MCC - Macarthur Coal

[roland]

MCC just took off after a profit upgrade. First time buyer, I picked up at $15.63. Maybe just a day trade for me - we will see....

 

[roland]

mmmm, OK - I'm out at $16.00, 2.something % will do me just fine. Some of the comments from others here didn't inspire me too much.

 

[jayinoz]

Very volatile stock of late with all the potential takeover action. Yet huge upgrade to profits looks great, with 3 huge companies as main shareholders that require the coal. They blasted through getting huge amounts of coal shipped out in June08...I do not see this abating.

Huntley's will increase recommended share price substantially due to a huge June and huge demand by the main 3 stack holders. Their price recommendation was $17.98, they must be upgraded to over $22 in near future. Forget a takeover when they have unlimited demand for their coal- just get it out the ground asap & keep shipping away. Looking good to me. Will see but I look at MCC as a long term value stock, yet for some it can be good\bad day trades due to all the volatility recently.

 

[michael_selway]

MCC just took off after a profit upgrade. First time buyer, I picked up at $15.63. Maybe just a day trade for me - we will see....

Hm you sold out!?

Its quite uncanny as if you look at the numbers before annoucement, they predicted a relative "bad 2008" with only 21.1 EPS compared to 27.6 in 2007, mainly because of bottlenecks. but with a view to imrpove greatly in 2009 & 2010 (increased production)

However now since they have upgraded 2008 "suprisingly', then the 2009 & 2010 figures below are might be some what "understated" you think?

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2007 2008 2009 2010
EPS 27.6 21.1 192.5 331.7
DPS 18.0 16.0 92.0 165.0

http://business.smh.com.au/macarthur-ups-profit-target-20080710-3cx7.html

Macarthur ups profit target
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Charts Macarthur Coal share price
AdvertisementJuly 10, 2008 - 4:18PM

Macarthur Coal shares surged more than 7% today after the company increased its annual profit guidance by as much as $23 million after a rise in expected sales.

The Queensland-based coal miner has forecast a profit of between $80 million to $90 million for the 2008 financial year, less than two months after providing guidance of $67 million to $75 million.

Macarthur, the supplier of more than a third of the world's pulverised coal, said the revised forecast follows increased coal sales and shipments in June, due to a reduction in the vessel queue at Dalrymple Bay Coal Terminal.

"This is particularly pleasing considering operations at Coppabella continue to suffer residual effects from flooding in the Bowen basin earlier in the year,'' acting chief executive Peter Kane said.

Macarthur shares gained $1.80, or 11.8%, to close at $17.10.

Macarthur has been the focus of corporate action over recent months, with steelmakers ArcelorMittal, the world's biggest, and Korea's Posco acquiring significant positions in the company.

Steelmakers are buying into coal and iron ore companies to secure supply as commodity prices climb higher, underpinned by the industrialisation of China and other developing nations.

Corporate interest was sparked after former Macarthur chief executive Ken Talbot started selling down his major stake in the company he founded.

Macarthur's largest customer ArcelorMittal is now the company's biggest single shareholder with a 19.9% stake.

Chinese group CITIC has a 17.7% interest, while Posco - another Macarthur customer - has a 10% stake.

ArcelorMittal and Posco purchased their stakes in Macarthur at $20 per share.

Mr Talbot's holding in Macarthur now sits at 4.76%.

Macarthur supplies more than a third of the world's pulverised coal from its two operations, Coppabella and Moorvale, which are in QLD's Bowen Basin.

AAP

thx

MS

 

[noirua]

Hi m_s, This does not look like a dead cat bounce, more certain persons jumping back in again. The forecast for MCC profits is really lousy compared with expectations for the companies expansion only a few years ago. Profits should be in the order of $160 million with at least $400 million in 2009 - not impressed.

 

[roland]

Hm you sold out!?


MS

in hindsight, I should have hung around for the entire run to $17.00 - MCC had a very good day.

It was an opportunistic day trade chance, and since I hadn't studied the company in any depth, I was happy enough to bail at my target.

 

[roland]

Well after buying in $15.63 and selling at $16.00 I got back in at $15.00 only have the SP fall on me

I am obviously sensitive to the fact that resources have currently soured a little, but MCC seems to be hammered down a little harder than other peer stocks.

I am wondering how the oil prices affect coal - does the cheaper oil shift interest away from coal? Where can I see up to date coal prices?

