Top of this cycle for ASX 200, cash is king?

[kahuna1]

Hilarious ...

the hits keep coming and my insides liquefy as a result.
Sadly I listened to Trump and its all fake, its a hoax despite the facts being out in the open and the aid withheld until they got caught trying to force an investigation unto a USA citizen. The only one .... only one they insisted was investigated and he just happened to be the likely opponent of Trump 2020.

Sigh ....

Today's madness is yet another bank bashing day.
WBC apparently up on money laundering much like the recent CBA case. That one cost a hell of a fine and this one, if its to be believed is for twice as many breaches.

The banks as a group over the last 12 months, always under assault from royal commission and remediation issues along with needing MORE capital and paying out too many dividends hit lows around the $24 mark in the mayhem last Dec when the ASX was 25% lower, then magic pills and idiot rallies up over $28- and close to $30- for NAB ANZ and WBC ...

Same game .... different year. Interest rates likely to be cut again or so it seems ... so 0.5% and even on lowered dividends for most at $25- ish and a fully franked 6% yield for me its yet again time to add. Whilst I think the USA very toppish ... adding or slowly adding back to the ones I disposed of as the banks went on their magic rally seems like a good idea. Famous last words but having shed almost all of the purchases late 2018 for insane gains, time to play the same game again all be it with interest rates likely 1% lower and the RBA very clearly saying its going to be low rates for some time.

I am still giggling over the insane Orange moron and today's comments about its all a hoax, its fake ... when first hand witness's were testifying as to what they heard.

Hold onto something for 2020 as its looking like nothing I have seen in many many years.

Cheers

 

[Smurf1976]

Hold onto something for 2020 as its looking like nothing I have seen in many many years.

Any chance of an elaboration as to what you're expecting?

You've somewhat lost me there sorry......

My own thought is that a correction is in store before too much longer. What happens after that I don't really have a view one way or the other.

 

[kahuna1]

Any chance of an elaboration as to what you're expecting?

You've somewhat lost me there sorry.....

Well .... when one has a person tweeting 82 times in a single day ... its obvious they have not much better to do. When its the president of the USA and this is normal, its a new abnormal.

A lot of things can happen into 2020 and yet another billionaire enters the race. One who is for no change to no tax for the rich and no change to the USA and 87 million with either no healthcare or very poor cover.

That's just the tip of the iceberg .... USA just slashed tax to the corporate and if reversed as say Warren wants to that will take alone 30% off the recent 60% USA rally. IF she gets medicare for all ... the 225 billion net profit healthcare and insurers and drug makers earn in the USA will likely fall 70-80% over time another 10% fall on the index. All of course post 2020 ... add a wealth tax cut another 10% off equities.

I have no idea what a cornered Trump will do. Likely with so many spoilers on the democrats ... he get re-elected.

In the meantime to distract he will and has done things I thought not possible.

USA share of global GDP once was 40% sadly its acting as though it still is. Its share is half what it was and treating everyone else as second rate to USA exceptionalism is a thing of the past.

Yes things will move on ... the world will keep spinning ... and if not 2020 then 2024 ... the USA will change and it must as its deficit at current rates will hit 120% of GDP by then. Pointing out the net worth of the median person in the USA is actually zero ... zero net wealth is somewhat alarming.

Taking the lower 80% in 1980 they owned 23% of the wealth not a great number, but ok .... its now 7% and falling. FALLING. There is no middle class left in the USA.

Democracy will eventually assert itself and cults never end well .... and this is what we are dealing with a cult.

The list of things that Trump could and likely will do in 2020 scare me.

 

[Smurf1976]

The list of things that Trump could and likely will do in 2020 scare me.

Ah, OK, now I get what you're saying.

I'm of similar thinking on that one. If Trump is actually, really cornered then there's all manner of things he could do. What that means for the markets is impossible to know but my thinking is that we'll have a crisis, perceived or actual, at some point in the not too distant future (this financial year in Australian terms) and associated with that crisis will be a significant fall in the major share indices globally.

My thinking there is that the US political situation, and for that matter the UK with Brexit and their elections, are approaching an end point. Those seeking to impeach or otherwise remove Trump would be wanting to do so prior to the 2020 elections lest he wins another term and there's only so much further things can be dragged on in the UK before it's resolved one way or another.

That political instability wouldn't matter if we were talking about the government of some tiny island indeed for that matter it wouldn't be too important if it were Australia or Italy. In practice however it's the USA and UK, New York and London, and that's the very heart of financial markets.

Whether my expected crisis represents a buying opportunity or whether it turns out to be the first of several steps down I won't try to guess. That really depends on how it resolves.

 

[kahuna1]

I note the S+P had a high of 3,154 and futures of 3,159 .... and still its lurking in that region,

Our market smashed on the banking side as a wall of worry and hot air abounds.

New Zealand came out today and its requirement for capital needed. Was expected but here is the difference and impact ... or my view of it.

Win win win …

RBNZ capital requirements changes 5th Dec 2019.

Whilst on the face of it going to 16% tier one capital is onerous.

Banks in Australia who own the NZ ones have been aware of this for 2 years.

2 years.

They have been shoring up their capital in expectation of it.
ANZ and WBC the main ones hit both now have come out with a requirement of around NZD 7 billion needed tier one.

It sounds bad, it is in fact far better than expected.

Massively so.

Instead of allowing 5 years, its now 40% more and 7 years.
Secondly weighting for capital requirements have been relaxed.
What is allowed for being called tier one capital RELAXED and preference perpetual share debt that is convertible is now allowed.

Massive all of these.

It gets better.

RBNZ estimates it will make loans 32 basis points more expensive as it is allowing banks to raise their margins and in fact it will generate massive increases in profits in NZ which, will of course be retained and in fact pay for itself.

I suspect about HALF if not more of additional capital will be raised and retained with zero impact to the payout to shareholders. It will of course see say 400 million NZD rising to 750 million each year more profits after tax, but these will be retained.

Bottom line ? Well shareholders get a much more secure bank overall.

Big losers ? Whilst inconvenient and a cost already having this impost of 16% capital required, end result is passed onto the consumer and the investor whilst not profiting from the misery of the poor consumer, gets an institution with massive capital buffers.

Whilst so many have worried about this for so long, the end result is actually far far far less than feared. Having 7 years, an open and published acceptance by RBNZ that the net margin banks earn will rise 0.32% …. and the relaxing of how risk is counted coupled with some relaxation of what is counted by RBNZ as actual capital means basically …. NOTHING.

Win win win … except for poor NZ consumers.

I do note how absurd it is to raise capital requirements to worlds best, highest cost and when the USA and EU will not even confirm to the much lower levels and ones 4% lower by 2024 makes it all a nonsense. In a global market, when an issue such as the GFC occurs, global systemic risk is key.

Whilst nice, and pretty, its absurd if not idiotic to demand this of banks when more than likely the risk will be global. Having 16% capital cushion in say 2027 when its likely some will be delayed and be holding 11% or less makes your banks not really that much safer in a global contagion, which is likely what will occur next crisis.

Reading the 300 pages of PDF's released I am somewhat agog at how much has been given on one hand …. and taken on the other via higher consumer and borrowing costs.

As to predictions of end of the world or payout ratios using idiotic past data when say WBC used to pay out $1.88 and its now $1.60 speaks for itself.

Suggestions of some new force about to take over banking, well, it will be regulated just the same and have no capital, no infrastructure and be required to report and provide similar if not identical safeguards as existing banks. In short the hurdle just got higher and entry to the market harder and more expensive as a result.

Similar things occurring in Australia for identical reason and recent rate cuts, not passed on …. same reasons and same result. Lions share of the fall in dividends already occurred and implemented with most cutting by 10% the size of the dividend paid.

Good luck

 

[kahuna1]

If your wondering why the USA rallied .... like a rocket this from MFF thread speaking about Australia's best fund manager and a global leader in retuns ...

Basically the USA just made tax on the international side of USA companies optional ...

For the record ....
He returned 47% including dividends verses the index ... which he and MFG use which was around 26% up in AUD terms year on year.

Whilst MFG did ok and Hamish Douglass is a fair investor ... FAIR ... the MFG two global funds returned 27% and 28% .... verses MFF at 37%.

Yet again MFF ... one of the founders of MFG and still associated working out of the same office but no management role in MFG ..... MFF beat MFG ... by around 10% this year.

The average the MFF fund manager, Chris Mackay has beaten MFG which itself is no slouch by over the past decade is now close to 8% each year .... basically a doubling of ones funds if compounded.

Whilst Mackay prefers no press, does not even bother with results and bench-marking, others do. He is in the top 50 fund mangers on performance over the last decade. This is out of 10,000 fund managers.

An astounding result and a low key manager who, well .... just does it. Buffett has not even beaten the index over the past 10 years despite amazing tax ripoffs he has gotten via his companies .... tax that the USA healthcare and education system needed, but Warren .... needed more.

Ahh ... still of the view USA side eventually tops out. What did occur in 2019 was that the tax paid by USA corporates halved .... hence the 30% rally. Tax paid overseas by USA companies is now optional and if you complain .... USA will impose tariffs as France just found out and India to its regret in 2017.

