MND - Monadelphous Group

[So_Cynical]

Certainly looks to be a good time to buy if you like it, SP certain can move around a bit over the long term considering the revenue and profit doesn't seem to move much.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

MND holding its AGM today, so the communications are flowing.

In the slides there are some impressive photos of recent jobs done. The size of, especially, the Pilbara iron ore and LNG projects is "Boys Own" stuff.

OUTLOOK
• Australian iron ore industry remains buoyant
• Significant capital and operating expenditure levels driving heightened demand
• Maintenance activity expected to be strong
• Demand for battery metals rapidly increasing, presenting opportunities in Australia and overseas
• Market conditions in oil and gas improving
• Transition to clean energy will drive renewable energy developments
• 1H22 revenue expected to be similar to pcp
• FY22 revenue forecast to be lower than FY21
• Stronger construction activity expected in FY23
• Skilled labour shortages expected to continue
• Focus on attraction and retention, working collaboratively with customers and strategic targeting of new work

 

[DrBourse]

Just looked at the Financials for MND.

I would suggest caution.

Balance Sheet Ratio’s & Margins of Safety are Very Good – BUT Current IV is $8.82 to $9.34, which, with todays SP @ $9.23 makes MND FULLY PRICED atm.

SP is still in a 12mth long DOWNTREND, although it looks like finding Support around the $9.00 Line.

Most ST Indicators are not happy, with most being below their Centrelines, and others close to the Oversold Lines.

Any immediate SP rise should be treated with Caution IMO.

Personally, I would be waiting for another ST pullback B4 I considered trading MND again.

NOTE: I do NOT hold MND atm.

Remember to DYOR

 

[DrBourse]

My Research on MND Financials for anyone that's interested.

Rember to DYOR - My evels of tollerance may not meet your needs.

Cheers,
DrB

 

[DrBourse]

Today is 16/12/21 10am - Back on 23/11/21 (ABOVE), I posted my Analysis on MND.

The Chart below shows that punters had 2 chances to buy in @ abt $9.00.

Anyone astute enough to buy in on 29/11/21, the First opportunity, with a sell sometime the next day would have made a reasonable profit.

The second opportunity was on 6/12/21.

Cheers.
DrB

 

[Miner]

Today is 16/12/21 10am - Back on 23/11/21 (ABOVE), I posted my Analysis on MND.

The Chart below shows that punters had 2 chances to buy in @ abt $9.00.

Anyone astute enough to buy in on 29/11/21, the First opportunity, with a sell sometime the next day would have made a reasonable profit.

The second opportunity was on 6/12/21.

Cheers.
DrB

@DrBourse - did you buy the medicine as per your own prescription

 

[divs4ever]

my initial buy was in September 2021 ( @ $9.75 , so 'fully priced ' )

have a second order in @ $8.30

but be careful i am only nibbling at this

 

[DrBourse]

@DrBourse - did you buy the medicine as per your own prescription

Hi Miner,
I am no longer authorised to give Buy Sell advice, I can only suggest something punters may care to "have a look at".
I always give my TA &/or FA observations, and always quote the standard DYOR phrase.
Just realised I may have given too much info away on my last FMG post - Ooh Ahh.
Better crawl back into my cave - time to hibernate again.
DrB

 

[divs4ever]

my tip for the February comp. is MND ( which i am expecting to slide )

i have an order in @ $8.30 ( just a nibble )

but weakened earlier this week to also pick up a small parcel @ $8.90

now while i expect the mining infrastructure spending boom to begin in the next 2 years , the exposure to energy infrastructure will make some rather cautious

DYOR

good luck everyone

 

[Dona Ferentes]

MND doing quite well today .... +10% and above $12.50. Closing on a high?

No news; I wonder how the other contractors are doing?

 

[galumay]

Most of them seem to be making money hand over fist, but Mr Market is disinterested.

 

[divs4ever]

MND doing quite well today .... +10% and above $12.50. Closing on a high?

No news; I wonder how the other contractors are doing?

MCE ( i don't hold ) put out an ann today on a contract win lifting them around 10%

 

[divs4ever]

Most of them seem to be making money hand over fist, but Mr Market is disinterested.

i would be watching for staff shortages and cost blowouts , so carefully carefully

is up nearly $6 for me since i bought in November 2021

MIN has been a little goer for me since buying in December 2018 ( av. SP $13.92 )

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Monadelphous continues to pick up contracts across the major miners:

new contracts and contract extensions in the resources and infrastructure sectors totalling approximately $220 million.

