Sean K Trading

[Sean K]

Bit concerned by spectre of bail-ins or confiscation in a bust.

Yes, I've thought about that myself. I think there's some guarantee from the gov on a small amount but if we were looking in imminent real dire straits economically I'd be spreading it around. At the moment just sitting in an NAB high interest account (4.5%) linked to my trading account and it allows me to transfer money in and out immediately, no cost. Looked into higher interest accounts but they have entry exit rules that I don't like.

 

[finicky]

Thanks mate, I am thinking bonds might be more untouchable and as I deliberately build up cash I move outside the government deposit guarantee, which assumes they'll be in a position to honour it anyway. Spreading it around different banks is a drag but might be a way to go. I moved almost everything into a NABtrade high interest account because CBA was paying a rip-off nothing rate on my 'direct investment account' (CDIA). That's the one that is linked to my commsec trading account for direct deposits and withdrawals when I transact shares. Been too casual about it

 

[Sean K]

A fairly quiet week. Topped up URNM and HCH.

Sold all of S32 for a 6% loss which then promptly jumped 5% today.

Bought more WIRE the previous Friday and was very tempted to add some more today and take it up to 10% of holdings but I froze in the headlights. I love the very short term and long term copper story, but not sure about what happens in between. Might have missed an opportunity.

FFM doing a CR was a worry but it held up extremely well. Looks like I'll be into the SPP for quite a bit at this stage.

As per DEG thread, I saw a good opportunity to buy the break up for a short term trade, but didn't bother. Just didn't want something else to short term manage as I've got a few things going on at the moment and away from the screen a bit. DEG movement may have been off the back of rumours about Ignico taking a bite and others in the data room but where there's smoke there's fire on this one IMO.

Not taking any profits off the PMs until I see a USD3 in front of the gold price. Even if there's an inevitable correction back to some support, it's got a way to go I think.

Now 67% cash.

I put $50 on the Swans to win the AFL granny at the start of year. Only got 5:1 way back then but will be my shout at the RIH if they get up.

 

[peter2]

A quiet week? Mate I thought you'd have money flowing in the front door and all the windows. Your only concern was making sure the back door was closed. Our precious metal finally rallied, copper, go you good thing. Uranium wants to go higher. Gold/silver strongest up trend of the year. Even iron ore perked up and dare I say it, lithium got off it's death bed.

You've got to do something about all those flea bitten mutts your holding on to. S32 was the least of your concerns.

 

[Sean K]

A quiet week? Mate I thought you'd have money flowing in the front door and all the windows. Your only concern was making sure the back door was closed. Our precious metal finally rallied, copper, go you good thing. Uranium wants to go higher. Gold/silver strongest up trend of the year. Even iron ore perked up and dare I say it, lithium got off it's death bed.

You've got to do something about all those flea bitten mutts your holding on to. S32 was the least of your concerns.

Yes, was a very good week to just sit back and watch all the greenery.

Just three fleabags now, not worth selling at the moment. S2R is a hold and hope. KNG is a hold and pray. SSR I blame on finicky.

 

[finicky]

SSR I blame on finicky.

 

[Sean K]

Didn't do a thing this week, just watching, waiting, focussing on gym and walking the mut.



Investing the way I am at the moment has meant I've got a lot of free time. I probably only need a couple of hours a day to be tracking the macro economic environment and watching announcements and analysing results.

So, I start doing some casual Personal Training at my local leisure centres in the coming weeks as a side hobby. I've also just enrolled to do some post-grad sports science at Deakin. I'm just needing something else to keep the brain going and have some more people contact. If I enjoy it I might angle to get some hours with the Victorian Institute of Sport to prep athletes for the Brisbane Games. Might be fun to get involved in.

 

[bsnews]

Forget all that, the real investment is in NDIS. Register you own company and then apply the Personal Training at an inflated price WIN!

 

[Sean K]

Forget all that, the real investment is in NDIS. Register you own company and then apply the Personal Training at an inflated price WIN!

LOL. I'm providing free PT to veteran's at the moment, so I don't think I need to skin the NDIS cat.

 

[divs4ever]

Didn't do a thing this week, just watching, waiting, focussing on gym and walking the mut.

View attachment 185368

Investing the way I am at the moment has meant I've got a lot of free time. I probably only need a couple of hours a day to be tracking the macro economic environment and watching announcements and analysing results.

