ALL ORDS went nowhere for 7 YEARS!

[shouldaindex]

The contradiction for me is that I don't believe in market timing, yet I spend most of my spare time analysing it.

But that has to do as much with asset allocation as anything. I'm already considered overweight in ASX equities due to my asset allocation in Industry Super (I've set and forget it 100% on ASX equities until forever).

So with my lump sum cash, basically I'm not adding to that asset unless it's on my terms, and if that doesn't happen, I'm happy with my asset allocation as is.

 

[Bill M]

The contradiction for me is that I don't believe in market timing, yet I spend most of my spare time analysing it.

But that has to do as much with asset allocation as anything. I'm already considered overweight in ASX equities due to my asset allocation in Industry Super (I've set and forget it 100% on ASX equities until forever).

So with my lump sum cash, basically I'm not adding to that asset unless it's on my terms, and if that doesn't happen, I'm happy with my asset allocation as is.

Well done and thanks for an honest reply.

Over a lifetime of investing I've heard it all and one of the worst was around March 2009 when our market was down around 55%. Some high profile Financial Guru was on TV getting interviewed and he said something along the lines of "sell everything, get out now and save what little you have left". That ended up being the most stupidest advice I ever heard and exactly at the wrong time. 6 Months later the market was up 30%.

Your super being in 100% ASX equities forever, at these prices I reckon you will do well. At worst you are dollar cost averaging in at cheap prices and at best you will make some very decent $$$$$ in the future when the tide turns and in the mean time picking up dividends for your troubles. Good Luck.

 

[So_Cynical]

The contradiction for me is that I don't believe in market timing, yet I spend most of my spare time analysing it.

What one believes is what one believes, the world carries on, markets reward those that can see and allocate capital into yet to be realised potential and punishes those who cannot...Tech used to talk about finding an edge - an advantage, often that advantage is simply doing what everybody else isn't doing.

 

[Bill M]

Anyone else want to have a stab at where the All Ords might end up by year end? Just for fun.

So far we have:

Systematic 5885
Toyota Lexcen 5500
Bill M 5931

 

[skc]

The Santa Clause rally failed to appear and if it wasn't for the last 8 sessions before today we would be hovering around the 4,920 level.

Out of the 8 people that had a guess of where the XAO would end up, Burglar came the closest with his guess of 5,555, well done.

My guess of 4533 was looking pretty good until the Santa run. Oh well.

Anyone else want to have a stab at where the All Ords might end up by year end? Just for fun.

So far we have:

Systematic 5885
Toyota Lexcen 5500
Bill M 5931

My guess is a double digit fall... so say mid point of 12-15% makes it 4700. Make it 4682 so the guess appears to have even more false precision.

 

[AlterEgo]

5683

 

[UMike]

Anyone else want to have a stab at where the All Ords might end up by year end? Just for fun.

So far we have:

Systematic 5885
Toyota Lexcen 5500
Bill M 5931

Bloody 'ell. A good months end prediction would do me.


5345 a flat year would be nice after the last 4 days.

 

[poverty]

If you asked me 2 weeks ago I would've said 5800.

5200 is my current guesstimate.

 

[shouldaindex]

Forecasters generally predict the same for next year as the previous year.

So do betting companies for the next football season.

Just a human bias to be aware of.

 

[shouldaindex]

Doing comparisons of 4 major markets in various time periods:

Since 2000 best returns:

1. All Ordinaries
2. Hang Seng
3. S&P 500
4. FTSE

Since 2009 best returns:

1. S&P500
2. All Ordinaries
3. FTSE
4. Hang Seng

Past 12 months best returns:

1. All Ordinaries
2. S&P 500
3. FTSE
4. Hang Seng

2016 so far best returns:

1. All Ordinaries
2. FTSE
3. S&P 500
4. Hang Seng

 

[Bill M]

If you asked me 2 weeks ago I would've said 5800.

5200 is my current guesstimate.

I know what you mean. I'm surprised today, I thought we'd get whacked but the 5,000 level is still holding.

Forecasters generally predict the same for next year as the previous year.

So do betting companies for the next football season.

Just a human bias to be aware of.

Last year you picked 4500............ not going to have a go this year?

 

[shouldaindex]

I'm not good at specific timeframes, so my other thread is about reaching that sort of level by 2018.

 

[Logique]

Anyone else want to have a stab at where the All Ords might end up by year end? Just for fun.
So far we have:
Systematic 5885
Toyota Lexcen 5500
Bill M 5931

I'll go with 5400, as a low confidence prediction. Bill, how about a summary in Dec 2016, it would be interesting to see where it finishes.

 

[Junior]

Banks/miners/supermarkets to continue to hold the index back. Small/mid-caps to outperform again.

Index at 4,850 at year end.

 

[Bill M]

I'll go with 5400, as a low confidence prediction. Bill, how about a summary in Dec 2016, it would be interesting to see where it finishes.

Yep, no worries. 2015 year end guesses were:

shouldaindex 4500
skc 4533
burglar 5555 (winner, came the closest)
knowthepast 5700
triathlete 5840
Logique 5900
Bill M 5931
McLovin 6200

Will definitely do a summary at year end 2016, cheers.

 

[Triathlete]

Put me in for 5550 thanks

 

[cynic]

The number 3900, it's just the "vibe" of it ya know?

 

[shouldaindex]

This is a great thread Bill, it's captured the full cycle sentiment perfectly since 2011 for the ASX, starting with despair (as the title suggests and the thread starting within a few % of the market bottom) and working through the various stages since:

http://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/Stages-for-AAPL.png

It made about 60% in ASX total returns in 3.5 years from October 2011 - April 2015 on the ascend up.

Unfortunately my strong opinion is that it looks like we've been subtly moving through the blow off phase for the past 9 months and going to fulfil the cycle in the next year or two.

My shorthanded estimates are a 4500-4700 bottom (20-25% drawdown) without a Major Recession / Financial Crisis. But if one did eventuate then I'd reassess and bring the 4200 mark (30% drawdown) into play and go from there.

 

[Bill M]

The number 3900, it's just the "vibe" of it ya know?

Welcome back, so ya gave up using them coffee beans? Then ya had a year off (no guess last year) and now your back with the "vibe". The way things are going, you might just nail it. Man that's going to wipe out a lot of Mums and Dads and their super.

I use the "tummy rumblings" method myself but I have been wrong so often I'm going to visit the Doctor and get a checkup. Cheers mate!

 

[Bill M]

This is a great thread Bill, it's captured the full cycle sentiment perfectly since 2011 for the ASX, starting with despair (as the title suggests and the thread starting within a few % of the market bottom) and working through the various stages since:

http://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/Stages-for-AAPL.png

It made about 60% in ASX total returns in 3.5 years from October 2011 - April 2015 on the ascend up.

Unfortunately my strong opinion is that it looks like we've been subtly moving through the blow off phase for the past 9 months and going to fulfil the cycle in the next year or two.

My shorthanded estimates are a 4500-4700 bottom (20-25% drawdown) without a Major Recession / Financial Crisis. But if one did eventuate then I'd reassess and bring the 4200 mark (30% drawdown) into play and go from there.

I like that chart in the link. We are in the blow off phase but where exactly I don't know and how long it will last is something else I don't know. How low will it go? I would love to pick that bottom of the V but it's near on impossible. News filters through to the Mums and Dads through the media, by the time they check their super online it is too late. When my neighbour starts complaining that his super has gone backwards and that it isn't worth investing in it, then it may be at the bottom of the V. Thanks, I like reading your posts.