Copper

[mullokintyre]

Things not looking good for copper.
From OilPrice.com


Mick

 

[Sean K]

Things not looking good for copper.
From OilPrice.com
View attachment 163486

Mick

Yes, likely some short term pain while China sorts itself out post Covid, interest rates still have another leg or two and a potential recession. The mid to longer term supply demand deficit narrative remains in tact though. Unless there's a couple of very big high quality discoveries that get to production within 5 years.

 

[mullokintyre]

Yes, likely some short term pain while China sorts itself out post Covid, interest rates still have another leg or two and a potential recession. The mid to longer term supply demand deficit narrative remains in tact though. Unless there's a couple of very big high quality discoveries that get to production within 5 years.

One of the issues about supply/demand contango is that as the copper gets used in various electric scenarios is recycled.
One of the big drivers is the copper demand is the increase in EV's and its supporting infrastructure.
Europe has planned to corece car companies to accomodate recycling plans.
from Automotive Dive

• The European Commission proposed a rule Thursday that aims to significantly improve the automotive industry’s environmental sustainability by encouraging recycling and the reuse of spare parts when vehicles reach the end of their service life.
• The rule would require automakers to provide dismantlers with detailed instructions about replacing and removing components after a vehicle’s service life ends. It would also mandate that automakers use 25% recycled plastic in their vehicles, a quarter of which must come from end-of-life vehicles.
• The measures would reduce carbon emissions by 12.3 million tons annually by 2035, the Commission said. It estimates the rule would create 1.8 billion euros in net revenue by 2035.

Mick

 

[peter2]

IMO the POC is near support at 3.50. Since last years low price (3.25) the production costs have risen at least 10% and that's why I think we're near support. I don't expect a strong rally off this level due to China's subdued growth. This low may be the lowest low for the next few years and therefore worth considering as a medium term trade opportunity.



I did think this opportunity presented in late May23 but price has since fizzled lower. I'm not expecting a smooth trend higher.

 

[rcw1]

Good evening
Bush telegraph has revealed Glencore is closing down its Mount Isa Copper et. al. operations... Maybe something like 1500 jobs gonesky. rcw1 awaits with bated breath for an announcement tomorrow (18/10/23) maybe.
Awful news if true. Maybe the life of the mine has had its day...

Kind regards
rcw1

 

[Dona Ferentes]

AFR reporting that

"...copper mining operations in Mount Isa will close by the end of 2025 - which will result in the loss of about 1000 jobs - but it will keep its refinery and smelters open in Queensland.

"Glencore on Tuesday will announce its three underground copper mines in Mt Isa will be closed by the second half of 2025.

"It is understood the mines are reaching the end of their natural life and the copper grade had become much lower which forced the decision.

"But in a bid to allay local concerns, Glencore will confirm it will keep its copper smelter in Mt Isa and refinery in Townsville open, with enough third-party work to keep them profitable.

"There will also be no change to its zinc operations in Mt Isa.

 

[rcw1]

Good morning,
Further on the Mount isa development published via New Corp Media outlets:

After 60 years of mining, Glencore's Mount Isa Mines underground copper operations will close in the second half of 2025, impacting 1200 jobs. Glencore’s Lady Loretta zinc mine, located 140 kilometres north-west of Mount Isa, which was a finite orebody with a seven-year mine life will also close in 2025. 

Studies and reviews seeking to further extend the life of the underground copper mines have been unsuccessful, and they have reached the end of mine life, the group said. Mount Isa Mines’ other metals assets including the copper smelter, George Fisher Mine, zinc-lead concentrator, and lead smelter in Mount Isa, as well as the copper refinery in Townsville, will all continue operating. Glencore's George Fisher Mine has a current life of mine to 2036 and expectations are for the copper smelter and refinery to continue operating to 2030, subject to approval of additional capital investment. Sam Strohmayr, chief operating officer of Glencore’s zinc assets in Australia, said: “We know this decision will be disappointing for our people, our suppliers, and the Mount Isa community." He said it is too early to put a figure on how many people may receive redundancies until Glencore discusses options around retention, redeployment, and retraining. "Redundancies are the last resort and will be offered only when other options have been exhausted.”

The world of big business.

Kind regards
rcw1

 

[JohnDe]

Copper prices on the move, or more play from the big guns?

Copper producers Teck Resources, Ivanhoe reinstated Overweight by J.P. Morgan

Trading Central

 

[peter2]

OK. I think I've got the recent low in copper. There's been another rally off the 3.54 level. This is the third rally off this level. My average price is 3.57. My target is the old highs at 4.30. I'm also holding some FCX, SCCO and SFR.asx. In total, about 6% of my account has been allocated to copper. This is a conservative allocation as I'm 50% cash. I don't like TECK as the price doesn't seem to move in concert with the POC.



I'm not expecting a quick result. IMHO it may take a year to get there. Hoping there's no world war in the meantime.

 

[rcw1]

Good evening
Bush telegraph has revealed Glencore is closing down its Mount Isa Copper et. al. operations... Maybe something like 1500 jobs gonesky. rcw1 awaits with bated breath for an announcement tomorrow (18/10/23) maybe.
Awful news if true. Maybe the life of the mine has had its day...

Kind regards
rcw1

Good morning
Article published in the Townsville Daily Bulletin online:

GLENCORE SHOCK HURTS LOCALS
CHRIS BURNS

Mount Isa residents are determining how they can pressure Glencore into extending copper operations without giving into panic, which threatens to devastate the mining hub. Across the road from the mines, which contains the income of 1200 miners and their families, a tense gathering was held at the Barkly Highway on Friday night.

