MCC - Macarthur Coal

[michael_selway]

There we goes, Macarthur have announced a drop in profits in the first half soon after estimating. Advice, don't estimate, keep quiet.
Profits are now set in the range $75 - $125 million against an estimate of $150 - $160 million to Dec 31st. Worryingly, there will be no interim dividend. Is confidence at MCC evaporating?
Cutbacks now at Moorevale and Coppabella in QLD and shipments postponed.
Sales forecast of 3.9 million tonnes against a previous forecast of 5 million tonnes.

Yep and just wondering, do you know what % of MCC sales are thermal coal as opposed to cokign coal?

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2008 2009 2010 2011
EPS 28.0 135.8 177.1 135.7
DPS 17.0 68.0 114.7 70.0

Also interesting is:

16th of October: ASX release Upgrade the Half Year Profit Guidance and then on
13th of November: ASX release, Reaffirm that is on track to meet its profit guidance and then on
16th of December: ASX release, announce Half Year Profit Downgrade and suspension of interim dividend

Date: 3/12/2008
Author: Tristan Swanwick
Source: The Courier-Mail --- Page: 3
A committal hearing in the Brisbane Magistrate's Court has found KenTalbot, ex-CEO of Macarthur Coal, and Gordon Nuttall, former Queenslandgovernment minister, will stand trial on corruption charges. The District Courtwill hear the evidence in 2009, with Nuttall maintaining loan payments made tohim by Talbot were above board

thx

MS

 

[noirua]

Hi m_s, mainly PCI coal as the company built washery plant to upgrade the thermal - FLX are doing the same at their Yarrabee mine. In May this was great news and now most unfortunate.
Still, it can be sold as thermal coal but the profit margin is much slimmer.

 

[noirua]

What a right mess we've got ourselves into.

MCC seem to be heading for exchange losses on hedging of around $80 - $100 million ($48 million in the first half) for the full year as the positions run out on 30th June 2009.

Coal sales have improved in the second quarter but more thermal is being sold in place of more profitable PCI coal.

Still, the stock has fallen from around $20 right down below $3.00, so the punishment appears well and truly done, maybe overdone.

 

[michael_selway]

What a right mess we've got ourselves into.

MCC seem to be heading for exchange losses on hedging of around $80 - $100 million ($48 million in the first half) for the full year as the positions run out on 30th June 2009.

Coal sales have improved in the second quarter but more thermal is being sold in place of more profitable PCI coal.

Still, the stock has fallen from around $20 right down below $3.00, so the punishment appears well and truly done, maybe overdone.

Hm yeah could be a bottom in this one

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2008 2009 2010 2011
EPS 28.0 68.1 65.0 128.7
DPS 17.0 9.0 16.0 56.7

Date: 28/1/2009
Author: Ayesha de Kretser
Source: The Australian Financial Review --- Page: 14
Coal prices are expected to fall dramatically in the year from 1 April 2009.Supply constraints lifted prices to record highs in 2008. The price of cokingcoal is expected to drop by up to 60 per cent, to $US120 a tonne. Thermal coalis forecast to fall by up to 45 per cent to $US70 a tonne

Date: 28/1/2009
Author: Luke Forrestal
Source: The Australian Financial Review --- Page: 14
Macarthur Coal will be able to meet its revised sales targets due to itsflexibility. Demand for pulverised coal injection coal is declining, but some ofits product can be sold as thermal coal. The miner sold 2.3 million tonnes inthe six months to 31 December 2008. It is confident that it will reach itstarget by selling another 1.6 million tonnes in the next half

Date: 28/1/2009
Author: Matt Chambers
Source: The Australian --- Page: 20
Coking coal producer Macarthur Coal has warned that it will record an unrealisedloss of $98m due to its decision to hedge against the Australian currency'srise in mid-2008. The dollar has since fallen substantially against its UScounterpart. Macarthur is also suffering due to weaker demand by steel makers,while the thermal coal supplied by rival Centennial Coal to power plants isstill sought after

 

[gav]

MCC has gone through the roof lately. Late Feb it was in the $2.30's, closed at $3.50 today!

