Triathlete
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2015--5840
ALL ORDS went nowhere for 7 YEARS!
- Thread starter Bill M
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I can give a hint- CBA, ANZ, WBC and the ones that are at ATH. WES should follow soon as it is very close to ATH.
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Thoughts on the XAO over a decade? All Ords at 17,000? at 2030 ?
http://www.smh.com.au/money/investi...rally-round-this-forecast-20130106-2cb24.html
Old report. But you never know.
Julia
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Yeah, right.
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Yeah, right.
Lol its possible!!! You never know!!
Bill M
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Yeah, right.
It's not out of the realm's of possibility. Look at the Dow Jones Industrial Index, it has almost trebled since about March 2009 and that took less than 5 years. We only need to treble to get to 17,000........ and 2030 is 15 in years time. I think it is quite achievable, 15 years is a long time and we are still 7 years off our all time high right now.
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It's not out of the realm's of possibility. Look at the Dow Jones Industrial Index, it has almost trebled since about March 2009 and that took less than 5 years. We only need to treble to get to 17,000........ and 2030 is 15 in years time. I think it is quite achievable, 15 years is a long time and we are still 7 years off our all time high right now.
I agree, Bill, but I don't think it's likely. To get to 17,000 requires a ~7.8%pa in capital growth. That would be historically above average, but stranger things have happened. I certainly wouldn't be buying a new boat in anticipation.
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I hope the AU Equities improves. I mean we have so much super. And I am pretty sure that helps the stock market a lot. Wondering what political changes can be made to improve the equities market? In Australia? What do you more seasoned professionals think? I also feel Australia has so many commodity stocks. Every second stock people are talking about are the little penny stocks in the gold/IO/silver sector. Perhaps Australia needs to diversify a bit? I dont know.
Julia
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It's not out of the realm's of possibility. Look at the Dow Jones Industrial Index, it has almost trebled since about March 2009 and that took less than 5 years. We only need to treble to get to 17,000........ and 2030 is 15 in years time. I think it is quite achievable, 15 years is a long time and we are still 7 years off our all time high right now.
I agree, Bill, but I don't think it's likely. To get to 17,000 requires a ~7.8%pa in capital growth. That would be historically above average, but stranger things have happened. I certainly wouldn't be buying a new boat in anticipation.
Of course it's possible. Anything is possible, including a fall to 3000.
A realist would ask "is it likely"?
If anyone would like to engage with me in a bet of $100 that we will reach 17000 in the next decade, let me know. I'd be very happy to pay up if it occurred.
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Bill M said:
It's worth remembering that Australian companies pay dividends and American companies buy-back shares so a direct comparison between DJIA and XJO/XAO doesn't really work out. XAOAI is up ~120% from the bottom in early 2009, which is ~14.5%pa (before franking credits).
It's not out of the realm's of possibility. Look at the Dow Jones Industrial Index, it has almost trebled since about March 2009 and that took less than 5 years. We only need to treble to get to 17,000........ and 2030 is 15 in years time. I think it is quite achievable, 15 years is a long time and we are still 7 years off our all time high right now.
I would say there is a way better then even chance of hitting 17,000+ prior to 2030 - whether it finishes at or above that point is a lower (but not low) probability.
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You reckon it's that high? I would have thought (based on sticking my finger in the air) it would be around 35-40% that we'd touch it. I guess back in 1992 when the market was at ~1,500 no one would have thought it would get to 6,800 in 15 years. Who knows? Fifteen years is so far away. I sure as hell hope the banks aren't 3x bigger.
You reckon it's that high? I would have thought (based on sticking my finger in the air) it would be around 35-40% that we'd touch it. I guess back in 1992 when the market was at ~1,500 no one would have thought it would get to 6,800 in 15 years. Who knows? Fifteen years is so far away. I sure as hell hope the banks aren't 3x bigger.
For it not to get there, something has to be different this time - that's not usually a good bet.
XAO daily close since dollar float.
XAO Historical monthly close
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They are very interesting, thanks for posting. What do the upper and lower bounds of that trend line represent?
Nothing - just a channel that covers the majority of the data points.
For me the real question is not if we make 17,000 but what 17,000 means in real terms.
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Because I have become fanatical about this stuff. Reading "Stock Market for Dummies"
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True. Inflation does equities no favours. I like when the march is slow and steady. It means fewer decisions than when prices are steaming ahead.
Yikes, i just saw the time.
Over and out.
UMike
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That'd probably buy 2 beers by then!
17.000 is uneven number. Lets round up things to 40.000 in two decades before major correction kicks in.
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=24462&p=849818&viewfull=1#post849818
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=24462&p=849818&viewfull=1#post849818
Julia
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Fair enough. Name your sum.
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