All trading needs to cease for 14 days prior to Monday open in Sydney

[IFocus]

Kahuna always respect your take on things but the markets must remain open its the only a valuation can be made.

Also it puts pressure on the likes of Trump etc when they fail to react.

 

[Smurf1976]

Kahuna always respect your take on things but the markets must remain open its the only a valuation can be made.

I see some other issues with any shut down too:

1. It sends a very clear message to the public that there's a serious financial problem. Expect a run on physical cash at the banks if the public perceives that things are in peril financially beyond simply seeing share and oil prices decline etc. Actually shutting the market would send a message that things are stuffed.

2. Changing the rules in the middle of the game reduces future confidence. It adds a new layer of risk to the concept of owning shares.

 

[kahuna1]

Astounding ... disturbing ... alarming dogs breakfast press announcement.

Why open ? The tornado from the USA when you have their supposed head going DON'T get tested we dont have enough tests, and numbers by open even with this astounding ... comment ... likely 40,000 there verses 16,000 on Friday close.

I likely and possibly ... not surprisingly ... have everything wrong on estimating a vaccine in the 4-9 month range and down closer to the 6 month region as opposed to initial 9 months expected. A view I might add, not my own but one expressed by 5 different EU nations. To have our PM ... doubling that ... hmm.

It contradicts peak science bodies and their up to date live announcements and estimates. Link already given.

This to one side ....

Markets ... RBA will decide or so it now appears NOT decide. A failing sadly ... one I suspect has ZERO upside and potentially massive downside, not just a one day 20% hit ... a cascading imploding effect on the fabric of many fragile economic relationships and interdependence not obvious until one thing crumbles and another seemingly unrelated thing tumbles and another is forced to act and on and on we go.

Announcement of relaxing reporting rules and essentially no one goes broke and directors responsibilities relaxed during the crisis is identical to EU nations already announced actions mid last week. I would again point out the USA fell 10% in 8 hours from its peak ... to close on its low ... despite this. Whilst good and positive, a week would be too short to digest what has just occurred. Casinos closed ... well at a minimum their stocks should be asking for suspension .... no income coming in, a fair amount of debt and stuff going out. Who owns the debt ? Who is at risk ?

I am merely touching on the very tip of the iceberg and when I thought, maybe we isolate for 14 to 21 days and whilst not IMMUNE ... not until a vaccine the spread rate would drop, to have it implied its 4 months likely longer 6 and even 12 mentioned ... contradicts virtually every other nations advice. YES for now contain identify and test test test ... flatten the bloody curve and socially isolate and it WORKS.

This was NOT the message I got from the PM. Not by a long shot. Sure ... end result is the same but by reading the riot act, which yes is needed to stop spread, but instead of if we DONT act stupidly ... in 2-4 weeks ... those infected identified and isolated and some normalcy comes back, all be it with social distancing, the message given was .... 4 months 6, 12 ... possibly longer and what the hell happens to lenders to Crown casino or Star in the meantime ?

Hence why ... with respect ... we need to pause ALL TRADING BY ourselves.

USA and its message of ... we have run out of tests, you dont need to get tested ... and coupled with infections being more than double as of close of Friday and NOT small numbers ... ones even for the USA size that, well ... are already chilling.

Scientists via the links provided know incubation mean time is 5.5 says but some are not shown via testing for 12.5 days. Family with one infected and say 3 kids really could be pass the buck for 2 months IF NOT TESTED and that's the USA response for now ? You dont need it ?

I wish NOT to be astounded or alarming, but ... have they lost their mind ? USA.

Have the Australian goverment and this dogs breakfast even thought WHAT the hell happens closing down a few bushiness with billion in debt does ? OR can do ? Cascade that through to contagion and well we have a reason to be alarmed. Sure if the announced at the same time we support and will 100% back these not tiny things ... which did not occur, maybe they might have been a lot more detail rather than something that was put in place without thought... well ... filling in the missing pieces.

The case for a pause ... and I am sue the govt will step in to support say Qantas and the casino's but ... until well ... set out, as WAS the case for Airlines was to some extent, to willy nilly close things I do understand. It would help ... if what support they GET in the interim was also spelt out in BIG LETTERS.

Too hard. Tomorrow a dogs breakfast for all ....

