MND - Monadelphous Group

[peter2]

Looking over some charts of companies that reported well. My definition of well is seeing the price spike up after the report is released. MND fits this category. I've bought a half position today. The chart looks sloppy (= corrective) and I'm hoping the next swing is going to be up, back to 15.50. Expect the price to fall 0.32 when it goes XD soon. My line in the sand is 13.50.

 

[peter2]

MND is looking better after a month of strong demand. The Sept18 monthly bar was a bullish outside reversal bar, off support and with above average volume. All good. Not far to get to a prior high ($16.8).

 

[luutzu]

MND is looking better after a month of strong demand. The Sept18 monthly bar was a bullish outside reversal bar, off support and with above average volume. All good. Not far to get to a prior high ($16.8).

View attachment 89558

Could be just me but seem there's some market manipulation going on to depress the share price around the dividend-reinvestment price setting period.

Man, these guys sure know how to sit on their cash pile. I don't mind it, it show careful management... something you need to be in the construction/engineering business.

But afraid that sitting on it too long will see missed opportunities, or be taken over on the cheap.

 

[Triple B]

MND is looking better after a month of strong demand. The Sept18 monthly bar was a bullish outside reversal bar, off support and with above average volume. All good. Not far to get to a prior high ($16.8).

View attachment 89558

Looks good. appears accumulation under $15. high vol downbar as price hit $15 then quiet accumulation. lower vol mark up indicates supply still being held as demand is medium. ex div on 13th Oct used as catalyst for mark up as divvy chasers buy up to $18.50 . will need the help to jump Resistance at $16.50
price below Vwap $16.93 Broke all MAs
Got all the signs.
Good luck
Just noticed the high vol after the gap above the trading range. Lots of stock changing hands there.
top 20 share holder hold 54%

 

[luutzu]

Just realised that MND is a rare 112-bagger since 1994.

Its share price in 1994 was around 50c. Had a stock split of 1 to 4 in 2005... not counting the dividends, that's some great gain.

 

[luutzu]

Just done reading through 24 years of MND's annual reports. Yea, I got no life.

One of Australia's best companies I reckon.

Its drive into Infrastructure started way back in the early 2000s, in the middle of a surge in mining and mierals; formally established around 2011 with management teasing that big hunt for a faster push into "infrastructure"... any time now boys.

As to its infrastructure plans... incredible how Rubino and Velletri's stated objective for it are already gaining great traction without the market, I guess, appreciating it so much.

There's the water infrastructure and irrigation; the JV with ZEM Energy winning windfarm projects - four in the past year.

The geographic expansion for Water, irrigation... I'm guessing also renewable into NZ.

There's the Oyu Tolgoi project they've been hanging around with RIO in Mongolia since, from memory, about 2013. They've won a couple work packages and things are about to pick up there. With MND establishing an upskilling and training operation in Mongolia specifically for the project... they're going to win work either way I reckon.

There's the 3 major Iron Ore projects with FMG, RIO, BHP that's been greenlighted and MND is bidding for all three of them. They're each about $300M a pack.

With the liberation of Venezuela, and soon Iran... the four or so years of oilers starving... opportunities in this sector will likely pick up soon.

Funny that with fossil picking up, investment in renewable will also likely to pick up too. MND's Zenviron JV should further benefit from that.

I own the stock and could be biased... but looks like the ducks are lining up... and MND got $208M in cash, practically zero debt, great management and highly capable workforce to take advantage of that.

My "research" and "forecast"...

 

[peter2]

This thread has been quiet due to the falling price of MND shares. However I noticed today that there seems to have been some accumulation recently. The weekly chart shows multiple bars with tails (closes off the lows). Average trading volumes have been above average as well. I've had a nibble and will add when price closes above my break-out line.

 

[RobL]

OK, I've done a search and there doesn't seem to be a thread for this company.

This one has been on my watchlist for a while and appears to be good value at $6.00. Has been up to $7.00 when the resource sector was booming.

This is one of those companies that is still resources driven but does not have the same volatility as a true resource/exploration company. In other words, commodity price fluctuations shouldn't have such an impact on the share price.

Would any one else be prepared to make a comment or observation about MND and perhaps suggest a buy, sell or hold rating?

Most brokers seem pretty bullish on it.

The daily price 50MA has just fallen below the 200MA indicating a bearish trend.

 

[Porper]

The daily price 50MA has just fallen below the 200MA indicating a bearish trend.

True, but when looking at reversal setups the trend will usually be down, depending on your timeframe.

 

[peter2]

As @Porper mentions, this setup I've posted on MND is a reversal setup. The weekly price trend is most definitely down and one up bar doesn't make a new up trend or even change the down-trend. Perhaps I should have posted it in the "Have we hit the bottom yet?" thread.

I like to have a go at a few reversals in my portfolios when the overall market is struggling and I'm unaware of any issues with the company. @luutzu has always given this company a thumbs up. It's similar to a value investor buying a beaten down stock that might provide a good reward for the risk. I've a list of stocks that are in strong monthly and weekly up trends that I'd like to buy/trade when their prices dip.

