My open book trading plan - Two month test

[tech/a]

We all have different styles and there are many ways of trading many different charts.
My way will not suit everyone and my way is often ways in different discrtionary setups.
But the basic premise of low risk decient R/R remains,in my trading.
Thats the beauty of technical trading---subjective analysis.
I will see something different to what others see.
Being right or wrong isnt the question.
Being profitable in the long run is!!

 

[CanOz]

Really like the confluence on the weekly too.

 

[CanOz]

We all have different styles and there are many ways of trading many different charts.
My way will not suit everyone and my way is often ways in different discrtionary setups.
But the basic premise of low risk decient R/R remains,in my trading.
Thats the beauty of technical trading---subjective analysis.
I will see something different to what others see.
Being right or wrong isnt the question.
Being profitable in the long run is!!

Thanks Tech, well said. Do you have a scan that you use for those setups?

On the short side, i noticed more sells and less buys on my scans last nite...that doesn't mean theres lots of shorting opps around, just more unconfirmed signals. They could all disappear after today....

Cheers,

 

[nomore4s]

Really like the confluence on the weekly too.

Can, SEK has also been on my watchlist for a while. I will be looking for a entry with a strong break above $7.60ish with a stop just under the trendline. Refer the SEK thread. Sorry at work and don't have my charts set up here for more detail.

 

[>Apocalypto<]

Really like the confluence on the weekly too.

Sek looks like it could turn into a winner.

I am about to look it up and maybe take a play on it if meets to the requirements I have.

Cheers for the lead!


This trade is right out of duchy's hand book wonder if he has spotted it!

 

[>Apocalypto<]

We all have different styles and there are many ways of trading many different charts.
My way will not suit everyone and my way is often ways in different discrtionary setups.
But the basic premise of low risk decient R/R remains,in my trading.
Thats the beauty of technical trading---subjective analysis.
I will see something different to what others see.
Being right or wrong isnt the question.
Being profitable in the long run is!!

Tech,

Great post,

you really summed it up with that what some see others wont and that is why trading and Technicail analysis is so great there is no standard template we all tweak things in our own way.

Even in EW and Gann each student puts emphasis's on certain parts that suite there character more.

Also Tech, your post also pokes holes in the theory of: self for filling prophecy!

 

[nizar]

Can, SEK has also been on my watchlist for a while. I will be looking for a entry with a strong break above $7.60ish with a stop just under the trendline. Refer the SEK thread. Sorry at work and don't have my charts set up here for more detail.

I tend to agree wholly.
Looks the goods to me.

Very similar to the pattern AED broke out of in May.
Long 4-month consolidation, then a break on volume and a run like a champion.

Have to wait for the break though, a close above $7.60 would do it for me. Obvious resistance on the 3-month daily (shorter timeframe).

 

[questionall_42]

Originally Posted by questionall_42 (bold from CanOz);
Can - going over your allocated risk is NOT a good thing. You create rules to follow, and although this just paper trading, this is an exercise in working out how to make profitable trades for you. Part of this exercise should be to find out what your risk/return should be. Bugger, sorry. Oh well, what should i have done, i tried to get them at 1.33?

One option is not to have executed the trade at all - you have your conditions/rules, and if you don't live by them, then you are reacting to emotion. Test and then subsequently change the rules; just don't react. You will miss opportunities this way, but you can sleep better.

Originally Posted by questionall_42 (bold from CanOz);
Also, you did mention earlier in this thread that you are lacking patience (i couldn't find it just now). And if you are impatient for a paper trade, then this spells trouble for the real thing. As far as emotions go, its my biggest downfall, afraid to miss out, whats yours?

My biggest downfall is not taking the plunge, particularly buy - I have my rules (i am primarily a F/A) but actually doing it is my downfall. This thread is helpful for me to work out how to refine my trading system.

Originally Posted by questionall_42 (bold from CanOz);
Picking stocks is one factor in a good return; your trading psychology is as important. Absolutley, i'm on the last chapter of "Trading in The Zone" now, great book, for life too, not just trading.

I hope you're learning as much as me, i just wish we could all do this in person, its much easier to understand the goodwill and intent.

Good stuff. I am indeed learning a lot. Best of luck Can.

 

[CanOz]

One option is not to have executed the trade at all - you have your conditions/rules, and if you don't live by them, then you are reacting to emotion.

This is an interesting scenario to me. I think what should be done, when picking EOD and buying the next day, would be to calculate the FFR on the worst case, but still acceptable scenario of prices. Eg, i calculated the FFR on 1.33 but i should have calculated it on a higher price that still fell into my acceptable R/R, whatever that may be.

Thoughts on this?

Cheers,

Oh, for those wondering, i missed out on SEK, because of the price increase today i feel it does not meet my requirements for R/R, unless of course it gets sold off in the afternoon, but then, if there is still that much supply, why would i want it now?