I know our PM denies climate science and took a lump of coal into parliament. Not sure if his version of faith is akin to USA VP Pence .. who denies all science. Clearly PM message contradicted his own SCIENCE guy and his message given on Friday on timelines and doubled it.' One is a doctor ... one is ... a well .... whatever ...

I think one can safely say beyond science ... PM has NO idea about business or markets or banks .... ZERO ...

Golly .. will that help the ASX ?

Paul Keating at least on his Banana republic speech on 14th May 1986 had some idea of what he was doing and saying. Absent ... totally today.

 

[basilio]

Too hard. Tomorrow a dogs breakfast for all ....

That's the money shot. Totally agree. It will be very hard to find buyers at anything except bottom feeder prices.

Those with Balls of Steel should set up buy bids at 15% plus discounts to current prices on Banks and other blue chip stocks. I reckon the early sales will test these levels. So buy in haste - and then wait for axe.

The fact is we have not even started this journey. We haven't seen a million plus people out of work. We havn't heard the screams of frustration from desperate broke people attempting to deal with a hopelessly overloaded Centrelink.

We havn't had nightly news stories of queues of small business owners broken and bankrupted.

The hospitals aren't filled with screaming relatives, doctors and staff all unable to handle an ever increasing stream of sickness and death.

Parents haven't had to face stroppy kids and teenagers demanding to be let out to chase and catch the various interests they have cultivated which-they-really-don't-want-their -stuffy-parents-to-know -about.

Perhaps Kahuna does carry on a bit. Doesn't change the validity of his concerns IMV.

 

[Smurf1976]

Perhaps Kahuna does carry on a bit. Doesn't change the validity of his concerns IMV.

There are very serious problems, no question about that, but pausing the trading of shares won't solve them in the slightest.

With respect it looks like a classic case of hitching an unrelated agenda to an otherwise valid cause.

I could equally say that because of the virus we all need to cook a BBQ tomorrow and all wattle trees must be cut down by not later than Tuesday afternoon. It won't help in the slightest of course but nor will closing the ASX. It's a human virus, not a computer virus.

Anyone who does not wish to participate in the market can easily avoid doing so with the market remaining fully operational. There's no compulsion for anyone to invest in it.

 

[aus_trader]

It's a human virus, not a computer virus.

Smurf, you nailed it with this one comment
If the exchange was infected or hacked, I understand the closing of the markets till the issue is resolved.

Kahuna contradicts himself saying people need to set Stop Losses etc. How are the stop losses going to be executed if the markets are closed ?

On the opposite side of the universe, if there is some miracle cure or a vaccine gets developed in the next 14 days the markets are likely to have the biggest rallies we have seen in a long time. Except none of us will be trading it's upside since Kahuna has shut the market

 

[kahuna1]

There are very serious problems, no question about that, but pausing the trading of shares won't solve them in the slightest.

Nope .... the fact that you have, nor do I, and I have somewhat more idea, for me to admit ... I have no idea of the implications of what the Potato Head just announced ... the ripple effect .... and suggesting even for second ... opening a market who has similar total lack of any real idea will solve ... help or aid the situation ....

Yes of course it will NOT solve the situation ... I never suggested it.

Are you awake ?

It could very well SAVE the situation and IT WILL cause more harm than good opening at this point in time.


PAUSE and take a deep breath. Then take another and another.

It will be ... what it will be ....

38,211 USA cases as of 5.37 am and a few hours PRIOR to USA derivatives opening.

TWO out of three dashboards .... on the USA total ... HAVE STOPPED UPDATING ... about 7,000 cases ago. Possibly a technical glitch ... likely NOT. Bloomberg and Johns Hopkins ... trackers... NO longer seem to function.

DEAR LEADER Trump..... was pushing for more powers and that anti aircraft gun has a lot of political and media it needs to take care of under advice of Kim Ill Jung on what works.

The tune from Apocalypse now ... is playing very loudly ...



Enjoy the movie ... Market, if opened, will be more amusing.

Must run ... knocks at the door at 5.45 am ... men with rubber hoses ?
Hello .... thud ... have no fear the Chihuahua has latched onto his groin and she has just snacked. Funny the shrill scream he. or I should say she, is now emitting ... they both are girls now. There goes the second, now a new she-male ... and the third now neutered.

