Technical Analysis from "Iced Earth" Point of View

[iced earth]

Warren did spend time on TA in his early years, But completely abandoned it when he studied under Ben Graham at college

He believes that dedicating any part of his thinking to TA is just distracting him from his core work of security analysis, Warrens Hero Ben Graham also distained TA.

The opening chaptor of bens book jumps straight into ditching ta.

I know
I have read this book and another famous books of Ben Graham,they are precious...also Warren only accept Daw theory and Elliot waving

 

[iced earth]

AYN-22 Sept 2011:

Investors should be careful for this channel, with considering the Silver price around $37.00 , the lower line of channel might be broken...

 

[iced earth]

GOLD-23 SEPT 2011
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Gold in daily charts touched the top line of the channel and now the lower line of the channel would be consider a valid support level



in monthly charts, also we see gold touched the top line of the channel and if the mentioned daily charts (lower line) could not hold the gold , the red line and EMA 20 could be the next support level

 

[iced earth]

Gold-27 Sept 2011:

Gold as predicted touched the support line at around 1550 and bounced back.

 

[iced earth]

AUD/USD: 4-10-2011
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As I mentioned before the upper line of pitch fork acted as very strong resistance line and the pair couldn’t pass up over it around 1.10 and started to fall.
Also the support line (Red line) could not halt the fall and now the strong support line would be consider the middle line of the pitch fork. Also around this support we have the green line would be acted as support line too



In daily chart also we are seeing the pair is touching the middle line of the pitch fork. it seems the logarithm charts is more valid in this case



the ugly look of the pair (not ugly at all for our exporters)in monthly chart is that we are seeing the sell signal from momentum, EMA 20 and MACD/SIGNAL and as we could see the last time we had sell signal (white circle) in 2008 the pair went below 0.65 .

 

[iced earth]

BSL (BlueScope Steel Limited) : 05-10-2011
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BSL broke down two major support line and as the result touched as low as $0.635



now we are seeing the + divergence between the price and CCI and RSI , also we could see price moves up the EMA 20 days which will be a buy signal. The most important resistance of this upward move would be the blow dotted line



Another positive about technical of BSL is that in monthly chart we see + divergence between the price and CCI which would move the price higher

 

[iced earth]

JBH (JB Hi Fi)- 10.10.2011
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Price has been corrected as far as %61.8 fibo ratio:



More importantly JBH has touched its valid longterm support line,



normally this support line should hold price from falling but if not we would see more downtrend from this Australia's Largest Home Entertainment Retailer

 

[iced earth]

HVN - 10.10.2011
=========================
HVN is moving in a upward channel and now is touching the upper line of the channel which might cause a little halt in rising



but important thing is that HVN has been passed up the resistance line (green) and the possible correction would be just a pull back to this resistance line

 

[iced earth]

MQG(MACQUARIE GROUP LTD):20-10-211
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In a weekly chart, price touches the blue dotted line which acts as resistance line(this line was the support line but when passed down , now is the resistance and the recent upward might be just a pullback) . also 20EMA and Momentum 0 could be considered as resistance level.



But in daily chart, there is a possibility of Head and Shoulders pattern, but 1st we should see the right shoulder and then the neck line should be passed up with a good volume then , then the target could be around 30.00

 

[iced earth]

TA of MQG 29/10/2011:

In this picture we can see that the green resistance line is passed up.



If the price will manage to be closed higher Monday we would say that the neckline of the Head & Shoulders been passed up successfully and the target could be around $30.00. Also the volume is higher which is a very important when share passes up the neckline.



In a longer term the neckline is part of the resistance line (green) which should be passed up successfully for having the upward trend.

 

[iced earth]

TA of JBH 30-10-11
==========================

as I said before share had been touched the long-term support line around $14.00 which was at fibo 61.8% too. Also it has the horizontal support line (the green) which once was the resistance line of the share but when sp has been passed it up successfully now is acting as the support line.

But sp around $17.00 is facing the horizontal resistance level (peak in 2007-blue) and also the lower (red) line of the channel. if share would manage to pass these resistance levels we could see the sp above $20.00 (the upper red resistance line(upper line of the channel)



For more details:

 

[iced earth]

TA of MQG(MACQUARIE GROUP) - 03-11-11
===============================
Unfortunately the price could not pass up the red resistance line successfully.



Now the price has reached the support line and tomorrow we should see, if this support line would work or more fall should be anticipated

 

[iced earth]

TA of Aud/Usd - 24 Nov 2011
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In 4hr charts, we could see that the pair is moving in a downward blue channel and after the pair passed down the red support line now is facing the lower line of the channel which could hold the pair from more fall but even so, the pair has the upper line of the channel as the resistance line.



In daily chart, after the pair touch the important level of 0.94 , moved up till around 1.07 which has previous pick and could not pass it up. Now the pair has the valid and important of level .94 (red line) and blue support line and if these could not hold the pair from further fall, we should see the pair at least around .9



Also in monthly chart, we could see Andrew pitchfork, around .94 , middle line of the pitchfork acted as support line and we should see if this line could work for aus/usd this time or not

 

[namrog]

Like and appreciate your analysis there Iced Earth..

Keep it up ....

 

[iced earth]

Like and appreciate your analysis there Iced Earth..

Keep it up ....

thanks namrog.
I am happy you like them

 

[iced earth]

TA of Aud/Usd - 28 Nov 2011
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As it was mentioned, the pair started to increase when touched lower line of the channel (support line).
Now the pair is breaking up the downtrend channel, If it could manage to hold it up , the target would be around 1.025. But before reaching that, it will face the resistance blue line around 1.00.

 

[iced earth]

TA of JBH - 28 Nov 2011:
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JBH has a strong support around $15.00 (the blue support line and previous low around 15). if this level works, the price could be anticipated to test 16.75 again.
but if price falls below 15.00 and stay there for more than 2-3 days, we could say we might are having the double top which the target would be around 14.00.



but more importantly, the price around 14-15 has a very important, valid long-term blue support line.
in this picture we could see the main white resistance line. in a normal situation JBH would move between these support resistance lines.

 

[iced earth]

TA of Aud/Usd - 30 Nov 2011
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As it was predicted, after the pair breaks up the channel stated to rise but the blue resistance line didn’t let it pass.
if it could pass this reissuance line, the target of the channel around 1.025 could be reached.

 

[iced earth]

TA of Aud/Usd - 02 Dec 2011
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As it was predicted, after the pair breaks up the channel stated to rise but the blue resistance line didn’t let it pass.
after few hours the pair could pass this reissuance line successfully and reached the target of the channel . now the blue line is acting as support line for the pair.

 

[tech/a]

As always nice clean simple analysis.