Whilst impeachment is unlikely, the corrupt nature of the system is exposed. Globally no other nation can or will trust USA in any deal for decades irrespective of 2020. Any trade deal when say a govt changes likely to be torn up, as for defence or Non nuclear .... NATO and Iran deal torn up spring to mind. China trade deal, a problem created by USA, achieved ZERO ... other than China declaring no USA software can be used and NON CHINESE made computers are banned in all levels of Govt from 2024 which includes Federal state local which are in effect the same and govt owned enterprises ... which are MASSIVE.

USA for now has ignored this total and permanent destruction of a market. Why ? Well buried in the corrupt USA budget the taxing of overseas operations of USA based multinationals became even more a joke with Mnuchin allowing loans ... non audited loans to tax havens with no penalty for 7 years, which will totally eliminate any tax burden not paid overseas in bringing the money back to the USA.

Hence the rally .... basically ... things like Facebook claims to pay 1,000 million in overseas tax in 2018 ... when you add it up, it comes to less than 100 million. Basically a fiction. Totally a fiction. Largest income source in Asia is Japan with 1.58 billion USD income and overall 40% plus margin on sales profit wise ... Japan in 2018 got paid 200 million Yen or less than 2 million USD in tax on what clearly was 650 million in profits. So under 1% .... tax paid to Japan and the rest stolen. Australia fared slightly and I mean slightly better. Facebook sales here just over 990 million USA or 1.455 Billion AUD so a profit at 41.6% margin on sales WAS 605 million NET profit PRE TAX ... we got paid from memory insteead of 180 million tax, a mere 16 million.

We despite Japan having 25 million very high income facebook users ... and Australia 15 million, Australia collected 8 times more tax ... than Japan and ... well instead of paying 30% tax here ... or even sharing say 50/50 ... despite the fact we proportionately pay for R+D and gave done so for years .... we got paid at 2.6% tax rate instead of the 30% one.

Worse and more disgraceful is Facebook one of Australia's largest tax avoiders booked over half its sales via low tax tax havens and GST was avoided ... to the tune of 80 million.
]
One company stole 250 million in a single year from Australia, Google was far worse, Apple ... even worse, Microsoft the king of thieves has been doing it for years and its sales near 5 billion AUD ... only half go through Australia and GST and Tax Microsoft and that scumbag Gates who now has exited into a tax haven called a charity ... they borrowed or stole close to a billion all by themselves.

USA market and this rally ... is based upon destruction inside the USA with tax in corporate side HALF the level in was say in 2006 ... HALF and an at best 15% of overseas paid v 2006.

Things may change ... most Americans outside the top 20% have NO stocks, they are being crushed by healthcare costs at 3 times anywhere else, and wages that ... are sadly a joke. For the record the top 10% own 84% of all stock.




If you go out the top 20% mainly white .... own 95% of all stock and in fact, shockingly the bottom 80% in the USA own NOTHING .... or a mere 7% of the overall wealth verses a number in Australia that is 4 times that !!

The official Median wealth in the USA is supposedly 60k .... this number was 7k until they changed how they measure it and included pensions which are private in the USA .... unfunded and crashing every day and benifits being cut often by 90% ... they included these fictional assets in the numbers.

A change ... of leadership in the USA.... is possible and it will ... well ... reverse what is an abomination there. Australia and the rest of the world cannot survive . UK recently commented Google in a single year stole enough tax to pay 60,000 nurses in the UK.

If the USA were to have say Warren or Sanders elected who merely will make the bloody companies pay tax, the stock market which since 2015 has nearly doubled ... 1,800 to 3,330 in the S+P I suspect the fall will be dramatic. The PROFITS and RECORDS Trump touts about are fictions. USA inequality hit all time lows, healthcare, life expectancy ... Job Quality index is at 50 year lows, participation rate in the USA is near 40 year lows verses rest of the world at near all time highs ....

This 2020 is going to be fun. If its Trump for another 4 years, which given the impeachment was never going to evict him, I suspect he wins a battle on that one, but Lev Parnas and even moderate Republicans want healthcare ... and exposing the corruption domestically will I suspect be telling.

Amusing ... MFF ... prefer them ... with above caveats ...

 

[kahuna1]

Sorry chart did not come out ...

Basically top 10% own 84% of all stocks ... top 20% even more.



Other factors why the rally ....

Warren threat seen gone.
Sanders they also seem to think no threat for 2020 ...

USA has taken control totally of the USA Fed and clearly so.
USA fed stuffed money and liquidity into the market AGAIN ...

France who was sick of being ripped of an not paid any tax by any of these USA based crooks was threatened with 25% tariffs and actually backed off ...

Nothing like a bribe or political donation to the USA Republican party and sanctions occur or tariffs and so on.

France and Germany agreed to wait till after 2020 to deal with it.

Micheal West writes excellent stuff, google him, on the impact these tax thieves are having on Australia and I agree with his numbers at the 20-30 billion a year, every year benign stolen from Australia.

Sickening that Chevron pays NO tax with some of t
he largest LNG plants, No does Netflix in Australia and the likes of Apple, Microsoft, Google and Facebook pay at a weighted average of 2% .... verses out tax rate of 30%. I would add that over 15 billion is booked via overseas tax havens and GST of 1.5 billion is NOT paid.

So the UK going Google cost 60,000 nurses alone, if I were to use the full number at 25 billion and say 75k which is what a Nurse should be paid, not what they are .... USA and I mean both sides of the isle Republican and Democrats have been in the past just as bad in allowing and encouraging tax theft globally ...

We could at 75k per nurse .... have 333,333 MORE nurses each and evey year.

Nothing is perfect, this and PM Morrisons obscenity and lack of spine is astounding and disgraceful. He is like a dog to the USA. I don t expect we get it all, but no Australian company can compete with NO tax and NO GST .... companies. Our economy and the global economy HAS A HOLE ...... a leak that goes to Mr Zuckerburg, or Tim Cook at Apple or Google and so on.

Meanwhile they the USA deny any climate issue as we do and 28 EU nations along with the UK have declared a zero 2050 CO2 target, they must be MAD ....

Greed has no bounds.

I prefer to be optimistic and a deep love of the USA people on the main, leads me with some degree of growing confidence that USA will elect Bernie Sanders by a landslide and denial and death to the poor or gays, or Mexicans or Islamic followers and no tax for the rich and the poor pay tax but get no benifits will be replaced by, something similar to what we on the main enjoy here despite efforts to swing us to the NO TAX for the rich side of the equation.

USA will elect Bernie Sanders by a landslide ...

The media and it being run by the elite will not cover it much as FDR was mocked in the 1930's.
I note Bloomberg who is ... well so far right ... a republican who has a charity that ... well gave out 01% in 10 years and has Jeb Bush on its board and the Ex head of Goldman Sachs and Republican Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson is spending 2 billion to TRY ... to win.

Good LUck ...

USA will elect Bernie Sanders by a landslide ...

Despite under 1,000 billionaires in the USA ... we have 3 ... yes 3 running for president. The Guy who did Starbucks ... Styer is running. Amusingly Starbucks used to buy its coffee from where ? Switzerland of course dummy. That nation of course does not produce or make any coffee. It does however have Cantons with tax rates of 5% and tax breaks of 90% for the first 20 years so 0.45%.

USA will elect Bernie Sanders by a landslide ...

Trump and the impeachment will fail.
Of course it will.
The battle is lost ...
The WAR is actually won.
I am so amused by Lev Parnas who Trump claims he does not know this Ukrainian mafia guy.

I think even hardcore Republicans not ... fanatical ones are astounded by one side Trump going I dont know him, as did Vice President Pence ... and a long list of others .... then pictures ... video ... so amusing and now the Audio of TAKE HER out ... instructions to take her out an Ambassador or the USA.

When Joe Rogan who, well is a racist homophobe comes out and says with 7 million viewers he is voting for Bernie ... I suspect 90% of his mainly white young to middle age male audience ... he bloody endorses Benrie Sanders and got to great lengths to explain WHY ... times they are a changing.

Trump meanwhile ... did 109 twitters in a single day.

Vice President Pence attended a lecture by a well known anti gay hating preacher and the ... well ... text of what was said was a disgrace.

Trump himself attended the anti abortion rally. Are you kidding me ... Not a great fan of abortions but also NOT unaware of the right of a female over her bloody reproductive system and totally ... completely and absolutely opposed to the theory that a raped women or one via incest is NOT allowed to abort. Let alone a medical emergency where the woman will die ... No abortion ... Yes Trump supports it totally.

USA will elect Bernie Sanders by a landslide ...

That Hillary Clinton is even trying to besmirch Sanders who actually did after he dropped out in 2016, and Hillary was going against Trump, sanders did 41 rallies for Hillary 2016 ... in 19 states. Hillary, sadly sat on the board of Walmart as they slashed healthcare cover and refused to raises wages from $8 and hour .... they now are at $11- ... GO Hillary. Obama is just as disgusting whilst both Democrats, they are further right than the liberal party here and oppose universal healthcare. Oppose taxing the rich where Gates pays tax at 12% whilst Buffett at 15% and his secretary pays it at 35%.

USA will elect Bernie Sanders by a landslide ...

If I am correct and its a wild call ... a wish ...
If Bernie were to get a mandate and control both houses, all hell will break loose. USA on the main does not give a rats arse that stocks are at all time highs. Life expectancy of the lower 10% is at 57 Years and the top 10% at close to 90.

