My open book trading plan - Two month test

[>Apocalypto<]

Trade it.

Trendlines can be drawn as you know from any timeframe.
In a short timeframe the trend has been well and truely broken.
Jury is out on wether this pattern is distribution OR accumulation.
Ive held this for years and agree with your trend analysis.
However if i was thinking of buying into now I would have the concerns of ambiguity.

Agree with you Tech, thanks for your constructive point of veiw.

that short term angle stands for me and weather the price re confirms it will be seen. if it does confirm it it add to my evidence that the pattern is bullish.

Jury is out on wether this pattern is distribution OR accumulation.

i totally agree with that as well, but as said above that angle is somthing i am looking to a refence into buyer mentality

weather that line stands or not is up to the market to decide that is my time element to wait and see weather the market follows that angle into the near future.

the pattern, stands. as Tech said the jury is out on it. the price could move either way, one further bearish point as MW says's below volume is not acting in the normal way it does in a cont pattern.

 

[>Apocalypto<]

QBE is interesting and later I might review it with more detail

But Tech is right on the money

Surely there are much better candidates ?

Trade it are those trend lines relevant now ?
And Would it not be better to see
narrow range bars and low volume as the price approached it ?
indicating no supply

As it stands everyman and his dog can draw and see that line
I am sure it could explain a bit of buying
But the fact that there is selling ( too much vol for Me )
Is a concern

AS is the bar on the 21st of June
And the response since
Can .. Does that bar really suggest accumulation ???


I am not saying it wont swing back up
But it looks relatively weak

Tech is right

Where are the standout charts that scream
BUY and NOW ?

Also

How are you factoring the trend in the mkt
and position and timing

What is you time frame
what magnitude of moves
are you drawing trend lines from
what moves are you trying to catch

motorway

MW,

no offense i normally hold all your posts in high regard. I did get very much out of that and disagree with couple things you said.

You did not really get what I was saying.

I never said go long on QBE, so i guess that's the beauty of trading difference of opinion.

MW

Please tell me what you see in the chart below, I am very interested so see how our thoughts compare.

 

[tech/a]

TI

Yes good point on trend angle---they dont go vertical for long (Extreme view).
Good trends run at around 45 degrees.
Less are weak,more are strong---but have an expiry date!

 

[motorway]

Hi trade

All the comments were in the context of Can putting it up as a long candidate
To take at this time..

As far as I am concerned We are all beginners and
We have our blind spots..

So this is a good thread..

You have a very good tape reader as a signature
You might agree it was when he doubted the tape he went wrong..

An old tape reading saying
is support that appears Were it is obvious that it should
is suspicious...

Like the trend line on QBE

Tape readers read the tape
That meant they were seeing stocks in context of the mkt
You followed stocks as the ticker spat them out
A bit different to bringing up a 5 min chart and just watching it..

QBE is really just tracing out the same pattern as the broader mkt
The only thing I can see that sets it apart
is that it is weaker

hence Why I said that I would be more confident going short at the top of the next swing than long at the bottom of this one..

Just throwing up thoughts as they come

I do think the bar on the 21st is defining

As this range continues
I would want to see swings narrowing
( as I would like to see in the broader mkt )

Tape readers say How things happen are more important that what is happening...

And I don't mean to be a know it all
Just sharing

cheers

motorway

 

[It's Snake Pliskin]

Hi Snake. I guess the point i was trying to make is that profit targets are fine for the initial calculation of R/R right, but isn't the whole idea to let them run. So we need to use the inital target to evaluate the trade potential, but realistically we don't know the time frame or the eventual selling point.
Cheers,

Can,

I know you know but flippant statements don't portray what you really think. If so it is disaster.

But here inlies the paradox: we do - more obviously we do not.

Our rules and guidelines tells us when we MIGHT expect to sell - profit target. It is a frame of reference our soccer field so to speak. Cross the line and we know what we have to do - once again our rules tells us what to do. If the other team crosses into the goalline we take a loss, if we cross into their goal line we take a profit or we choose to let it run depending on what our rules are. But we do know when we will sell that is why we take the trade on in the first place - only the date is lacking.

Cheers....

 

[motorway]

oops only saw the chart after I replied

Not a mkt I have followed

But I see warning signs and weakness

We have to infer volume
BUT

there is preliminary supply ( previous rally top )
looks to be some real stoping climatic action ?
Which has lead to the good sized retrace

So I would tighten the stop ( If I had been riding the trend )
and I would wait to see it either range ( it could do what QBE is doing )
Or start the next move If I was looking to make an initial entry

preliminary supply + stopping action+
Significant retrace

Change of dynamics...Too early to say change of trend
But at the least if continuation a change in the angle of trend.

motorway

 

[tech/a]

Tape readers say How things happen are more important that what is happening...

Worth repeating.

 

[>Apocalypto<]

Hi trade

hi Motorway

All the comments were in the context of Can putting it up as a long candidate
To take at this time..

I see what you said and I agree QBE is not a great trade to pick up today as there is a lot for it to prove on the up and down side.

The XJO and all ords are in a similar position.

As far as I am concerned We are all beginners and
We have our blind spots..

Tell me about it. What amazes me with trading is you never truly stop learning and being some sought of beginner

So this is a good thread..

It is and Can sorry for taking it off topic to a degree

You have a very good tape reader as a signature
You might agree it was when he doubted the tape he went wrong..

I hold livermore in the higest regards I have read how to trade in stocks many times now and i still get so much out of his wisdom. I have applied many of his trading methods to my trading I also like another great tape reader Gann as well but I have been selective with his techniques that I use I have combined parts of both of them. hence how I look at angles and trends.

