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Train wreak continues...
US Election Thread
- Thread starter mullokintyre
- Start date
Train wreak continues...
Knobby22
Mmmmmm 2nd breakfast
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Train hasn't left the station yet.
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Now that the 2024 election is (almost) done and dusted, we need to turn our attention to the 2028 presidential election.
Both major will have to find a new candidate, the GOP because Trump will have served two terms, Democrats because Kamala Harris has lost twice.
Firstly, in the primary where Biden was chosen in 2020 (she dropped out when miles behind with democrat voters very early on in the primary), and secondly she was soundly trounced by the rest of the voters in the presidential race.
Despite this, according to Puck polling company, it seems that among the democrat voters, Harris is still the favourite, and has the biggest percentage of democrat voters wanting he to run again.
For the GOP, Vice president elect J.D. Vance is less popular among potential voters than Harris.
Can't wait for the next round of election media headlines to start(or perhaps they have already started?).
Mick
Both major will have to find a new candidate, the GOP because Trump will have served two terms, Democrats because Kamala Harris has lost twice.
Firstly, in the primary where Biden was chosen in 2020 (she dropped out when miles behind with democrat voters very early on in the primary), and secondly she was soundly trounced by the rest of the voters in the presidential race.
Despite this, according to Puck polling company, it seems that among the democrat voters, Harris is still the favourite, and has the biggest percentage of democrat voters wanting he to run again.
For the GOP, Vice president elect J.D. Vance is less popular among potential voters than Harris.
Can't wait for the next round of election media headlines to start(or perhaps they have already started?).
Mick
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Came across this article on "What do Americans think ?" or do they ?
Jonathan V. Last
YouGov asked a series of questions on âWhat percentage of Americans do you think are [fill in the blank]?â With the [blank] being all sorts of qualities: black, gay, Christian, left-handed, own a passport, etc.
The results were hilarious. Here are some of the percentages that Americans (on average) think their fellow citizens are:
Not to be crass, but if a third of the population is gay/lesbian then where are all the kids coming from?
If a quarter of the country is Muslim and a third is Jewish, then mosques plus synagogues would outnumber churches. Does anyone see more mosques and synagogues than churches as they drive around?
If 40 percent of the country is black then wouldnât there be a lot more black people in Congress? I mean, there have only been 12 African-American senators ever.
You see what I mean: These perceptions do not square with any version of observable reality. Here the numbers as they actually exist in the real world:
Share
If you go down the list of characteristics YouGov asked people abut, you see a persistent mistake in one direction: Americans vastly overestimate the numbers of people in minority groups. And by âminority groupsâ Iâm not just talking about racial, ethnic, and sexual minorities. They wildly overestimate all kinds of minorities.
For instance, in addition to believing that 30 percent of the country lives in NYC, the average American thinks that 30 percent of the country lives in Texas and 32 percent lives in California.²
People think that 20 percent of the country makes $1 million (or more) per year (real number: less than 1 percent); that 54 percent of the country owns guns (real number: 32 percent); that 40 percent of the country served in the military (real number: 6 percent); and that 30 percent of the country is vegetarian (real number: 5 percent).
Thereâs something interesting going on here that speaks to a particularly American cognitive bias.
You might think that a normal bias would be to look around, see what is common in your experience, and extrapolate to believe that this is also for true of the rest of the world. Instead, we have the opposite.
People see very few of these characteristics in their everyday livesâand then decide that the rest of the world must be full of these minority groups they rarely encounter.
For someone living in a middle-class suburb of Cleveland, how many trans people, or Muslims, or millionaires do they meet on a daily basis? Iâm guessing, just based on statistics, that the answer approaches zero.
But this average person takes the absence of those minority groups in their life and assumes that the rest of the country is chockablock with them.
That is a strange kind of bias. But waitâthereâs more!
As YouGov kept going they found that people generally underestimate the size of majority populations. Hereâs what they found on majority characteristics, where the number in blue is the percentage that people think exists and the number in red is the percentage that actually exists.
I would like to propose that this peculiar perception bias is indicative of something deep in the American psyche.
Leave a comment
Often The Other is based on race or ethnicity. Sometimes on wealth. Sometimes itâs about class.
These perception gaps suggest that Americans in the majority are deeply paranoid about their own position relative to The Other. They believe that people who are nothing like them make up some massive but invisible bloc, while the people who are very much like themâwho they see every day at the store and in schoolâare more rare than they wish.