If the Trump tax cuts were to be reversed ... stocks would tumble ... it would mean NOTHING ... as the rise MEANS nothing unless your in the top say 10% in the USA and the top 1% holds over 50% ....

Mayhem .... healthcare stocks such as the criminal Dialysis one that does 70% of dialysis its up 150 fold since 2000 ... it does however charge at 20 times the rate of any other nation. Heath-care insurers ... up 15 fold ....


Gee medicare for all will shed 20% all by itself ...

THAT'S 50% .... so 2020 ... BE very aware .... whilst Bernie may or may not. My faith in humanity and all America not being totally stupid must be coupled with an intense post 2016 dislike African Americans have for Trump and his type, Bloomberg ... with polling at 5% and under. Latino were in 2016 ambivalent to him, well ... Peuto Ricans and Mexicans I doubt feel the same in 2020. As for Islamic faith people in the USA, well, I think if one turned up to a MAGA rally, it would not be pretty.

If Sanders got a landslide, which, well ... being realistic is me being optimistic, but if he did the USA equity side is a mere mirage on NO TAX ... Global Tax theft and ... well uber rich Americans who have paid no tax so 40 years. Wealth tax increasing to 8% on over a billion is ... harsh, but, the sad fact is the median person working full time in the USA earns $32k and 28k after tax and Social Security FICA ... and average healthcare costs in the USA ... just hit $12,000 ....

It would be obvious if they starved them .... they just play FOX news blaring instead of the classical music in the Showers 75 years ago. BOTH are a disgrace and Bernie being Jewish recently reminded people NEVER again is NOT just about the Jewish faith its ALL BLOODY PEOPLE .... race religion ... beliefs and creeds.

One may disagree with many things Sanders say. but reality is, he just wants better healthcare much as we have it. A fairer tax system there ... where rich pay MORE not less ... MORE as a percentage as income rises. He also wants better roads and education which ... is a shambles.

USA will elect Bernie Sanders by a landslide ...2020 BE AFRAID .... if they actually do !! USA will slide ... the paper profits of NO tax ... will be replaced with something fairer ... not onerous. Then again I can hear Bill Gates ... yet again ... claiming he wants higher taxes ... but when pressed in 2019 he WILL VOTE TRUMP ... as will Buffett ... surprise surprise surprise ...

MINE ... its MINE ... MY Precious ...

This of course is USA based crooks not ours. Our best ... is worth less than 10% of BEzos and Gates is falling behind.

Reason why ? Not because they are silly or USA is great, its because they PAY TAX >... YES PAY TAX ...

What a novel Idea ... PAY a fair share of tax ... or REPAY non payment of tax for 40 years ... sorry must run USA has a Drone buzzing me !!


Jeff BEzos of Amazon ... a company that rarely makes a profit, never paid a dividend. Never not once .. EVER paid tax ... not anywhere ... not to any one. The richest person in the World ? Second pays it at 12% rate verses someone on 100k at 35% .... Third Buffett at 15% tax ....


Gee this is going to be fun.

So so so many tears, Boomberg thinks he is some sort of savior ... HE IS THE PROBLEM and his type.
Bloomberg media makes Fox look tame in its pro USA ... USA first ,,, USA can only be the one that invents anything. Huawei actually employ more R+D staff than Facebook Apple and Google combined.

Sorry upset ... I just checked that 25 billion would employ say 333,000 Nurses in Australia or some fire fighters and a lot of very very good things for our nation .... instead of going to shitheads and Bribes to USA political system that supports this crap. Each year this is stolen ....

I hope and pray ... USA will elect Bernie Sanders by a landslide ... not because I hate billionaires. Of course say Steve Jobs should be one, but that was NOT enough. Its not because I hate America I actually love yanks, its not socialism ... its JUST fair ... the goverment at times controls some things or it gets totally out of hand with NO rules, no ta, no healthcare unless at blackmail prices .... insulin at 10 times the price here in the USA ....

I have admiration for say Gina Rhinehgart on some levels, she has built up her fathers work. Disgust on many others as her support for CO2 and climate denial so she can build her mines. Andrew Forrest of Fortescue, an imperfect self made man. Not some scumbag ... as these neo liberals are in the USA.

enuf ... I find where we are in 2020 ... astounding and absurd. USA wise and globally. Casually threaten nuclear option against 3 nations, almost start a war with another, condone a genocide in Yemen that killed 250,000 in 2019 and when asked, its all about USA arm sales.

Time for new global leadership. All built on little self interest groups that are totally out of control.

 

[kahuna1]

The following is the Full Article .... via Bloomberg the PRO USA anti tax channel ...

First they cut corporate tax rate to 21% from 35% ...
Trump claimed last week it raised tax collected, IT HALVED IT ...

NO extra tax was collected as suggested in this following article.
They at the same time relaxed in 2016 the tax rules for overseas tax to a permanent 10.7% rate and buried in the tax codes, NO PENALTY even for tax not paid 10 years ago, NO interest ....

Effective tax even on the USA side hit 18% then 16% and now 14% collected. Whilst the headline rate was 35% ... prior to 2017 cuts the holes were meant to be plugged, instead ... MORE and more holes created.

The 2019 budget just passed had THE FOLLOWING ... in it PLUS a few other changes that effectively make all USA profits made overseas free from any tax. Corporate tax say in a nation is 30% .... USA pirates and thieves ... can pay ZERO there, and pay ZERO in the USA. Its like a privateers license to steal on the high seas, but in this case STEAL from any nation and if they complain, as India did, get hit over the head with tariffs. Calling India with a per capita GPD under $2,000- developed is absurd. Threatening France and Germany with 25% tax on their exports is blackmail. Its a declaration of WAR !!

Stealing 25 billion in tax from Australia is the largest organized crime our nation has ever seen. Ignoring it, not being able to stand up to outright theft puts our nation .... on this day to SHAME. Its Australia day not USA day or Jeff Bezos day or Bill Gates day or Warrren Buffet day or Koch day ....

That its NOT to be shared ... despite being earn t here .. R+D and costs allowed as a deduction BUT no profit sharing, because we are NOT part of the USA ?

330,000 well paid Nurses ... or a mix of whatever .... $1,000 per every Australian man woman and child being stolen each and every year. Stolen.

It is only fair ... to abide by our laws.

The following article by Billionaire Bloombergs own news channel is what it is ... a disgrace ignoring the fact that theft from the rest of the world is what he and his fellows stand for, let alone the impact USA domestically with 25% not able even to afford medications, 64% unable to muster $400- for an emergency. Bloomberg just misses totally the impacts his greed has upon others. He is part of the problem not the solution.

It is only fair ... to abide by our laws.

November 1, 2019, SO ITS NOW LAW in the USA ..... passed ... already ... is this a law which breaches our own ?

Treasury Plans to Weaken Rules Meant to Stop Corporate Tax Avoidance
November 1, 2019,

The U.S. Treasury Department plans to pare back regulations championed by President Barack Obama that were intended to prevent American companies from moving profits offshore to avoid taxes, according to guidance released Thursday.

The instructions mark a change in U.S. tax policy that has in recent years focused on imposing stricter rules on American corporations using complex transactions to move money overseas to skirt taxes. The Treasury Department said parts of the regulations, implemented in the final months of the Obama administration, are no longer necessary because of the 2017 tax law enacted under President Donald Trump.

“Because tax cuts made our business environment more competitive, we are now able to remove regulatory burdens that have been rendered obsolete, further reduce costs for job creators and hardworking Americans, and protect the U.S. tax base,” Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said in a statement.

Offshore Offices
Treasury’s regulations address rules preventing American firms from lowering their U.S. tax bills by shifting income to offshore related companies, loaning that money back to their domestic companies, and then deducting the interest off their Internal Revenue Service bills.

A senior Treasury official on a call with reporters Thursday said the agency intends to repeal a part of the rules that automatically re-characterize tax-deductible loans as taxable stock if a U.S. company is receiving loans from and distributing cash to a foreign branch within a 72-month window.


The rule made it more likely companies would face higher tax bills as they moved money in and out of the country. Treasury plans to replace it with a standard that is more specific and gets rid of some complex exceptions, the official said.

The new rule would give companies some leeway to prove that two transactions aren’t related and don’t deserve adverse tax consequences.

Businesses resisted the original rules, published in 2016, arguing that the IRS was overstepping its authority. The regulations, commonly called tax code section 385 rules, were some of the most controversial tax rules ever written at the time, prompting companies to send thousands of letters to the IRS in opposition.

Replacing a test that was solely based on timing with a more fact-specific test will make it harder for the IRS to enforce the 385 regulations, said Mark Mazur, who was the assistant secretary for tax policy at Treasury in the Obama administration when the initial rules were issued.

“It’s not like the IRS knows more about the workings of the firm than the firm does,” he added. “So there’s an information asymmetry that creates a disadvantage.”

Reporting Requirements

Treasury will also eliminate requirements for businesses to report their inter-company loans to the IRS, a change the agency had previously proposed.