It had been a long week for these attendees, their neighbours and their communities, who were caught unprepared on Tuesday night by television reports that Mount Isa Mines’ copper operations and concentrator would close in 2025. At the risk of oversimplicity the issue is this; Glencore said there was not enough copper for viable operations, while workers and residents did not believe the company. Some including Traeger MP Robbie Katter wants Glencore to sell up, move on, and let in other miners more interested in the assets.

About 200 residents attended the forum hosted by the Katters Australian Party MPs, including Mount Isa Mayor Danielle Slade and several councillors, parish priest Father Mick Lowcock, miners, contractors, business owners, and the Townsville Bulletin reporter. Many did not wish to identify themselves in case there were repercussions for themselves or their family who worked for, or were contracted by the company. One such miner said an open cut “super pit’ would be the solution to protect jobs and to access remaining copper, and had the capacity to extend operations by 20 years. A Glencore spokeswoman said a super pit project was not “currently viable” because of challenges involving mine sequencing, the need to remove infrastructure as well as parts of Mount Isa. Realtor John Tully said there was negativity in the city which was not needed. “No one hears about a good steak in the pub,” he said. “They want to … “Let’s support our town.” Engineer Vince Gambino said he moved from Sydney where his family remained, and wanted to be a local resident rather than a fly-in, fly-out worker. He signed a property lease before the company decided not to accept him beyond the probation period. Mr Gambino said the loss of his job and the company’s plan to close its copper operations was likely related. “I do think it is, thinking of it now, they made a decision to release me,” he said.

A diesel fitter from the George Fisher mine site, just outside of the city, said there were already signs that Glencore was increasing production of zinc, lead and silver, as it said it was going to do. A Glencore spokeswoman said the company was invested in Mount Isa’s long-term future and was investing a significant amount of money into operations and exploration.

 

[Sean K]

Looks like we've got a little bit of time to get into copper before the inevitable supply demand crunch. Unless the World boils over in the next couple of years, as per Bas' predictions.



US Treasury yields rose to multiyear highs last week, and the latest earnings reports show borrowing costs are wreaking havoc globally. A renewed bout of volatility in the bond market impacted stock trading on Monday, with the S&P 500 Index swinging between gains and losses after briefly breaching its key 4200 mark.

Tempering expectations​

Tesla – a barometer for copper use in an electric-vehicle sector that has been white-hot up to now – is dialling back growth expectations as years of rapid expansion collide with rising interest rates and a more cost-conscious consumer. Shares in solar manufacturers also plunged last week after US-based SolarEdge Technologies warned of cancelled and delayed orders.

And in China’s heavily indebted property market, Evergrande Group lurched closer to an October 30 court hearing of a petition to wind up the company, which may lay bare the once-unthinkable possibility of liquidating its assets.

At Country Garden Holdings, creditors are preparing for potential debt restructuring after the distressed Chinese developer missed a dollar bond interest payment.

Copper prices traded little changed at $US7986.50 a tonne as of 5.34pm in London (3.34am AEDT), showing a year-to-date loss of 4.6 per cent. Other metals were mostly lower.

 

[peter2]

Copper comfortably off the recent low.



"Investments" in copper producers starting to gain value but was hit with a snag.
Morgan Stanley downgraded SCCO and the knee-jerk reaction wiped my open profit. Bought more at 71. Take that, MS!



Edit: Morgan Stanley not JPM downgraded SCCO. Sorry JPM.

 

[mullokintyre]

Perhaps one of the reasons copper is off its recent lows is the forced closure of the huge Cobre mine in panama, which provides about 1.5% of the worlds copper output. From Zero hedge
Mick

 

[Sean K]

Perhaps one of the reasons copper is off its recent lows is the forced closure of the huge Cobre mine in panama, which provides about 1.5% of the worlds copper output. From Zero hedge
Mick
View attachment 166470

I've been following this and there's no constitutional arguments that I have seen to stop the mine it's just green left activists wanting it stopped 'for the environment.' Say goodbye to $500m pa is royalties Panama. That's probably a large chunk of their GDP they won't have for infrastructure, schools, health etc.

 

[peter2]

Hmm, afterglow. Was it as good for you as it was for me?

 

[greggles]

Those who have been following copper would be aware that the Panamanian government has ordered First Quantum Minerals Ltd to shut down operations at its Cobre Panama copper project, which can produce 400,000 tons of copper a year.

Last week Anglo American Plc announced that it will slash production from its flagship copper business in South America, reducing its copper production target for 2024 by about 200,000 tons.

Both BMO Capital Markets and Goldman Sachs Group are now forecasting copper deficits next year with supply tightening.

 

[peter2]

The Panamanian situation has certainly hit First Quantum hard ($28 to 9.7) but doesn't seem to have influenced the POC.

The slow restocking in China is probably holding the price down. I'd like to see it get above $4.00 and stay there for a while (currently $3.77).
If the price falls lower I'll use it to increase holdings in my copper miners as I've sold some to grab some profit from the prior price rally.

 

[peter2]

Good to see 29M still attracting buyers. Our other Cu wannabes AIS and A1M haven't got any demand yet.
Our tier 1 is flying high (SFR) and doing much better than the US pair, FCX, SCCO.

Copper sentiment is cautious atm waiting for China to stimulate its economy which is looking unlikely if reports of their recent congress are correct. Copper is on a very slow burning fuse. Plenty of time yet before the boom rally.

 

[Sean K]

Copper sentiment is cautious atm waiting for China to stimulate its economy which is looking unlikely if reports of their recent congress are correct. Copper is on a very slow burning fuse. Plenty of time yet before the boom rally.

IMO, this is a no brainer, unless the world implodes. Just need patience. Getting in early is not being wrong.

 

[frugal.rock]

WIRE up 4% in a week, near 6 month highs.