All trading needs to cease for 14 days prior to Monday open in Sydney

[kahuna1]

It's the credit markets that are scary.

Not really .... other than issues I have with too much corporate debt and home loan debt but at 0.25% interest ?

1987 I think I shared the RBA basically swamped the market with cash. They ignored it .... instead of even the cash rate being 8.5% down from 11% ... on the 20th Oct ... it went UP ... not down and 3 months went up near 15% from 11.5% despite cash being swamped with liquidity 6 month rates went even higher ... USA of course did the same and the market responded correctly.

Nothing new .... just this time both markets ignoring the central bank which, actually is new for the USA but its happened here before. I back as always the central bank. Idiotic not to ... when they control liquidity and cash rates and if someone wants to pay 3% above cash, they just go ... ok here is 500 billion more ... of people wont lend to each other ... they just go ... well we lend to you ALL.

Famous last words being more confident on this. Central banks DON'T really control bond rates, the can influence them and shorter term ones more so. Having a 1 year short term bond at 3% and cash at zero is one hell of a reason to cash and carry the risk.

Enuf ... back pre 9 am ... Monday with USA numbers and if any action slowing the spread of stupidity .. in financial markets.

 

[Smurf1976]

Please just read the links and research provided and if your seriously suggesting no cure or vaccine or anti viral works right NOW or social distancing does not STOP spread from say 2.5 to 0.25 ... and spread is halted, identified via testing ... and isolation. Well ... science is not a strong point.

Just use the links and links within links as provided and see if AIDS is a threat still or a vaccine exists for Ebola or Chicken pox or a list of 20 other things.

Clearly in your universe a cure does not exist and its the end of the world forever and what say Singapore did post MERS and SARS and Swine flu ... did not occur.

The point is that closing an equities market which runs electronically does absolutely nothing at all to help with any of the points you raise.

If it would somehow help then there would be a valid argument but it won't. As such, it's a classic case of trying to hitch a spurious action to a valid cause in order to get it through.

Closing the ASX will not stop the spread of this virus. Nor will asking ABC TV to display the test pattern help and nor would directing all bus drivers to blast the horn before stopping do any good.



This won't help no.

For the younger readers - this was indeed broadcast for a period each morning and evening back in the days when TV stations closed overnight. It's a real thing yes, anyone over a certain age would have it somewhat etched into their mind. It was for tuning the TV properly back in the days of analogue, a process which involved turning various knobs until the picture looks right. It doesn't kill viruses though.

 

[sptrawler]

The point is that closing an equities market which runs electronically does absolutely nothing at all to help with any of the points you raise.

If it would somehow help then there would be a valid argument but it won't. As such, it's a classic case of trying to hitch a spurious action to a valid cause in order to get it through.

Closing the ASX will not stop the spread of this virus. Nor will asking ABC TV to display the test pattern help and nor would directing all bus drivers to blast the horn before stopping do any good.



This won't help no.

For the younger readers - this was indeed broadcast for a period each morning and evening back in the days when TV stations closed overnight. It's a real thing yes, anyone over a certain age would have it somewhat etched into their mind. It was for tuning the TV properly back in the days of analogue, a process which involved turning various knobs until the picture looks right. It doesn't kill viruses though.

Obviously the younger generation are going to get a dose of reality, which may in fact give them a chance to actually prioratise what is important and it isnt a house in central Sydney.lol

 

[Smurf1976]

Obviously the younger generation are going to get a dose of reality

I think there's an important psychological aspect to all this and it's inverse to the medical.

The older someone is, the better they'll cope with the psychological aspect of seeing society fall in a heap despite the bigger risk they're at medically.

Anyone under mid-40's who's always lived in Australia has no memory of a recession. They're in for one hell of a surprise and not in a good way. At least that bit won't be such a shock to the older half of the population.

 

[sptrawler]

I think there's an important psychological aspect to all this and it's inverse to the medical.

The older someone is, the better they'll cope with the psychological aspect of seeing society fall in a heap despite the bigger risk they're at medically.

