Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Crude Oil price

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rederob said:
Posted only to show the continuing uptrend, and that the average price of WTI in the past month is firmly over $110/bbl:
View attachment 142668

This looks like translating into another good day tomorrow for the likes of WDS, STO and BPT. In fact STO is just a shade of its 2020 pre-pandemic peak of $9.07.
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Thanks @rederob, silly me sold the WDS that I got from BHP to clear the decks and just an hour later some hotshots in a London trading house must have woken up, had a few snorts of coke, and read their emails from yesterday from some Arabs or Boris-Russians in the Lords or hidden from sanctions in Londongrad to buy WDS.

I believe I missed the bus there, maybe not, lotsa different opinions on oilprice.com as to what ole MBS and Putin are up to with supply and pricing.

The Europeans are as all over the place now with Oil and Gas as they were with the Euro and the Pensions of Italians and Greeks who were quite rightly retiring at 42 and living off the rest of them.

Oil moves during all wars no matter what sanctions are put in place, like cigarettes, I've seen it.

gg
 
Garpal Gumnut said:
Thanks @rederob, silly me sold the WDS that I got from BHP to clear the decks and just an hour later some hotshots in a London trading house must have woken up, had a few snorts of coke, and read their emails from yesterday from some Arabs or Boris-Russians in the Lords or hidden from sanctions in Londongrad to buy WDS.

I believe I missed the bus there, maybe not, lotsa different opinions on oilprice.com as to what ole MBS and Putin are up to with supply and pricing.

The Europeans are as all over the place now with Oil and Gas as they were with the Euro and the Pensions of Italians and Greeks who were quite rightly retiring at 42 and living off the rest of them.

Oil moves during all wars no matter what sanctions are put in place, like cigarettes, I've seen it.

gg
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Up another $2/bbl overnight and just $25 off all time record high:
1654723675845.png
Although high prices cause demand destruction, the real story is supply and distribution.
As Sir Garpal notes, wars are good for oi prices. And in this case, where one of the top oil producers is not only sanctioned, but has lost its principal oil and gas service contractors, there can only be a consequential decline in output.
Our fracking American friends are reluctant to reinvest heavily in their oil patches despite these high prices, possibly because they know that once the Ukrainian war is settled the POO will be flushed down the dunny, along with their potential to profits.

The bottom line that holds is that present global circumstances hold minimal downside risk for oil and gas prices.
 
Despite the stock market tumbling, we can't say the same has happened with the POO:
1655195810462.png
Shaded above is the past 4 month's trend, which remains firmly positive.
Not that I have charted it but, for interest's sake, natural gas prices are presently $5.30 higher than the same time last year.
Accordingly, today's ASX stumble will not affect the profit profile of the likes of STO, WDS and BPT, to name several of our oilers.
 
Traded through a $9/bbl price range in past few days, and short term looks weak.
Compare that with where WTI crude has traded from 1 January this year:
1655330445270.png

The theme since April has been a series of higher lows, and highs.
Again, nothing on the horizon is suggesting this trend will be broken in coming months.
Moreover, the plus-8% inflation rate will keep raising the breakeven cost for US fracking companies, so in the event WTI collapses some may end up holding stranded assets. That's not an investment environment bankers are likely to prop up having been badly burnt already.
 
The International Energy Agency has published their Oil Market Report-September 2023, this week.

https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-september-2023

“World oil demand remains on track to grow by 2.2 mb/d in 2023 to 101.8 mb/d, led by resurgent Chinese consumption, jet fuel and petrochemical feedstocks."

The extension of output cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia through year-end will lock in a substantial market deficit through 4Q23.

Refinery margins hit an eight-month high in August as refiners struggled to keep up with oil demand growth, especially for middle distillates. Product cracks and margins reached near-record levels due to unplanned outages, feedstock quality issues, supply chain bottlenecks and low stocks.

Global observed oil inventories plummeted by 76.3 mb to a 13-month low in August, led by a hefty decline in oil on water.”
 
