My open book trading plan - Two month test

[tech/a]

Sorry cana I was talking about APZ as per motorways post and not ADY.

Thanks Tech for the reply, will keep on eye on it next week to see the picture unfold. Finding VSA very interesting.

OOps my comments were ADY also!!

 

[CanOz]

Ok Tech, I think i've got some tools that can help me out here, pattern explorer for Amibroker has these two, fractals to help me with my EW learning. And Support and Resistance which quickly plots the basic S&R lines as soon as you bring up the symbol, heres, ADY as an example.

I'll do some more scans today.

Thanks everyone for your input.

Cheers,

 

[CanOz]

Another one one the watchlist, still a bit of supply about.



Cheers,

 

[Porper]

QBE yes there is support.
But for me -- id rather buy it when it breaks the overhead resistance.
Currently theres no reason from the chart as to why the price wont range trade for a while.

If you want to trade the range and make a few % thats fine current levels give a good entry.
But for a higher R/R trade if look for an entry when it breaks to the upside, from the trading range.

In my opinion.

I quite like the look of QBE, just to be different from most.

It gives the opportunity for a low risk entry and is oversold with a good reversal crossover.Admittedly it isn't a perfect set up, there will be reistance at $33.00 but the downside is minimal.

Can, to me this is a much safer way to go than looking at stocks like ADY where they shoot up only to retrace.These types of stocks are good after the retrace and a reversal sign is given to continue the trend.As it is you either can't take up a large enough position due to a wide stop or you will get stopped out all the time.

Just my thoughts.

 

[tech/a]

Canaussieuk

Here is an example of what I consider a low risk entry and from the chart I hope you can see why.
Its very simple.
Gives s sensible stop with a 7c risk.If it opened at $1.29
So you could in this exercise buy 20,000 of them.

Also note the recient break above a 10 yr high not shown on this chart!!

 

[CanOz]

Thanks Tech/A,

I'm going to open two positions Monday morning (theoretical), QBE, and MAH.

And heres one to watch for your setup you like.

 

[CanOz]

I love finding absorption volume...like this one...does anyone else build watch lists? or do you just scan for opportunities nitely/daily?

Cheers,

 

[nizar]

Canaussieuk

Here is an example of what I consider a low risk entry and from the chart I hope you can see why.
Its very simple.
Gives s sensible stop with a 7c risk.If it opened at $1.29
So you could in this exercise buy 20,000 of them.

Also note the recient break above a 10 yr high not shown on this chart!!

Yes this one certainly looks the goods to me.

Porper, QBE looks like it will range trade for a while.
The chart is almost an identical copy of how AED was.
4 month sideways range bwteen 4.75-5.20. I bought it when it broke the resistance at 5.20. Gapped up the next day i got it on the open at 5.43. Got to 7.50 before any appreciable pullback.

QBE looks to me like it will range trade for a bit.
What i would do -- is wait for when it breaks $33. If it does so, it will probably do it on volume, coz plenty of sellers at that level. I would then buy the next days open and a put the stop a touch below $33. This stop would be 50c-ish. Pretty low risk entry to me THEN. Not now.

Because to validate the uptrend, previous resistance becomes support and upwards and onwards we go.


MAH is a beauty. Blue skies since 1990. I cannot NOT buy it. Thanks tech

 

[tech/a]

Its not a recommendation guys its an example.
If everyone buys it the "Smart money" will take our hard earned and it will drop like a stone!!!

 

[motorway]

Its not a recommendation guys its an example.
If everyone buys it the "Smart money" will take our hard earned and it will drop like a stone!!!

What i would do -- is wait for when it breaks $33. If it does so, it will probably do it on volume

Everyone can see what you are seeing
and they are probably are waiting as well

This is the crystallizing of sentiment and contingency by the activity in the trading range..

It is not necessarily the low risk trade

What determines is

is this range accumulation or distribution

Things I would look for among others ;

Where is the volume ?
top of the swings
bottom of the swings

Are the swings widening or narrowing ?

Is demand or supply exhausting ?