This distorted perception leads people in majorities to a combative, oppositional politics. They worry about being displaced by minorities they rarely encounter but fear are lurking somewhere, out there, in great masses.
Richard Hofstadter wrote about the paranoid style in American politics in 1964 and he was looking at both the contemporary and the historical. Developments since then have mostly confirmed his thesis. I think we can take it as read that paranoia is an important component of American social and political life.
And if this is the case, then I would say that our bizarre perception bias is both symptom and cause. People are paranoid about The Other, which is why they believe that hordes of The Other must exist. And the belief that their own majority group is small while The Other is large feeds the underlying paranoia.
Iâm not sure how democracy is supposed to work with a population that is this paranoid, confused, and oblivious to reality.
Maybe you have some ideas. If so, please discuss themâand our cognitive biasâin the comments.
Best comment
Liked by Jonathan V. Last
Those numbers actually square with my own neighborhood. Virtually everyone I know is a gay Muslim Jew who owns a gun.
www.thebulwark.com
Americans Have One Very Strange Cognitive Bias
Or: How I learned to stop worrying and love The People.
Jonathan V. Last
1. Perceptions
Yesterday Jemele Hill recirculated a study YouGov did in 2022 about the gaps between peopleâs perceptions and reality.YouGov asked a series of questions on âWhat percentage of Americans do you think are [fill in the blank]?â With the [blank] being all sorts of qualities: black, gay, Christian, left-handed, own a passport, etc.
The results were hilarious. Here are some of the percentages that Americans (on average) think their fellow citizens are:
- Transgender: 21 percent
- Muslim: 27 percent
- Jewish: 30 percent
- Black: 41 percent
- Live in New York City: 30 percent
- Gay or lesbian: 30 percent
Not to be crass, but if a third of the population is gay/lesbian then where are all the kids coming from?
If a quarter of the country is Muslim and a third is Jewish, then mosques plus synagogues would outnumber churches. Does anyone see more mosques and synagogues than churches as they drive around?
If 40 percent of the country is black then wouldnât there be a lot more black people in Congress? I mean, there have only been 12 African-American senators ever.
You see what I mean: These perceptions do not square with any version of observable reality. Here the numbers as they actually exist in the real world:
- Transgender: 1 percent
- Muslim: 1 percent
- Jewish: 2 percent
- Black: 12 percent
- Live in New York City: 2 percentš
- Gay or lesbian: 3 percent
Share
If you go down the list of characteristics YouGov asked people abut, you see a persistent mistake in one direction: Americans vastly overestimate the numbers of people in minority groups. And by âminority groupsâ Iâm not just talking about racial, ethnic, and sexual minorities. They wildly overestimate all kinds of minorities.
For instance, in addition to believing that 30 percent of the country lives in NYC, the average American thinks that 30 percent of the country lives in Texas and 32 percent lives in California.²
People think that 20 percent of the country makes $1 million (or more) per year (real number: less than 1 percent); that 54 percent of the country owns guns (real number: 32 percent); that 40 percent of the country served in the military (real number: 6 percent); and that 30 percent of the country is vegetarian (real number: 5 percent).
Thereâs something interesting going on here that speaks to a particularly American cognitive bias.
You might think that a normal bias would be to look around, see what is common in your experience, and extrapolate to believe that this is also for true of the rest of the world. Instead, we have the opposite.
People see very few of these characteristics in their everyday livesâand then decide that the rest of the world must be full of these minority groups they rarely encounter.
For someone living in a middle-class suburb of Cleveland, how many trans people, or Muslims, or millionaires do they meet on a daily basis? Iâm guessing, just based on statistics, that the answer approaches zero.
But this average person takes the absence of those minority groups in their life and assumes that the rest of the country is chockablock with them.
That is a strange kind of bias. But waitâthereâs more!
As YouGov kept going they found that people generally underestimate the size of majority populations. Hereâs what they found on majority characteristics, where the number in blue is the percentage that people think exists and the number in red is the percentage that actually exists.
Leave a comment
2. Paranoia
American politics has long been driven by concerns about The Other.Often The Other is based on race or ethnicity. Sometimes on wealth. Sometimes itâs about class.
These perception gaps suggest that Americans in the majority are deeply paranoid about their own position relative to The Other. They believe that people who are nothing like them make up some massive but invisible bloc, while the people who are very much like themâwho they see every day at the store and in schoolâare more rare than they wish.