Anyone under mid-40's who's always lived in Australia has no memory of a recession. They're in for one hell of a surprise and not in a good way. At least that bit won't be such a shock to the older half of the population.

I dont see anyone putting a brake on the slide, IMO it seems to be a control slide.
Just my opinion.

 

[qldfrog]

. They're in for one hell of a surprise and not in a good way. At least that bit won't be such a shock to the older half of the population.

Or some of the newer migrants

 

[kahuna1]

With extreme regret ....

USA markets closed at 4pm NY time and CV19 cases were 16,000-
By days close and west cost they were 19,400-.

Right now 24 hours after this .... reported cases are 24,148* with the West coast still in daylight.
A rise of 50% in 24 hours.
As mentioned .... testing levels were virtually ZERO till very recently as some imbecile believed they were immune.

Where it is by USA futures open tomorrow morning which proceeds our open ... the CV19 total ...

PLEASE CLOSE the market.
We close stores, pubs, even beaches and our borders.
If there were tornado's here only the stupid would stand outside.
A cyclone is known to be coming ... only an imbecile does not close and shutter their house.

USA markets rule the world. An act of stupidity led by a dictator who denied CV19, denied testing or action and a medical system the kleptocracy which runs the USA sadly now exposed is NOTHING to do with other economies or financial systems. IF as USA says USA first and repeatedly has taken self interested actions for the very few, the fate, of the many in our case, the AUSTRALIAN financial system swings in the balance.

I hope and wish those infected in the USA get better, hold extreme fears for the 500,000 homeless in the USA and the 1.5 million living out of cars who will be discarded, as usual. Change in an Oligarchy or Kleptocracy with a delusional leader is not possible. At 24,000 cases and population 13 times our size ... testing STILL at less than 20% of where it should be .... USA even right now is likely DOUBLE the relative numbers of Australia and sadly, the total is assured to rise and rise.

What this has to do with our system and our way of life is virtually nothing. They have a voting system and whilst recently they rejected some trying to get healthcare for all .... in fact Oligarchy leaders and the worlds 3rd richest man ran to block any and all change and it was revealed he spent 860 million USD or 1.3 billion AUD to do that. If Australia could offer aid to the USA ... we would ... they are our friends on the main despite our PM being hung up on the phone and treated as third class citizens and threatened with tariffs.

With regret we CAN do nothing other than watch the Tornado approach and hope, it is NOT as bad as it will be. Placing blame is an aside normally, but, CDC numbers on testing with 2.5 samples per person up till even last week were, not a good thing.
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/testing-in-us.html

Numbers are behind and
Number of specimens tested ... is NOT number of people ... its 2 if not 3 per person.

Does the RBA stand along with Scott Morrison like a stunned potato in the face of a tornado ?

Suggesting there is nothing to be gained by a pause in trading shows an extreme lack of knowledge of virtually every aspect of markets that is stunning to actually be shared, argued and displayed as a valid choice.

USA catches a cold in financial markets, as they used to say, and its very poor taste to USA this analogy, because the total and complete opposite is occurring right now.

What happens inside the USA, where this event ends and whilst longer term a vaccine will be found and anti viral s that appear to work will become more widespread in use. In the meantime, USA numbers of reported CV19 will sadly likely surpass Italy. Will they test the 500,000 homeless or families living in cars often bankrupted by the cost of medial care.

Does any of it have a single thing to do with the stability of the Australian financial system ? Rightly or wrongly Australian elected leaders implemented Medicare a long time ago and free universal healthcare. Both parties supported this along with a way of life we cherish but dont fully appreciate WHAT WE HAVE.

If you get sick, you get care if you loose your job you get help to get a new one that does not stop after 3 months and you end up on the street.

This crisis, whilst not a time to highlight the differences, is an event that exposed and until its passed which will be some time, exposes the hideous nature of the USA Kleptocracy. I dont have to be polite as a politician has to be. Don't have to fawn over the dear leader of the USA as our PM did and does. A dinner at the white house and he is the new lap dog.

