Technical Analysis from "Iced Earth" Point of View

[iced earth]

Silver & AYN - 12 August 2011
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Silver might have Head& Shoulder pattern, but first should have the right shoulder completed and then break up the neckline with a considerable volume, but if it happens , Silver should be again around $50.00.



if it won’t happen and silver goes down the red line is a valid support line to hold it back.



the compare of the Silver price with AYN is interesting. Ayn shows a very strong correlation to Silver price and also has the same pattern , so to follow the AYN we should follow Silver price movement.(Yellow colour is Silver,Purple is AYN)



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Silver is and interesting commodity, it has both characteristics of Investment and Industrial usage, (Unlike Gold which is almost all Investment purposes) so sometimes it has not the same pattern as gold...

 

[iced earth]

TLS(TELSTRA):15 AUGUST 2011
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In Telstra we are in a very important situation, we see at this price , TLS has two resistance line:

1- is a shorter term channel, which has target around3.60 (if the upper line of the channels passed up successfully)



2- there is another longer term channel which has the target around $4.00



and at this price at long term view, TLS would reaches the top of the long term bearish channel

 

[iced earth]

Silver - 19 August 2011
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Silver is braking the neck line of the Head& Shoulders pattern, if monday silver closes high with a good volume, target could be around $50.00 .

 

[isplicer]

Hey everyone! After reading, reading, reading, watching and learning for the past few weeks, as a beginner, I'm both excited (and rather anxious) to present my first try at technical analysis (NEN):

http://i53.tinypic.com/1iobuv.jpg

Please do let me know what you think! What could I have included, what I've needlessly added in, if my analysis is rubbish, etc =).

Thank you!

EDIT: Have I missed an obvious head and shoulders reversal pattern, with the head forming on the fifth of July? Could that apply here?

 

[tech/a]

Your basically forming a chart commentary.
You need your analysis to come to a conclusion.
While past history creates a map the map must have a destination.

 

[isplicer]

Your basically forming a chart commentary.
You need your analysis to come to a conclusion.
While past history creates a map the map must have a destination.

Thanks for your input, much appreciated . I'll definitely keep that in mind.

Actually, the line that I drew at the edge of the chart with a question mark next to it is what I expect the stock to do (breakout from the wedge). Do you think this is a valid conclusion given my earlier commentary?

Another likely scenario is that a head and shoulders pattern is forming, which is exactly opposite to what I concluded... confused

Thanks again for taking the time to help me out =)

 

[Chalea]

EDIT: Have I missed an obvious head and shoulders reversal pattern, with the head forming on the fifth of July? Could that apply here?
Another likely scenario is that a head and shoulders pattern is forming, which is exactly opposite to what I concluded... confused

Hi isplicer,

Check the weekly if the daily confuses

SP needs to close below 31c to call it a double top, (target approx 15c).

For now, the uptrend's over & longer term indicators have signalled & now confirmed a change in momentum direction, (confirming the trendline break).

Click

 

[tech/a]

Briefly
Double bottom strong support.
This is in a corrective pattern so limited up side and limited downside
So I think you've got it pretty right.
In the short term I'd be looking to see the bottom tested.

 

[isplicer]

Hi isplicer,

Check the weekly if the daily confuses

SP needs to close below 31c to call it a double top, (target approx 15c).

For now, the uptrend's over & longer term indicators have signalled & now confirmed a change in momentum direction, (confirming the trendline break).

Click
View attachment 44146

Thanks a lot for your contribution Chelea. A few quick clarifications if I may. I'm not quite sure what you meant by "SP needs to close below 31c to call it a double top, ". Where/when did this sub-31c close need to occur?

Regarding the above, I had a read of this rather comprehensive guide on what they entail and how to identify them: http://stockcharts.com/school/doku....t_analysis:chart_patterns:double_top_reversal

After reading that, I doubt that the two highs we saw in early May and early July can be part of the 'double top' pattern - the two tops are not very similar (they are a good 9% apart). Also, the decline from the second peak wasn't on expanding volume like the above guide requires.. and of course, the neckline of this possible double top was indeed tested after the 'second peak' (early Aug) but the support held and there was a substantial rebound. I don't think we have a double top reversal on our hands...? What do you think? Is my reasoning here correct?

Also, regarding your comment about the bearish divergence between price and RSI, could you please clarify? You've said that if the RSI gets lower as new highs are formed, then it's a bearish signal. My (rather elemental) understanding of RSI is that it indicates how overbought or oversold a security is. It thus seems logical to conclude that if new highs correspond to LOWER RSI's, then it means that even though new highs are being formed, the lower RSI's are saying that the stock isn't being overbought, despite the new highs (doesn't that make it bullish?) If the RSI was getting HIGHER as the price got higher, that would seem bearish to me as the new highs are corresponding to the RSI displaying an overbought signal (that is, the new highs are a result of being overbought, suggesting a reversal) I'm really sorry for the jumble, I hope what I just wrote is intelligible =).

