Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Crude Oil price

OIL at lows for year . $68 shaping up as a key level here View attachment 183692
I'm liking the slide in oil prices very much. Starting to fill as many containers and the overhead tank as possible with harvest not too far away. Of course, the outlay is quite large, but the savings are there with the GST and off-road component.
 
I've been accumulating OOO as the POO is falling. WTI down to $65/bbl and looks like it may bounce here. I doubt the bounce will go very far as the world's economies slow.
how will you know ?

Russia is now selling oil for gold ( or buying gold with oil , same thing ) not to mention selling in yuan and rupees and goodness knows what for 'the grey fleet .

if they can't ( or won't ) stop oil from being smuggled out of Northern Iraq and Libya

who knows what is being produced and what it is traded in

the Saudis claim to now accept yuan , Iran is selling oil somewhere despite extensive sanctions

AND the US strategic reserves are playing their own manipulation game (low prices leading up to the election plus refill ( at least partly ) the depleted reserves

at least silver is only rigged by comparative amateurs like JP Morgan

i have a target price for extra BPT if it gets there i will add , if it doesn't i already hold some
 
bought from 76.5 cents down to 40 cents last time

sure it could get rough , but that is the oil game .. they start wars and regime change over it not to mention price manipulation

but as long as you KNOW it is rigged , you know how to calculate the risks
 
Middle East tensions and continuing escalations with Iran now joining the fray will see US/Israel look at striking back.
The below map shows Iran's oil infrastructure. It's massive and there's lots of targets.
However, Iran hapens to be able to control oil/gas tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz, if vessels haven't already been targeted deeper into the Persian Gulf.
This is a huge dilemma as any escalation leading to Iran effectively closing the Strait of Hormuz will massively spike oil prices and depress global economies. The irony of the dilemma is that America will be the big winner as they are not dependent on ME oil/gas and their FF sector will profit handsomely.
I am not sure if China will be a big loser as it already gets much of its oil from Russia and Iran, but the effects of high oil prices will significantly dampen China's global trade.

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WTI back down below $70/bbl. I'm reversing the mini-van into position for the initial load (via OOO.asx).

oil1.PNG Missed the day trade on XLE yesterday, damn it.
 
The Saudi cousins have commenced unwinding output cuts. From the FT. What Trump wants, Trump gets.


Opec+ said it would proceed with a plan to increase oil production from April, in an unexpected move by the cartel that sent crude prices tumbling.

Saudi Arabia and seven other members of the Opec+ group had previously delayed a plan to unwind long-standing output cuts several times and traders had widely expected it to be postponed again.

But Opec+ said on Monday it had agreed to proceed with the “gradual and flexible return” of 2.2mn barrels a day of oil production over the next 18 months.

The price of Brent crude dropped 1 per cent on Tuesday to a five-month low of $70.60 a barrel, extending Monday’s 2 per cent slide, as traders responded to the prospect of increased supply.

Concerns about the potential impact of US tariffs on economic activity were already weighing on crude prices, which are down more than 10 per cent from a high this year of $82 a barrel in January.

US President Donald Trump confirmed on Monday the US would impose 25 per cent tariffs on goods imported from Canada and Mexico from midnight local time on Tuesday.

“Two things are hitting the market at the same time, Trump’s tariffs and the Opec+ restart of halted production,” said Kevin Book, co-founder of ClearView Energy Partners, a research firm. “It is no surprise that this creates a sell signal to traders.”

Trump called on Opec+ to push down oil prices during a speech in January to executives at Davos.



The oil price continues to fall.




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gg
 
This should be good for stocks, except oilers.

gg
that depends on if you want to buy some small oilers , i have two on my target list ( one to add extras , one as a new position )

if the oil is too cheap few ( except Russia ) can produce at a profit ( Russia should thank those that evicted it from SWIFT LOL , maybe give them a medal )

sure there is still plenty of untapped oil BUT you have to extract it before using it ( and that COSTS and takes time )
 
Like just about everything else, the price of oil is driven by supply and demand, witness OPEC fooling around with the supply limits to push the price of oil up.
India will overtake China in its role as driver of growth, as its still massive and increasing population move into the consumer space at pace.
Oil is one of the many energy drivers fro Inia, and because of its limited home grown fossil fuel supplies, is very much dependant on importing fuel and other hydrocarbons.
India is more than happy to deal with Russia in taking cheap sanction busting oil, and trump is not going to bully India into stopping.
He is going to have to come to some arrangement with India, and explains why his usual bombastic "we are the greatest" approach has not made an appearance in the current trade negotiations with India.
From Oil Price .com

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Mick
 
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