Whoops they just wanted to read the bible !!

 

[kahuna1]

38,211 USA cases as of 5.37 am and a few hours PRIOR to USA derivatives opening.

38,936- cases at 6.37 am and still many hours till end of day West coast USA where its 12.45 PM just after lunch.

Two of the main tracking sites for unknown reasons STOPPED working.
Google search even does not list them any longer. Nor the site I prefer. It comes up using other search engines as either number one or two. It is MIA. Several other sites now working taking data from actual state sites in the USA .... despite this ... effort

Have a total tested to date USA and whilst, a massive improvement ... as mentioned test kits and CDC comments scary. Still at about 10% only of those needed to be tested and a MID of most EU nations tested and our own. That tests are in short supply and the head of the CDC is asking NOT to get tested unless your sick it .. is .. what it is .... USA USA USA .... for your enjoyment the following is ... our president speaking. Soothing the press ...



Our PM just had a smirk on his face ... the whole time.

Oh to be a peasant !!

Australia with a mere 25 million has done MORE CV19 tests than the USA and its 13 times the size as of right NOW. Sadly ... the total and issue is not one that needs explaining for the USA and likely outcome. A poll of media users found a mere 38% of Fox news viewers were concerned about the virus.

 

[kahuna1]

How amusing ....

Site by site ... the numbers DROP magically by 7-8.000 USA cases.
What was 38,936 cases on 4 different sites and HOUR ago .... in the USA ... is 32,346 cases .... REALLY ..... so NO new cases in 12 hours.

I must lend them my little dog.

LMFAO ... this is absurd USA i action. Since they stripped it off individual state reporting ... quite amusing the message is OUT ...

Ssshhhh .... its defeated again.

 

[rederob]

There are very serious problems, no question about that, but pausing the trading of shares won't solve them in the slightest.

With respect it looks like a classic case of hitching an unrelated agenda to an otherwise valid cause.

I could equally say that because of the virus we all need to cook a BBQ tomorrow and all wattle trees must be cut down by not later than Tuesday afternoon. It won't help in the slightest of course but nor will closing the ASX. It's a human virus, not a computer virus.

Anyone who does not wish to participate in the market can easily avoid doing so with the market remaining fully operational. There's no compulsion for anyone to invest in it.

It is true that closing the stock exchange won't cure COVID-19.
I thought long and hard before posting why I believed a very long closure was necessary.
My view is that markets will contribute unnecessarily to the pervading doom and gloom. We who are in the market can instead put our thoughts to more pressing matters and have one less thing to worry about for a few months.
Most importantly I reached the conclusion that the net effect of remaining open will not be much different to having it closed and re-opening in 6 weeks time - or longer. On the other hand, the millions of mum & dad investors that are presently rattled by what is happening are likely to make many poor trading decisions, and be scalped by market professionals.
That will destroy the mental health of many, along with their ability to recover what are likely to already be heavy losses.

 

[kahuna1]

Really .... are they kidding ?

Rhode Island ... tiny state ... their state numbers, WHAT used to feed into data until 90 mins ago.
83 cases as of NOW ...
https://health.ri.gov/data/covid-19/

SOURCE data .... FACTUAL ...
then I go to the NEW BS versions of trackers ...
Bloomberg .... well

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2020-united-states-coronavirus-outbreak/

66 cases ...

Bigger states .... BIGGER BS.
Who do you believe ? NO cases in 12 hours in the USA ?
Source data ... factual individual states ?

Clearly the sites running a service over the last 2 hours one by one ... have been read the riot act in the USA. National interest ?

Whatever. Sad but obvious ....


And Bloomberg ....



Tra la la la ...

Trump strikes again ... its all fake from whatever perspective you wish to be.
Basically the count dropped 20% in 50 minutes .... 83 real is 66 NOW .... its even exact across each state ... I NOW check .... magic 20% drop ... source FACTUAL data times 80% and NEW improved TRUMP data.

Pity they need to test say 1 million in the USA ...to have any idea CV19 totals and have only tested 211k or done 211k tests. Some like doctors and nurses done I suspect more than once.

