Copper

[Sean K]

Everyone is saying this is a copper play but Anglo has much more than copper. Unless BHP's plans are to sell the diamonds and platinum. Maybe they have to due to jurisdictions.

Whatever the case, good for Dr Copper by the looks.



The metal’s resurgence has been fuelled by optimism about a recovery in global manufacturing and booming demand for clean energy technologies including wind turbines and electric vehicle batteries. That has coincided with a string of supply disruptions at major mines which has tightened the physical market.

That has prompted a growing chorus of analysts to upgrade their copper forecasts, with some tipping prices will rocket as high as $US15,000 a tonne over the coming years.

“BHP’s not making a $60 billion bid purely for copper if they don’t think the returns in copper will be as good, if not better, than iron ore for the next 10 years,” said Ben Cleary, portfolio manager of Tribeca’s Global Natural Resources fund.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Another solid week for copper​

By Glenn Dyer |

Another week of solid gains for copper, with prices rising to two-year highs on Friday. The BHP approach to buy Anglo American is a new positive for the metal. Prices reached $US10,000 a tonne on the London Metal Exchange. In New York, the Comex price touched $US4.61 a pound — the best in more than three years. Prices hit a record in Shanghai.

Analysts and traders said the rise was again backed by investment flows from funds and not from industry, where fears about a shortage of concentrates continues to worry metal users and transformers — especially in China. But BHP’s (ASX:BHP) suggested $A60 billion bid for Anglo American — rightly perceived as a copper play — is now helping boost interest in the metal.

Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange rose to $US9,971.50 and then eased back to $US9,865, while the most-traded June copper contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange advanced 1.7% to 80,680 yuan a tonne ($US11,135.80). Earlier in the session, LME copper climbed to as high as $US10,000 a tonne, its highest since April 2022, and SHFE copper hit a record high of 81,080 yuan.

Helping boost prices was news that Chile, the world’s biggest copper producing country, has revised downwards its outlook for production growth this year. Production is expected to reach 5.51 million tonnes, compared with the previous estimate of 5.63 million tonnes.

"Index funds, exchange-traded funds, etc, are attracting retail money into metals. Momentum-based buying is pulling them up; selling resistance remain low," said Sandeep Daga, a director at metals analysis company Metal Intelligence Centre. "Copper needs to keep creeping up to avoid backlash from momentum traders. (It) is filled with the spirit of excitement, which is taking it far away from the reality."

Reuters reported that Yangshan copper premium rebounded to $US2.5 a tonne after hitting zero for the first time on record, indicating a slight improvement in appetite to import copper into China. However, the premium is close to none, compared to the $US67.50 at the beginning of the year. The slide in the premium has been driving by the collapse in TC/RC processing prices for copper concentrates.

 

[DaveTrade]

I think that the pullback in Copper is starting, the first or the second zone on the way down are my targets.

 

[debtfree]

High Grade Copper COMEX​

A good start in nullifying the two reversal candles from last week...​

Just a quick update here, because we only covered it in Friday's Evening Wrap.

In that update, I voiced some concerns about two recent reversal candles, suggesting that given overall trends were still very much intact, they likely merely indicated "the end of the beginning of this copper uptrend – not necessarily the beginning of the end".

I also said candles would be crucial in confirming the return of the demand-side. In this regard, Friday's white candle is a good start, and if it can be confirmed by the developing Monday candle (still live!), then copper's short term uptrend remains intact.

Copper bulls want to wake up tomorrow morning and see that the last candle in the chart above is still white, and has closed at or very near the high of the session.

4.695-4.731 is the key point of supply. Assuming all goes well, 4.466 moves to demand.

 

[Sean K]

The best copper monthly close for copper is $4.71. If we continue on the current trajectory, might be making a monthly ATH soon.

Could be a good decade for copper stocks.

 

[frugal.rock]

The best copper monthly close for copper is $4.71. If we continue on the current trajectory, might be making a monthly ATH soon.

$4.71? meh

 

[Captain_Chaza]

Go Baby ! Go!

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Go Baby ! Go!

not gone yet?

 

[DaveTrade]

It looks so strong doesn't it, and the sector is strong. Looking at the chart, it's at a price zone where a pause in the up trend may happen. It may even make a false breakout here, come back into the zone before continuing up.

 

[Sean K]

It's been a very good run up to five bucks but these wicks are concerning short term.

Some consolidation around here, please.

