Australian election to get the party of his choice elected here? I wouldn't put it past him.

Anyway you look at it, there are stormy seas ahead in my opinion.

 

[Miss Hale]

Well maybe our Aussie politicians might need to put Australia first for once, not such a bad idea don't you think?

Very happy to see Trump win and looking forward to his presidency.

 

[mullokintyre]

The graphic below shows the yawning divide between the the states in the US election.
7 out of 7 of the bellweather states flipped from democrat to republican.
As has already been mentioned, compared to 2020, trump's vote has increased by about 400,000 votes, not a huge increase.
So the win was not due to a whole lot of converts to the republican cause, though there have been some.
The collapse in the democrat is the talking point.
Harris's vote is over 10 million short of what Biden got in 2020, though it is some 5 million up on Obama in 2012 and Clinton(H) in 2016.
That is going to take some explaining.
Why did 10 million less democrats vote this time round?
Or perhaps more pertinent is why 15 million more democrats came out in 2020 for Biden?
Where did they all go?
It is even more startling when according to the census data and the worldometer, the US population has grown from 331 million in 2020 to 345 million today.
Mick