 

[>Apocalypto<]

Really like the confluence on the weekly too.

Can

One question for you in regards to SEK

I want to know when you would take the trade, confirmation on a weekly trade?

would you take it today or would you wait till Friday afternoon to see exactly where u stand on this break out. as of now the volume is not strong cuz so early in the week.

I personally would wait till friday to make my play. it looks the real deal now but by friday the volume will be clearer.

 

[nizar]

Oh, for those wondering, i missed out on SEK, because of the price increase today i feel it does not meet my requirements for R/R, unless of course it gets sold off in the afternoon, but then, if there is still that much supply, why would i want it now?

Hi Can.

What are exactly your requirements for R/R?

Obviously risk is controlled and determined when the stop is placed, but how do you work out the return?
Do you have a price projection/target for this?
If so id be keen to know how you came up with this.

Thanks.

 

[tech/a]

i missed out on SEK, because of the price increase today i feel it does not meet my requirements for R/R,

PERSPECTIVE!!
Yesterday you bought a stock which rose 5c in $1.30

Today you discard a stock which has risen 18c in $7.50
The ratio in todays move in SEK is LESS than yesterdays move in MAH?

This move is likely to be well above 18c!!!

 

[IFocus]

Hi Can

I hate to keep harping on about time frame and there are many aspects to how its applied but lets just look at this.

If you are looking to trade the medium time frame think about where those moves come from that look like AOE. If you breakdown AOE into each move during the up trend look at where each move comes from or the price structure before it.

I put SEK up as a medium term possible trade as its formed a reasonable base and has a reasonable range up to that base.
I like the premise that “price moves continually from one range to another” I think that came from Stan Weinstein's book. Doesn’t mean SEK will range upwards absolutely as its just about probability

Entry for SEK in this case for me would be $7.63 any where below that has been met with supply. Stop would be below yesterdays bar and add to on break of new high or retest after break. Position size accordingly.

Hope this helps

Tech whats your time frame?

Focus

 

[>Apocalypto<]

Hi Can

I hate to keep harping on about time frame and there are many aspects to how its applied but lets just look at this.

If you are looking to trade the medium time frame think about where those moves come from that look like AOE. If you breakdown AOE into each move during the up trend look at where each move comes from or the price structure before it.

I put SEK up as a medium term possible trade as its formed a reasonable base and has a reasonable range up to that base.
I like the premise that “price moves continually from one range to another” I think that came from Stan Weinstein's book. Doesn’t mean SEK will range upwards absolutely as its just about probability

Entry for SEK in this case for me would be $7.63 any where below that has been met with supply. Stop would be below yesterdays bar and add to on break of new high or retest after break. Position size accordingly.

Hope this helps

Tech whats your time frame?

Focus

Great post IFocus I totally agree

 

[It's Snake Pliskin]

Tech,

Great post,

Also Tech, your post also pokes holes in the theory of: self for filling prophecy!

Oh but it doesn't. You just don't realise it. Charting is self-fullfilling and also corruptive. If it wasn't it wouldn't have the tendency to work as it does regardless of style.

 

[tech/a]

Tech whats your time frame?

I'm looking for a completion of wave 3 (it could have already happened).
But on this trade by the end of the week as I'm going away.

If it wasn't it wouldn't have the tendency to work as it does regardless of style.

Snake I see T/A more as analysis of crowd behaviour.
And as crowd behaviour (particularly big crowds) is predictable and can be seen as cyclic as well as repetitive---this is why analysis will have a tendancy to be "self" fulfilling.

Notice also how smaller crowds (trading small caps) can do seamingly radical things---spike either way! Or be more volatile or totally flat---(no crowd to work with!).

 

[>Apocalypto<]

Oh but it doesn't. You just don't realise it. Charting is self-fullfilling and also corruptive. If it wasn't it wouldn't have the tendency to work as it does regardless of style.

cheers for your thoughts snake, understand what you are saying great angle to look at it from.

 

[nizar]

PERSPECTIVE!!
Yesterday you bought a stock which rose 5c in $1.30

Today you discard a stock which has risen 18c in $7.50
The ratio in todays move in SEK is LESS than yesterdays move in MAH?

This move is likely to be well above 18c!!!

Agree with tech.

 

[It's Snake Pliskin]

Snake I see T/A more as analysis of crowd behaviour.
And as crowd behaviour (particularly big crowds) is predictable and can be seen as cyclic as well as repetitive---this is why analysis will have a tendancy to be "self" fulfilling.

Notice also how smaller crowds (trading small caps) can do seamingly radical things---spike either way! Or be more volatile or totally flat---(no crowd to work with!).

My point exactly and why I hate the smaller caps.

tech why do you put my username in bold?

 

[It's Snake Pliskin]

cheers for your thoughts snake, understand what you are saying great angle to look at it from.

No worries t/i.

If it is selfullfilling we know where to trade from, and if it is corruptive we know when it has failed.