ALL ORDS went nowhere for 7 YEARS!

[qldfrog]

I like that chart in the link.

Indeed!!!

 

[skcots]

I am going with 4726.

 

[Smurf1976]

My thoughts are that we get a rally starting sometime soon and ending by the end of April. Not straight up for 3 months, but higher then than we are now. After that's done, then we go down properly.

I'm also thinking we're in for a broader downturn during the year. Commodities slump, floods or drought messing with agriculture practically everywhere, ASX wobbly, housing wobbly, a high profile business failure (Dick Smith). All little things adding up that isn't going to do consumer confidence much good. Not necessarily enough to put us in recession, but we'll see a lot of concerns about that I think.

No specific prediction for the All Ords from me, but I'm thinking up a bit then down more than it went up.

For the AUD my thoughts are that we end the year at about 60 cents.

 

[shouldaindex]

One of the most difficult things is deciding what to do when the -20% bear market is hit:

Hit -20% and NO Recession or Global Financial Crisis following: The last 5 times has resulted in an average of +22% in the next 12 months.

Hit -20% and A Recession or Global Financial Crisis follows: The last time resulted in -26% in the next 12 months.

That's basically a 50% bet on a binary outcome, wowee.

 

[cynic]

Welcome back, so ya gave up using them coffee beans? Then ya had a year off (no guess last year) and now your back with the "vibe". The way things are going, you might just nail it. Man that's going to wipe out a lot of Mums and Dads and their super.

I use the "tummy rumblings" method myself but I have been wrong so often I'm going to visit the Doctor and get a checkup. Cheers mate!

Yep! The supermarket sold me a dud. I guess that's what happens when you buy plain label coffee. From the sound of your tummy rumblings it seems that you might have copped a bad batch as well. Still, I can always use E Z answer squirrel as my avenue of last resort.

 

[Bill M]

Good Evening and welcome to the year end wrap up of the XAO.

The XAO closed today at 5719 up 7% for the year (or 375 points).

The XAO first hit this level on January 24th. 2007. So our market has gone nowhere for 9 years and 11 Months. We were just short of 10 years of no movement. It doesn't look that good but the dividends along the way with their franking credits certainly helped.

We had several members take a punt on where the markets might end up, here is their Dec 30th. 2016 year end picks with the lowest predictions first.

cynic 3900 most bearish pick
skc 4682
shouldanindex 4700
skcots 4726
junior 4850
poverty 5200
umike 5345
logique 5400
toyota lexcen 5500 Came equal 3rd. with triathlete
triathlete 5550 Came equal 3rd. with toyota lexcen
alterego 5683 Closest Pick and is the winner
systematic 5885 Came Second
bill m 5931

So how did you all go for the year? I did ok and added plenty of stock when the markets hit the 5,100 levels. I am looking at off loading a parcel at these current highs but have not done so yet.

 

[AlterEgo]

Wow, I won! Looks like that guess was very close - XAO was only at that value 2 days ago! I'm very surprised that my guess ended up being that close, as all it was based on was a linear regression line of the last several years of data extrapolated out to the end of the year.

 

[Bill M]

I'm very surprised that my guess ended up being that close, as all it was based on was a linear regression line of the last several years of data extrapolated out to the end of the year.

Well done mate, are you going to have a stab for 2017? I'm going to have a go and stick my neck out.

I am guessing that on 29/12/2017 the XAO will close at 6137. Anyone else?

 

[Logique]

Thanks for keeping track of that Bill, and well done AlterEgo!

To be fair, since early 2009 the XAO has actually been going somewhere.

For 2017 - I'll enter a finish at 6,500

 

[Toyota Lexcen]

yeah thanks Bill and good win AlterEgo

only rotated a few stocks around for the year, would like to take some profit if the market gets to 6000 in the new year

i enter 5,830 for 2017

 

[dutchie]

My guess is that the it will go to a high just short of 6000 and then by end of year be at 4700.

 

[AlterEgo]

Ok, I'll guess 5762

 

[pixel]

6085 at the end of 2017
guesstimated from non-linear trend since March 2009 as the mid-point between support @5500 and resistance @6600 with a slight upside bias and assuming that Trump stuff-ups won't become apparent to mainstream US until later in 2018.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Sell high and buy low is still the best advice. It matters not whether the XAO is at 4000 or 6000. And hold shares that give a good franked divi when the XAO is at 5000. Who can predict the future? Not even Croesus.

 

[Bill M]

Sell high and buy low is still the best advice. It matters not whether the XAO is at 4000 or 6000. And hold shares that give a good franked divi when the XAO is at 5000. Who can predict the future? Not even Croesus.

Hi GG, good to see you around. Yeah I like your post and I try to do just that. I don't bother with individual stocks anymore, I don't have too. I buy ETF's that represent the Australian market and they pay very good distributions. So where the XAO is trading is quite important to me. I use certain levels that I consider good value. At the 5100 level it was good value and I accumulated 3 different ETF's. However at the 6000 level I am thinking about offloading a little and squirreling off some cash for the next dip. This of course will give me some tax free capital gains within my Super pension as well. All the best for the new year, cheers.

 

[Bill M]

So, anybody else willing to take a guess at where the XAO will finish by the last day of trading in 2017?

So far we have:

dutchie 4700
alterego 5762
toyota lexcen 5830
pixel 6085
bill m 6137
logique 6500

It's all for a bit of fun, no money involved. It will be interesting to see how the year plays out, cheers.

 

[Triathlete]

So, anybody else willing to take a guess at where the XAO will finish by the last day of trading in 2017?

So far we have:

dutchie 4700
alterego 5762
toyota lexcen 5830
pixel 6085
bill m 6137
logique 6500

It's all for a bit of fun, no money involved. It will be interesting to see how the year plays out, cheers.

I will take 5950.

 

[tinhat]

6555

 

[So_Cynical]

Good Evening and welcome to the year end wrap up of the XAO.

The XAO closed today at 5719 up 7% for the year (or 375 points).

So how did you all go for the year? I did ok and added plenty of stock when the markets hit the 5,100 levels. I am looking at off loading a parcel at these current highs but have not done so yet.

I have achieved a few personal milestones, income at a record high both markets and job, record largest tax bill ever and another first the ATO want me to start paying PAYG advance payments, obviously they expect me to have yet another bumper year.
~

 

[Bill M]

I have achieved a few personal milestones, income at a record high both markets and job, record largest tax bill ever and another first the ATO want me to start paying PAYG advance payments, obviously they expect me to have yet another bumper year.
~

Great news, sorry about the tax though, ouch! You going to have a go at picking the XAO level for year end?