My open book trading plan - Two month test

[CanOz]

And another one for the long opps watchlist...i like to build watchlists, then i can use alerts to tell me when an opportunity has come up.

 

[nomore4s]

Cana, maybe you are overcomplicating things a bit?

These are just suggestions but maybe you should limit yourself to looking at long only positions atm. I know the lure of being able to go short is strong especially with the market going sideways atm but with your bad run atm maybe you would be best served to get back to basics and just look for high prob, low risk long entries. This would serve the purpose of getting your confidence back and give you time to look for and work out a system that gives you a strong signal to go short. I even recall WayneL saying he hadn't had many signals to go short lately.

2 of the charts you've posted up for your watchlists are both in downtrends atm, this looks a bit like bottom picking to me(purely my opinion), maybe you should just concentrate on looking for entries on stocks where the long term trend is up as there is plenty of them around atm. This may help to improve your strike rate.

Good luck.

 

[CanOz]

Heres a nice uptrend and a triangle breakout, a bit late for my liking.

Cheers,

 

[tech/a]

Much better!!
Yes a bit late but look at that "oops" bar at the bottom of the triangle.
2 of them!!
Lets get selective and wait for a trade to come to us.

 

[lesm]

Much better!!
Lets get selective and wait for a trade to come to us.

Yes, there is no need to rush. Being patient is a virtue.

Look for high probability, low risk trading opportunities.

If you are late, let it go and wait/look for another opportunity. The market will still be there tomorrow.

 

[CanOz]

Cana, maybe you are overcomplicating things a bit?

These are just suggestions but maybe you should limit yourself to looking at long only positions atm. I know the lure of being able to go short is strong especially with the market going sideways atm but with your bad run atm maybe you would be best served to get back to basics and just look for high prob, low risk long entries. This would serve the purpose of getting your confidence back and give you time to look for and work out a system that gives you a strong signal to go short. I even recall WayneL saying he hadn't had many signals to go short lately.

2 of the charts you've posted up for your watchlists are both in downtrends atm, this looks a bit like bottom picking to me(purely my opinion), maybe you should just concentrate on looking for entries on stocks where the long term trend is up as there is plenty of them around atm. This may help to improve your strike rate.

Good luck.

Thanks Nomore4s, i appreciate all the advice. The two stocks i posted that were in downtrends are only for the long opps watch list. I didn't intend on any taking a posy just yet. PSV was a stock that i just recently closed out a short on, now i was noticing some buyers coming back in, as i said, one for the watchlist.

Lesm, i think that is one of my downfalls, not being patient enough. Thats why i'm building some watchlists from some of my scan results.

Any other advice on using scans and watchlists, i would love to hear some more ideas.

OXR represents a real opp soon, and QBE is a low risk/high prob setup with a recent move back to support.



Cheers,

 

[tech/a]

NM4s
Yes agree.

Can
What we need to know is what we are waiting for.
When a setup is pretty well ready.
We need to identify setups (the specifics).And explain why.
We wont get it spot everytime and we wont be right everytime but we are trying to find that low risk high probability trade to hop on.
I'll see what I can find.

 

[nizar]

Can,

APZ looks the goods to me.
Also see ADY.

In my opinion.

 

[nizar]

QBE yes there is support.
But for me -- id rather buy it when it breaks the overhead resistance.
Currently theres no reason from the chart as to why the price wont range trade for a while.

If you want to trade the range and make a few % thats fine current levels give a good entry.
But for a higher R/R trade if look for an entry when it breaks to the upside, from the trading range.

In my opinion.

 

[CFD]

ADY is not on the list, I guess you like APZ because it's gone through $2.50?
What else can we look at on the chart? In the volume spikes above "1" for June, I see the first one as longer term buying and the second shorter term professional selling. Where does this leave APZ?

 

[nizar]

ADY is not on the list, I guess you like APZ because it's gone through $2.50?

Yes -- blue skies now

 

[CanOz]

QBE yes there is support.
But for me -- id rather buy it when it breaks the overhead resistance.
Currently theres no reason from the chart as to why the price wont range trade for a while.

If you want to trade the range and make a few % thats fine current levels give a good entry.
But for a higher R/R trade if look for an entry when it breaks to the upside, from the trading range.

In my opinion.

Well this certainly makes for educational discussion....i like this. In my view, the reason QBE would be a stronger low risk opportunity now, would be that its closer to confirmed strong support. If you took the posi later, after the breakout was confirmed, it could slip back below again as it did already, and in fact thats what it did to me the other day. It was at that point i could understand why, in this case, that the lower risk position was after it bounced off the support.