The moves could make it easier for firms to use accounting tactics to minimize their U.S. earnings and inflate their foreign profits, which are frequently taxed at rates lower than the current 21% domestic corporate levy. The existing regulations were aimed at stopping American companies from moving their headquarters to a lower-tax country, a process known as a corporate inversion.
The removal of the reporting requirements “may increase the propensity for foreign acquisitions and ownership of U.S. assets that are motivated by tax considerations, rather than economics,” the rules said.

Treasury remains cognizant of the need to prevent incentives for U.S. companies to move offshore and for foreign companies to takeover domestic corporations, the official said.

The Treasury Department should tread cautiously in weakening these rules now while Democratic lawmakers are eager to repeal large portions of the 2017 tax overhaul, said Matt Gardner, a senior fellow at the left-leaning Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy. If the next Congress makes changes to the overhaul, these rules might be an important backstop to prevent companies from moving offshore, he said.

“There is every reason to ask whether two or three years down the road that they might need these,” Gardner said.

Tracking Loans
Critics of the regulations say the lower corporate rate and limits on how much interest companies can deduct have made these regulations unnecessary and are a burden on companies that have to track each of their loans.

Business groups, including the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and Organization for International Investment, have said the regulations go far beyond their stated purpose of curbing inversions and hit routine transactions.

The government projected in 2016 that the regulations would increase tax revenue by $600 million annually. Thursday’s proposal would decrease taxpayer compliance cost by $924 million over a decade, according to the guidance. There isn’t an updated estimate for how much the policy changes would affect tax collection.


Democrats have criticized Treasury’s efforts to cripple the inversion rules. Senator Ron Wyden of Oregon, the top Democrat on the Senate Finance Committee, has said the regulations should be made more stringent and weakening them could allow more corporations to cheat on their taxes.

In a statement on Thursday, Wyden said, “The corporations that got a massive taxpayer handout are getting another gift from Donald Trump. The Obama administration had essentially shut down inversions — transactions whose only purpose is to help big multinational corporations move overseas to avoid paying taxes. Weakening these rules only provides an opening for corporations to again dodge their taxes.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...-weaken-rules-to-stop-corporate-tax-avoidance

 

[kahuna1]

From another thread ... the WBC one ...

Its generally about banks .... and a new commentary about here and now at the end ... what I expect next few months and year. Mayhem ....

&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&

I have been active of late in Banks ....

added or should I say purchased at absurd prices today.

Was NOT amused at WBC or its accounts.
Clearly and very clearly it stunk, despite that the stock went UP and UP and UP from $23.66 low to an insane $25.96 high. I wish I had all the buys I did at the low, but when the accounts were examined along with commentary it was a total no brainier to reduce and reduce very HARD. Reason being the capital adequacy, comments about more storms on the Horizon and well ... when the market up to a week ago gives one a gift exit when its clear its time to give the idiots back the shares they sold.

I missed the range of 8% by a long way, but ... also got the 80 cent fully franked dividend to make up for the slow way I entered ... and so too the slow exit.

Cannot complain ... the total range was 8% .... and despite being too soon buying ... 3% off the lows and snagging close to the absolute low ... only got half that ... so ... overall well over 10% yield plus some serious franking credits.

Entered today ... SLOWLY ... this is the bank with the biggest fleas, Litigation wise ,,, capital wise ... and of course managed to pay near the bloody high for the day when the low ... was 35 cents LOWER.

Despite issues ... and knowing them, being paid 6% plus and that's being ultra conservative ... with franking credits again for me is fine. I might add 12 month low of close to it as well.

We shall see how far they send it this time but not about to miss the mayhem.

Added a few of the other banks as well after giving back in the same way as they had even insaner rises. ANZ for example .... went up from $24- to an idiotic .... $27.29 which, well .... even the blind could see at 13% rise was idiotic,

NAB .... similar if not identical rise to ANZ .... and NAB seems to have less issues than any of the banks.

BEN ... knowing full well there was a cap raising coming, the results were good .... but CAP raise and lowered dividend as expected again not great. ... but boy did they slam that a few months ago ... irresistible ... knowing the risks and a mid range 10% or so rally. Its now hit the ground with a thud ... despite being with dividend of 31 cents fully franked and I suppose .... risk the dividend yearly is 58 cents or so .... 55 longer term .... at $9.20 well ... with 31 cent Dividend next week .... seriously ?

Yet another 6% yeild ... at worst likely a bit higher ....

BOQ I put in the trash .... forever.

One thing is clear, and that's we remain at low rates for a long time. When offered an effective yeild of 6% plus franking credits so equiv of over 8% .... gee ... golly golly gee.

But for now end of world.
If Bernie gets in, USA will have a cow .... corporate made to pay tax ? Healthcare at absurd prices and awful coverage ... some of them will overnight thankfully implode.

Time will tell on that one. First he needs to be selected over the corrupt Democratic party elites and likes of Billionaire imbeciles like Bloomberg. Spending 500 million on his preselection and likely USD 700 million by Super Tuesday ... which is 4 days away !!

The man is a zombie that makes even Zuckerburg look human which he is not ...

Should be a fun 2020 ... and if Bernie wins .... which I suspect he is a shoe in, with some serious caveats on the bloody party he is running for ... who is so corrupt ... then Trump ... he faces Trump ... the Yam headed imbecile.

Enjoy

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

As I type ....
Overnight the DOw fell by the largest points ever .... only 4% so well below percentage wise.

Market ignored Conv 19 .... in fact had two rallies of close to 2% at 3 am NY time of late when a rumor a vaccine was invented. Knowing a bit about that, having followed many and that being hundreds of drug companies I knew it was absurd.

USA market rallied for a few reasons. I thought it stopped at 3,165 on the S+P 500 ,... I knew as always when its broken by 1% so 3,195 ... it was going UP ... far far more. The reason was burined in the budget and allowing NO TAX to be paid by any overseas USA based company was the effect. USA tax collected by corporates post 2017 tax cuts went from 25% to 14.7% ...

I found it curios the 4 trillion in overseas profits stolen from every other USA nation by the cretins only 1 trillion went back to the USA despite a very generous 10.7% tax rate offered and NO penalty for tax not paid from previous tax years, Basically NO interest for tax not paid in 2007 tax year. HOW corrupt are they ? Anyhow .... this alone inserted in another bill saved about 100 billion in back interest .

Pretty effective paying political donations and lobbying and other stuff of about 3 billion a year to get not only 100 billion tax break but to HALVE ... the tax paid every year. This being ... that in 2006, which is NOT ancient history USA collected 353 billion in tax from companies. The USA economy in dollar terms is double ... so in 2020 one would expect say 700 billion to be collected. Expect all you want ....

The sad number is in 2020 the Goldman Sachs run USA treasury department expects to collect 252 billion not .... 700 billion. That in round numbers is a tax break of 350 billion each and every year.

When you have 86% of all shares owned by the top 10% and the lower 80% which in normal countries has the whole middle class the Lower middle ... the middle and upper middle and they have a mere 4% of all shares and that's mainly indirect holdings via 401k .... there is a serious issue.

Anyhow the USA 2019 Dec budget for 2020 had inserted into it further breaks for overseas tax theft ... by USA corporations where even the 10.7% discounted rate is now ... AT BEST 3%. Hence the rally.

Houston ... we have a problem. The peasants are revolting !!
Old joke is ... The peasants are revolting .... shut up and eat your peas says the wife !!

The lower 80% under Trump ... and Obama and Bush have seen their healthcare costs DOUBLE >.. yes Obama is as bad and was as bad as the rest. Great orator like Trump but he did NOT a thing other than a fleeting Obamacare which most doctors refuse to cover. Bush started a drone program that well ... was shocking ... Obama massively increased it and to the tune of 5000 odd bombs being dropped on single nations. Trump, well ... he has increased it 40% even more.

Anyhow .... the peasants ... they just want decent healthcare ... people like Trump who has not paid taxes for 30 years ,,, nor has Bezos ... who the worlds richest man has paid zero ... Bloomberg is running as President despite slamming 5 million Blacks up against the wall and stop and frisking them. The world of a billionaire is a delusional one.

Sanders is called a communist for wanting a Medicare type system. For wanting to have like we have in Australia a tax system where the MORE yu earn the more you pay. Yes ... just like 99 out of 100 developed nations.

Bloomberg with 60 billion and the worlds 6th richest person and an income of 2 billion a year ... Objects to well ... Latinos ... Blacks ... Large serve drinks and believes he can buy the election much like Clive Palmer here. Sadly Bloomberg has the personality of ... well ... roadkill in summer 3 weeks after the event.

We sit here with 29 th Feb South Carolina Democratic vote and 2 billionaires have spent I suspect 850 million but Bloomberg entered late and Styer the Starbucks billionaire who welll ran all coffee purchases through Switzerland which produces NO coffee but its a great tax haven ... and Bloomberg love love loves the Cayman's .... we have Biden who is 148 years old and another of the USA type politicians who accepts donations from corporations to do their bidding is likely to WIN this single state. Or so the polls say. I am not sure about these USA polls as Sanders won Nevada 46.8 % to 20.2% to Biden and well the polls which merely had eventually Bernie ahead by 6% overall ... he won by 26.6%.

Corruption and Media ... relies upon advertising dollars and when you have insane amounts being spent, and by that I suspect close to a billion by Bloomberg alone ... of course it changes everything. AND it changes NOTHING.

