Sean K Trading

[Sean K]

Do you consider @Sean K PMGOLD a long term hold if it slowly appreciates or a sell if it goes ballistic ?

I've bought and sold PMGOLD and my most recent average buyin on my holdings is about the same as yours but a bit diluted by a recent large buy being hammered by the $AUD gain. My intention is not to sell anytime before I cark it.

gg

gg, Medium term, but not a forever hold. Will add on weakness, but not much. I'm adjusting my plan on everything I hold on a day to day basis depending on the macro and micro environment. The short to medium term narrative for gold looks very strong to me. But, no idea how long it's going to last. I am absolutely certain that China is going to go to war over Taiwan in the next 2-5 years, and gold will go bananas. It's only an arse pluck what price gold goes to then and when to take the money and run to the doomsday bunker. SK

 

[qldfrog]

average .... hmmm

the lastest single holding is currently over $30k and the lowest are whole cents ( less than $1)



many are 'bottom drawer ' drawer stocks

aka the investment cash has been retrieved ( sometimes several times over ) and i am still up more than 6 times , so they just sit there are ( often pay me some divs and franking credits ) the reverse is true on others the cash has been burnt , and the losses are over 90% uncrystallized .. so since the sale of those will not cover the brokerage .. i let them rot

remember i am retired and several stocks are barely worth a glance ( like CCE ) other releases mesh up with other holdings ( say the stocks SOL invests in ) i also hold several LICs so they give their insights into investments

and by the way i prefer to invest long term so $10 either way on BHP or MQG doesn't get me excited

i am more interested on where a company is headed rather than what they did last year

the BIG trap is to remember to factor REAL inflation into those price gains ( up 20% over 10 years isn't so impressive , unless they have demerged stuff all the way )

all that stuff you worry about IS important to YOU , you are young and still learning/growing your strategy , so don't let me talk you out of what is working for YOU

my strategy is mostly long term , but i take sensible opportunities on the way

About inflation Monsieur @divs4ever
i am surprised you often state in posts things like:
"I got XXX at $2 in 2010, currently at 2.30 so not interested unless below $2.10"
Obviously figures for example only.

And i have often thought, you want these shares at a price forgetting inflation?
If real inflation is at nearly 10pc a year, we need to take that into account.
Aparte closed

 

[divs4ever]

About inflation Monsieur @divs4ever
i am surprised you often state in posts things like:
"I got XXX at $2 in 2010, currently at 2.30 so not interested unless below $2.10"
Obviously figures for example only.

And i have often thought, you want these shares at a price forgetting inflation?
If real inflation is at nearly 10pc a year, we need to take that into account.
Aparte closed

inflation IS taken into account , but so is a realistic appraisal of the economy ( and that particular sector ) and the chances that the business will find a path back from the current situation

while not a devout fan of Warren Buffet i do see wisdom in some of his quotes ( and apply them when appropriate )

so if i see a good business ( say WHC or XRF ) being brutally bashed ( say down more than 50% since the initial buy , i think very carefully first , but DO inject some more cash )

normally i ask myself that question when i see a ( good ) stock down 20% on my average price , but also i can be quick to leave if a company moves in a direction i don't like ( WBC , FMG , EML , MAQ , ISX as examples especially if in a profit , but i will crystallize losses as well

fun fact my current largest holding is PME

IF i had not reduced the original holding the value of the holding would have been more than 10% more than my current portfolios combined .. now PME currently returns ( on my buy price ) a 200% (+) return per year

so the question is if you had just one share like that ( and no others ) how would you sleep at night ( sitting on a 31,000% gain but at full cash risk )


some decisions aren't easy ( even in hindsight )

 

[Sean K]

Finished well. Something fishy going on with this since mid Aug. I think sellers had simply dried up and nothing more. But, I'm not counting chickens with this stock. It's been a disaster. And, my ave buy price is actually higher than 8c, I was going off my new trading account numbers that don't consider when I first bought in yonks ago. I'm afraid to go to my master spreadsheet to see what my real average is.

Completely bailed on this one @Garpal Gumnut. Licking my wounds for the moment. Should have done so a couple of sessions ago. Probably suffered from the general market negativity. Bad timing.