Thanks a lot guys!

 

[isplicer]

In the short term I'd be looking to see the bottom tested.

Tech/a, is that because we might possibly have a bearish head/shoulders reversal pattern on our hands? It's obviously not a double top, and it can't be a double bottom as there was an UPTREND before the two troughs (a double bottom reverses a DOWNTREND). Perhaps it can indeed be a H/S pattern?

https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/-.../AAAAAAAABY4/4--RYOz557Y/s1600/Untitled-1.jpg

It fits in with the information given here shockingly well:
http://stockcharts.com/school/doku...._analysis:chart_patterns:head_and_shoulders_t

If it's true, we have a target of 15c.

 

[tech/a]

I think it only fair on "iced earth"
To take discussion of anything un related to his thread elsewhere!

 

[isplicer]

I think it only fair on "iced earth"
To take discussion of anything un related to his thread elsewhere!

Of course, how silly of me. I'll start a new thread in the beginners lounge shortly and move my posts there.

Thanks!

 

[isplicer]

I think it only fair on "iced earth"
To take discussion of anything un related to his thread elsewhere!

Moved the discussion to a more appropriate place: https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=23328&p=653634&posted=1#post653634
Would greatly appreciate your input tech/a, chalea and others =).

Apologies to the original thread creator for the little thread hijack =). Moderators, please feel free to clean this thread up if you feel that it's necessary.

Regards,
S

 

[iced earth]

Moved the discussion to a more appropriate place: https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=23328&p=653634&posted=1#post653634
Would greatly appreciate your input tech/a, chalea and others =).

Apologies to the original thread creator for the little thread hijack =). Moderators, please feel free to clean this thread up if you feel that it's necessary.

Regards,
S

Hi Isplicer, good start, wish you luck...

 

[iced earth]

Aud/USD:22-08-2011

In daily chart we had a double top which reached the target around 0.993.now pair has the middle green dotted line as a resistance line, which was a support line before was broken down.



In weekly chart (logarithmic) , we have a Andrew Pitchfork , which the upper line acts as a resistance line and there is a red support line and if it breaks down we might see the pair get lower and the white dotted line and then middle line of pitch for are the next support lines.



Also in monthly (Linear) charts we are seeing the pair movement in a Andrew Pitchfork and the upper line is a very strong resistance level for the pair and there is a green support line which didn’t let pair fall less than 0.993 and if this support line breaks down the next support line would be middle of the pitchfork.



But if we study the monthly charts, we could see that the pair still has a bullish trend, (pair is above EMA 20 , Momentum above 0 and MACD above signal, and whenever price get in touch with EMA20 and Momentum to 0 and MACD to signal we would have support levels and if these be broken down we might have a long term downtrend.It means as long as we have stay in signal we might see longterm pattern of AUD/USD bullish.

 

[iced earth]

Technical Analysis of HVN(Harvy Norman): 11 sept 2011:

The price is moving in a channel and now has touched the upper line, if it could scape up of the upper line the target would be $2.50 if not the lower line would act as the support line.
Also EMA20 , momentum and MACD has sent buy signal



In this picture we have 3 resistance lines (red line is short term, blue line is middle term and green is longer term)


Tio and parabolic SAR shows uptrend in HVN

 

[iced earth]

HVN-20 SEPT 2011:

HVN could not pass up the upper (resistance) line of the channel, now it is near to the lower (support) line of the channel which could halt downtrend of HVN.

 

[Tysonboss1]

Hi iced earth,

Is that Warren Buffett in your avatar, it seems a bit strange for someone so focused on ta to have that.

 

[iced earth]

Hi iced earth,

Is that Warren Buffett in your avatar, it seems a bit strange for someone so focused on ta to have that.

Hi Tysonboss1

yes, that's him. I like him a lot and I like and respect and use fundamental Analysis as well.
It is a pitty that Warren is not a TA believer.

If we could combine thses two each other we could get the best results (Technofunamental)

My strategy is to follow companies with good fundamental and the best entering pint would be determined by TA.
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By the way the lower line of the channel seems start working

 

[Tysonboss1]

It is a pitty that Warren is not a TA believer.

Warren did spend time on TA in his early years, But completely abandoned it when he studied under Ben Graham at college

He believes that dedicating any part of his thinking to TA is just distracting him from his core work of security analysis, Warrens Hero Ben Graham also distained TA.

The opening chaptor of bens book jumps straight into ditching ta.