MCC - Macarthur Coal

[michael_selway]

Quite a fall for MCC from the $20 level only, what seems, a few months ago. After following the stock for ages I bought for the first time. It seemed as if someone bit my hand off when my bid went in.

I think you got a really good deal in current markey conditions

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2008 2009 2010 2011
EPS 28.0 177.7 315.6 339.5
DPS 17.0 88.0 165.5 171.4

Btw what other coal stocks are you looking at?

Date: 1/9/2008
Author: Matthew Cranston
Source: The Australian Financial Review --- Page: 49
A 4,900-hectare grazing property near Emerald in Queensland was bought for $A4.8million in late August 2008. Property developer Jim Gorman purchased Metro afterselling his stake in coal miner Jellinbah Resources, a company he helped developin the Bowen Basin with Ken Talbot 20 years ago

thx

MS

 

[roland]

MCC held up better than most yesterday.

Seems the coal industry is set to remain stable if the following report is correct:

from
http://steelguru.com/news/index/200...coking_coal_prices_set_to_go_up_-_Report.html

October 01, 2008


Global coking coal prices set to go up - Report
Mr Steve Leer chairperson & CEO of Arch Coal Inc said that globally, coal prices are witnessing a significant spike, thanks to the growing steel demand and supply constraints. Coal, which is one of the major raw materials for producing steel, is already short of 25 million tonnes to 35 million tonnes in 2008 fiscal across the globe, which is likely to reach 70 million tonnes in 2009 fiscal.

According to Macquarie Bank Limited, coal production from Australia may decline by approximately 15 million tonnes or about 12% of Australia's annual exports in 2008 fiscal. Recent floods in Australia forced several coal producers to shut down their mines, resulting in a huge decline in coal output in the first quarter of 2008.

In addition, a power crisis faced in South Africa in January 2008 and thereafter a reduced power supply from Electricity Supply Commission resulted in a shutdown of several mines and forced coal producers to cut their output, which further decreased the coal production.

China plans to reduce exports of coal in 2008 fiscal, as it remains concerned with its domestic power needs, since two third of China's energy production depends on coal. Moreover, in order to curb the ever-increasing inflation rate and the over heated Chinese economy, the government of China raised its export tax for steel billets from 15 percent to 25%, effective from January 1st 2008, to reduce the inflow of funds.

This resulted in a tight global coal supply condition, leading to a hike in coal prices. While China's coal exports are expected to decline moderately, coal production capacity is expected to increase to 2.73 billion tons in 2008 fiscal, supported by expansion of coalmines and technical renovations to meet the growing demand from domestic market. Furthermore, with the steep increase in oil and gas prices, coal's importance in the world energy mix is set to increase in the future.

According to the International Energy Agency, there are abundance of coal resources of approximately 200 years worth of coal reserves, evenly distributed in the US with 27%, Russia with 17%, China with 13% and India with 10%. It is estimated that by 2030, coal will account for 27% of the global energy mix, up from the 24% that it holds today. Given the abundance and accessibility of coal resources, the increased usage of coal will facilitate minimizing the global energy crisis.

Going forward, the demand supply mismatch is expected to last for at least two to three years before it recovers from the supply bottlenecks in Australia and ease power shortages in South Africa. Hence, coal price outlook in 2009 fiscal is likely to remain strong with coking coal prices expected to increase to USD 320 a tonne and thermal coal to increase to USD 135 a tonne for 2009 coal year.

Pre-open looks good for a positive day.

 

[noirua]

MCC held up better than most yesterday.

Seems the coal industry is set to remain stable if the following report is correct:

from
http://steelguru.com/news/index/200...coking_coal_prices_set_to_go_up_-_Report.html



Pre-open looks good for a positive day.

Hi roland, I thought MCC were the largest exporters of thermal coal, not coking coal? Thermal coal has fallen by about 25% from its high this year, in US$ terms.

 

[roland]

Thought I would spread my misery around with all my holdings. Maybe my losses will brighten up someone else.

MCC -49.87%

 

[michael_selway]

Thought I would spread my misery around with all my holdings. Maybe my losses will brighten up someone else.

MCC -49.87%

Hm yeah what a turnaround

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2008 2009 2010 2011
EPS 28.0 181.0 327.6 344.5
DPS 17.0 89.5 170.0 177.0

thx

MS

 

[noirua]

Thought I would spread my misery around with all my holdings. Maybe my losses will brighten up someone else.

MCC -49.87%

Don't worry about this depressed price, the company has got more Aussie Dollars pouring in, this quarter, than ever before. Looking fair, have a glass of red wine and a slice of toast and chill out - no worries at all - unless you're a forced seller.

 

[roland]

Don't worry about this depressed price, the company has got more Aussie Dollars pouring in, this quarter, than ever before. Looking fair, have a glass of red wine and a slice of toast and chill out - no worries at all - unless you're a forced seller.

nah, not a forced seller - it's currently on my spreadsheet as a regular dividend income - it's gone past my threshold of worrying about SP

 

[dj_420]

Nice move from MCC over the last couple of days, this stock looked very oversold for one with such high earning potential, I bought in a few days ago at an avg of 5.80 now. Looked good for a move up.

Whilst other resource companies are slashing forecasts and earnings MCC actually increased their estimates. Disc I hold CEY and MCC for fav coal stocks. I would now like to see CEY produce a qtrly as upbeat as MCC.