This also to me is the paradox associated with ADY, i put some comments on the chart.

Thanks for your input Nizar, remember its not about being right here for me, i just want to pick everyones brain a bit.

Thanks,

 

[motorway]

ADY is not on the list, I guess you like APZ because it's gone through $2.50?
What else can we look at on the chart? In the volume spikes above "1" for June, I see the first one as longer term buying and the second shorter term professional selling. Where does this leave APZ?

If it was professional selling
why the response of the subsequent bars?

Just a suggestion

But it looks a little like absorption of supply
as the stock encountered resistance

someone was buying that volume and the price has continued on UP since

When looking at the action in one BAR
look to at it as a test and the following bars as a response

Price moved UP from the first High Volume bar
That did indicate new demand

In a range esp In a decline
price moves ahead of the sellers
When it turns back up that selling is MET

Is it absorbed
or does it end the chapter..

What Do you make of the last bar ?

motorway

 

[motorway]

Well this certainly makes for educational discussion....i like this. In my view, the reason QBE would be a stronger low risk opportunity now, would be that its closer to confirmed strong support. If you took the posi later, after the breakout was confirmed, it could slip back below again as it did already, and in fact thats what it did to me the other day. It was at that point i could understand why, in this case, that the lower risk position was after it bounced off the support.

This also to me is the paradox associated with ADY, i put some comments on the chart.

Thanks for your input Nizar, remember its not about being right here for me, i just want to pick everyones brain a bit.

Thanks,

Buy SUPPORT
Sell Resistance

At the top of the rally
a natural reaction at least is to be expected

But with QBE ( I will have to have a close look )
What is the C.REL.Strength

last I looked
Stocks in this group were going NOWHERE

Buy support WITH strength
Sell resistance WITH Weakness

motorway

 

[nomore4s]

What Do you make of the last bar ?

motorway

Just a stab in the dark here motorway (just learning).

But a close near its highs with a good rise in price and low vol, does this indicate that supply is running out or has run out?

 

[tech/a]

Further to Motorways Great info.

Something I have picked up from Both Steidlmayer
and to some degree Darvas.

Hope this is helping you identify some lower risk opportunity setups CanOz
Note also that the best moves within an up move come from very tight consolidation areas which become very strong support Zones.
Look for these WITHIN an up move. Better still try to identify the up mave as a wave 3--particularly when you notice a wave 1 high being taken out---signalling a new wave 3 is now underway.(Second chart!)

So I wouldnt be buying this yet either!

NOR QBE!!

 

[CanOz]

Just a stab in the dark here motorway (just learning).

But a close near its highs with a good rise in price and low vol, does this indicate that supply is running out or has run out?

That was 19 million shares traded, its above average volume still, the close is not that far off the high, its bloody bullish to me!

Heres another that looks like accumulation, Nizar, might be in your universe, you the one accumulating?

Cheers,

 

[tech/a]

NM4s.

To me the wide range and the lower volume is a little confusing in ISOLATION.
Supply AND demand are so so.
But looking at the last 2 bars before it which were low volume and tighter range this indicated that there wasnt supply pressure and lack of demand.
So as a story over a few bars I'm with you,supply decreasing (Being overcome by demand).More to come adding to the picture Monday.

 

[chrisdedavid]

Thanks Tech for your input.

Most of what i'll present here in the next few days are charts for the watchlists. I've got quite a few more yet to come. Your comments, however stupid they make me feel at times, are a learning experience for me and
I really appreciate the comments on them. Remember i can go short (in theory) and this is an area where i'm even worse at picking opportunities, IMO.

From a non experienced thrill seeker (me) ... I reckon "go for it" but with a small amount of money that you don't care loosing. example Short sell at 30c and limit loss at 50c or so. Hold till you think it's on it's way up... I'd be reading news on the Company daily and keeping an eye on profit report times. (remember, I know nothing )

 

[nomore4s]

That was 19 million shares traded, its above average volume still, the close is not that far off the high, its bloody bullish to me!

Heres another that looks like accumulation, Nizar, might be in your universe, you the one accumulating?

Cheers,

Sorry cana I was talking about APZ as per motorways post and not ADY.

Thanks Tech for the reply, will keep on eye on it next week to see the picture unfold. Finding VSA very interesting.