And the majority of the rise has been this week. Anyone know why?

 

[roofa]

MCC has gone through the roof lately. Late Feb it was in the $2.30's, closed at $3.50 today!

And the majority of the rise has been this week. Anyone know why?

Good solid company with a bright future that was oversold like so many others IMO. Why was it sold down to $2.30? Back hander for no dividend perhaps. But it did provide an opportunity to those interested to acquire at a more than reasonable entry price.

 

[noirua]

Seems to be a lot of people looking for income in the coal sector together with a takeover bonus in mind. Risk in markets looks a lot less now and MCC are a well run company, with a long history of growth.

 

[tommymac]

Analysts are divided in regards to their recommendations of MCC.

On Aspect Huntley they have 13 analysts with recommendations for MCC.

Sell -5
Hold -3
Buy -5

:dunno::dunno::dunno:

 

[roofa]

Analysts are divided in regards to their recommendations of MCC.

On Aspect Huntley they have 13 analysts with recommendations for MCC.

Sell -5
Hold -3
Buy -5

:dunno::dunno::dunno:

Yep, that's exactly how I feel about MCC. I saw that IOOF made a decent profit out of this one over a 2-3 week period in March.

 

[noirua]

MCC may well have fallen much too far and in the general stock recovery MAY well continue to prove this weeks moves to have signalled an opportunity.
Most of the bad news on currency hedging, higher grade coal being sold as thermal and cancellation of the interim dividend, are well known.

 

[michael_selway]

Yep, that's exactly how I feel about MCC. I saw that IOOF made a decent profit out of this one over a 2-3 week period in March.

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2008 2009 2010 2011
EPS 28.0 71.3 37.5 52.3
DPS 17.0 4.0 13.7 16.0

Date: 23/3/2009
Author: Luke Forrestal
Source: The Australian Financial Review --- Page: 13
Macarthur Coal appears attractive to mining investor, Nathan Tinkler. Tinkler sold his 10 per cent stake in the coal miner in May 2009 for $A20 a share. He said its current share price of about $A3.50 makes a takeover appealing, while management are not increasing the value of the company. However, he said that the major shareholders are unlikely to accept an offer.

2249 GMT [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: UBS upgrades Macarthur Coal (MCC.AU) to Buy from
Neutral as settlement of coal prices boosts forecasts for miners. Notes settlement of
hard coking coal at US$129 a metric ton versus UBS forecast of US$85 a ton. Says miners
have demonstrated their pricing power, which results from a highly concentrated market,
proactive supply cutbacks and lack of consumer pricing power. "In our view, it is
difficult to describe the settlement outcome as anything but a significant victory for
mining companies," UBS says. Prices for Macarthur's PCI coal also came in ahead
of expectations; UBS ups target price for Macarthur to A$4.50 from A$2.50, versus last
trade of A$3.78. Boosts earnings forecasts for a range of coal miners. Says Centennial
(CEY.AU) and Macarthur look the cheapest, maintains Neutral ratings for Coal & Allied
(CNA.AU) and Felix (FLX.AU)

thx

MS

 

[noirua]

China CITIC ups stake in Macarthur Coal: http://uk.reuters.com/article/oilRpt/idUKSYD42954320090402

 

[roofa]

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2008 2009 2010 2011
EPS 28.0 71.3 37.5 52.3
DPS 17.0 4.0 13.7 16.0

Got this one >5% off it's low so again more than happy to hold for the longer term.

 

[noirua]

Macarthur coal appears to be on a roll. Cancelling the interim dividend whilst sorting out coal supplies seems to be a trick they've got right for once. Some stake building is going on and interest may continue on for a while yet, on the back of this.