We as a nation have 24 hours to choose to stand outside in an event like Cyclone Tracy which hit Darwin or to shelter till it passes. USA I am sure, even if they keep their markets open will emerge eventually.

Sadly we lack any and all political leadership in this nation. RBA has the mandate, and whilst its normally with goverment backing, rate decision and ones like this, they ARE independent. Phillip Lowe the RBA head and various other heads, some of whom I have met at various times NEED irrespective of instruction or guidance ... being independent ... must possibly, even against the governments wishes, take action. I have extreme respect for the RBA and its leaders and its BOARD.

Sadly they may need to take leadership over the desires or wishes of MR Potato head and his instructions via the White House. I know in the GFC, the RBA looked with disbelief at the USA and its actions leading to the event, for 3 minutes they globally went good on you Australia for polices, then ... well did the same again.

Liquidity was BAD .... prior to this, volatility exceeding even GFC levels and the storm is about to hit. Money markets and along with FX will operate as normal and RBA, as always, will provide liquidity and stability as is their role ALWAYS. As for equities, derivatives and high speed trading there is NO case that they contribute anything other than pain. TO say its a free market or whatever shows a stunning lack of understanding the the RBA and its herculean task at times like this to avert disaster.

Every day .... every single day the RBA changes and effects liquidity to implement its monetary policy. Something some seem to be oblivious totally to their daily role. In times of crisis the actions become more extreme if needed. When the currency goes troppo, to even suggest our currency is NOT a dirty float with serious intervention and at times support, or tapping on the brakes if needed is what THEY DO.

Having say a rout as a high speed computer senses some stock is vulnerable and sends it to 10% of the level it was last week, will and does send waves not just though equities but every single level of the financial system they are attempting to keep afloat.

USA .... with regret and my deepest sympathies for those whom I love dearly from the USA is facing a sobering reality about many things. This will continue till they are testing not 10,000 samples which is 4,000 people a day .... but likely the extent continues to be unknown till they reach our sort of levels of testing in relative terms which is 10,000 people a day .... so 13 times that for the USA and that's 130,000 people or say 300,000 samples and as of the 16th March they appear merely still only to be at 10,000 samples a day .... so double it for today .... they will have no idea for 10 or so days !!

Sobering .... having a system in the USA most ignored and took for granted if one had decent healthcare insurance as say 33% have, reality is 66% DO not and 33% HAVE NONE ....

This threat is an existential one, a global threat above and way beyond CV19.

USA itself and NOT CV19 is the threat. CV19 in time will be defeated and a vaccine along with anti virals clearly is on the way.

What the USA infected numbers reach is IRRELEVANT to most activities in Australia, Harsh but true. Our debt to GDP ratio is one of the lowest globally and forgotten and dismissed. Our banks just slashed dividends to shore up capital and then ISSUED and raised 10% more capital to make them even stronger PRIOR to any of these events. We have ZERO Federal debt denominated in foreign currency and whilst the idiot savant computer trading systems love trying to beat our currency down as they have in the past, and nearly 20 years ago, hedge funds attacked and sent it under 50 cents during the Asian Financial crisis when we didn't even have ANY federal net debt.

Either the RBA acts, or it does NOT. Either the Government and Treasury and RBA act together or, they stand outside during a cyclone and KNOWING what will occur and the Contagion of a financial crisis is akin to the spread of this damm Virus.

Why not make tongue kissing mandatory right now to help with CV19 ?

For the love of god, ACT ..... NOW and announce it tonight .... well prior to OPEN.
If USA wishes to keep its Equity and Derivative markets open good on them. The market exists both to provide avenues to raise and exchange ownership and capital. IT IS NON FUNCTIONING .... right at this very point of time and the STORM is YET to hit full force.

As a student as always of the markets, the 1929 fiasco and demise where 90% of value was shed and it took decades to recover spring to mind. I am not suggesting a depression or longer term impacts as a Vaccine will occur, social distancing works and whilst 1929 they did not act fiscally till too lat and NO real action occurred till after the event, this is not the case in 2020. Interest rates were slow to move as well.

