My open book trading plan - Two month test

[nizar]

Sounds like a sucker's play NIZ.........

It could be range traded though which is a valid strategy devoid of the blue skies romance in the eyes thinking. However, this may not meet Can's requirements.

Thanks for your feedback bro.

 

[CanOz]

Criticisms???
Well im sorry if you saw it as that.
I posted some good stuff near the beginning of this thread -- seems to have been ignored by you (?)

I call a spade a spade.
If you want me to say every stock is a champion then i will

I think my opinion on QBE was a valid one, and GDN looks like a dog to me.

I'll tell you what im holding at the moment:
MEO, ESG, CVN, AED, PPP, AUZ, VRE, AOE, MUN, CFE.

And what i will add 2mrw:
ADY, APZ.
MAH after a closer look i think i will pass.
Thank you for APZ.

I have no idea what is CFDable or not. I dont work with CFDs and have no intention of doing so. So i'll leave it upto you to find out which of the above is CFDable or not

Fine, thanks for your input bro.

Lets try to keep his civil, and constructive shall we....

I don't need to know what your holding Nizar, this isn't a penis length comp. I was just interested in the some of the types of setups you like and why, maybe something unique you'd like to offer. This in't just about me, but hopefully something others can learn from too.

I really thought your opinion of QBE was very typical, and it was good discussion.

Cheers mate, keep the good stuff coming, and good luck tomorrow

 

[lesm]

I'm going to open two positions Monday morning (theoretical), QBE, and MAH.

Can,

A couple of simple questions, if I may, especially as this is meant as a learning thread.

On what basis are you going to open a position on QBE?

What is your plan for trading QBE itself and over what timeframe?

A couple of suggestions:

Re-look a the QBE chart in the weekly and monthly timeframes (trying looking at it using candlesticks, as well as bars).

Re-read the comments associated with QBE, especially motorway's.

Will be interested in your comments or questions.

Cheers.

 

[It's Snake Pliskin]

Can,
On what basis are you going to open a position on QBE?

What is your plan for trading QBE itself and over what timeframe?

Some valid questions here.

 

[CanOz]

Yes, all valid questions.

Even in the candlesticks i see the sellers drying up, this type of consolidation to me looks like a good setup for a quick move up. How far? Well i would say recent highs as a minimum.

Some more notes on the chart. I'll try to have a look later and see how it opens. I'll purchase the theoretical parcel if it breaks Fridays high today or tomorrow..hows that, a little more confirmation.

Cheers,

 

[>Apocalypto<]

Can

I can't see a problem with QBE either, based on what you say.

meeting a trend. Its in a continuation pattern. only worry with your entry is it still may act very volitile due to the confirmed range its in.

watch any price at or over 32.60 as on two three separate occasions it fell back rather fast. A break above the top resistance is a great place to add! Other point to watch is if it dose not move up that trend line, then i would look for more confirmation.

great part of entering on the bottom of the range is better stops that is how i play on FX, but be ready for more volitity while it's in that range.

Good trading,

 

[CanOz]

Can

I can't see a problem with QBE either, based on what you say.

meeting a trend. Its in a continuation pattern. only worry with your entry is it still may act very volitile due to the confirmed range its in.

watch any price at or over 32.60 as on two three separate occasions it fell back rather fast. A break above the top resistance is a great place to add! Other point to watch is if it dose not move up that trend line, then i would look for more confirmation.

great part of entering on the bottom of the range is better stops that is how i play on FX, but be ready for more volitity while it's in that range.

Good trading,

Thanks TI, good to here another opinion, i love your use of the humble trend line. Amazing that so many have different opinions about this one, thats one reason why i chose to post it.

Anyway QBE needs to move in the right direction before i add it to the somewhat empty portfolio atm.

Cheers,

 

[CFD]

Can what do you mean by CFDable? IG's list of stocks, which I think you are using, gives the margin, stop loss cost and whether the stock can be sold short.

 

[CFD]

~~
great part of entering on the bottom of the range is better stops that is how i play on FX, but be ready for more volitity while it's in that range.
Good trading,

But just how many chances do you give it to break through it's latest residence, before it has a far greater chance of falling through it's latest support?

 

[CanOz]

Can what do you mean by CFDable? IG's list of stocks, which I think you are using, gives the margin, stop loss cost and whether the stock can be sold short.

Yeah thats right. The reason i want to use that as the universe, is that its more realistically what i would normally trade.

Because i am overseas, the list is slightly more restricted as they only let me trade 'controlled risk'.

I wanted to keep the concept simple here, so i'm using 75k unleveraged as capital, even though i would normally use 30k-40k with CFDs.

Cheers,

 

[CFD]

But just how many chances do you give it to break through it's latest residence, ~~

residence, resistance, what's the difference? Be nice to be able edit the dam thing.

 

[>Apocalypto<]

But just how many chances do you give it to break through it's latest residence, before it has a far greater chance of falling through it's latest support?