 

[noirua]

Macarthur coal appears to be on a roll. Cancelling the interim dividend whilst sorting out coal supplies seems to be a trick they've got right for once. Some stake building is going on and interest may continue on for a while yet, on the back of this.

The roll continues for Macarthur as the stock price chases along in a seeming race with Felix Resources. Both companies seem similar in their present outlook in unloading thermal and PCI coal on to the spot market.
PCI coal appears to be the name of the game here as customers prefer this, now cheap, coal instead of lesser grades of thermal.
Macarthur could well surprise here with better than expected end year results.

 

[michael_selway]

The roll continues for Macarthur as the stock price chases along in a seeming race with Felix Resources. Both companies seem similar in their present outlook in unloading thermal and PCI coal on to the spot market.
PCI coal appears to be the name of the game here as customers prefer this, now cheap, coal instead of lesser grades of thermal.
Macarthur could well surprise here with better than expected end year results.

Nice move up

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2008 2009 2010 2011
EPS 28.0 72.4 32.0 52.3
DPS 17.0 3.0 9.7 16.0

Date: 23/3/2009
Author: Luke Forrestal
Source: The Australian Financial Review --- Page: 13
Macarthur Coal appears attractive to mining investor, Nathan Tinkler. Tinkler sold his 10 per cent stake in the coal miner in May 2009 for $A20 a share. He said its current share price of about $A3.50 makes a takeover appealing, while management are not increasing the value of the company. However, he said that the major shareholders are unlikely to accept an offer.

2249 GMT [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: UBS upgrades Macarthur Coal (MCC.AU) to Buy from
Neutral as settlement of coal prices boosts forecasts for miners. Notes settlement of
hard coking coal at US$129 a metric ton versus UBS forecast of US$85 a ton. Says miners
have demonstrated their pricing power, which results from a highly concentrated market,
proactive supply cutbacks and lack of consumer pricing power. "In our view, it is
difficult to describe the settlement outcome as anything but a significant victory for
mining companies," UBS says. Prices for Macarthur's PCI coal also came in ahead
of expectations; UBS ups target price for Macarthur to A$4.50 from A$2.50, versus last
trade of A$3.78. Boosts earnings forecasts for a range of coal miners. Says Centennial
(CEY.AU) and Macarthur look the cheapest, maintains Neutral ratings for Coal & Allied
(CNA.AU) and Felix (FLX.AU)

thx

MS

 

[noirua]

Nice move up

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2008 2009 2010 2011
EPS 28.0 72.4 32.0 52.3
DPS 17.0 3.0 9.7 16.0
[/IMG]
thx MS

Nice group of assessments there m_s, seems to cover the overall view of Macarthur Coal at the present time.

 

[noirua]

MCC have announced a successful oversubscribed placing of $190 million of company stock at $6.00 a share.
Existing holders will be given the opportunity to buy up to $15,000 of stock at $6.00 a share. An announcement on the issue will be given to the ASX shortly.
The money will go towards the development of the Middlemount Mine.

 

[noirua]

Macarthur Coal have run up very quickly indeed and all this new stock and need for cash, puts increased dividends further down the line. A good company now that needs these higher prices for thermal coal to spread to the PCI coal sector as well.
Need the cash for further investments elsewhere, not wanting to break my 70% to 80% cash and bonds rule, so I'm out despite a small loss overall this time.

 

[jayinoz]

MCC has run up 9% today, I can find no news from anywhere on why this is so.... Anyone know any reason why this stock is running up so quickly when the commodities have come right down today???

Darn it- I should have purchase their $6 offer just over a month ago.

I do not think I should make the same mistake with the WHC offer of $3.05, when it is trading 15% over this price.

MCC was trading at only approx 5% over their offer for the majority of the offer period. Now it skyrocketing. Fundamentally at PE= 11 it still quite good yet I would like better than 2% yields. Wish this company would pass on their profits greater than 2% pa.

It very rare to get over 5% yield in the Energy\Materials sector. Yet the few that have had big yield have really run up hot in the last month. Eg. Boart