 

[Sean K]

Topped up SVM at 61c after the inexplicable crash in the SP two days ago. Was waiting for some bad news but instead RIO increased its stake to 19.9%. Can only assume they're ready to take a much larger stake and own it outright.

Slowly getting to the point of having about 10% in most stocks, except IOZ which will go to 20% and then add an international ETF around the same %. as a base holding. Still working on a plan as to what % I allocate to general equities, resource ETFs and specs. Might be around the 40/30/30 mark eventually.

 

[BossMan.]

Topped up SVM at 61c after the inexplicable crash in the SP two days ago. Was waiting for some bad news but instead RIO increased its stake to 19.9%. Can only assume they're ready to take a much larger stake and own it outright.

Slowly getting to the point of having about 10% in most stocks, except IOZ which will go to 20% and then add an international ETF around the same %. as a base holding. Still working on a plan as to what % I allocate to general equities, resource ETFs and specs. Might be around the 40/30/30 mark eventually.

View attachment 184181

What percentage is cash? Still sitting on a huge pile?

 

[Sean K]

What percentage is cash? Still sitting on a huge pile?

 

[qldfrog]

View attachment 184185

Don't we feel good on a day like today?

 

[Captain_Chaza]

View attachment 184185

My father used to say " Cash Burns a Hole in Your Pockets"

 

[Sean K]

My father used to say " Cash Burns a Hole in Your Pockets"
View attachment 184196

I agree, I really want to get rid of it, but I'm not going to throw it away.

 

[Sean K]

In line with concentrating the portfolio and getting rid of some dead wood I jettisoned CEL for a 60% loss last week but added to SVM.

Learnt some very good lessons with CEL on judging management and their sales pitches. When they start exaggerating at best and lying at worst, it's time to bail.

I'm obviously top heavy PMs and have been for some time, but will probably add to a few positions Monday on the breakout. Even though there's sure to be more consolidation after this little jump.

I don't want to miss out on ducati's gold forecasts.

 

[Sean K]

Even though ETPMAG gapped up a bit, silver looks like it might be going to catch up to gold so I did top up at ave $42.60. Up to 11% of holdings. Will probably correct back down now...

FFM hitting ATH this am on some geophysics which may be more significant that most realise. They came out with an ann on 3 Sep analysing the success of their DHEM work which looked highly effective in identifying mineralisation and it now looks like they might have some additional loads at depth adjacent to the current resources. Could be very significant, unless they're just ramping it.

From 3 Sep:

 

[qldfrog]

Even though ETPMAG gapped up a bit, silver looks like it might be going to catch up to gold so I did top up at ave $42.60. Up to 11% of holdings. Will probably correct back down now...

FFM hitting ATH this am on some geophysics which may be more significant that most realise. They came out with an ann on 3 Sep analysing the success of their DHEM work which looked highly effective in identifying mineralisation and it now looks like they might have some additional loads at depth adjacent to the current resources. Could be very significant, unless they're just ramping it.

From 3 Sep:

View attachment 184328

I switched some etpmag to you thus morning and got a bit more gold instead as i was maybe too heavy silver vs gold

 

[Sean K]

I switched some etpmag to you thus morning and got a bit more gold instead as i was maybe too heavy silver vs gold

Thanks mate.

 

[Sean K]

Topped up a few WIRE on what looks like a potential bottom and break from downward trend thanks to the Fed.

Could explode into pieces at any moment though.

Takes it up to 6% of holdings.

 

[Sean K]

This week's update:

(edit: added % holdings column and graph)

 

[Sean K]

Added some URNM at ave $7.73. Now up to 8% holding. Probably too early, but I think it's come off enough for a longer term play.

 

[Sean K]

Topped up HCH ave 88c just on chart action. Still just 3.5% of holdings but will bail if the bottom isn't actually in.

 

[Sean K]

Sold S32 at 3.455 for a few dollars down. Happy to clear that from the decks and move on to something else.

 

[finicky]

Sean, where are you parking cash? I'm thinking of bonds or interest etfs for the first time, like AAA, VGB .....
Just looking for things to check out and be interested in your choices.
Bit concerned by spectre of bail-ins or confiscation in a bust.