QBE
I could not state with any confidence
that this is accumulation ( looks more like distribution )
I would be more confident going short at the top of the next swing
then I would be going long at the bottom of the current swing.

I Would not at this stage buy the breakout
I would be wary of an upthrust and sharp move back

I want to see some bullish activity
Some good strong bars with volume
I want to see volume at the end of the down swings start to dry up.
And I want to see HIGHER BOTTOMS

I would tend to see this range as distribution
But need to see more testing

When the Volume subsides
Testing might be concluded..

And I want to see the C rel strength improve
esp on down days
low volume narrow range bars
with lowish volume
would be a good response.


motorway

 

[nizar]

Tech, motorway.

Which is better APZ or MAH and why?

Iv made up my mind, just keen to hear/discuss some thoughts.

Thanks.

 

[CFD]

What's QBE's next support level below $31-?

 

[tcoates]

CFD -

about $29.23, $28 then $26 (from weekly charts)

Tim

 

[tech/a]

Take a look at BUR (For the watchlist)
I would be waiting for a pullback for a closer stop position.
SDM Short.Again on the watchlist.
GDN watchlist above .455
CUO Close.

 

[nizar]

Take a look at BUR (For the watchlist)
I would be waiting for a pullback for a closer stop position.
SDM Short.Again on the watchlist.
GDN watchlist above .455
CUO Close.

BUR so overbought its not funny.
GDN a dog (with fleas)
CUO nice.

 

[123enen]

AED is in it's third consolidation in 12 months.
This could be a good candidate.

 

[nomore4s]

AED is in it's third consolidation in 12 months.
This could be a good candidate.

Got a feeling this one could gap up on open, on the back of news of the 100million barrels.

 

[CanOz]

Got a feeling this one could gap up on open, on the back of news of the 100million barrels.

I'm going to use this stock as a personal exercise in patience, there will be those who sell, and i'll put this on a watch list and wait.

I'd like to see a gap open, then maybe an opp on the pull back.

CUO looking like a great little setup.

Nizar, you got any for the watchlist? Ones that are CFDable, or are you going to only offer up criticism and hold out on us?

Cheers,

 

[nizar]

I'm going to use this stock as a personal exercise in patience, there will be those who sell, and i'll put this on a watch list and wait.

I'd like to see a gap open, then maybe an opp on the pull back.

CUO looking like a great little setup.

Nizar, you got any for the watchlist? Ones that are CFDable, or are you going to only offer up criticism and hold out on us?

Cheers,

Criticisms???
Well im sorry if you saw it as that.
I posted some good stuff near the beginning of this thread -- seems to have been ignored by you (?)

I call a spade a spade.
If you want me to say every stock is a champion then i will

I think my opinion on QBE was a valid one, and GDN looks like a dog to me.

I'll tell you what im holding at the moment:
MEO, ESG, CVN, AED, PPP, AUZ, VRE, AOE, MUN, CFE.

And what i will add 2mrw:
ADY, APZ.
MAH after a closer look i think i will pass.
Thank you for APZ.

I have no idea what is CFDable or not. I dont work with CFDs and have no intention of doing so. So i'll leave it upto you to find out which of the above is CFDable or not

 

[It's Snake Pliskin]

Yes this one certainly looks the goods to me.

Porper, QBE looks like it will range trade for a while.
The chart is almost an identical copy of how AED was.
4 month sideways range bwteen 4.75-5.20. I bought it when it broke the resistance at 5.20. Gapped up the next day i got it on the open at 5.43. Got to 7.50 before any appreciable pullback.

QBE looks to me like it will range trade for a bit.
What i would do -- is wait for when it breaks $33. If it does so, it will probably do it on volume, coz plenty of sellers at that level. I would then buy the next days open and a put the stop a touch below $33. This stop would be 50c-ish. Pretty low risk entry to me THEN. Not now.

Because to validate the uptrend, previous resistance becomes support and upwards and onwards we go.

Sounds like a sucker's play NIZ.........

It could be range traded though which is a valid strategy devoid of the blue skies romance in the eyes thinking. However, this may not meet Can's requirements.