 

[SirRumpole]

It is true that closing the stock exchange won't cure COVID-19.
I thought long and hard before posting why I believed a very long closure was necessary.
My view is that markets will contribute unnecessarily to the pervading doom and gloom. We who are in the market can instead put our thoughts to more pressing matters and have one less thing to worry about for a few months.
Most importantly I reached the conclusion that the net effect of remaining open will not be much different to having it closed and re-opening in 6 weeks time - or longer. On the other hand, the millions of mum & dad investors that are presently rattled by what is happening are likely to make many poor trading decisions, and be scalped by market professionals.
That will destroy the mental health of many, along with their ability to recover what are likely to already be heavy losses.

I think you might be right, but if the market is closed, for how long ?

I don't think it should open again untill the news is better and the virus has been contained, otherwise it will just be more of the same. That could be months away.

So if they shut the market they would have to be prepared for it to be shut for quite a long time.

 

[rederob]

I think you might be right, but if the market is closed, for how long ?

I don't think it should open again untill the news is better and the virus has been contained, otherwise it will just be more of the same. That could be months away.

So if they shut the market they would have to be prepared for it to be shut for quite a long time.

It took Wuhan 2 months to turnaround their situation.
Open the markets again once the curve is actually flat AND we are testing on a massive scale. Until then the chance of a quick start to a second wave in the midst of our winter would be strong.

 

[kahuna1]

USA futures ...
DID not open LOCKED limit 5% down.

They took a mere 3 mins 53 seconds due to the ABOVE I suspect tinkering with NUMBERS which is ... what it is.

They now are LOCKED 5% DOWN .... FOR NOW ...
whilst fluid and news may change things, I suspect they DO not rise.

Not till the limit is expanded to 13% and since I suspect many in America were watching as numbers got fudged ... in real time, possibly to not have the population panic, then again 38% of FOX news people are not even at all concerned and that the most popular news source ... this is about the Keptocracy and Oligarchy people rather than the masses.

Whilst I may disagree as is my right with PM Potato head here and his 6-12 month timeline and whilst reading the riot act to get idiots to STAY isolated until ... a bloody vaccine happens and this will be a doosey on the ASX .... if they are stupid enuf to open after that 253 seconds to loose 5% so 15% in a straight line ... for the USA side ....

Only time will tell.
Its only money.
Stay safe ... tell someone you love them ...
Call someone isolated and needing a call.

The rest will be what it will be.
Its not the end of the world ....

YET ... we Humans are actually pretty smart and hope is around the corner

Take care
Mark K

 

[satanoperca]

I see some other issues with any shut down too:

1. It sends a very clear message to the public that there's a serious financial problem. Expect a run on physical cash at the banks if the public perceives that things are in peril financially beyond simply seeing share and oil prices decline etc. Actually shutting the market would send a message that things are stuffed.

I think there is a very real possibility there will be a run on banks if the TP debacle is anything to go back which will in turn have the govnuts put a withdraw brake on very fast, which will in turn cause even more panic and instability.

 

[basilio]

I think there is a very real possibility there will be a run on banks if the TP debacle is anything to go back which will in turn have the govnuts put a withdraw brake on very fast, which will in turn cause even more panic and instability.

Unfortunately that is a possibility. I think the way out will be overwhelming government financial support of of businesses and people out of work.

If we think about about it the billions of dollars currently sitting as bank deposits represents accumulated assets. Its great to have them but really not strictly necessary for day to day living. It could be useful for governments to decree that banks don't give out more than a certain percentage of deposits to ensure the viability of the system. Meanwhile they continue to guarantee the deposits up to the current level ($250k) to give long term security to depositers

What people and businesses need on a day to day basis is sufficient funds to pay their bills, rent and food. The decision to effectively double the New start allowance goes a good way to that point. One important factor will be the situation of two income families which is now most people. I hope both partners are covered with this decision.

 

[kahuna1]

As I said ... and still say ... this will pass.

USA futures actually no longer locked limit down. Then again ... a lot of caveats around USA reporting on virus numbers which is the total opposite to the riot act being read here.

To see our market open ... and take your pick at what stocks were 10% down top 50 ones and some 15% and a few even 20% DOWN. These are TOP ASX 50 ones and most of course .... half the recent highs.

Take care ... it is what it is. Read books for 3 months then decide.
Not sure, still if it was a good idea to open.