This distorted perception leads people in majorities to a combative, oppositional politics. They worry about being displaced by minorities they rarely encounter but fear are lurking somewhere, out there, in great masses.
Richard Hofstadter wrote about the paranoid style in American politics in 1964 and he was looking at both the contemporary and the historical. Developments since then have mostly confirmed his thesis. I think we can take it as read that paranoia is an important component of American social and political life.
And if this is the case, then I would say that our bizarre perception bias is both symptom and cause. People are paranoid about The Other, which is why they believe that hordes of The Other must exist. And the belief that their own majority group is small while The Other is large feeds the underlying paranoia.
Iâm not sure how democracy is supposed to work with a population that is this paranoid, confused, and oblivious to reality.
Maybe you have some ideas. If so, please discuss themâand our cognitive biasâin the comments.
Best comment
Liked by Jonathan V. Last
Those numbers actually square with my own neighborhood. Virtually everyone I know is a gay Muslim Jew who owns a gun.
Americans Have One Very Strange Cognitive Bias
Or: How I learned to stop worrying and love The People.
www.thebulwark.com
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This was the original source of the above story.
today.yougov.com
From millionaires to Muslims, small subgroups of the population seem much larger to many Americans | YouGov
When it comes to estimating the size of demographic groups, Americans rarely get it right. In two recent YouGov polls, we asked respondents to guess the percentage (ranging from 0% to 100%) of American adults who are members of 43 different groups, including racial and religious groups, as well...
today.yougov.com
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So did the Americans also have cognitive Bias when they elected Biden, or Obama, or Clinton ....Came across this article on "What do Americans think ?" or do they ?
Americans Have One Very Strange Cognitive Bias
Or: How I learned to stop worrying and love The People.
View attachment 188410
Jonathan V. Last
1. Perceptions
Yesterday Jemele Hill recirculated a study YouGov did in 2022 about the gaps between peopleâs perceptions and reality.
YouGov asked a series of questions on âWhat percentage of Americans do you think are [fill in the blank]?â With the [blank] being all sorts of qualities: black, gay, Christian, left-handed, own a passport, etc.
The results were hilarious. Here are some of the percentages that Americans (on average) think their fellow citizens are:
Weâll get to the actual, in vivo percentages in a moment. First I want to point out the absurdity: 1-in-3 are gay/lesbian? Muslims and Jews make up 57 percent of the country? Blacks are 40 percent of the population?
- Transgender: 21 percent
- Muslim: 27 percent
- Jewish: 30 percent
- Black: 41 percent
- Live in New York City: 30 percent
- Gay or lesbian: 30 percent
Not to be crass, but if a third of the population is gay/lesbian then where are all the kids coming from?
If a quarter of the country is Muslim and a third is Jewish, then mosques plus synagogues would outnumber churches. Does anyone see more mosques and synagogues than churches as they drive around?
If 40 percent of the country is black then wouldnât there be a lot more black people in Congress? I mean, there have only been 12 African-American senators ever.
You see what I mean: These perceptions do not square with any version of observable reality. Here the numbers as they actually exist in the real world:
We are talking about errors of perception measured by orders of magnitude. On the trans population, the average Americanâs estimation is off by 2,000 percent.
- Transgender: 1 percent
- Muslim: 1 percent
- Jewish: 2 percent
- Black: 12 percent
- Live in New York City: 2 percentš
- Gay or lesbian: 3 percent
Share
If you go down the list of characteristics YouGov asked people abut, you see a persistent mistake in one direction: Americans vastly overestimate the numbers of people in minority groups. And by âminority groupsâ Iâm not just talking about racial, ethnic, and sexual minorities. They wildly overestimate all kinds of minorities.
For instance, in addition to believing that 30 percent of the country lives in NYC, the average American thinks that 30 percent of the country lives in Texas and 32 percent lives in California.²
People think that 20 percent of the country makes $1 million (or more) per year (real number: less than 1 percent); that 54 percent of the country owns guns (real number: 32 percent); that 40 percent of the country served in the military (real number: 6 percent); and that 30 percent of the country is vegetarian (real number: 5 percent).
Thereâs something interesting going on here that speaks to a particularly American cognitive bias.
You might think that a normal bias would be to look around, see what is common in your experience, and extrapolate to believe that this is also for true of the rest of the world. Instead, we have the opposite.
People see very few of these characteristics in their everyday livesâand then decide that the rest of the world must be full of these minority groups they rarely encounter.
