My New Monthly System

[willoneau]

I bought RUL few weeks ago with my weekly system at 0.92
I would have bought PNV but I have price limit.

 

[MovingAverage]

just looked at the daily chart on PNV...it's had a nice run over the past month.

 

[willoneau]

just looked at the daily chart on PNV...it's had a nice run over the past month.

Why look at daily if using monthly?

 

[MovingAverage]

Why look at daily if using monthly?

haha...i don't just trade monthly...i'm currently live trading daily and weekly systems. i just had a daily chart open when i read your post so just looked at that. the fact that i looked at the pnv daily has nothing to do with my monthly system other than i was simply curious to see what it looked like on daily given that you mentioned it

 

[willoneau]

haha...i don't just trade monthly...i'm currently live trading daily and weekly systems. i just had a daily chart open when i read your post so just looked at that. the fact that i looked at the pnv daily has nothing to do with my monthly system other than i was simply curious to see what it looked like on daily given that you mentioned it

are you using a modified WTT to trade monthly?

 

[MovingAverage]

are you using a modified WTT to trade monthly?

Absolutely not. I'm already trading WTT on weekly and don't want anything that is reasonably correlated to that regardless of time frame. In one of my earlier posts in this thread I indicated that my monthly was inspired by the 20% flipper, but make no mistake my monthly system is not just 20% flipper tuned to monthly. Unlike 20% flipper my monthly system is not based on a % increase from a low point. Hope that helps.

 

[willoneau]

I agree with the correlation aspect too, but at this stage I only trade one system until my capital reaches a point were it can affect a stocks price.

 

[martyjames]

HI Movingaverage -any updates? Just read through this entire thread - very interesting. Wondering if you traded it live yet and how it went in the corona crash?

cheers

 

[MovingAverage]

HI Movingaverage -any updates? Just read through this entire thread - very interesting. Wondering if you traded it live yet and how it went in the corona crash?

cheers

Hi there,

I've put the system on hold for the moment. While the system looked ok in simulations there were a few things about the system that don't suit my trading personality. The main thing being exits only at month end--the problem for me is seeing stocks head south rapidly and not exiting until month end, which is too long a time frame for me personally. Take March for example. While I still like the system (particularly the entry setups) and believe it still has merit I want to enhance it with a intra-month exit in addition to the end of month exit. The idea with the intra-month exit will be to exit those stocks that uncharacteristically decline rapidly during the month instead of waiting until the end of month to exit. This intra-month exit will suit my trading personality better. Work has been a little busy for me the past few months so haven't had the time to code the new exits, but will do. I've got two ideas for mid-month exits (it won't be a simple trailing stop) that I'm going to sim. Will let you know how I go.

No, I didn't live trade for the reasons above.

Cheers, MA.

 

[martyjames]

Thanks for the reply. Totally understand re watching huge drops in price knowing you cant exit til months end(start). Im currently changing my trading from daily to weekly as it does suit my lifestyle more and backtesting shows it survived the corona crash pretty well.

cheers
Marty

 

[willoneau]

Hi there,

I've put the system on hold for the moment. While the system looked ok in simulations there were a few things about the system that don't suit my trading personality. The main thing being exits only at month end--the problem for me is seeing stocks head south rapidly and not exiting until month end, which is too long a time frame for me personally. Take March for example. While I still like the system (particularly the entry setups) and believe it still has merit I want to enhance it with a intra-month exit in addition to the end of month exit. The idea with the intra-month exit will be to exit those stocks that uncharacteristically decline rapidly during the month instead of waiting until the end of month to exit. This intra-month exit will suit my trading personality better. Work has been a little busy for me the past few months so haven't had the time to code the new exits, but will do. I've got two ideas for mid-month exits (it won't be a simple trailing stop) that I'm going to sim. Will let you know how I go.

No, I didn't live trade for the reasons above.

Cheers, MA.

I think the whole point of trading monthly is to avoid the monthly fluctuations. Using March which was a major correction by it self to change to shorter time frame is incorrect. You need to look at major pull backs going back decades to see what effect they had on the Monthly system, or just trade weekly. IMHO

 

[willoneau]

I think using GTFO indicator as mentioned by Skate might help a Monthly system get out before the major correction.

 

[MovingAverage]

I think the whole point of trading monthly is to avoid the monthly fluctuations. Using March which was a major correction by it self to change to shorter time frame is incorrect. You need to look at major pull backs going back decades to see what effect they had on the Monthly system, or just trade weekly. IMHO

i think you misunderstand my comments--i'm not looking to change to a shorter time frame. I'm just looking to add an intra-month "emergency exit" while retaining the existing EOM exits. I intend to keep this a monthly system. Yes, i've looked at major pullbacks over the past decades and that is why I'm re-designing my exits. Like I said--I'm not comfortable waiting until EOM to exit stocks that are heading south rapidly--it doesn't suit me. I'm not suggesting intra-month exiting all stocks pulling back...just those that are experiencing rapid declines.

 

[willoneau]

If your not comfortable , why a Monthly?

 

[willoneau]

I am just wondering how you determine if a sudden pull back that is still within the monthly average standard deviation becomes a sell?

 

[MovingAverage]

If your not comfortable , why a Monthly?

I like it for a number of reasons: filters out a lot of noise, requires less of my time and because it doesn't have a lot of correlation with my existing live daily and weekly systems. There are a lot of things with the monthly system that I am comfortable with and just because it has one characteristic in its current form that I'm not comfortable with just mean I should just toss it in the bin

 

[willoneau]

Wouldn't a intra monthly exit bring that noise back?

 

[MovingAverage]

Wouldn't a intra monthly exit bring that noise back?

When I say noise, I mean the general volatility (ups and downs) that you see in daily charts. Like I said, I'm sticking with monthly charts so entries and exits won't change the behavior of monthly bars.

 

[Newt]

When we've all made megabucks trending trading All Ords stocks, perhaps a more conservative monthly timeframe strategy trading ASX300 or even ASX100 high dividend yield stocks might be a complimentary safer way to reduce risk in some trading holdings.....?

I've previously looked at how ASX universe strategies behave on high cap stocks and longer timeframes, and you can usually adjust them to work favourably with less % return but also lower DDs. Doesn't mean I've ever followed through.

Thanks for sharing your insights into this strategy and challenges of executing is MovingAverage.

 

[willoneau]

When I say noise, I mean the general volatility (ups and downs) that you see in daily charts. Like I said, I'm sticking with monthly charts so entries and exits won't change the behavior of monthly bars.

But your entries and exits will be placed before the monthly bars are completed?