We have .... and hopefully some more announcements prior to Monday occur and spending via govt here occurs. Rates are 0.25% and if anything NEGATIVE real rates.

That said, whilst equities were overvalued with NO risk factored in and 10% plus too high a month ago, to be in the USA 30% if not 40% lower and if we open Monday GFC shredding is passed likely is only going to get worse as USA CV19 cases rise and they face cascading stop losses as one market implodes it causes another to implode and panic and taking a 60% loss is better than 100%. Illogical, but having seen 50 or more of these events, its what occurs.

Oil and OPEC is side issue. At $20- a barrel 70% of all oil production is not profitable. NO new development, no wells to replace old ones, USA high cost fracking at break even of $60- and Tar sands the same, well .... in 2 years, whilst abundant supply for 100 years via new technology and awful things allowed such as dirty Tar sands, the price rises, and well at $100- every spigot will open and correct.

Can I say with any confidence if say we see, a sharp 50% loss from here to say 33% of current highs on equities, as illogical as it is, even for a brief instant in time ... weeks ... that many of our companies will cease to exist totally and sold for pennies, only to wake up in say 6 weeks from this delusional fog and CV19 cases being reported close to ZERO ... a vaccine well on its way, not 3 Anti Virals that work but 10 that seem to ...

Its a bit late to close the windows and shutter them for a cyclone Tracy event like the one that hit Darwin 12 hours after it and the bloody house itself is gone.

I am merely a student despite my years in the markets. Each event has its own causes, likely cures and at times needed central action.

It will be, what it will be.
I ask merely with good cause to TAKE ACTION ... prior to the event.
One could actually see what is going to occur PRIOR to our markets even opening as the USA equity derivatives open 40 minutes I think prior to ours.

If as I sadly suspect, the likely ... at this point ... opening does NOT occur, the opening price is Minus 5% and NO real trading occurs, sadly, the 13% next limit will I suspect be tested again without trading and then the 20% limit depending on where the CV19 case numbers are in the USA. Likely and with extreme remorse and sympathy and regret, mixed with disgust .... they are above 30,000 Morrow verses 16,000 prior to when the USA market was last open.

PLEASE JUST HIT THE PAUSE and stop trading for 14 days.

 

[rederob]

This won't help no.

For the younger readers - this was indeed broadcast for a period each morning and evening back in the days when TV stations closed overnight. It's a real thing yes, anyone over a certain age would have it somewhat etched into their mind. It was for tuning the TV properly back in the days of analogue, a process which involved turning various knobs until the picture looks right. It doesn't kill viruses though.

How come your ABC test pattern was in colour?
Ours was in black and white!

 

[kahuna1]

Note PM fathead announced his package.

With business hit by bush-fires ... NONE .... NOT one single one .... ZERO in 3 months have got a cent from promised govt support and 17 page application ....

As I walked for an hour and more USA west coast numbers came in ... the USA total .... rose by another 10% .... to 25.632- right now.


Whilst positive the spending, the practical side is TOTAL BS and Gridlock for even the fire events.

Still how to watch 18 billion spending be ignored .... is to OPEN markets tomorrow which MAY open higher here ... glances at the USA down ... will when Asia opens .... and then USA opens 12 hours latter make the use of a BB gun to stop a Rhino seem apt.

OF course if your 0ld , you may of course look at the ABC test page as seems to amuse some. Reading the same book over and over again having forgotten the start and plot also works. Re-gift the same present every birthday and its forever new.

 

[kahuna1]

Test pattern gone ////

Dear leader speaks ...

 

[kahuna1]

In his 2 hour 40 minute conference ..... TODAY ...

Dear leader ... of the world ...

 

[kahuna1]

Do we really want our equity levels tied to ...

This ... IDIOT who fired the whole pandemic team in 2018 and gave himself a score of 10/10 at 1,600 cases identified and its 25,000 plus and testing is at best 20% of the level it needs to be ?





CLOSE the equity side and derivatives,

Sure likely we OPEN up after the stimulus .... for 1 hour ? Or 2 ? or 12 hours till the USA hits its next limit down event .