One power a person in a democracy has, and its forgotten by the elites and Trump and Bezos and Gates and worse Buffet and Bloomberg ... are scum who have destroyed the middle class in the USA. Its gone.
That 65% cant even afford a $400- emergency ... that 25% RATION their medication and 33% delay going to a doctor because they cant afford it is a disgrace. A total disgrace.

Be very very afraid .... not our billionaires who bloody pay tax ... and say Forrest ... who is worth 10 billion AUD so 7 billion USD and to see someone just hit 160 billion USD ? Bezos .... speaks for itself.

Money ... has Bloomberg and the polls saying that the most racist and disgusting New Yokr Mayor and worse even than Rudi Juliani and that's saying something ... these polls say he has support of 19% with Black African Americans ... well ... we shall see.

I suspect, possibly ... we rally a day or two somewhere in there. Realty is the USA made tax theft globally possible. Until ... someone comes in and says NO MORE>

I dont know if Sanders wins, I suspect he leads by a massive margin.
I think Bloomberg is worse than Trump.
HE has no empathy for anyone and is against raising wages ,,,, against universal healthcare and his sole role is to STOP either Elizabeth Warren raising taxes or Bernie Sanders. He is trying to BUY the election.

He was NY mayor and bought the three elections he won. He spent 100 million in today's dollars on each.

Comparing say Andrew Forrest of Fortescue here ... a billionaire who just went there is 10 million for bush-fire people .... DELIBERATELY trains and hires Aboriginals ... is the leading force in global anti slavery and is a climate change supporter in every way ....

Bloomberg ... makes Clive Palmer look like a saint when he drove up to Parliament house in his Rolls Royce. Bloomberg however is surrounded by an EGO ... bigger than Trump and so many ass kissing people ...

Its going to be fun. I hope he fails to get 15% in any state .... ZERO delegates and has blown 800 million USD.

This next few weeks on the Democrat selection to run against Trump is going to be amusing and I think astounding. The debate that just went on, the audience ... paid $1,750 to $3,200- to sit there so ... well Bloomberg appears to have paid for all tickets and when Sanders spoke ... at times boo.s even when he was talking about things 90% of people want.... same for Warren ... Bloomberg who, well ... go find a rock with a dog poo on it and its more interesting, he opened his mouth ... clapping.

Basically ... the Democratic party leadership in the USA is so corrupt ... its stopped representing the people.

Possible it evaporates in 2020 .... as they try to sabotage someone who will cut off their political donations via rich and corrupt donors.

In a week .... all will be clearer.

To fix the pipes in Flint Michigan the LEAD pipes Bloomberg could have spent 55 million to do that instead of 800 million ... USD ... so 1.2 Billion AUD .... just in case having paid 10% tax rate for decades instead of 35% .... they will not try and take some back.

More I think about the likely USA mayhem as time goes on, the less it has to do with Australia.

CONV 19 ... Well if your over 80 ... its not good. If your under 50 the mortality rate is very low.
I note Mike Pence who is the vice President and a religious nutjob in the USA has been put in charge. This is a far right religious person who DOES NOT BELIEVE IN SCIENCE. By that he believes in creation and that we were created in 7 days. He denies climate science and in fact even ant VAXX ...

He is in charge ? Of Protecting the USA ?

I note Trump called the Virus a fake virus .... said during an isnane 60 minute ramble ... that he had been speaking for weeks to the team. He claimed only 15 cases in the USA. He was contradicted totally by the CDC prior to this and ... well he sacked the national security person meant to deal with epidemics months ago and did not replace them.

Possibly the orange fake tan protects him ... but the number of cases, a lie ... on his part with 60 not 15 ... and the CDC warnings its likely ... more than likely it hits the USA. Since Trump is 70 plus ... he is at serious risk. Cure or vaccination and having an Anti VAxx person who denies science and prays for the rapture ... VP Mike Pence ... well Trump seemed to think USA was immune and a cure was weeks away. CDC said at best .... 6 months .... likely 12 months ...

Enuf ...
South Carolina on the 29th Feb so Sunday our time .... polls seem to have Biden increasing his lead ... this despite him lying about being arrested with Nelson Mandela. or trying to visit him .... a total lie ... and having to retract it. Most voters around 59% of the Democrats there are African American. Basically the corporate media is against anyone who will tax either the rich or the corporations.

hence my cynicism ... and disdain. EAT THE RICH .... not our billionaires ... not all as generous as Andrew but they PAY TAX here in OZ.

I dont doubt Biden leads, he was leading by 31% a few months ago. Even I would be stunned if Bernie won this state.

Elizabeth Warren has sunk her ship. Sadly so.
Pete Butegieg is ... well .. as popular with non whites as hair found in food.
Styer ... will withdraw after Tuesday saving some face having spent 200 mio USD or 300 mio ...
Tulsi is still in but has no hope ....
Oh Amy .... well she has no hope, in fact none.

There remain 3 .... Biden ... Bloomberg if you believe the polls ,,, and Bernie Sanders.

I dont believe Bloomberg holds any chance .... in fact his full backing of Bush in 2004 and speaking at the Republican convention ... not the democratic one is the absurd thing about his running for anything after incarcerating hundreds of thousand non whites on NY ... is a joke. HE is patronizing, racist .... and so far right he makes Modi in India and the current orange Yam look tame.

Biden ... well ... he has zero chance verses Trump and his record of telling fibs .... is as bad a Trump.

If Bernie as I suspect wins 2020 ... well ... the insane near doubling to 3,400 n the S+P 500 will ... see it likely ... having a cow. It of course depends upon the senate and since the senate in the USA just did not impeach a person who clearly obstructed the investigation, and the people outside the top 10% are in dire straights ..... it is possible ... very unlikely ... but possible even in 2020 the Senate leadership changes to Democratic. God help the market if they have to pay tax.

Unlikely ... for a lot of reasons in 2020 .... even if say Democrats win ... be it Sanders or Biden and I hope not Bloomberg and very outside Warren chance. Likely ... mid terms 2022 possibly 2024 even if Democrats win and that's a big IF ... given the money against them winning.

Stranger things have happened.
Would be nice not to have the president threatening 3 different nations with Nuclear destruction.
Threatening all 28 EU nations and just hanging up on Boris on the phone in the UK.

This is NOT normal ...
It is abnormal and actually insane.

People wonder why others get trapped inside abusive relationships. This is the NEW abnormal. The world is actually suffering PTSD and Stockholm syndrome along with being codependent. Want a USA company to pay tax .... well we are going to impose 100% tariffs on you. Your wine sucks and USA wine is far better than French ranted the USA president. He is a non drinker. One moment I live you ... next I hate you .... your trapped inside an abusive relationship and instead of enforcing boundaries and say NO ... and telling them to PISS off ... all boundaries are gone. Love letters from a madman who executes people by using anti aircraft guns ? Yesterday in India another ramble and claiming 14 million Muslims in India now are 200 million. Since there were 100 million in 1980 and 13% of the population and now 15% of the population I was unable to find when prior to 1900 there were a mere 14 million Muslims in India. Trump said it was recent and I suspect since Pakistan was only split off in 1947 I would have to go back to 1800 for 14 million Muslims.

Strange times.
Sorry rambling but sharing my 2020 ... and next few weeks look into the future for what its worth.

Unlikely even IF Democrats win 2020 they get power of both houses so tax for the rich unlikely till 2022. Things however will change and radically even without this.
All the Trump removal of rules will be reversed.

Inserting times as always. As I type the USA had a 2% range at 3 am New York time on the 28th Feb..

Suspect also the central banks to ACT ... and act in a serious way. Act in a coordinated way. Ours to 0.5% or even 0.25% ... USA down by 0.5% if not more .....

Not all bad news.
Sadly .... for the non delusional ... the Revolution is under way and yep ... I suspect the peasants are revolting at last in the USA.

Have fun

 

[basilio]

The volatility of stock markets is having an affect on the players.
IMV I wonder when the pressures of juggling debt and responding to a brutally contracting real economy because of the corona virus finally hits home ?

Wild stock-market swings are ‘emotionally and intellectually wearing’ on Wall Street

Published: March 5, 2020 at 3:39 p.m. ET
By
Mark DeCambre
1,000 points here, 1,000 points there, and now you’re taking about real stock moves
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/h...-pace-for-its-best-week-since-2011-2020-03-04

 

[qldfrog]

I made the mistake of allowing show ignored post.
My phone screen is too small to scroll that much.
I am quite partial to rants myself but when posts are that long, i doubt this can be anything but garbage, in any case, no one will read it good or bad, get concise FFS

 

[basilio]

All ords down 243 points

I wonder how many stop losses have been triggered? I think margin calls would be coming in thick and fast.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

All ords down 243 points

I wonder how many stop losses have been triggered? I think margin calls would be coming in thick and fast.

11am ... another leg down

(the intra-day will confirm this)

 

[kahuna1]

CV19 is special.

MERS and SARS as some are aware was hard to spread, via one showed symptoms to be able to.
As such a perfectly normal person walked around and when ill, and only ill was infectious.

CV19 whilst WHO some may think dropped the ball, or China, reality is by 30 Dec 2019 weeks after first infection WHO despite being lobotomized by USA and cuts, issued its first warning then again 8th Jan and for the 5th time ever .... 30th Jan 2020 a full emergency.