CWN and SGR the casinos in trading halt and they were already half priced.

Where to from here is the question.

Lots of very cheap shares for the brave, or likely ... stupid if this plays out for the 6-12 months as suggested. Still adding and slowly slowly.

Have fun

 

[Smurf1976]

It is true that closing the stock exchange won't cure COVID-19.
I thought long and hard before posting why I believed a very long closure was necessary.

I do see the point you are making there.

On the other hand I also see a point about changing the rules during the game and so on.

If someone's been accumulating cash and intending to put it into the market whenever the next major downturn occurs or they switched their funds to a non-shares option or whatever then it seems rather unreasonable to change the rules half way through the game.

If the ASX is to be closed under given circumstances then what those circumstances are should be clearly stated prior to such a situation arising.

Also, all such markets should be closed at the same moment - so if the ASX shuts right now, and remains shut for a month, then a month from now the price of oil, gold, silver, all currencies etc remains at current levels. Physical trade continues for physical delivery but the price is locked globally for the duration.

 

[kahuna1]

Just to finish ...

Market closed not good here. Better than expected in some ways.
USA fed came out and said basically its MONEY for anyone and everyone. UNLIMITED.

I did watch Trumps 1 hr 34 min ramble.
If anything, I hold grave concern for his delusions as he blamed everyone else and ... well USA in some states is still not testing ... not isolating and one called Texas has 29 million people.

Not testing and actually saying they will not due to lack of capacity and levels at sub 20% of any G20 nation that is developed, is .... concerning if not terrifying.

This will not be over tomorrow ... for the USA ... I wish the best, but a delusional leader who spoke for 14 minutes about the billions he could have made, 4 mins about his wife and attacked the press and so on ... ROME is alight .... burning and chest thumping and hot air sadly dont change CV19 or science.

Texas has at most 150 ventilators and USA the lowest ratio of hospital beds per population of any developed nation.

Spending the vast majority patting himself and ME ME ME ... still no package and the USA people 70% have less than $400- for an emergency, their need ... is DIRE. EXTREME ...

The package the Republican senate tried to pass gave massive tax cuts to the rich, support to business and NOT a hell of a lot to the people. It was rightly rejected even in these dire times. The second one gave HALF the support if you were low income than someone on middle income GOT .... again ... rejected.

Meanwhile .... isolation message in the USA is well MIXED and ... testing whilst up a lot, WE at 8% the size have done MORE tests in total.

Till USA has tested over a million ... or more given the slow response, and isolates ... distances and supports, the ... well ... in dire trouble.

Did I need to hear how Trump believe how the American people love and respect his wife, Ivanka .... whoops Mikaninannan .... for 3 minutes during what was a speech I expected to see white froth in the corners of his mouth.

In short ... unless orange fake tan works .... against a virus, sadly the road in coming weeks is going to be tough. That they clearly .... clearly buggered the numbers early our time today on reporting cases ... I shared the screed shots and one does not go from 39,000 reported infections to 31,000 in 30 minutes ...

Ahhh

As for VP Mike Pence ... his only contribution was prayers and a glassy look on his face.

Whilst not a fan of PM Morrison but understanding his need to read the riot act to stop the spread ,,,, and his absurd 12 months contradicting his best scientist by a factor of 2 .... that's better than the USA version of it with 3 TIMES as many identified per million infected as Australian ... and having tested a mere 25% of people. AND ITS RUNNING low ... for now on capacity to test.

Think about that .... will the virus pause as ... they test the other 75% ? Not spread .... requiring even more testing to halt the spread ? All while the Dictator keeps people waiting for an hour and half then rambles ... for another 90 minutes.

USA ... may go up ... tonight ... however ... this virus doesn't really care for hot air. ISOLATE ... IDENTIFY and TREAT ....

NONE of it ... is working there. Whilst they may choose NOT to report any new cases or halve them ... I am not sure a virus has feelings ... much like the current president of the USA.

I to be honest am astounded, upset and terrified by this person and his leadership. Wait 2 weeks to pass judgement and no amount of whiteout will work.

Chilling. Meanwhile ... ME ME ME ME ME 147 times ... I I I I over and over ...

 

[Triple B]

Should we be expecting a halt on short selling soon?