May 2024 DDD

[ducati916]

Mr fff:

Both Trickery and Chicanery are at Play​

Dr. Fly Thu May 30, 2024 11:16am EST Leave a comment


Let’s review.

The entire SAAS sector has been upended and destroyed. It no longer exists. Shares of $CRM, a Dow 30 component, is down 20% for the ******* session. TWNETY ******* PERCENT. Following her down the sewer pipe are $NOW, $BRZE, $CFLT, $OKTA, $CRWD, $NET, $MNDY and many many others. Total ******* bloodbath.

The semis are weak too, with weakness in $NVDA, $TSM, $QCOM, $AMAT, $MU.

And everything else is up.

Any ******* questions?

Breadth is at an annoying 63% and all areas of the market are strong, because why not? Sure, the growth names and the BIG CAPPED tech are lower; you know, all the stuff people own. But all of the other ****, the stuff no one owns, like $WHR, that **** is up. But it’s not all soured grapes. Shares of $HOOD are flying and $BTC is doing ok. If you really look at the tape you will see that it’s laughing at you. We keep flip flopping out from one stock to the next and the random number generator (algos) keeps us dancing and working real hard for those dollars.

DANCE YOU SON OF A BITCH, DANCE!

At any rate, I think I cracked the matrix and figured it out, and have positioned as such. I will not tell you what I am doing, not out of greed or because I want you to join my service, but out of fear you will ******* jinx me. Don’t even think about it.
I opened the session down 50bps, sunk fast to down 100bps, recovered to down 35bps, and now I am right back to where I ******* started down 58bps. If I have to endure any more of this ****, I am going to lose my mind.

126% leveraged long, no hedges at the moment.



Software lagging. Another (unusual) divergence.



This is a dangerous one. Also this used to be a really reliable indicator of major market turns. No longer.



I guess his pump & dump made him enough money to go back into hibernation.

Closing with Mr fff:



Today I have been a (small) buyer. I nibbled at: UNP, MRK and XLE. UNP in particular is a member of the DOW Transports and has been selling off for a while.

So MRK is hedged with XLV. I just like energy, so outright bullish. Energy is contra stocks anyway.




I like oil. It's very choppy.



So CRM and software are early victims of AI?



So I just see this picking up momentum into June.

There are loads of bulls out there. All ready to BTD. I'm far from convinced. There is no signal from $MOVE yet. But one could be imminent. On the other thread $SKEW is up. Usually not a great sign. Certainly many of my Options positions have had really bizarre marks, a hallmark of SKEW.

jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

Pullback or start of a cyclical downtrend?

The green in individual stocks: short covering or BTD?

Looking more like the start of something more serious to me.





jog on
duc

 

[peter2]

The price of oil seems to be in a sweet spot, not too high to stoke inflation and not too low for the producers. It might be a while before oil rallies significantly once more.

I agree that the many divergences we see in the market are scary in that they normally portend a dip but NDQ is holding up strongly. I'd be decreasing my market exposure normally in light of this warning but I'm concentrated in commodity and data-centre positions which are also holding up well.

Will not buying any dip just now. Waiting for the rally instead.

re: FFF, poor boy, hasn't realised that he's been more inflexible during May than his normal flip-flop style. Won't mention to him though.

 

[ducati916]

The price of oil seems to be in a sweet spot, not too high to stoke inflation and not too low for the producers. It might be a while before oil rallies significantly once more.

I agree that the many divergences we see in the market are scary in that they normally portend a dip but NDQ is holding up strongly. I'd be decreasing my market exposure normally in light of this warning but I'm concentrated in commodity and data-centre positions which are also holding up well.

Will not buying any dip just now. Waiting for the rally instead.

re: FFF, poor boy, hasn't realised that he's been more inflexible during May than his normal flip-flop style. Won't mention to him though.

I think oil has bottomed:



Could it go sideways? Sure. But essentially it already has.

Rather I think oil is moving higher.

I don't trade oil directly, I trade XLE as a proxy. I added some shares this morning.