For someone living in a middle-class suburb of Cleveland, how many trans people, or Muslims, or millionaires do they meet on a daily basis? Iâm guessing, just based on statistics, that the answer approaches zero.
But this average person takes the absence of those minority groups in their life and assumes that the rest of the country is chockablock with them.
That is a strange kind of bias. But waitâthereâs more!
As YouGov kept going they found that people generally underestimate the size of majority populations. Hereâs what they found on majority characteristics, where the number in blue is the percentage that people think exists and the number in red is the percentage that actually exists.
I would like to propose that this peculiar perception bias is indicative of something deep in the American psyche.
Leave a comment
2. Paranoia
American politics has long been driven by concerns about The Other.
Often The Other is based on race or ethnicity. Sometimes on wealth. Sometimes itâs about class.
These perception gaps suggest that Americans in the majority are deeply paranoid about their own position relative to The Other. They believe that people who are nothing like them make up some massive but invisible bloc, while the people who are very much like themâwho they see every day at the store and in schoolâare more rare than they wish.
This distorted perception leads people in majorities to a combative, oppositional politics. They worry about being displaced by minorities they rarely encounter but fear are lurking somewhere, out there, in great masses.
Richard Hofstadter wrote about the paranoid style in American politics in 1964 and he was looking at both the contemporary and the historical. Developments since then have mostly confirmed his thesis. I think we can take it as read that paranoia is an important component of American social and political life.
And if this is the case, then I would say that our bizarre perception bias is both symptom and cause. People are paranoid about The Other, which is why they believe that hordes of The Other must exist. And the belief that their own majority group is small while The Other is large feeds the underlying paranoia.
Iâm not sure how democracy is supposed to work with a population that is this paranoid, confused, and oblivious to reality.
Maybe you have some ideas. If so, please discuss themâand our cognitive biasâin the comments.
Best comment
Liked by Jonathan V. Last
Those numbers actually square with my own neighborhood. Virtually everyone I know is a gay Muslim Jew who owns a gun.
Americans Have One Very Strange Cognitive Bias
Or: How I learned to stop worrying and love The People.
It would seem that some of the people who suffer most from cognitive bias are totally unaware .
Mick
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Apart from the fact that Trump won the popular vote, and won well in excess of the number of delegates to win the presidency, a rather surprising data point has emerged.
Harris failed to overturn a single county from Trump, the first time in 92 years it has happened.
Mick
Harris failed to overturn a single county from Trump, the first time in 92 years it has happened.
Mick
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Another of those totally Bizarre election facts has emerged.
A republican rep for the 12th Texas Congress seats has been "missing" for six months.
Kay Granger did not seek reelection in the most recent Reps election process, but she is still a sitting member until Jan 6th.
So it comes as a surprise that she has been found living in an aged care facility for people with various levels of dementia.
The 81 year old had not cast a ballot since July, although the reps house has been in recess during August and October.
Even as late as December 18th, she was lauded by having had her portrait hung as being chairperson of the house appropriations commitee for 10 of the 25 years she served on the comittee. (see Kay granger Portrait ).
Various people spoke of her dedicated service, despite the fact she had been missing for a few months.
from Zero hedge
Given the closeness of some votes, its kinda surprising that no one from the GOP asked the obvious question of where the hell she was.
But then again, perhaps they already knew.
Mick
A republican rep for the 12th Texas Congress seats has been "missing" for six months.
Kay Granger did not seek reelection in the most recent Reps election process, but she is still a sitting member until Jan 6th.
So it comes as a surprise that she has been found living in an aged care facility for people with various levels of dementia.
The 81 year old had not cast a ballot since July, although the reps house has been in recess during August and October.
Even as late as December 18th, she was lauded by having had her portrait hung as being chairperson of the house appropriations commitee for 10 of the 25 years she served on the comittee. (see Kay granger Portrait ).
Various people spoke of her dedicated service, despite the fact she had been missing for a few months.
from Zero hedge
Given the closeness of some votes, its kinda surprising that no one from the GOP asked the obvious question of where the hell she was.
But then again, perhaps they already knew.
Mick
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The release of US Congress investigation of Matt Gaetz appears imminent.
Colourful indeed. And this was the guy Donald Trump wanted to be his attack dog Attorney General.
Robert Tait and Joseph Gedeon in Washington
Tue 24 Dec 2024 03.26 AEDT
A House ethics committee report on Matt Gaetz, the former Florida Republican congressman, found âsubstantial evidenceâ that he engaged in sex trafficking and paid for sex with a minor, among other serious violations of state law and congressional rules.