Whilst having opinions.... facts verses actions and science dictates.
Why WHO declared an emergency was contained in the 30th Jan release. CV19 was twice as infectious as SARS and MERS ... and spread when no sign of infection was evident via symptoms making it whilst less life threatening than its closest relations, 10 times more deadly via diabolical spread rates.

I would agree, we have NOT even started, we are in act1 science one in relation to the impacts and ending of this event.

Each nation chose to act. Australia acted accordingly and whilst not berserk like others like South Korea even our March 1 total tests was 100 times USA response. they had done 2,000 tests for 329 million people, Canada and other similar.

With a vaccine a long way off, longer than I thought at 9 months till meaningful deployment and likely 12 or more, we go into hibernation for a long while. Globally still DENIAL is the common theme. Being locked up for 6 weeks will NOT stop outbreaks popping up again and again till a vaccine is out there. A Prophylactic or Antiviral agent that works if infected or the former protects from getting infected, is NOT going to occur sooner than a vaccine.

MERS and SARS were a massive hit to Asia but quite different animals. In the end via testing people who developed symptoms and only then became contagious the two closest relations die out on their own.

SARS did get a vaccine. SARS1, and not one spoken about much because despite an awful mortality rate the vaccine was WORSE than the virus itself so to be blunt that's bloody hard when it already was deadly. Of course we are 2020 and not 2003, still without time and to see side effects and all of them via new vaccine or therapy, its clear any shortcuts will and likely will be a mistake.

The world is in two camps, economically and socially with developed nations. A displayed indifference for the welfare of the masses and those who are NOT. At this time. already strained relations are going bust. Stealing masks of one nation off the Tarmac or hijacking, paying 300% in cash for something already paid for is NOT going to help. Attacking China and we all have faults, their system and choice of goverment did as best one might expect being rational in sharing the new bug .... WHO releases show that and the timeline.

What we did and other nations did and cope is sadly displayed, with living horror in one case. Social norms of kissing on the cheek and CV19, early cases via large populations can even under normal rates see 1 person at them infecting 3 every 5 days ... in 50 days that's 59,000 infections.

We love om a word where science is denied. In fact if it doesn't suit us, attacked. CV19 really does have no political party and really cares not at all about BS.

It lives happily inside us at 37C and lives well at much greater temps. So expecting it to go away or be defeated is an absurdity. Shut up peasants BACK to work for $10 an hour !!

I am happy not to live in such a place. Of course most will deny till their face turns blue and not about to waste time of effort with them. Canada right next door to the USA, first infection 4 days after USA acted quite differently and society and tax much like our own. If one multiplies their population by say 10 you have the USA. USA magically claimed it knew, actions speak far louder as do now even crries to get back to work peasants.

This virus is a game changer globally. We will emerge, low debt to GDP adding 50% MORE will still leave us at HALF m0st nations totals and overall including tax we collect from rich and poor a total with super of around 38% tax. NZ our bestie similar .... EU nations same but mush higher Debt levels. They however took the effort to REDUCE post GFC, face ugly choices as did we, higher contributions for many latter retirement age and slashing payouts on some pensions.'

Eu same thing and our budget was to balance this year ... EU has been doing so for 8 years.. USA well ... a 5% Deficit 10 years post GFC ? and tax not slightly rising but tax cuts that went 92% to the top 10%.

Golly gee ,,,, they like all others .. will take a hit. Will the peasants go back to work ? Will the world endure a nation likely to be 30 trillion in debt over a much lower GDP size than now so likely 160% Debt to GDP and a mere 12% likely being collected in tax ?

Who will nations lend to ? An EU one average at 135% debt to GDP and 40% tax .... or one with $160- and $12 income but wanting to spend $20-

Trump and he is no different than Obama and Bush or Clinton just wall street investment bank types of a different color. They DEMAND you lend to them

I am sure the French region hardest hit will forget 20 million masks taken from the Tarmac as will Germany and Canada .... having expected supplies ... stopped.

In the GFc 3 banks came clean and declared they were in effect broke .... late 2007. Same assets identical bonds on every banks books and ... as such if one was marking them to market and the the rest ... were also broke. Market reported 5% plus GDP growth that week ... really ? Market did fall ... 15% only to recover as all is well was trumpeted to 3% off all time highs. On and on and ON it went. The problem was in plain sight at the start. Amusing to get a billion into AMBC the bond insurer when it had 10 billion in losses it had already ... it got an AAA rating just like Australia which had NO federal debt not a cent and AMBAC was broke 9 months latter.

Expect the same, in fact, WORSE. China relations were poor with USA and so too every other nation either bullied or stolen from by USA sponsored tax theft. Australia did better than most and got about 20% of the tax Google took via 472 million settlement. The USA tax cuts halving USA tax paid is the sole reason why USA stock rose above all others. NO other reason ... or other than state protected tax theft that saw USA threaten 100% tax on French wines if they god forbid got Google or Facebook to pay tax.

Oh the world is changing and post CV19 ... all with HIGHER debt to GDP over a decade as in the past by prudent management it will be reduced. NO longer will the gloves be feather filled when discussing state sponsored and protected global tax theft. France will, nor will Germany ... tolerate it. Being polite and tolerating USA laughing at the Trumpist who really is not different from Obama who also was just a Treasury controlled by Goldman Sachs, so too Clinton Bush and on and on.

I have disgust and extreme regret for the common USA people and what their leaders and imbecile has done to them. Sadly with not much functioning free media and basically FOx news on every channel, even glancing at an adjoining country Canada and their CV19 results will not enter their minds.

Market for now, USA will deny ... dispute and well ... I am sure funding another 25% of the GDP via a slush fund to support non global tax payers will go down like Dick Smith float in future years.

Governments and good ones, and nations have billionaires and rich. Some inherit and some make it by brilliance. What defines and differentiates EU and UK and NZ and virtually all others is that they get taxed at a HIGHER rate and not a lower one. Not to penalize brilliance or punishment ... they pay their fair share. Some of our own billionaires I like, some I despise as the self serving people they are. BUT ... they PAY tax contribute to society and NOT play god and spend $876 million USD with a sole goal and thats to STOP tax to the rich. Bloomberg didn't even get a Tshirt for that.

Things, often take generations or events to change.
We have one that, well ... is unique and relationships globally already frayed are now I suspect shredded. No amount of apology will change recent events and even more racist comments via chief troll.

I cry for the lack of any comprehension or caring whilst denying CV19, doing NOT a thing, 2,000 tests and Canada compared did 100 times that adjusted ... its too late ... TOO LATE ... to advert.
Now its a victory if 100,000 die ? I like and respect and love Yanks, most with about 5,000 on the nose and likely more, a tiny fraction now rule.

Other nations, the NEEDS of the many outweigh the needs or need of the one or few.

We are, in not in denial, its often when inside an abusive relationship the awful becomes normal. Its like a dream, did someone just assassinate a leader flying to another nation ? Or did a nation politely ask and other with a spy plane over its soil, rather than shooting it down, to leave ? Did the worlds richest man never pay a dividend, never pay tax anywhere ?

Times they are a changing. Of course, resistance as the Borg say, is FUTILE. of course with every billion they possess they will sadly in the case of the USA expect and demand the rest of the world fund their debt, not ask even for pennies form their profits overseas and BOW ... and then fund their slush fund to bail out tax criminals.

Its going to be FUN to watch. TAKE THE PAIN NOW ... early and well ... a vaccine is not possible inside 12 months. As such, the impacts I gave are an AT best, and an at best impact in the stock market is not anywhere near current levels.

I note now the USA oil industry is to be bailed out via Tariffs and all oil at $60- a barrel because USA break even is that. Wonder who will bear the brunt and who will bear the benifits ? We and EU and most others already have petrol with massive inbuilt tariffs and stuff. Then again we have a functioning healthcare system ... we have decent roads, good education and good support if you get sick via income or loose your job.

GET BACK TO WORK .... NOW ... PEASANT ... I need my burgers .. the virus I defeated it at 15 cases and the rest is fake news.

See Donald when he announced 100,000 deaths likely, he spent 15 minutes talking about his ratings.
What a caring fellow he is. Amusing 7 minutes about how we love his wife Mealaiananan .. whoops Ivanka. Oh boy ... they started with a C grade movie guy Regan and now a game show host and slum lord running the effort Ivankas pretend Husband JJJJAaaarod,

NOW .... clean my boots ... BOY !! and that racists term is for anyone non Trump like of any background race and creed even white dumb folks called Kiwi's whoops ,,, Ozzies ...

Find a rock and HIDE in a financial sense. What is left standing in 12 months will not resemble o matter the governments efforts what is standing today. As yet to be reflected in stocks let alone eventual mayhem from overseas and peasants refusing to serve Trump his burger and his tantrum.

Upside ? well we just had the dead cat bounce !!

My worst case, outlook is NOW my best case result 14 days latter. Of course we are miles away from a best case low and worst case ... is well .... I dont want to think that far ahead.

Doomsday preppers seem sane right now so ... well if that's true even for an instant, golly !!