 

[michael_selway]

Well after buying in $15.63 and selling at $16.00 I got back in at $15.00 only have the SP fall on me

I am obviously sensitive to the fact that resources have currently soured a little, but MCC seems to be hammered down a little harder than other peer stocks.

I am wondering how the oil prices affect coal - does the cheaper oil shift interest away from coal? Where can I see up to date coal prices?

Hi coal prices updated weekly on the site below

http://www.globalcoal.com/

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2007 2008 2009 2010
EPS 27.6 27.8 191.8 317.6
DPS 18.0 16.1 95.0 167.1

I woudl say oil and gold are correlated in some ways in terms of same sector and sentiment wise but not overly

Also MCC's numbers are too good to give up for now anyway

Date: 24/7/2008
Author: Alexandra Cain
Source: The Australian Financial Review --- Page: 4
Fully one eighth of the best-performing companies in the Small Ordinaries Indexin Australia are mining-related in mid-2008. This demonstrates that resourcesfirms are thriving in the current market, while many other segments of smallcapitalization stocks are faring less well. The highest-ranked non-miners areinsurance group Tower Australia, and Singapore Telecommunications. The overallleader in the index is Macarthur Coal, whose sales have risen from $A7.50 at thebeginning of the year to $A14.35 on 23 July. The worst performers are AllcoFinance Group and its Rubicon property trust offshoots

thx

MS

 

[roland]

Nice couple of days for MCC. The wild SP swings through the day have settled down - sort of not as much fun.

In any case, in at $15.00 out at $16.18 - held for 7 days ... I'm pretty happy with that

 

[roland]

Well, back in at $15.00. Starting to feel like a yo-yo. Most resources were weaker today, but MCC fell a little more heavily than others. MCC seems to have quite good end of day rally's - maybe it's the close out of the day shorts ????

 

[roland]

nice day for MCC - up 8.23% or just over $1.00 to $14.20

sold off my holding that I collected at $13.00, still have a parcel at $14.00 and one at $15.00

the announcement today was a fizzer - thought that finalising the force maejure and getting on with shipping from the flood affected mines would have given us a little run. unless of course the players knew this already hence today's rise.

 

[noirua]

Interesting the coal sector now, as the push and pulls of demand and recession act together. MCC is one of Australia's growth stories, until a few years ago, when all the problems at the mines occurred. A complicated puzzle now as the company becomes bid proof and people, at the same time wonder, if, one of the major holders will sell up or not?
MCC, like Gloucester Coal, are looking for the outcome of the bid situation at Felix Resources. If the big players come in and bid, and the price rises rapidly, then GCL and MCC could look cheap.

 

[jayinoz]

Mmmmm nice raise of 5% 10 min b4 the announcement to ASX today. It good to hear the 2 mines mentioned will start being more productive shortly.

In the last month I have notified ASX of at least 20 occasions when prices rise b4 ASX announcements. Illegal trades- 100% sure. Will ASX do a thing- of course not.

If anyone knows of a subscription service that seems to know announcements b4 ASX- I would pay for the info. Oh boy... being a legal trader can be hard in Australia.

Anyway I am hoping from an 'Investor' point of view, not trader. That we are going through a Coal commodity Super Cycle. We have weathered the drop in the last 6 weeks, time for a rally- let us hope. I bought at a premium price when Talbot cashed out @ $20. So not my best move, yet after I analysed the company I felt I will hold for the long term and have a very low stop lose. Otherwise I would have been out at $13.50 stop loss to preserve money. It a HOLD for me and awaiting the resources Super Cycle over the next couple of years- hopefully.

Very doubtful i will see over $20 again this year. Yet it a good company with good management and great resources. Great demand and let us hope the demand continues, grows and our company can get the most out of every single mine.

 

[roland]

Well, 2nd highest profit since listing and MCC gets punished ????

MACARTHUR COAL ANNOUNCES PRELIMINARY NPAT OF $72.7 MILLION
ASX Announcement

Macarthur Coal (ASX: MCC) today announced a preliminary Net Profit After Tax (NPAT) of $72.7 million for the twelve months ended 30 June 2008. This is an increase of 9.3% on last year’s result and is primarily due to higher coal prices and the net gain on sale of a 19.61% interest in Monto Coal 2 Pty Ltd.

The preliminary final results for the 2008 financial year are based on financial
information which is in the process of being audited and includes:
2008 2007 % Var
Sales revenue $M 400.2 362.8 10.3
EBITDA $M 136.2 98.1 38.8
EBIT $M 117.7 81.9 43.7
NPAT $M 72.7 66.5 9.3
Diluted earnings per share Cents 36.6 35.5 3.1

A final dividend of fourteen cents per share fully franked was declared which takes the total dividend for the year to 17 cents per share fully franked.