Watch the above and decide.
Factual and sadly so.

Thankfully our govt WAS and is clearly more prepared. It will mater for ZERO in the total panic that is about to hit USA markets with good cause. An infection rate sadly which will rival Italy cannot be ruled out and that's ... well ... many times above current levels.

I wish NOT to spread fear, I wish it was NOT so. For my many friends int he USA and its people.

 

[kahuna1]

MEdia and Murdoch press here ...

PARROTED USA views .... dismissive and Sky news ,, telegraph and Australian papers. ... main source of news for many ....

Watch with NO food in your mouth the 180 degree turnaround they do. END OF THE WORLD NOW ... is the message.



Favorite is the cross eyed stupid judge and then its safe to fly woman ... no crowds and "its pretty much dead". Sad ... but so so true ... DEAD ... in a macabre way.

North Korea media which has zero factual content .. is better than the USA ... Take the time and watch. PLEASE ....

CLOSE THE MARKETS .... we are married to an imbecile until we part ways and TAKE measures to protect OUR nation.

 

[Trendnomics]

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/t...cations-of-a-sars-coronavirus-outbreak.35169/

Ahhh... Y2K ? Or Bird flu ? Or is it terrorists ?

Fear fear and more fear.

Relevance of this flu ? Or likely ? NOT much.

Ohh I forgot

Ebola ... maybe that is spreading ?

I want to shake the PM's hand in case I already have it !!

You have zero credibility on this matter - ignored.

 

[kahuna1]

Strange ... the worlds top 10 fund manager on the 2nd March ..., about 5 weeks after my own view shared ... and MINE had changed, MORE DATA ... it changed ... was shall we say aware of the issue, as was I, more concerned ... as was I ... verses 25th January.

If I listened to your utterings warnings and rants ... about the end of the world ... I never would invest in anything at any time. As for your mechanical trading systems ... boy ... let me sell you my
secret system for 50k ?

Your and your credibility is as always zero.
I sadly quote experts today NOT my own view .... Experts ... and on the 25th January .... even the 2nd March ... the market was barely moved. Quite different today. NOPE ... nothing changed. Is your system working ? Possibly if you send another 50k for the latest version it will work ?

What I thought about the latest end of the world utterings ... on the 25th Jan, for once. Wrong ... admitted and well its not really the end of the world. It will pass. Of course I could be wrong. Admitted and accepted. If it does ... so be it.

As you say my credibility zero .... please share your expertise on anything. My view never changed ... actions never changed and what I thought as evidence was presented, did not change over time, is well just as stupid as those using trading systems I see you paid a lot of money for.

You must live in a bubble to suggest I am similar to your .... infallibility and foresight.

 

[kahuna1]

Might be strange if this was ... my view on the 2nd March ... identical to this ....

In relation to the spreading virus it appears too early to forecast sensibly the primary and derivative (supply chain, counterparty, psychological, behavioural ,political, centralbank, fiscaletc) economic implications (including incidence, severity and duration).

Political risks and uncertainty also elevated in February, contributing to falls in previously strong equity prices. At month end , interest rates reached even lower record levels. Medium and longer term economic implications of the virus and the other factors on investment, inflation, markets etc might be different to short term implications.

This is of course a top line 50th out of 10,000 fund mangers view over the last decade.

It would be unfair ... but such is life, that one of the largest fund managers a few days after this issued ... the following from their CIO ... the guy who also makes decisions ....

On the 6th March
US stocks are not expensive, despite their stretched valuations. In fact, it's all just a matter of "gravity" or the historically low interest rate environment

"A lot of people are making comments that markets are very, very expensive and stocks are expensive,"

NAMELESS CIO fund manger .... argued investors shouldn't rely on central banks to predict an economic crash.

"All the central banks missed it last time - and that's their full-time job," he said.

"So have some caution. We are always looking for downside risk; we want to try and get a very balanced view of what's going on in this world that none of us have ever seen before; this low interest rate world."

I do wonder since I have mentioned my respect for one ... and not so much for the latter on this site ... .