 

[sptrawler]

For anyone who is feeling down about things, or if you know someone that is struggling, there is help available, reach out and ask.
https://www.beyondblue.org.au/the-facts/suicide-prevention/worried-about-someone-suicidal

 

[sptrawler]

With regard the thread 'Top of this cycle', I think we can well and truly pencil that one in.

 

[kahuna1]

We sit ...
And patience is needed.

USA in total denial as per normal much like early 2008 if not worse.I find it surreal to see the USA response was about bailing out companies and ignoring the people.

Sadly so.I dont expect change, its too far gone. Biden is much like Obama and Bush and Trump. Same ... goals. Not a thing to do with the common good just the few.

TO see USA act overseas and treat its great people with equal contempt was evident prior to CV19.
A vaccine is a long way off at best.

USA locked down last, has the most infections and wants to re-open first.
Despite an awful toll its learnt nothing. Not a single thing.

This article sets out the actions and timeline.

https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/polit...america-982944/

USA and with Trump as the leader, has no patience and NO respect for science or humans other than their own self interest.

CV19 is a virus, no feeling and in fact a pathological desire to replicate. Much like Trumps pussy grabbing.
Sadly the virus eats stupid idiots, bigots and spits them out with ease.

Some Republican states who really did not full close down, infected at worlds worst rates just opened up fully for business. Georgia and by Monday you can go to the movies, get a tattoo, and everything is back to normal.

In the meantime, those not in the top 20%, all benifits and goverment help is missing in action. Either you work, or you starve. Sadly the imbeciles who demand this will likely have very low paid workers preparing their food, living likely in cramped houses with many and .... well ... stupidity as Boris from the UK found out does not make you immune to CV19.

Strange to watch the end of an empire and the total denial by a delusional dictator who gives himself 10/10 for his actions.The rest of the world, struggles with CV19 and one thing has changed. USA, once a great nation, is now the fool one sits in the corner and tell them to shut up. The world, forever changed, well not quite. I note Mr Potato head PM Morrison now parroting Mr Trump and right wing ideology word for word from Trump ... who parrots Fox news or Sky or the Australian.

Sadly ... despite doing a better job with CV19 than the bush fires, it seems .... we are just muppets for Mr Trump and his policies.

Since MR Trump is encouraging them to go back to work, I am sure the CV19 will respect his wishes. Trump actually said today he thought the virus might go totally away in 3 months. I thought he said that 3 months ago and well ... likely 100,000 deaths this time ... didn't make him blink, lets try again ?

Congratulations Mr Morrison for your lackey status. Maybe another White House dinner and we can put you, Mr Morrison, in quarantine for 2 years ?

Sigh ...

Patience and sadly all will be revealed.

 

[kahuna1]

Been thinking ...
which is dangerous,
Having studied the USA healthcare system for many years and ... well ... given up on its lack of humanity, its met a foe that will alter the USA.

USA about to hit 1 million CV19 cases. That is assured very soon. Deaths at 54 k and USA rubbish models have them stopping at 67 k and none beyond the 3rd July, ... all done by self interest healthcare industry types or far right people ....

Minimum deaths USA first wave 128k by 30th June 2020.Cases reported over 1.6 million

Since USA has seen fit not to cover people for wages ... or support ... only bailed out industries, you may have noted massive lines at food banks because people are literally starving. Either work or STARVE ...

No choice .... some states like say Georgia only fully locked down on the 3rd April opened back up partially 24 th April and fully open 27th April.

Similar for Texas and Florida and 19 other States.
Literally the leaders only concerned about their share portfolio could not give a damm about the people. Nothing new there.

I didn't expect change and media driven by advertising dollar, politicians by political donations and lobbyist .... rich got not one but two tax cuts so far in 2020 ... in the midst of a pandemic.

For the 11 million illegals they have no healthcare and no support via unemployment ... they go and get hospital care or a test and it runs into the chance ICE will deport them. For another now 86 million have NO healthcare ..... 80 million awful Medicaid and even those with medical insurance only the test is covered. Most have things called deductibles and at around $3,000 then co payments .... of $1,500 - the first $4,500 each year is on them,

Amusingly no media will cover this in the USA or anywhere else. Put against a virus, that really does not care, much like Trump and in fact 95% of the USA leadership both sides, a perfect breeding ground for CV19.

As such, I believe USA not only will hit 1.5 million infected but without much doubt 3 million. Deaths and not counting the ones they dont count will top ... wait for it ... 250k by end of 2020.
Easy math. Person even sick either starves or works. Working when highly infected is never a good idea other than in the USA.Of course USA stock market seems to think its business as usual and all will be bailed out. They have to some extent and even healthcare companies raising premiums by 40% next year is to be accepted.

None of this is rocket science when USA is adding 35k new CV19 people a day officially and likely double that ... outside it.

At say 1.5 k deaths for the next 35 days till end of May ... its up over 100k and say 130 end of June 2020.

If they think because Mr Trump has a new cure, Malaria drug that killed more or now bleach and its safe .... they are to be pitied.Clearly .... if they go back to work without testing and testing MORE than any other nation because ... STUPID ... they are the most infected nation on the planet, things will NOT go well.

Vietnam killed around 64k Americans, its assured CV19 is double that Yes some sadly would have died but less than half the June total of say 130k if they acted, without stupidity, extreme arrogance and contempt.

Nothing ... saddens me more than what they have done, and are about to do. Yes lets get a haircut and since CV19 is 5 times more alive and well in the USA than here, I find this astounding. Lets get a tatoo or your nails done !!

I have never seen a nation decide to kill 150,000 more people.

Then again USA real life expectancy using the correct one for Latinos is 75 not 78.6 .... so on average 329 million people lost 8 years of life verses Australia since 1980. All so Mr Gates didn't have to pay tax nor Buffett or Bloomberg or Bezos.

This however ... is open as opposed to smearing statistics. Possibly the toll will be VASTLY higher than my numbers.

It will not be lower end of 2020.
Leaders of USA and CEOS dont care.

Get back to work and work for shitty healthcare coverage if your lucky, but work and die in vast numbers they will.
One salon ... hair salon .... one infected cutter they infect 3 other workers and then they cut 10 a day ? Go forth and multiply. The person making your dinner ... is likely living sharing with many others, with no healthcare or awful cover and wow ... gee can I have a sandwich with the works ?
One of course is a human tragedy. Another is the world watching with disbelief.

Lastly and least important is its effect on equities and the economy in the USA.

I always find it cheaper to not fill the tanks when I go flying and actually ... not use the brakes when going down a steep hill when driving.What is stunning is the carnage already caused in the USA is being met with quite idiotic media and corporate self interest cries to go back to work mixed with workers being blackmailed via no support and needing desperately to work and ... well ... die.

This is not going to be even close to any experience post 1800. Whilst I suspect most nations will fare as well as can be expected, some like USA and UK .... those two are heading for the bleach and cups to drink it from.

Patience and CV19 is very very patient with idiots.

Minimum deaths USA first wave 128k by 30th June 2020.Cases reported over 1.6 million

DOUBLE it for end of 2020 !!!

 

[kahuna1]

Following mainly about oil .... asked for a view ...

For what its worth


**********************************************************************
Howdy ....

Well its Sunday in the USA and as per normal no reporting of deaths or people with virus .... hence the sudden drop ... each Sunday same stuff.

Agreed they have massive issues for some time. Basically they don't care. Its only about white .... old rich people and CEO's .... nothing else.CV19 has a gift for them ... I note one of the main people and groups is led by Koch Brother Heritage foundation along with many other large self interested groups.

OIl .... oooh ... well technology and USA allowing the dirtiest of all oil to be produced .... Tar Sands in 2006 when George Junior declare it legal and Kyoto went out the window added part of USA's current stuff all stance. Other is of course new technology and shale oil being able to drill sideways and again no oversight and all environmental rules gone .... so they can frack till they bleed and do so.

Both very expensive and energy hogs so a nightmare for environment but, well .... they don't care ... about that.

We did have peak oil .... some time ago ... Peak Traditional oil ... that is vs a non traditional oil production say shale oil or tar sands. By opening tar sands and then fracking there now is about 150 years of supply. More than you think .... because old oil fields with tight structures ... well now you can frack them and drill and then fracture the structure and get close to 95% of the contained oil out over time.

This .... has come at a price and around $60- USD break even for this new production and the traditional oil is getting more expensive as well for the USA as its more than likely off shore verses onshore and that comes at a higher price.

USA oil production last time I looked massively up .... around 15% of global production and that's 15 million barrels a day. I think they still use somewhere near 20 million barrels so they do import .... but far far less.

Basically the USA and its reliance on imported oil is massively down. Demand globally despite some decent growth has been very little. Tiny in fact and the USA extra production has produced a glut. there already was a glut post 2010 ....

More efficient cars and so on.

USA response was to let Libya get invaded and cut their supply ... when that didn't work ... invent a reason to cut Venezuela off ... and since they have the largest reserves .... and Koch brothers got .... a refinery they lost there, revenge works ... well it didn't and there was no crisis ... but now there is one due to sea blockade and embargo .... Cause and effect back to front.

Still not enough.... so invent a crisis with Iran and they were complying with inspections for nuclear side, much like Iraq was when USA claimed ... WMD's but none were found ... and yet another oil supplier cut off.