Seems like any announcement, good or bad is deemed to have fallen short in the minds of some.

Anyway, 10% gives me a chance to add.

 

[michael_selway]

Well, 2nd highest profit since listing and MCC gets punished ????

MACARTHUR COAL ANNOUNCES PRELIMINARY NPAT OF $72.7 MILLION
ASX Announcement

Macarthur Coal (ASX: MCC) today announced a preliminary Net Profit After Tax (NPAT) of $72.7 million for the twelve months ended 30 June 2008. This is an increase of 9.3% on last year’s result and is primarily due to higher coal prices and the net gain on sale of a 19.61% interest in Monto Coal 2 Pty Ltd.

The preliminary final results for the 2008 financial year are based on financial
information which is in the process of being audited and includes:
2008 2007 % Var
Sales revenue $M 400.2 362.8 10.3
EBITDA $M 136.2 98.1 38.8
EBIT $M 117.7 81.9 43.7
NPAT $M 72.7 66.5 9.3
Diluted earnings per share Cents 36.6 35.5 3.1

A final dividend of fourteen cents per share fully franked was declared which takes the total dividend for the year to 17 cents per share fully franked.


Seems like any announcement, good or bad is deemed to have fallen short in the minds of some.

Anyway, 10% gives me a chance to add.

Hm it woudl have been good if it was the highest profit figure ever...

Anyway yeah still looks good imo

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2007 2008 2009 2010
EPS 27.6 28.6 189.9 328.7
DPS 18.0 20.0 95.0 174.7

Date: 18/8/2008
Author: Mark Ludlow
Source: The Australian Financial Review --- Page: 3
Macarthur Coal CEO, Nicole Hollows, claims that nuclear power will be in use inAustralia within 10 years. Hollows says it is inevitable that nuclear energywill become a complementary energy source to coal-fired power. According toHollows, both nuclear and coal-fired power will be needed to meet global demandfor energy. There is speculation that nuclear energy may be placed back on thenational political agenda after 2010, due to "political necessity".Research commissioned by the Australian Government and carried out by formerTelstra CEO, Ziggy Switkowski, found that there is potential for nuclear energyto be viable in Australia within 10 years. However, the research also found thatit may be difficult for nuclear energy to compete against cheaper energy sources

thx

MS

 

[roland]

Is there a possibility the 10% drop today was because of this:

There was a late accounting adjustment to the consolidated NPAT in relation to the capital gain on the partial sale of Monto Coal 2 Pty Ltd. This late adjustment resulted in the NPAT for the year falling below the profit guidance of $80 million to $90 million. The late adjustment has no impact on either present or future profit from operations, or cashflows.


$72.7 million from an expected $80 - $90 million ... I suppose that is around 10%

 

[michael_selway]

Is there a possibility the 10% drop today was because of this:

There was a late accounting adjustment to the consolidated NPAT in relation to the capital gain on the partial sale of Monto Coal 2 Pty Ltd. This late adjustment resulted in the NPAT for the year falling below the profit guidance of $80 million to $90 million. The late adjustment has no impact on either present or future profit from operations, or cashflows.


$72.7 million from an expected $80 - $90 million ... I suppose that is around 10%

Yeah looks like it

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2008 2009 2010 2011
EPS 28.0 177.7 315.6 339.5
DPS 17.0 88.0 165.5 171.4

thx

MS

 

[noirua]

Quite a fall for MCC from the $20 level only, what seems, a few months ago. After following the stock for ages I bought for the first time. It seemed as if someone bit my hand off when my bid went in.

 

[roland]

Quite a fall for MCC from the $20 level only, what seems, a few months ago. After following the stock for ages I bought for the first time. It seemed as if someone bit my hand off when my bid went in.

She"ll be right mate. A little down myself, but aint sweatin'. Be prepared for some anxious swings - it gaps up pretty heavily which makes for some cool jumps - makes up for the slow days when the lack of volume makes you feel like your ADSL modem has dropped off the planet.

 

[noirua]

She"ll be right mate. A little down myself, but aint sweatin'. Be prepared for some anxious swings - it gaps up pretty heavily which makes for some cool jumps - makes up for the slow days when the lack of volume makes you feel like your ADSL modem has dropped off the planet.

Hong Kong's Citic Resources are reported on Bloomberg to have raised their stake in Macarthur Coal to 20%.