An old tape reading saying
is support that appears Were it is obvious that it should
is suspicious...

Like the trend line on QBE

Tape readers read the tape
That meant they were seeing stocks in context of the mkt
You followed stocks as the ticker spat them out
A bit different to bringing up a 5 min chart and just watching it..

QBE is really just tracing out the same pattern as the broader mkt
The only thing I can see that sets it apart
is that it is weaker

hence Why I said that I would be more confident going short at the top of the next swing than long at the bottom of this one..

That is a very valid point, I guess your exprience make that picture clearer to your eye then mine but I see that picture as well.

Just throwing up thoughts as they come

I do think the bar on the 21st is defining

As this range continues
I would want to see swings narrowing
( as I would like to see in the broader mkt )

Tape readers say How things happen are more important that what is happening...

And I don't mean to be a know it all
Just sharing

cheers

motorway

Thank you for that MW found a lot of points in there very good stuff. I am no tape reader but I do like to see things form and confirm. Thank you again for posting your experience.

Can this is all I will say and let your thread get back on course.

 

[CFD]

Tape readers say How things happen are more important that what is happening...

Worth repeating.

Yes he has some classics, I also like this one

"Buy support WITH strength
Sell resistance WITH Weakness"

simply because amongst all the complexities it's easy to overlook the obvious.

I'm sure MW wouldn't mind, I've started a text file on my desktop and these are going in it.

 

[tech/a]

CFD.

Interested in how you and others define/indentify.(Not motorway).
Weakness
Strength.
I think this is a very important point for both long and short term.
identification in both long and short term timeframes.

 

[>Apocalypto<]

oops only saw the chart after I replied

Not a mkt I have followed

But I see warning signs and weakness

We have to infer volume
BUT

there is preliminary supply ( previous rally top )
looks to be some real stoping climatic action ?
Which has lead to the good sized retrace

So I would tighten the stop ( If I had been riding the trend )
and I would wait to see it either range ( it could do what QBE is doing )
Or start the next move If I was looking to make an initial entry

preliminary supply + stopping action+
Significant retrace

Change of dynamics...Too early to say change of trend
But at the least if continuation a change in the angle of trend.

motorway

Can hope you dont find this off topic.

Motor Way.

The trend it sits on is a Gann Line so moving in time price harmony. the break off that angle followed up by the unstablle price lead to the reaction or price moving back.

I have two lines minor resistance and minor support were i see the price has stabblised.

The price has moved above the minor resistance right now and now has one more objective to beat the 45 degree resistence to to confirm continuing upwards. If beaten I will take a long.

If that current angle is broken then a new trend need to be seen.

That's my take.

I want to thank you and Tech for spending time to give your thoughts and experience, in all the threads.

Helps us all see things from different views


Cheers
Joseph

 

[nizar]

MAH, a vouple of options assuming i can get them at 1.33.

Check it out. Nizar, you like this now or you still crook on it?

Cheers,

Can.
MAH looking good, im liking the more loose stop level at $1.17 but $1.22 is also good. Note the 10yrs high is actually $1.19.

(Also note that im the most amateur out of every1 here!)

 

[tcoates]

Can,

Check it out. Nizar, you like this now or you still crook on it?

Not sure about Nizar, but good luck if it works for you. The only reason why I would not be trading it is that it does not fit in with my method and would not be in my universe of stocks.

Time will tell whether it is a steal at $1.33.

Tim

 

[tech/a]

im liking the more loose stop level at $1.17

WHY???

 

[CFD]

CFD.

Interested in how you and others define/indentify.(Not motorway).
Weakness
Strength.
I think this is a very important point for both long and short term.
identification in both long and short term timeframes.

I thought these two went together rather well:
1/. Tape readers say How things happen are more important that what is happening...
2/. define/identify Weakness and Strength.

When looking at QBE I'm learning (I think) to see potential weakness, not because of what's happening to it's moving averages (or other trend indicators) but because any days with volume buying are quickly met with days of volume selling. (As MW would say, the sellers have not been satisfied!)

As to weakness and strength, I now use bar charts with volume histograms to look for this and note that weakness can just as easily appear in up days and strength in down days.

 

[nizar]

WHY???

Because it could bounce off $1.19 and then run like a champion since this is the resistance from 10yrs ago.

Or is it not significant because its so historical?

If its not significant then why did you mention it at all?

Thanks.

 

[tech/a]

Nizar.
I'm not having a go at you OR anyone else and I'm not attempting to make anyone seem like an idiot!
I ask questions like this so you and others ask the same questions/of yourself.

The question I always ask myself is why give a losing trade MORE room to LOSE!
I'll answer tonight in more detail and look further forward with this trade.

 

[CFD]

Or is it not significant because its so historical?
Thanks.

Some would say yes, some would say no, but that's not the point. The point is you had a good answer and if tech/a had not asked why??? it would have gone straight over my head.

 

[nizar]

but normally lowering a stop is a major nono. stops should only move one way up.......

Not sure if this is directed towards me.
But i never move stops down.

What is being discussed here it placement of the initial sotp.

 

[>Apocalypto<]

Not sure if this is directed towards me.
But i never move stops down.

What is being discussed here it placement of the initial sotp.

I was totally off the mark there Nizar! very sorry!

I would never think for the slightest moment you would ever do that! : )

Nizar on to your actual topic what is your stop system is % or T/a based?

I use % of overall cap. as i trade CFD's on indexes and Fx its at 5%. as they like to move a fair amount in the period