Crude Oil price

[CanOz]

Only half are wrong

 

[samso]

Any of you guys trade the ASX 200?

 

[luutzu]

Looks like oil is going to have a good week or year ahead.

OPEC and allies struggle to pump more oil as Iran supply falls
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...e-oil-as-iran-supply-falls-idUSKCN1M20FJ?il=0

I think China is also putting a 10% tariff on US LNG import.

 

[CanOz]

Keep an eye on the oil price...decent probability for a move higher...

 

[samso]

Didnt I start this conversatiopn about the oil preice going up ????

 

[Ann]

Keep an eye on the oil price...decent probability for a move higher...

G'day CanOz, you may be right in the very short term. The twelve year chart which I started to draw in 2013 is showing me the POO is about to fall and I believe quite profoundly within a fairly short time span. It is currently travelling in and moving toward the top of a bearish rising wedge as well as about to hit the long term overhead falling resistance line coming from 2008. I will put up a chart on the main Oil price discussion thread tomorrow.

 

[CanOz]

Hope you're right Ann, these bowser prices are annoying!

 

[Smurf1976]

the POO is about to fall and I believe quite profoundly within a fairly short time span.

A clarification of what you mean by profound?

You mean the price drops from ~$80 down to something like $20?

Or you mean it drops 10% to the low $70’s?

Just wanting to clarify since my interpretation of the word “profound” is to mean an outright crash not just a few %.

 

[Ann]

Hope you're right Ann, these bowser prices are annoying!

Sure are CanOz! I have now stopped filling my car with a full tank, my last purchase of fuel was only $20 worth as I reckon it is going to fall, subject to where the Aussie dollar goes of course. (Must look at it, haven't done so for a while.)

A clarification of what you mean by profound?

You mean the price drops from ~$80 down to something like $20?

Or you mean it drops 10% to the low $70’s?

Just wanting to clarify since my interpretation of the word “profound” is to mean an outright crash not just a few %.

G'day Smurf, I would be surprised if it made it to $80 but it is possible, just. Yes I think it is heading over time to the long term support line which will likely be $20 to $22 and that will then be a triple bounce support line if it holds, which I think it will.

I have put up a chart and comment over in the 'Oil Price Discussion and Analysis thread.

Oil price discussion and analysis

 

[Student of Gann]

Crude Oil

 

[Joules MM1]

MCX:CRUDEOIL1! Chart Image by traderjazzhands

www.tradingview.com

we fell out of the channel, we sold out of the channel
in the above chart there is a channel snapped
an inverted ratio met and price rotated on concisely
4200-4400 appears the nearest zone for buyers to get bargains
..we clearly have an impulsive sell exiting the channel

 

[Joules MM1]

am short brent front month 72.40's, price attempted to climb back in the channel, we have several instruments pointing to
liquidity contraction
..am mindful that end of month may play a role but the impulsive sell structure says we have more to go

 

[Joules MM1]

brent and xauusd going for dip

get em down, pig

 

[Joules MM1]

rolling over finally !

 

[rederob]

Almost six months and many dollars increase since last posting here, albeit below is the WTI crude price and not Brent (a correlated chart of the two is attached at the bottom of this post):

As can be seen above WTI crude's price is again over its 2011 peak and climbed strongly this past week.

Although we have had high WTI crude prices for months, the American rig count has not shown a corresponding stellar increase in numbers, in fact falling marginally in the last week:

We can clearly see from the above that we are over 100 rigs below the 2020 rig count collapse point, and over 300 below the late 2018 peak. From the chart below we can surmise a rough rule of thumb that it takes around 12 months for production to peak from rig count increases:

Bottom line is that the US is some 1500 barrels per day off its peak some years back and not recovering all that fast.

 

[rederob]

Past 2 months price action for WTI crude suggests more upside:


EU's negotiations with member countries on Russian oil supply have not been resolved. However, if ship-based oil movements are sanctioned then there goes two thirds of its production.
As noted in another thread, oil field service companies have left Russia to their own devices, so the certainty we are left with is that their oil production is going to decline.
Elsewhere OPEC+ members are set to meet again - Wednesday - and the smart money is they will do very little:

"Despite continued requests from consumer states to add more oil, Opec-plus is expected to keep production policy unchanged this week, according to delegates, meaning the group will likely agree to a further easing of the cuts by 430,000 b/d.​

 

[rederob]

Unfortunately a poster has banned me posting to any of his threads, so my "oil price discussions" will be here for the time being.
Below is the past month's price action for WTI crude (via CFDs) - 2-hourly - and as you can see the uptrend is solid, although a tad overstretched:


At the end of this post I have attached a chart showing the correlation with Brent crude, which today has Brent less than a dollar higher :


Interestingly, we see no additional rigs added to the US count for the week, but 17 were added to Canadian oil patches with 3 gas rigs withdrawn:

It's hard to contemplate why, with sustained high oil prices, American drillers are not clamouring back for a quick million bucks or more.
Off topic, gas prices are another thing, and so is refining capacity. When these jigsaw pieces are put together, along with America's present "driving season," Russia's declining oil output, and Europe's transition away from Russian supply chains, then prices are destined to go higher still.
Although OPEC+ did agree yesterday to add about 680k bpd, the market digested the news and finally worked out it was inadequate:

 

[waterbottle]

It's hard to contemplate why, with sustained high oil prices, American drillers are not clamouring back for a quick million bucks or more.

It's possible we don't have the complete picture and that they don't see it as a sustainable price to justify restarting a rig?

 

[rederob]

It's possible we don't have the complete picture and that they don't see it as a sustainable price to justify restarting a rig?

This article covers that point.
Depending which analyst to go with, US production reaches pre-pandemic levels some time between 2023 and 2024:

 

[rederob]

Posted only to show the continuing uptrend, and that the average price of WTI in the past month is firmly over $110/bbl:


This looks like translating into another good day tomorrow for the likes of WDS, STO and BPT. In fact STO is just a shade of its 2020 pre-pandemic peak of $9.07.