So, I start doing some casual Personal Training at my local leisure centres in the coming weeks as a side hobby. I've also just enrolled to do some post-grad sports science at Deakin. I'm just needing something else to keep the brain going and have some more people contact. If I enjoy it I might angle to get some hours with the Victorian Institute of Sport to prep athletes for the Brisbane Games. Might be fun to get involved in.

regarding your comments

IOZ .. while i am impatient for the correction as well , i worry any real downturn will be mangled by another round of 'picking winners ' aka a 'K-shaped' recovery ala 2020

WIRE .. will they actually admit a depression , especially reflecting on a failing ' Green agenda '

cheers

 

[Sean K]

regarding your comments

IOZ .. while i am impatient for the correction as well , i worry any real downturn will be mangled by another round of 'picking winners ' aka a 'K-shaped' recovery ala 2020

WIRE .. will they actually admit a depression , especially reflecting on a failing ' Green agenda '

cheers

My theory with IOZ was to buy significant dips in order to beat the market over time. On the surface that sounds OK but my cash is only earning 4.5% which I need to offset against gains in IOZ. I haven't got a formula to work out if this strategy would be any good over time. I need to add an international index ETF or two, but haven't decided which ones yet.

I'm counting on WIRE to be a good long term play and will just add on weakness. Some analysts are calling it the 'trade of the decade'. Unless there's a substitute for copper in the next 20 years then it's only going one way. A depression will affect everything, but when we stop building stuff copper will suffer. Will come out the other end with a roar though.

 

[divs4ever]

A depression will affect everything, but when we stop building stuff copper will suffer. Will come out the other end with a roar though.

that would depend on if the digitization/AI trend continues after the depression , any civil unrest during the depression could topple governments and change agendas , sure some copper demand will return but would that be more or less demand than currently

copper miners been less than impressive as an investment theme ( not as tragic as nickel ) , but iron seems to be the consistent winner if the miner can line up the ducks properly

My theory with IOZ was to buy significant dips in order to beat the market over time.

i did that with VAS in 2011 , and that worked back then , but will that work next time , with some governments willing to 'pick winners ' as they did in the pandemic

now sure i did nicely during the pandemic ( in fact overwhelmed with choices ) but that was picking individuals stocks ( and LICs ) rather than index funds ( i was selling the 'reverse index' funds at the time to fund the shopping spree )

if the government was to throw life-lines to the mega-caps ( the BIG banks and say CSL ) the savings might not be so impressive as a all market correction

slightly off topic , but locally SERIOUS concerns are now being raised at the proposed shutdown of the 3G network in the area , as it still provides a significant part of the coverage in the ( rural ) area , now sure the farm has a copper landline ( via a special request ) but how many others in South-West Queensland will be inconvenienced

if this is a symptom of modernization digital services demand outside major cities will plummet

 

[Sean K]

Thinking about adding a few VGS as my International ETF. The Vanguard international and diversified ETFs all seem to be performing around the same, so might be just a matter of choosing one and then using the BTD plan over time to even out the costs and beat it's own benchmark. Still not sure if that theory is solid.

Last added ETPMAG on the mid Sep break up which has been tested and moved higher. Now watching for another break up from consolidation, but with fundamentals and technicals looking good I might as well take another nibble. It's already 10% and with SVL (spec) makes up 15% total Silver. Gold at 32%. Yikes, 47% PMs - I'm running a PM fund.

 

[Sean K]

I've dipped my toe in the VGS pool. Markets will crash now.

Going to slowly add over the coming weeks to take it up to same holding as IOZ. Ultimately they will be part of my longer term income plan.

 

[dyna]

Gold at 32%. Yikes, 47% PMs - I'm running a PM fund.

So now I know what PM means .
Precious Metals !
I've always been reading it , here on the forum as , "Perth effin Mint " ( etf )

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

I've dipped my toe in the VGS pool. Markets will crash now.

Going to slowly add over the coming weeks to take it up to same holding as IOZ. Ultimately they will be part of my longer term income plan.

It is very difficult to work this market out atm, Sean @Sean K . I've had a dollar each way, gone to cash ($USD) on my personal trading account yesterday and last night/early this morning and left my SMSF intact.

If there is a general sell off I don't reckon it will be too deep and I'd not be surprised to be wrong on my decision to go to cash. Your trading pie chart looks reasonable to me for someone with a bullish outlook.

I must look at VGS.

gg

 

[Sean K]

Weekly update:

 

[Sean K]

Paid for a portion of the FFM SPP (cost 95c) today which will take it up to 11% of my stock holdings. Closed at $1.045 today so hopefully no calamities in the next few days before the shares are issued.

Risk is that the MRE 'upgrade' coming this month will disappoint and the stock will be smashed, making this decision dumbarse.

I only suspect this might be the case because they've gone to the market prior to the MRE update. Why do that when they had enough cash to keep going for another year? Yes, the SP took off and copper was flavour of the month. But, sceptic Sean smells something. I hope I am wrong, wayyyy wrong.

 

[Sean K]

Added a few more VGS, taking it to 5.4%, ave buy price $128.50. I was going to wait for a dip but it's running away a little. Not going to fight the bulls. Some decent support to the downside not far away. US debt and tech valuations scaring me, but I still have a lot of dry powder.

 

[Sean K]

As threatened last week, I've added a few more ETPMAG ave $44.20. Now 11% stock holdings. People are catching on that silver follows gold.