I think the correction is pretty much over.

Higher oil, as you allude, will drive CPI higher.

The whisper now is, rather than rate cuts, we may see rate hikes. The Fed and Treasury seem to be fighting one another. A rate hike will see a higher USD and UST market disfunction.

Paradoxically, a rate hike will drive inflation even higher and faster as interest payments will also accelerate crowding out the UST market necessitating another bail-out.

jog on
duc

 

[divs4ever]

The price of oil seems to be in a sweet spot, not too high to stoke inflation and not too low for the producers. It might be a while before oil rallies significantly once more.

I agree that the many divergences we see in the market are scary in that they normally portend a dip but NDQ is holding up strongly. I'd be decreasing my market exposure normally in light of this warning but I'm concentrated in commodity and data-centre positions which are also holding up well.

Will not buying any dip just now. Waiting for the rally instead.

re: FFF, poor boy, hasn't realised that he's been more inflexible during May than his normal flip-flop style. Won't mention to him though.

just one ( really big ) storm away in the Gulf of Mexico ( and it is that season as well )

i guess we will see what is really left in the ( US ) strategic reserve soon

 

[Chipp]

I think oil has bottomed:

View attachment 177910

Could it go sideways? Sure. But essentially it already has.

Rather I think oil is moving higher.

I don't trade oil directly, I trade XLE as a proxy. I added some shares this morning.

View attachment 177913

I think the correction is pretty much over.

Higher oil, as you allude, will drive CPI higher.

The whisper now is, rather than rate cuts, we may see rate hikes. The Fed and Treasury seem to be fighting one another. A rate hike will see a higher USD and UST market disfunction.

Paradoxically, a rate hike will drive inflation even higher and faster as interest payments will also accelerate crowding out the UST market necessitating another bail-out.

jog on
duc

I believe there is an Opec Meeting this weekend , always a potential pivotal moment in the pricing of crude

https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/311.htm

Later this evening will annote an oil chart with previous Opec dates to see if a pattern exist

Edit , started marking a chart and there are so many Opec meets since Pandemic low that no real pattern exists around meets that effect oil price . The major changes in oil production likely have the effects i seek and i will research that at a later date and post it in an Oil thread once i do

 

[anca]

View attachment 177882

Pullback or start of a cyclical downtrend?

The green in individual stocks: short covering or BTD?

Looking more like the start of something more serious to me.

jog on
duc

To me it looks like Profit taking on the Large caps and confidence in the Smalls.
And Yea I'm looking for the down trend.

 

[Chipp]

Volatility in oil low and at what appears bottom of range ATM , I also will buy dips in Crude with conviction moving forwards . SPR near enough to multi decade lows and with Biden about to release a bit more to buy some votes into election i see dowside as very limited and good buying opportunity . A floor will be put into crude pricing at a level where US govt will start refilling SPR imo . Anything near 70 has been excellent buying since Biden drained the SPR and i can see zero reason why that changes .

 

[ducati916]

Oil News:

Friday, May 31st 2024

The Memorial Day holidays, which usually trigger a bump in gasoline consumption, failed to drive a significant increase in fuel demand, adding downward pressure to oil prices. Overshadowing higher refinery runs in the U.S., concerns over this year’s consumption patterns loom large over the summer months. Heading into the weekend, all eyes will be on OPEC+ as it meets in Vienna, with Brent futures headed for another weekly loss at $81 per barrel, a prospect that the likes of Saudi Arabia or Russia are unlikely to enjoy.

ConocoPhillips Goes for Marathon Oil Powergrab. US shale driller ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) agreed to buy peer upstream firm Marathon Oil (NYSE:MRO) in a deal valued at $22.5 billion including $5.4 billion of debt, expected to close in the fourth quarter of 2024.

Canada Starts Probe into Toxicity of Oil Sands. Upon a request from environmental group Ecojustice, the Canadian government has agreed to assess whether naphthenic acids found in oil sands tailing ponds across Alberta should be classed as toxic, potentially paving the way for much stricter regulation of bitumen mining.