Basically ... if at some stage Libya sorted itself out ... adds more supply ... Iran sanctions eased or ... better still the rest of the world Ignores the USA and its policies and then demands nuclear inspections and compliance .... its a good thing for everyone in the world. Venezuela and whilst not a fan of these regimes in Iran or Venezuela ... USA is run by a dictator who is just about to kill 150,000 more Americans.

Bottom line, USA really does not care about life .... for any nation and its own self interest is not about the people who would benefit from cheaper oil, its about the donations of the Koch family and oil interests.

USA has been trying to goad Iran into acting and taking out Saudi Arabian oil and the rest of the gulf ... which given the sociopath in the the White house is still on the cards.

If we just remain here, no change .... there is a massive already over capacity on the supply side. Yes traditional well will run out over time, but things now not operating due to low prices such as the tar sands of Canada will resume at say $60- USD a barrel and as such the topside barring a war event is limited for say 5-10 years ... and unlikely without massive currency devaluation to rise too far for too long up above say $70- USD.

That USA is run by self interest groups and ... well the 0.1% .... anything goes and that a million die in Libya ... so what. Oh they got NATO to green light that one ... Asked to leave Iraq after murdering an Iraqi militia leader ... USA said no ... oh and the Iranian General there as well on an official visit to Iraq Prime minister on his invitation .... Poof ... your gone.

Not sure any of this is relevant given the extreme events of late and USA acting more like a regime under a dictator and its genocidal actions to its own people and to basically every other nation as they go USA first, post CV19 ... I suspect the world stands united against USA and its self interest.

Then again ... who the hell knows.

I note and have noted a lot of hot air about fracking and whilst CSG ... coal seam gas is fracking a shallow coal deposit which is ABOVE the water table ... and as such the nasty chemicals they use can and do often seep into the water table, oil fracking is DEEP ... below the water table and as such risk of contamination is close to zero. Then again, most amusing have no idea when they write articles about the risk. Of course fracking does seem to cause earthquakes .... due to fracturing underlying structures and so on.

Where to from here ? Oil ... well with every tanker and storage tank at full and capacity, cut supply a mere 10% ? .... its NOT enough. Air travel unlikely to resume in any meaningful way in 2020 .... and subdued other demand so that ... stored up oil and what is still an oversupply of at least 10% for now verses demand ... needs to be shut down.

Compliance as always is an issue and OPEC members have a vast history of lying.

As such, nothing compelling for now about oil. Sure it may double .... it may halve .... but that over supply hang is still out there. For some OPEC members their reliance upon oil money is dire and ... well ... some can produce at double the rate they are today.
Hope that helps ?


Who knows .... its a seriously nutty world and I took my loss on the single oilier I had. I do not like the optics longer term in the say 2-3 year region with oil likely to be subdued for some time and their needs and financing .... requires much higher oil prices. Some seem to think this will go away, oil .... with CV19 .... but sadly ... the oversupply side has been going on for some time.


Have fun

 

[kahuna1]

Hi,
I wish I had the answers.USA basically bailed out the big end of town.
Small people have a choice, work or starve.

You may have noticed reports the virus has mutated ? It has and whilst still not peer reviewed enough there are virtually no dissenting views. None of value.

USA is testing at 240k per day and getting 10% positives.
Italy and France and Spain getting 2% positives and Germany 1%.
Australia and NZ a very different scenario and we are getting 0.1% or 1 in a 1,000 positives.

You may have noted one of the best medical systems Singapore has lost control .... with infections. It has hope of getting back on track.
USA has no interest in this. Remdesivir does not work, flat out does not ... nor did the malaria drug .... nor bleach ... or whatever BS Trump or UK Boris may push.

It is draining to listen and watch. Both, well Trump has a mental disorder. A mere month ago it was back to work for Easter. Easter Sunday seems like 50 years ago but was April 12th 2020..
USA has had 800,000 more infections and 50,000 more deaths.'

Today, to distract you ... Trump is again claiming victory and its safe mulling over when to disband the virus task force when the virus has mutated into something that spreads more quickly !!

I would prefer to be an optimist but I am not delusional. USA at 24,000 infections a day and more than Italy ... needs to be testing for 330 million at 500k plus a day. If not more.,
This new strain is looking like its one that possibly one can get time and time and time again. I hope not, the virus is new and data is new so we hope not.

Since Trump congratulated himself at 4,000 cases ... and now at 1.2 million doing it again, deaths and infections seem not to matter. They do however to those not in the rarefied air of Trump tower.

I note UK and USA now claiming to be doing a trade deal. Since the UK has yet to even agree on Brexit final details, and Boris ... like Trump looking like an idiot for CV19 ... this is absurd. A trade deal with a nation 6 hours away via fast jet ? This to one side, these deals are complex and take years. Years because they can breach other deals and well without Brexit with the EU ... its impossible to do any deal

Australia and our dear NZ friends likely go close to getting rid of this Virus. Fingers crossed. Download the app ... Google can locate you within 1 meter at all times and half the apps you have on your phone have GPS turned on ...

This said, the road out will still be tough for Australia. No overseas travel for 12-18 months ? A vaccine and one especially coming form the USA without TIME and clinical trials stages 1.2.3.4 ... takes TIME> shortcuts lead to ... worse outcomes. Try the Bleach first !!

USA narrative is via Trump ... and corporate media on the main its safe. Being locked up for 27 days ...EU nations for 50 ... does give you zero immunity. Less so for USA. Neither for Australia but with zero new cases for say 14 days ... then 28 .... I will be feeling quite safe. Still no overseas tourists, no students .... and well ... the rest of the world is in a far worse place.

UK reported 97% fall in car sales ... yep sure one month.Its cases have as yet to peak ... so its not coming out of lock-down in May ...
Just sticking to cars ,,, so another poor month of sales.After that ... sure some pent up buying but twice as many without income or worried about it and their job future .... hmm at best for the year car sales down 2 months ... bad 97% and then say 70% and a few at minus 20% .... and then the rest at minus 10% .... down 20% plus year on year ?

Then take say ship building ... no cruise liners being ordered .... no tankers ... not with oil well below break even ... as for the absurd USA tech prices ... business will use windows 3 version from 1996 ... rather than the latest ...

Las Vegas ... golly ... it only exists for tourists and if its open again, well ... unless your mad ... down 70% this year ? I know Trump idiots are just that but ... maybe a bit better ... but it will be a smoking crater at best.

Fed and Trump .... gave one massive tax cut to the rich already ... bailed out the big end of town and ... well ... ignored the small end. Not sure what the small end will do with 500,000 deaths by end of 2020. That's the top end of my numbers. Likely with extreme regret its 250k. Around 128k by June 30th 2020.

These are humans. As yet, there has not been time to reflect and dwell on many counties in the USA, large ones .... not just NY but ones in New Jersey and Connecticut with 2.5% plus infected. Insane levels 5 times Italy.

As always I reduce into rallies. Sometimes and ... at times like this, a miracle is not possible. Sorry but its a virus. Yes one cure may show promise and some being tested, are showing some improvements ... without awful side effects like Gileads Resmidivir. The mortality rate actually appears to be 150% of NOT using it but the USA just approve it for use without even a clinical trial that is blind tested .... they actually just removed those who ... were having extreme reactions and dying. The drug actually costs a mere $10- a day to make and say $100- .... is going to sell for USD $4,500 a course.
IT does NOT work ... never did. ...
Most doctors know this, but, well greed and the USA body overseeing the drug is ... controlled by paid for Gilead people. Some declared it ... most did not, people doing the study reported, paid for associates and one for over 20 years, not mentioned of course in the clinical trial study.

This is the world of Trump.

Pre GFC I was talking about stimulating the corpse and giving the cancer patient aspirin. That was Bush .... Obama was not much better. Just better PR. Under Trump ... no aspirin for the ill, just a nice shot of bleach.

I do have a secret cure for Covid 19 .... dont tell anyone ... eat asparagus ... then the real secret is drink your own pee. In fact bathe in it ... and if you can surgically get a catheter inserted into your nether regions ... and a bag with a straw so you can sip sip away. Bathing in it ... well it takes care of social distancing and if only these neo liberal arrsehhhollles ... would try my remedy they would too stop reproducing and since they have already mutated into a lower form, its solves many problems.

But keep it a secret and the Asparagus is key !! It makes it more pungent.

I await Trumps next magic cure or utterance. I do wish someone would dose him with my secret cure. Diet Coke Mr President ? A long list of these types needs my cure.

Since Mr Trump sat there a few weeks ago and awarded funding ... like Shark tank ... he sat ... heard their proposals and well one company which has NEVER produced a vaccine and NEVER produced a drug, but was convincing and promised action and testing within 2 months, MR Trump awarded them a company called Moderna ? I think ... USD $483- million. Please do not tell anyone about my secret cure.

I have high hopes of winning a bet that I can both get $100- million in funding and make the President of the USA drink my pee ....

I wonder what I will charge per course, its all natural ... strictly enforces social distancing and ... well if Gilead can sell something at 50 times cost and its sells another AIDS drug at 100 times what it sells overseas ... hmm .... $5,000 a dose ? Here Try some Mr Pence ... Mr Munckin ... I dont have enough pee for all of them !!

Better make it $10,000 a dose as they love something rare.