The investigation concludes that Gaetz, Trumpâs first pick for attorney general, made payments totalling tens of thousands of dollars to women for sex and drugs across at least 20 separate occasions. The report also states that in 2017 Gaetz paid a 17-year-old girl for sex when he was 35 years old, which would constitute statutory rape under Florida law.
âThe committee determined there is substantial evidence that Representative Gaetz violated House Rules and other standards of conduct prohibiting prostitution, statutory rape, illicit drug use, impermissible gifts, special favors or privileges, and obstruction of Congress,â the Republican-led panel wrote in the investigation.
According to the report, Gaetz used payment apps including Venmo and PayPal to transfer money directly to more than a dozen women during his time in Congress.
The committee determined that Gaetz regularly used illegal drugs including cocaine and ecstasy between 2017-2020, and appears to have set up a pseudonymous email account from his House office to purchase marijuana, violating both state laws and House ethics rules.
The committee believes that Gaetz âknowingly and willfullyâ attempted to obstruct the investigation, including failing to comply with subpoenas, withholding evidence, providing misleading responses, and making false public statements about âvoluminous documentary evidenceâ that he never actually produced.
Investigators also highlighted a 2018 trip to the Bahamas where Gaetz allegedly âengaged in sexual activityâ with multiple women. One woman told the committee that the trip itself served as âpaymentâ for sexual services. The same witness reported that Gaetz took ecstasy during the Bahamas visit, which investigators determined violated House gift rules.
The Gaetz legal team, meanwhile, is fighting hard to keep the report from seeing the light of day, arguing in a new lawsuit on Monday morning: âIf publicly released, would significantly damage plaintiffâs standing and reputation in the community.â It âwould be immediate, severe and irreversibleâ. Gaetz has long maintained his innocence.
www.theguardian.com
Colourful indeed. And this was the guy Donald Trump wanted to be his attack dog Attorney General.
Matt Gaetz ethics report finds evidence he paid for sex with minor
House report finds âsubstantial evidenceâ ex-congressman engaged in sex trafficking among other violationsRobert Tait and Joseph Gedeon in Washington
Tue 24 Dec 2024 03.26 AEDT
A House ethics committee report on Matt Gaetz, the former Florida Republican congressman, found âsubstantial evidenceâ that he engaged in sex trafficking and paid for sex with a minor, among other serious violations of state law and congressional rules.
The investigation concludes that Gaetz, Trumpâs first pick for attorney general, made payments totalling tens of thousands of dollars to women for sex and drugs across at least 20 separate occasions. The report also states that in 2017 Gaetz paid a 17-year-old girl for sex when he was 35 years old, which would constitute statutory rape under Florida law.
âThe committee determined there is substantial evidence that Representative Gaetz violated House Rules and other standards of conduct prohibiting prostitution, statutory rape, illicit drug use, impermissible gifts, special favors or privileges, and obstruction of Congress,â the Republican-led panel wrote in the investigation.
According to the report, Gaetz used payment apps including Venmo and PayPal to transfer money directly to more than a dozen women during his time in Congress.
The committee determined that Gaetz regularly used illegal drugs including cocaine and ecstasy between 2017-2020, and appears to have set up a pseudonymous email account from his House office to purchase marijuana, violating both state laws and House ethics rules.
The committee believes that Gaetz âknowingly and willfullyâ attempted to obstruct the investigation, including failing to comply with subpoenas, withholding evidence, providing misleading responses, and making false public statements about âvoluminous documentary evidenceâ that he never actually produced.
Investigators also highlighted a 2018 trip to the Bahamas where Gaetz allegedly âengaged in sexual activityâ with multiple women. One woman told the committee that the trip itself served as âpaymentâ for sexual services. The same witness reported that Gaetz took ecstasy during the Bahamas visit, which investigators determined violated House gift rules.
The Gaetz legal team, meanwhile, is fighting hard to keep the report from seeing the light of day, arguing in a new lawsuit on Monday morning: âIf publicly released, would significantly damage plaintiffâs standing and reputation in the community.â It âwould be immediate, severe and irreversibleâ. Gaetz has long maintained his innocence.
Matt Gaetz ethics report finds evidence he paid for sex with minor
House report finds âsubstantial evidenceâ ex-congressman engaged in sex trafficking among other violations
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