Saudi Arabia to Sell 0.64% of Saudi Aramco. The largest oil-producing company in the world, Saudi Arabia’s Saudi Aramco (TADAWUL:2222), will be selling a 0.64% stake, equivalent to 1.545 billion shares of the company, with the price range expected to be between 26.7-29.0 riyals per share ($7-8/share).

Democrats Initiate OPEC Collusion Investigation. A group of 23 Democratic senators asked the US attorney general to investigate allegations of collusion between American oil companies and OPEC, on the back of the FTC’s insinuations about former Pioneer CEO Scott Sheffield.

BHP Gives Up on AngloAmerican. Ending this spring’s hottest M&A saga, mining giant BHP (NYSE:BHP) walked away from its $49 billion bid to take over mining peer AngloAmerican (LON:AAL), deciding to withhold a binding bid after its three previous bids were rejected.

Chinese Steel Controls Depress Iron Ore Prices. Following Beijing’s announcement that it plans to strengthen control over steel production and capacity to be compliant with its 1% emission reduction target for 2024, iron ore dropped to ¥870/mt ($120/mt), its lowest in two weeks.

US Grants BP Waiver for Venezuela Gas Project. UK-based oil major BP (NYSE:BP) as well as Trinidad and Tobago’s NGC have received a two-year waiver from US sanctions on Venezuela, helping to develop the Cocuina-Manakin gas fields with Venezuela’s PDVSA.

Libya’s Oil Minister Is Back to Business. Less than two months after Libya’s oil and gas minister Mohamed Aoun was suspended over unspecified violations, he has made a surprise return to his post in a blow to European majors ENI and Total that expected their licensing deals to be approved in his absence.

Glencore Mulls Coal Spin-Off Very Soon. Mining and trading giant Glencore (LON:GLEN) will start consulting with shareholders over its planned spin-off of coal assets, pending the closure of its purchase of 77% of Teck’s metallurgical coal business, despite weak internal support.

Iraq Calls on Kurdish Leaders to Restart Exports. Iraq’s oil ministry has called for an immediate meeting with Kurdish authorities and international oil companies operating in the Kurdistan region to unblock pipeline exports via the Mediterranean amidst a 15-month-long halt.

India Signs Term Deal for Russian Oil in Roubles. India’s largest private refiner Reliance signed a one-year deal with Russia’s Rosneft to buy at least 3 million barrels of oil, with Urals prices set at a $3 per barrel discount to Dubai, to be paid in Russian roubles instead of dollars.

Nigeria Eyes Higher Penetration for Its Natural Gas. Nigeria’s national oil company NNPC is planning to build a network of compressed natural gas (CNG) plants to expand access to alternative transportation fuels across the country as gasoline prices tripled year-on-year to 700 naira per liter.

Chevron Close to Signing Big Algeria Contract. US oil major Chevron (NYSE:CVX) is reportedly close to signing an upstream deal with Algeria’s Sonatrach, marking its entry into the North African country only several weeks after ExxonMobil did the same and eyeing its shale gas potential.




Which wraps up May.

I was again a buyer, nibbling at: XLF, AXP, MRK, XLI and PG.

I sold some CSTM (aluminium).

What I'm increasingly noticing is that the indices do one thing, mostly driven by the mega-caps and individual sectors and their stocks do something different.

jog on
duc

 

[qldfrog]

Oil News:

Friday, May 31st 2024

The Memorial Day holidays, which usually trigger a bump in gasoline consumption, failed to drive a significant increase in fuel demand, adding downward pressure to oil prices. Overshadowing higher refinery runs in the U.S., concerns over this year’s consumption patterns loom large over the summer months. Heading into the weekend, all eyes will be on OPEC+ as it meets in Vienna, with Brent futures headed for another weekly loss at $81 per barrel, a prospect that the likes of Saudi Arabia or Russia are unlikely to enjoy.

ConocoPhillips Goes for Marathon Oil Powergrab. US shale driller ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) agreed to buy peer upstream firm Marathon Oil (NYSE:MRO) in a deal valued at $22.5 billion including $5.4 billion of debt, expected to close in the fourth quarter of 2024.