MCC looking exceptionally cheap based on forward earnings and dividends, assuming they can maintain those divies. Anyone else on ASF holding these guys still?

 

[cruise61]

Nice move from MCC over the last couple of days, this stock looked very oversold for one with such high earning potential, I bought in a few days ago at an avg of 5.80 now. Looked good for a move up.

Whilst other resource companies are slashing forecasts and earnings MCC actually increased their estimates. Disc I hold CEY and MCC for fav coal stocks. I would now like to see CEY produce a qtrly as upbeat as MCC.

MCC looking exceptionally cheap based on forward earnings and dividends, assuming they can maintain those divies. Anyone else on ASF holding these guys still?

Yes good move nice buy ,i grabbed a handfull yestreday at 6.22 not as good as yours but still a very nice kick start to what i hope is a long relationship.

Like they said even during the depressions the chinese still used normal power as do we all which accounts for 40% of the worlds power and rising

I cant see coal doing bad ,its not like steel which we can do without upgrading our cars but we need to see at night and keep cool in summer and warm in winter all these need coal for power source

There are quite a few great coal buys at the moment ,just need to research a bit :0)

 

[gav]

Watching this one with great interest. Almost got to my target buy price the other day. Future earnings look very promising.

 

[Logique]

Also in the coal sector have a read of GCL's quarterly announcement today, and like MCC, see if you can connect the positivity in the announcement with the negativity in the price action of recent months.

Seems to be a monster disconnect going on between share price and company reporting and forecasts. It's down to external forces in the wider financial system I guess. Or the companies themselves are looking ahead through rose-tinted glasses?

I don't know whats going to happen next, but like gav and others am also watching with considerable interest, given the forecast growth and yields on these various coal sector stocks.

 

[roland]

Has MCC been hammered a little too hard? I thought it was only NSW Coal Miners that are going to be affected by the additional costs put forth by the Premier

 

[derty]

from: http://www.tradingmarkets.com/.site/news/Stock News/2011937/ (10-Nov)

Coal miner MacArthur Coal Ltd. (MCC.AU) said Tuesday it's bracing for a downturn in demand for its pulverized coal used in steelmaking, given large cuts among global steel makers.

Steel makers such as ArcelorMittal S.A. (MT), which holds a 19.9% stake in MacArthur, recently announced output cuts of some 35%, and cuts at Chinese steel mills have forced major iron ore miners Companhia Vale do Rio Doce (RIO) and Rio Tinto Ltd. (RTP) to trim production.

The question is how low will the sentiment take them? Panic seems to have set in. Rode the last uptrend for a bit and managed to get out at $7.30. Expecting these will be oversold so will watch and hope to get back in just after the turn.

 

[noirua]

Not my favourite coal stock by far, though it has had great growth over the years. Seems to have gained more confidence on profit forecasts and added a tad on Friday, against the general trend.

 

[roland]

Macarthur eyes BBI's coal port

BusinessSpectator
Macarthur Coal says it is interested in buying a stake in Babcock & Brown Infrastructure's (BBI) Dalrymple Bay coal terminal, if BBI wants to sell it, reported The Australian.

Macarthur's chief executive Nicole Hollows said "we have a robust balance sheet and will consider opportunities," adding that "if the [Dalrymple Bay] terminal became available we will consider that an opportunity."

It was reported that BBI had put its $2.3 billion Dalrymple Bay coal port up for sale this week, to cover debt and find a partner to fund long-term expansion.
It was thought that BBI had been approached by a consortium of miners interested in buying Dalrymple Bay, and has issued confidentiality agreements to interested parties.

A BBI spokeswoman confirmed that the group was testing the market after port users approached it.

She said selling a stake could help fund the port's expansion, but that this did not mean a sale would happen.

She did not confirm whether BBI would want to limit a potential sale to a 49 per cent stake.

But Ms Hollows indicated that interested parties could be eyeing a bigger slice.

 

[noirua]

The present and past views of analysts on Macarthur Coal Ltd.,
http://markets.ft.com/tearsheets/analysis.asp?s=AU:MCC

 

[roland]

well, like most of my other stocks, Macarthur Coal are not worth a brass razoo any more. It's gotten to a level that it's not even worth pulling out of

 

[J.B.Nimble]

well, like most of my other stocks, Macarthur Coal are not worth a brass razoo any more. It's gotten to a level that it's not even worth pulling out of

Then hang in there and be patient - SRL and FLX both in talks with prospective buyers of coal assets at present. The action is just starting...

 

[noirua]

Then hang in there and be patient - SRL and FLX both in talks with prospective buyers of coal assets at present. The action is just starting...

All coal stocks are very high risk with the problem China and Indonesia could start dumping coal at some stage.
On the other hand, Macarthur have a much more solid setup now and have even allowed for having to sell PCI coal as thermal at some stage.
Probably the most solid coal stock at the moment with genuine prospects.

 

[noirua]

There we goes, Macarthur have announced a drop in profits in the first half soon after estimating. Advice, don't estimate, keep quiet.
Profits are now set in the range $75 - $125 million against an estimate of $150 - $160 million to Dec 31st. Worryingly, there will be no interim dividend. Is confidence at MCC evaporating?
Cutbacks now at Moorevale and Coppabella in QLD and shipments postponed.
Sales forecast of 3.9 million tonnes against a previous forecast of 5 million tonnes.