CFD,

I follow the trend so the market of QBE is a uptrend so I look to go long I would never short it.

If it marched straight though that trend line the situation changes for me the current angle of buyer support is broken. If that happened I would wait to see it can break resistance on a strong bar/candle with volume. To make my first small position once I see it make a small drop and recover confirming resistance as support then I would add.

Like i said that trend line is its pathway right now I look at how it moves on that angle into the over head resistance line which is showing a continuation patten right now.

That sideways band may keep going for a while breaking the angle then I will watch and wait for a confirmation of the pattern to be a buy or a fail (it breaks the support point of the pattern.). It does not worry me how many times it touches that resistance line all that matters is the break out! ( the more touches the more potent the break out Sometimes! )

 

[tech/a]

Trade it.

Trendlines can be drawn as you know from any timeframe.
In a short timeframe the trend has been well and truely broken.
Jury is out on wether this pattern is distribution OR accumulation.
Ive held this for years and agree with your trend analysis.
However if i was thinking of buying into now I would have the concerns of ambiguity.

CanOz
Has I believe a problem in identifying LOW RISK trades.
This I would simply pass.
Others are much easier.

 

[CanOz]

Trade it.

Trendlines can be drawn as you know from any timeframe.
In a short timeframe the trend has been well and truely broken.
Jury is out on wether this pattern is distribution OR accumulation.
Ive held this for years and agree with your trend analysis.
However if i was thinking of buying into now I would have the concerns of ambiguity.

CanOz
Has I believe a problem in identifying LOW RISK trades.
This I would simply pass.
Others are much easier.

Heres one i posted the other day, what about 2580 shares at 5.58? Stop at 5.29?

 

[motorway]

QBE is interesting and later I might review it with more detail

But Tech is right on the money

Surely there are much better candidates ?

Trade it are those trend lines relevant now ?
And Would it not be better to see
narrow range bars and low volume as the price approached it ?
indicating no supply

As it stands everyman and his dog can draw and see that line
I am sure it could explain a bit of buying
But the fact that there is selling ( too much vol for Me )
Is a concern

AS is the bar on the 21st of June
And the response since
Can .. Does that bar really suggest accumulation ???


I am not saying it wont swing back up
But it looks relatively weak

Tech is right

Where are the standout charts that scream
BUY and NOW ?

Also

How are you factoring the trend in the mkt
and position and timing

What is you time frame
what magnitude of moves
are you drawing trend lines from
what moves are you trying to catch

motorway

 

[CanOz]

How are you factoring the trend in the mkt
and position and timing

What is you time frame
what magnitude of moves
are you drawing trend lines from
what moves are you trying to catch

motorway

Ok, i had the notes on the chart MWay. QBE is on the watchlist, nothing more.

Lets find those screamers then hey.

I like DJS, APZ's not exactly screaming buy me today, maybe tomorrow. MAH is looking real good, whats the upside target here? Why can't we just jump on until it stops us out?

(gosh its nice not too have to worry about an ego...otherwise who would ask all of these stupid questions?)



Cheers,

 

[CanOz]

MAH, a vouple of options assuming i can get them at 1.33.

Check it out. Nizar, you like this now or you still crook on it?

Cheers,

 

[It's Snake Pliskin]

Why can't we just jump on until it stops us out?
(gosh its nice not too have to worry about an ego...otherwise who would ask all of these stupid questions?)

Can,

I think you are doing a good thing by initiating this thread. It has drawn a lot of opinions out of the members.

The higlighted sentence in red is recipe for failure in my opinion - more so, the attitude that creates that sentence.(no offence intended)

It's more than just TA as you know but I think a lot don't actually think about it to the degree that the top 3 percent do.

 

[CanOz]

Can,

I think you are doing a good thing by initiating this thread. It has drawn a lot of opinions out of the members.

The higlighted sentence in red is recipe for failure in my opinion - more so, the attitude that creates that sentence.(no offence intended)

It's more than just TA as you know but I think a lot don't actually think about it to the degree that the top 3 percent do.

Hi Snake. I guess the point i was trying to make is that profit targets are fine for the initial calculation of R/R right, but isn't the whole idea to let them run. So we need to use the inital target to evaluate the trade potential, but realistically we don't know the time frame or the eventual selling point.

Cheers,

 

[tech/a]

Can

Your right and so is Snake and M/W.
Lets take MAH.
Buy was at open $1.29 resk was calculated froem there.
No problems with the level now it only adjusts your position size.
Unless you adjust the stop position.
I cant see why---thats why I like it it can be tight with LOW risk of being taken out. Supply has so far proven to be lacking.

In the overall picture of things trading in a discretionary manner rather than mechanical we need some guidelines as to what we can milk on this move.
Where its likely to go and when it does stop wether this is likley to be a corrective move or a correction in the longer term move.
We can analyse this later (dont have the time now),but once on the trade we need to have some guidelines.
Nearly at 1:1 R/R now.