Canada Starts Probe into Toxicity of Oil Sands. Upon a request from environmental group Ecojustice, the Canadian government has agreed to assess whether naphthenic acids found in oil sands tailing ponds across Alberta should be classed as toxic, potentially paving the way for much stricter regulation of bitumen mining.

Saudi Arabia to Sell 0.64% of Saudi Aramco. The largest oil-producing company in the world, Saudi Arabia’s Saudi Aramco (TADAWUL:2222), will be selling a 0.64% stake, equivalent to 1.545 billion shares of the company, with the price range expected to be between 26.7-29.0 riyals per share ($7-8/share).

Democrats Initiate OPEC Collusion Investigation. A group of 23 Democratic senators asked the US attorney general to investigate allegations of collusion between American oil companies and OPEC, on the back of the FTC’s insinuations about former Pioneer CEO Scott Sheffield.

BHP Gives Up on AngloAmerican. Ending this spring’s hottest M&A saga, mining giant BHP (NYSE:BHP) walked away from its $49 billion bid to take over mining peer AngloAmerican (LON:AAL), deciding to withhold a binding bid after its three previous bids were rejected.

Chinese Steel Controls Depress Iron Ore Prices. Following Beijing’s announcement that it plans to strengthen control over steel production and capacity to be compliant with its 1% emission reduction target for 2024, iron ore dropped to ¥870/mt ($120/mt), its lowest in two weeks.

US Grants BP Waiver for Venezuela Gas Project. UK-based oil major BP (NYSE:BP) as well as Trinidad and Tobago’s NGC have received a two-year waiver from US sanctions on Venezuela, helping to develop the Cocuina-Manakin gas fields with Venezuela’s PDVSA.

Libya’s Oil Minister Is Back to Business. Less than two months after Libya’s oil and gas minister Mohamed Aoun was suspended over unspecified violations, he has made a surprise return to his post in a blow to European majors ENI and Total that expected their licensing deals to be approved in his absence.

Glencore Mulls Coal Spin-Off Very Soon. Mining and trading giant Glencore (LON:GLEN) will start consulting with shareholders over its planned spin-off of coal assets, pending the closure of its purchase of 77% of Teck’s metallurgical coal business, despite weak internal support.

Iraq Calls on Kurdish Leaders to Restart Exports. Iraq’s oil ministry has called for an immediate meeting with Kurdish authorities and international oil companies operating in the Kurdistan region to unblock pipeline exports via the Mediterranean amidst a 15-month-long halt.

India Signs Term Deal for Russian Oil in Roubles. India’s largest private refiner Reliance signed a one-year deal with Russia’s Rosneft to buy at least 3 million barrels of oil, with Urals prices set at a $3 per barrel discount to Dubai, to be paid in Russian roubles instead of dollars.

Nigeria Eyes Higher Penetration for Its Natural Gas. Nigeria’s national oil company NNPC is planning to build a network of compressed natural gas (CNG) plants to expand access to alternative transportation fuels across the country as gasoline prices tripled year-on-year to 700 naira per liter.

Chevron Close to Signing Big Algeria Contract. US oil major Chevron (NYSE:CVX) is reportedly close to signing an upstream deal with Algeria’s Sonatrach, marking its entry into the North African country only several weeks after ExxonMobil did the same and eyeing its shale gas potential.


View attachment 177953View attachment 177952View attachment 177951View attachment 177950View attachment 177949View attachment 177948View attachment 177947View attachment 177945View attachment 177944View attachment 177942View attachment 177943View attachment 177941

Which wraps up May.

I was again a buyer, nibbling at: XLF, AXP, MRK, XLI and PG.

I sold some CSTM (aluminium).

What I'm increasingly noticing is that the indices do one thing, mostly driven by the mega-caps and individual sectors and their stocks do something different.

jog on
duc

India moving its gold from UK storage to own soil could also be an historic marker we might remember in coming years