MND is near the bottom of a monthly trading range.

 

[Trav.]

I was about to post here yesterday on the way that the market responded to the announcement that MND released ( lack of response ) and thought nah then deleted it.

Then today the SP went up 2% ( with most of the market ) and thought why not post something here as it might stimulate some conversation.

I am short on this so we will see who comes out on top ( i am thinking that I am probably the underdog in this fight with points in the early rounds going to MND )

Chart - comments re news today is actually yesterday as stated above I had typed this out last night.

so up 2.1% today with a high of $17.495 which could have been a gain of ~3.5 which would of hurt me but closed lower than the open ( red bar ) hopefully tomorrow it will continue my down trend

 

[Dona Ferentes]

It's a lovely stock to own and really hard to sell... the CGT would kill me!. Bought before the 1 for 4 split and now I usually get initial capital back each year by way of dividends.

The management has run a tight ship, rode the resources boom in WA then, in the downturn, diversified into new areas like infrastructure and renewables, where margins are lower but enabled them to keep their loyal workforce. They have maintained relationships with the majors for decades. BHP and Rio are still important sources of new work.

 

[galumay]

Yep, its a well run business. I sold out a couple of years ago. One I should have kept holding.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

.one of those companies that is still resources driven but does not have the same volatility as a true resource/exploration company. In other words, commodity price fluctuations shouldn't have such an impact on the share price.

I've been trying to work the vol out. Not directly related to commodities but a by a second variable. The lags in meeting demand are extended as the complexity increases. Getting projects up can take decades. Then if there's oversupply and lower receipts, what happens? Cost cutting, abandoned projects, maintenance delayed or on hold. But can only do this for a while.

A smart company like MND doesn't run too much debt, or bid just for the sake of work. Others do and get crunched.

I notice a lot of commentary is trying to get a TA interpretation on shareprice. The lumpy nature of contract winning and second dependence on the big boys implies, for me, balance sheet strength is more important for performance.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Serious accident in Kalgoorlie workshop. Death of a worker.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Strategic review of Water Infrastructure business

- Several water projects approaching completion have recently experienced an escalation in contract disputes and disappointing levels of profitability.
- After undertaking a strategic and operational review of its Water Infrastructure business in Australia and New Zealand, the Company has decided to discontinue its operations in New Zealand and consolidate its east coast engineering construction operations into a single Eastern Australian business unit. The restructure will enable the Company to reduce costs and focus on improving the quality of its earnings from the water sector.
- As a result of the decision to refocus the business and the disappointing project outcomes, the Board of Directors will make a provision of $14 million before tax in the financial report for the year ended 30 June 2020 for project underperformance and restructuring costs.

- dropped 10%

 

[Dona Ferentes]

make that 15% - professionals @ close

 

[finicky]

Monadelphous

With April's close below March's close it wouldn't surprise me to see MND revisit the GFC and 2015 lows of ~$6 in this climate. Might sound a bit glib but I have stared at the chart for 10 whole minutes.

Great company but it doesn't seem worth buying except near major lows - assuming one can pick it.

Treating the chart as a double top, the price should never have sliced through the $12 trough - that gives me a rough measured target of $4, so $6 seems a decent possibility given the s.p has been there twice before.

I remember chatting about MND on another forum during the GFC; the $6 number came up then but it seemed so unlikely for the quality company that MND is. Anyway when it actually reached that price I still lacked the nerve to buy any.

Be great to pick up MND and cousin LYL at a major low.

MND Mthly with April's close not showing yet

 

[finicky]

@Dona Ferentes following LYL comment:
Yes, looks like it'll be a long wait for $6 MND now, have to wait for the 2021 'global deflationary bust' @DaveHcontrarian
Strong move above the ABC April corrective move and as long as it holds today looks good for more I suspect.
Not a trader and trying to accumulate cash as soon as fy20 concludes so I'll wait for a major low if/when in future, MND high on my wishlist.

 

[finicky]

Still waiting for $6. Maybe in a year or so? In my top 10.

Monadelphous wins $150m in mining deals

Australian Associated Press
1 June 2020

Engineering group Monadelphous has won around $150 million worth of contracts from the energy and resources sector, including BHP, Fortescue and Rio Tinto.

The big three miners have all handed Monadelphous more work from their iron ore operations in Western Australia's Pilbara region.

Monadelphous will take on the dewatering of surplus water for BHP at one mining area, and its time on BHP's engineering panel has also been extended by two years to enable it to provide civil, structural, mechanical, piping and marine services.

Rio Tinto has given the company a three-year deal to maintain its Pilbara marine infrastructure, while Fortescue has extended Monadelphous' two contracts for fixed plant maintenance and shutdown crane services by another year.

In Queensland, Monadelphous has gained a separate four-year contract to continue providing mechanical and electrical maintenance services in coal seam gas from an unnamed customer.

Monadelphous has also retained business with Newcrest Mining in Papua New Guinea.
The company will provide civil, mechanical, structural, piping, blast and paint services to gold mining operations on Lihr Island for three years.