Dona Ferentes said:
The International Energy Agency has published their Oil Market Report-September 2023, this week.

https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-september-2023

“World oil demand remains on track to grow by 2.2 mb/d in 2023 to 101.8 mb/d, led by resurgent Chinese consumption, jet fuel and petrochemical feedstocks."

The extension of output cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia through year-end will lock in a substantial market deficit through 4Q23.

Refinery margins hit an eight-month high in August as refiners struggled to keep up with oil demand growth, especially for middle distillates. Product cracks and margins reached near-record levels due to unplanned outages, feedstock quality issues, supply chain bottlenecks and low stocks.

Global observed oil inventories plummeted by 76.3 mb to a 13-month low in August, led by a hefty decline in oil on water.”
Click to expand...
Good news for asx juniors like EEG & SHE in Oil/Gas sector (amongst bigger players such as BPT, STO, WDS etc.)
 
The war declaration by Israel will most likely send the cost of oil up everywhere.
Israel will target Hezbolla and hamas enclaves, but given they blame Iran for supplying weapons and logistics, you can bet there will be iranian targets, possibly Iranian Nuclear facilities, but certainly oil infrastructure.
The nervousness alone will bid up oil prices, and most probably PM's as well.

mick
 
farmerge said:
I don;t know what's going on with bowser fuel pricing. Over the past 4 days it has been $1.64 and up to $1.97 for unleaded. Today one servo I passed was at $1.625 for Unleaded. diesel remains pretty static at around $1.78ish
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the last trip between Brisbane and the farm the browser price differences were reversed , fuel is normally cheaper at the truck stops before crossing Cunningham's Gap ( going towards Brisbane )

it can't been rural lease increases ( compared to Brisbane sites ) and unlikely to be the impact of EVs of urban fuel demand
 

OPEC+ adapts amidst shifting oil markets​

By Glenn Dyer |

Reality drifted through global oil markets last week after OPEC+ bowed to reality and announced it would start easing its production caps, while keeping others in place until next year. It was an admission that even with control over 30% of the global oil market — around 40% if Russia is assumed to be a de facto member of the group — OPEC+ can’t guarantee long-term price growth.

OPEC+ stated it will begin phasing out 2.2 million barrels per day in production cuts starting in October. However, on Friday, there was talk that those cuts could be amended or pushed back if prices weaken.
Stability was deemed the best option, as even if prices bounce higher and lower, movement within a narrow band isn’t going to help revenue-needy countries like Saudi Arabia, Iraq, UAE (and Iran), and especially war-torn Russia.

OPEC+ likely anticipated that global prices would soften after the latest cap decision was made public. By Friday, the prices of US West Texas Intermediate-style crude and its global benchmark, Brent, were down around 2.3% each. If sustained for the next few months, this decrease will ease inflationary pressures in many economies.

The big disruptor has been the consistently high volume of US production at 13-13.1 million barrels a day, bolstered by new sources like more than half a million barrels a day from the emerging fields offshore Guyana.

Meanwhile, the efficiency of US shale producers continues to improve, as confirmed by the latest rig usage numbers from Baker Hughes. The number of oil rigs in the US slipped by four for the week ending last Friday (07 June), from 496 the week earlier to 492. This is eight fewer than the 500 in use at the end of 2023 (and the most recent peak of 511 in January). The tally for gas rigs fell by two to 98, while miscellaneous rigs remained unchanged at four.

A year earlier, the US had 556 oil rigs, 135 gas rigs, and four miscellaneous rigs in operation. Overall, 594 rigs were operating in the US last week, down from 695 a year earlier.
 
mullokintyre said:
Oil just keeps on slipping.
The next point to watch for is the 12 month low of 68.50 back in November last year.
Will add some relief to those countries/industries that use a lot of FF energy.
Mick
View attachment 182896
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With the price of fuel dropping as it is at present it makes it very worthwhile to fill up all the fuel containers to garner this benefit, as harvest is only a few weeks away.
Of course there is also the benefit of the diesel rebate and GST for on road (trucks) and off road (tractors and the like) which helps to greatly reduce that buy in price.
 

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