Technical Analysis from "Iced Earth" Point of View

[motorway]

Warren did spend time on TA in his early years, But completely abandoned it when he studied under Ben Graham at college

He believes that dedicating any part of his thinking to TA is just distracting him from his core work of security analysis, Warrens Hero Ben Graham also distained TA.

The opening chaptor of bens book jumps straight into ditching ta.

How does Warren then know what MR Market is up too ? Whether he is Hyper or depressive ? If as you say he never considers share prices and how they are behaving

any part of his thinking to TA

.

TA people will say or some of them that they never look at anything other then prices etc.

FA people could maybe say the same about the business aspects . But FA people who talk about the moods of MR Market ? Do not see how ! TA is just like a pathology test .Eg If there is something unusual in Mr Markets pathology . It will show up in the blood tests. ( which are a snapshot of data considered in the terms of History and Deviations )

If you never looked at share prices you would never know how Mr Market was feeling.

It is a pitty that Warren is not a TA believer.

He is always interested in what Mr Market is doing . He does look at the behavior of Mkts and Prices . He does not try to predict them .. That would seem to be a very good defintion of the best type of TA.

And in part it does come down to how much you want to BUY ... The whole company or .000001 % ... IE are you the Hitchhiker or you own and drive the whole shebang .

Motorway

 

[pixel]

...I like and respect and use fundamental Analysis as well.

If we could combine thses two each other we could get the best results (Technofun{d}amental)

My strategy is to follow companies with good fundamental and the best entering pint would be determined by TA.

+1

The only problem I have with some aspects of F/A: It takes a lot of time, spent on individual companies, to separate what's opinion (aka "ramp") or superseded data from actual proven facts and figures.
For example, some fundamentalists quote Brokers' "Consensus" and when we look at the details, opinions vary from outperform to avoid, maybe a majority of brokers polled didn't even reply at all.

For that reason, I prefer to get a technical analysis first, and only once that suggests I take an interest, I'll study the data, the ages of p/e or yield figures, recent reports etc.

 

[iced earth]

You are right Pixel ...

FA is really time consuming and even you could calculate and predict future EPS with very good accuracy, still there is another important unknown, P/E ...

but with studying Fundamental of a company you could have a good understanding about its strength and weakness, then you could use TA to find the best point of entry...

But another good thing about FA is that when you study and analyse it for the first time which would very time taking, for future new reports and data you should spend less less time to have a result from your FA...

anyway I love both of TA and FA ... I will try to put some of my FA in a topic which would force me to spend time one it along TA...

but I must admit FA is boring than TA and need patience and patience... and you should like accounting if you want to be a F Analyst...

 

[iced earth]

TA of HVN - 05-12-2011
====================
HVN had a good support at around $2.00 and today reached the valid (Red) resistance line and could not passed up $2.20.




If HVN could manage to pass up this resistance line, it could reach the next important(blue) resistance line (around $2.80- depends when reach this line)

 

[iced earth]

TA of AUD/USD - 06-12-2011
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There is a possible flag (pennant) pattern, if formed completely, the target would be above 1.07

 

[iced earth]

TA of Gold - 13 Dec 2011
============================
In Linear chart (weekly): we see that Gold has a strong support line (Red) near $1600.00

next valid support line is the green one which is the main upward trend line for gold



Gold around $1600.00 where has the red support line is also around important 38.2% Fibo



In logarithmic chart (daily) : the importance of $1600.00 is more clear. Gold at around $1600.00 would touch lower line of the upward channel as very valid support line. If this support line can't hold Gold from falling, the target would be around $1300.00 which has important Fibo 50% as well.

 

[iced earth]

TA of Silver - 18 Jan 2012:
=====================
Silver had a bearish H&S and reached the target around $26



now we see a bullish H&S has formed. it has also its pullback after breaking up the neckline. the target of this pattern would be considered around $33.

 

[iced earth]

TA of Silver - 20 Jan 2012
===============================
As it was predicted in the previous post, Silver after breaking of the Neckline and pullback is going to reach the target of the Head and Shoulders around $33.00