The Company has secured a number of contracts for work in the Pilbara region of Western Australia, including:
• A five-year contract to provide maintenance, repairs, general shutdown services and minor projects across Fortescue Metals Group’s Pilbara operations;
• A multi-disciplinary contract with Rio Tinto for the construction of a new conveyor at the Tom Price iron ore mine, which is expected to be completed in the first half of 2023; and
• A contract associated with the construction of a pipeline and access road at the Roy Hill Mine site. The work is expected to be completed towards the end of 2022.

And in Queensland, Monadelphous has secured a 12-month extension to its existing contract with BHP Mitsubishi Alliance for the provision of dragline shutdown and maintenance services to its operations in the Bowen Basin.

 

[divs4ever]

was an inspired ( lucky ) glance to buy the first parcel ( of MND ) back in September 2021 @ $9.75

having already dipped my toes buying more in January this year @ $8.90 , was just an obvious choice

will sit back and wait for the actual mining investment downturn so can buy more cheaper

 

[Dona Ferentes]

FF dividend of 25c, (total for FY is 49c). dividend payout ratio 90% ... which means performance and returns are conditional on continuing work. So we turn to the future:

Markets and Outlook
The outlook for Monadelphous’ core markets continues to be strong. The resources sector in Australia and in the Company’s overseas locations will continue to provide a large number of significant opportunities across a broad range of commodity markets.

The outlook for the Australian iron ore industry is expected to remain buoyant with capital and operating expenditures required to sustain iron ore production levels continuing to drive strong demand for the Company’s services.

High levels of global demand for battery metals are driving significant investment in lithium, copper, nickel and rare earths which will provide numerous prospects in the coming years. These markets, along with the gold sector, will present ongoing opportunities for Monadelphous in Australia, South America, Mongolia and Papua New Guinea.

Conditions in the oil and gas sector are also buoyant with construction opportunities from the development of new LNG projects currently in the pipeline, and demand for oil and gas maintenance services expected to remain strong.

Australia’s transition towards clean energy will continue to strengthen and provide opportunities in the renewable energy sector. An increasing pipeline of new wind farms coming to market in the next few years will provide opportunities for Zenviron, both in the electricity market as well as in the private sector, as industrial operators move rapidly to meet their decarbonisation objectives. Rapid development of the hydrogen sector is also expected to provide opportunities in coming years.

More broadly, buoyant conditions and aging assets across all resources and energy sectors will continue to drive strong demand for maintenance services.

The shortage of skilled labour will be the most significant challenge for the Company’s operations, especially in Australia. The Company is also mindful of the challenges posed by heightening supply chain risks and an escalating cost environment.

With capacity constrained, the Company will be taking a strategic and targeted approach to new work opportunities, engaging and collaborating earlier with customers and focusing on earnings quality.

The Company will continue to focus on employee attraction, training and development and making Monadelphous a great place to work. With travel restrictions lifted, the Company has also recently re-engaged its international labour sourcing strategy.

Supported by its strong balance sheet, the Company will continue to assess acquisition opportunities to achieve ongoing service and customer market diversification and support long-term sustainable growth.

As highlighted in the 31 December 2021 interim results, following a ramp down in construction activity as a number of large-scale projects completed in the first half of FY22, a new wave of construction projects, currently in the tendering phase, is expected to see activity ramp up over the 22/23 financial year and into following years. Revenue for FY23 will be dependent on the timing of awards and commencement of these projects, and will likely be skewed to the second half. ....

(HOLD ... since 2005)

 

[Dona Ferentes]

And into THE index

MND to be added to the S&P/ ASX200 in December

 

[divs4ever]

And into THE index

MND to be added to the S&P/ ASX200 in December

i wonder if that will help or just allow more traders to sell short

there are some take-over plays in motion MND could stay in the TOP 200 for a while ( as normal residents in the TOP 200 disappear )

 

[systematic]

Have entered MND into the 2023 yearly comp. They've entered the main index, and broker consensus is buy/hold. This stock is quite capable of making decent sized moves...I think it could run up a positive return in 2023, and that's about all I'm going for!

 

[Dona Ferentes]

• revenue of $953 million for the six months ended December 31, with record half year maintenance and industrial services revenue.
• The result was "driven by a strong demand for maintenance services across the resources and energy sectors on the back of favourable commodity prices, high levels of production and aging site infrastructure."
• Delivered an improved EBITDA margin for the half year of 6.11 per cent, up from 5.76 per cent for the previous FY.
• Net profit after tax for the period was $29.1 million
• earnings per share of 30.5¢
• Declared a fully franked interim dividend of 24¢ a share