 

[noirua]

x.com

x.com

 

[JohnDe]

My holdings of COPX have surpassed previous highs, and has been relativly stable. I am surprised.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

the yanks are getting on board ... nothing new, but .... ::

​ ​

​ The Investment Cases for Copper​ By Ed D'Agostino | May 21, 2024 Copper prices have exploded higher, up 33% year to date.​ ​ The demand is coming from so many sectors of the global economy, it is hard to find a reason not to invest. The energy transition is driving much of the demand. Copper is a critical input for renewable power generation like wind turbines, solar panels, and batteries. It’s also essential for electrical wiring for the grid. Global power grid capacity will need to double by 2050 to meet increased electricity demand, requiring an additional 427 million metric tons of copper. Copper is a key component in electric vehicle (EV) batteries and motors. EVs use up to 4X more copper than gas-powered cars. Before you scoff at the analysis, remember, the US car market is very different from the rest of the world. US demand for EVs may have slowed, but that’s not the case abroad. China produces twice as many electric vehicles (not just cars, but vehicles, including e-bikes) as gas-powered cars. This makes sense. China is building new sources of electricity, with more nuclear power plants under construction than any other country. And it has ample rare earth metals and battery manufacturing capacity. What it does not have is an overabundance of oil. Going electric makes China more resilient and energy independent. India is another copper story. While China’s economic growth is slowing, India’s is ramping up. Demand for EVs there is surging. The country is building a network of high-speed rail, along with multiple nuclear and solar power plants. The most populated nation in the world will need to expand its energy grid for years to come. Finally, and closer to home, artificial intelligence data centers require copper and grid expansion. All of this is happening in the face of limited supply. Miners have increased copper production annually for the past 20 years, but many analysts are concerned supply cannot meet the increase in demand. Just a few months ago, most analysts didn't expect a copper deficit until late this decade. But recent mine disruptions and lower production guidance now point to a deficit as soon as 2024. Goldman Sachs projects a 5Mt deficit by 2030. Increasing supply is not a quick or easy process—it can take decades to bring a new copper mine online. Copper miners who can ramp up output could be extremely well-positioned. Investors and large miners are making moves. Activist investor Paul Singer’s investment firm, Elliott Management, has reportedly built a $1 billion stake in miner Anglo American. Anglo has recently received and rejected two buyout offers from behemoth copper miner BHP Group Ltd. (BHP). The share prices of Freeport McMoRan (FCX) and Southern Copper Corp. (SCCO) have climbed 29.73% and 53.25% year to date, respectively.​ ​ The surge in copper demand fits in nicely with two of my investment themes: increasing US productivity driven by AI, and an increasingly multipolar world. As nations strive to boost productivity and gain an edge in AI, global demand for electricity will continue to grow. And as the world becomes increasingly multipolar, the US, China, and other nations will move to secure access to critical commodities. They’ll stockpile these commodities at higher than historic levels.​

 

[debtfree]

Some news at Market Index yesterday about Copper by Carl Capolingua "The copper short squeeze is happening - Morgan Stanley" worth a read.

The copper short squeeze is happening - Morgan Stanley

Many funds that are short copper are being forced to cover their positions and this is pushing the price higher, says Morgan Stanley

www.marketindex.com.au

 

[Sean K]

Discussion on copper from 7.45. The rest is good too.

 

[Sean K]

We all should have expected this.

Some sustained consolidation above 4.50 might be nice.

 

[DaveTrade]

Copper is looking like it will continue down through the current support zone. The next support comes in around the $26 area, I'm still looking for an entry long in this market and I'm waiting to see how it reacts at the next support.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Copper prices surpassed $10,000/tonne on Friday after Citigroup analysts predicted the industrial metal may retest that level on investor optimism over policy support in China.

The world’s biggest consumer is widely anticipated to introduce further stimulus to upgrade its renewable energy infrastructure at the Third Plenum meeting in mid-July.

These additional measures, specifically targeting domestic property and grid investments, are expected to support copper prices in the near term, Citi analysts said in a note.

https://editorial.northernminergroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/GRsi_byWUAAs09Z.jpg

 

[noirua]

Copper seems to be sidelined for the time being as other metals take to the stage. Forecasts are still of the coming shortage but few are on board as they've heard this for years. Now might be just the time to get aboard and wait. Miners are still affected by rising costs and I can't find any stockpiling reports by miners. However, China does have stockpiles of copper:
Stockpiles have surged this year in China, which imports about 60% of global traded copper, carrying inventories registered with the Shanghai Futures Exchange (ShFE) to a 51-month high of 339,964 metric tons in the week to June 7 -13 June 2024.

Friedland warns of copper ‘crisis’ as mine costs soar
Henry Lazenby - The Northern Miner | July 12, 2024 |

https://www.mining.com/friedland-warns-of-copper-crisis-as-mine-costs-soar/

 

[peter2]

The tough times continue for Dr Copper. The Dr is not seeing many Chinese patients and it looks like the Dr may have caught Covid.

Copper has now fallen >20% from the recent exuberant high.



Really hoping that there's some demand at $4.00/lb. Won't mind if it stays at this level for a few months while China works through it's stockpiles. We copper bulls will rub the patina off our copper stocks and they'll shine again next qtr.