Would it be fair to call one of the largest asset managers in Australia with an impressive track record an imbecile ? Because he was ... even at that date the 6th March sprouting Trumpish views ?

I am a big boy and whilst ... I cared NOT to share any view on this site for 6 weeks, due to ... well ... trolls ... imbeciles and others. I am not disappointed yet again .... so THANKS.

It does not mean my view did not change as time went on.

Still for some, the losses their very expensive trading system has racked up of late ... and their perverse use of faith ... and tools is amusing. please dont take out your lack of skill on me, nor buying the 50k trading system that does not work.
I suggest chanting at your screen may make your secret system work better.

Take care

 

[rederob]

I actually agree with the idea of closing markets, but for much longer - minimum 6 weeks - and with all equity markets participating.
Markets for physical delivery are different matter.
My rationale was simple. Equity markets should be about investing, not short-term trading. We have since turned equity markets into a sick game of monopoly that also combines snakes and ladders with roulette.
The problem we have is, that as with COVID-19, there is no global leadership.

 

[Smurf1976]

I actually agree with the idea of closing markets, but for much longer - minimum 6 weeks - and with all equity markets participating.

I'd agree subject to things like the oil and gold price being frozen at the same time.

Reason = it's the little guy who'll be trading OOO or GOLD, it's not Warren Buffet or some investment bank doing that and it seems rather unreasonable to effectively lock someone into a position whilst the underlying market carries on.

If the markets are actually shut and it's done in a manner which advantages any group or country then the inevitable transfer of wealth from the masses to the rich resulting from that will lend a fair bit of credibility to conspiracy theories about the whole thing.

 

[rederob]

Reason = it's the little guy who'll be trading OOO or GOLD, it's not Warren Buffet or some investment bank doing that and it seems rather unreasonable to effectively lock someone into a position whilst the underlying market carries on.

They are part of the equity markets @Smurf1976 and while there are some types that don't fit a company structure, they were not part of what I was considering.
I meant instead those markets which relate to physical delivery requirements relating to contracts such as the many commodity futures.

 

[kahuna1]

Hmmm

listened to the news. Always a mistake.Even the PM saying or implying a lock-down will be 4 months if not more .... astounding.
USA is NOT testing people and in fact has run out of tests and asks people NOT to get tested ... REALLY ?


Obviously end of the world ... when the leader of USA task force actually says you need not get tested even if your sick. WTF ? They have run out of tests.

All non essentials in OZ closed tomorrow so ... unless the stock exchange is something other than the volatility machine it is at present, that means them. Likely NOT ... given some other stupidity being dosed out liberally.

This will pass, eventually ... via a pause and isolation, spread will reduce and hopefully to sporadic levels as a vaccine is somewhere found along with one or many more anti virals. I missed that from our PM totally and his potato head speech.

I am still agog at USA ..., sorry we have no tests ... even of your sick ... only for healthcare workers and USA to be renamed New Sudan or Somalia
I am sure of markets open ... they will remain calm as Posiden adventure the movie. Likely Rambo will be unleashed in a bad mood and make it all better ?

Maybe someone can lend the USA some tests, but then again China is the target of USA bile ....

Astounding times. Sad, but astounding.

It goes without saying I thought identifying if someone was infected, even isolated and if they HAD not infected others say family with them was a good thing ? Not the USA .... for now.

Sad ...
I am still unclear if the close our markets and given the tone of the PM Potato head speech ... will they release likely mayhem ? Panic and the rest ? Or pause ?

Unclear. USA reported cases will ... be less factual than even the Chinese numbers initially for openly admitted reasons.

If not tested and your wife and 3 kids not infected, does that in the USA impart some immunity because Trumps yes person said it out loud ? Whilst not oblivious to the risks well aware of the WAYS to limit spread and NOT about to break them and risk myself or others, some .... well ... concern is there.

If I was in the USA and heard that ? The only way to stop the spread is to isolate and TEST and if infected ... isolate Infected and non infected.

I must have heard a bad dream and imagined the person next to Trump the very short guy say that .... out loud.