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Sean K Trading

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gg, Medium term, but not a forever hold. Will add on weakness, but not much. I'm adjusting my plan on everything I hold on a day to day basis depending on the macro and micro environment. The short to medium term narrative for gold looks very strong to me. But, no idea how long it's going to last. I am absolutely certain that China is going to go to war over Taiwan in the next 2-5 years, and gold will go bananas. It's only an arse pluck what price gold goes to then and when to take the money and run to the doomsday bunker. SK
 
About inflation Monsieur @divs4ever
i am surprised you often state in posts things like:
"I got XXX at $2 in 2010, currently at 2.30 so not interested unless below $2.10"
Obviously figures for example only.

And i have often thought, you want these shares at a price forgetting inflation?
If real inflation is at nearly 10pc a year, we need to take that into account.
Aparte closed
 
inflation IS taken into account , but so is a realistic appraisal of the economy ( and that particular sector ) and the chances that the business will find a path back from the current situation

while not a devout fan of Warren Buffet i do see wisdom in some of his quotes ( and apply them when appropriate )

so if i see a good business ( say WHC or XRF ) being brutally bashed ( say down more than 50% since the initial buy , i think very carefully first , but DO inject some more cash )

normally i ask myself that question when i see a ( good ) stock down 20% on my average price , but also i can be quick to leave if a company moves in a direction i don't like ( WBC , FMG , EML , MAQ , ISX as examples especially if in a profit , but i will crystallize losses as well

fun fact my current largest holding is PME

IF i had not reduced the original holding the value of the holding would have been more than 10% more than my current portfolios combined .. now PME currently returns ( on my buy price ) a 200% (+) return per year

so the question is if you had just one share like that ( and no others ) how would you sleep at night ( sitting on a 31,000% gain but at full cash risk )


some decisions aren't easy ( even in hindsight )
 

Completely bailed on this one @Garpal Gumnut. Licking my wounds for the moment. Should have done so a couple of sessions ago. Probably suffered from the general market negativity. Bad timing.
 
Topped up SVM at 61c after the inexplicable crash in the SP two days ago. Was waiting for some bad news but instead RIO increased its stake to 19.9%. Can only assume they're ready to take a much larger stake and own it outright.

Slowly getting to the point of having about 10% in most stocks, except IOZ which will go to 20% and then add an international ETF around the same %. as a base holding. Still working on a plan as to what % I allocate to general equities, resource ETFs and specs. Might be around the 40/30/30 mark eventually.

 
What percentage is cash? Still sitting on a huge pile?
 
In line with concentrating the portfolio and getting rid of some dead wood I jettisoned CEL for a 60% loss last week but added to SVM.

Learnt some very good lessons with CEL on judging management and their sales pitches. When they start exaggerating at best and lying at worst, it's time to bail.

I'm obviously top heavy PMs and have been for some time, but will probably add to a few positions Monday on the breakout. Even though there's sure to be more consolidation after this little jump.

I don't want to miss out on ducati's gold forecasts.

 
Even though ETPMAG gapped up a bit, silver looks like it might be going to catch up to gold so I did top up at ave $42.60. Up to 11% of holdings. Will probably correct back down now...

FFM hitting ATH this am on some geophysics which may be more significant that most realise. They came out with an ann on 3 Sep analysing the success of their DHEM work which looked highly effective in identifying mineralisation and it now looks like they might have some additional loads at depth adjacent to the current resources. Could be very significant, unless they're just ramping it.

From 3 Sep:

 
I switched some etpmag to you thus morning and got a bit more gold instead as i was maybe too heavy silver vs gold
 
Sean, where are you parking cash? I'm thinking of bonds or interest etfs for the first time, like AAA, VGB .....
Just looking for things to check out and be interested in your choices.
Bit concerned by spectre of bail-ins or confiscation in a bust.
 
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