ALL ORDS went nowhere for 7 YEARS!

[So_Cynical]

Great news, sorry about the tax though, ouch! You going to have a go at picking the XAO level for year end?

OK 5760 a flat year

 

[Logique]

Interesting article, I'll add an image, once I figure how to do that with the new forum software. The image button only ask for a URL.

The big investment questions for 2017
By Patrick Commins - 2 Jan 2017
SMH: http://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/the-big-investment-questions-for-2017-20170102-gtkwq7.html

 

[Logique]

I'll add an image, once I figure how to do that

Here tis, sourced from: http://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/the-big-investment-questions-for-2017-20170102-gtkwq7.html - various 2017 predictions

 

[systematic]

6341

 

[Logique]

6341

At 10:15am - off the the tribunal with you!

 

[Bill M]

Here is this years picks as to where you think the XAO may finish up for 2017.

dutchie 4700
so_cynical 5760
alterego 5762
toyota lexcen 5830
triathlete 5950
pixel 6085
bill m 6137
systematic 6341
logique 6500
tinhat 6555

Good luck and I hope you all do well.

 

[systematic]

At 10:15am - off the the tribunal with you!

ha, i've had a few slow starts this week, after last week's festivities

 

[UMike]

You can add a ???? for me.

Sold alot near the end of last year.
Will probably sell some ANZ and WBC this week and have the finger on the button for selling some TLS.

Alot will hinge on "THE DONALD"

 

[Smurf1976]

Came across this which aligns with my own thinking pretty well. Australia isn't in a good situation right now. We seem to be doing considerably worse than, say, the US and there's a lack of anything likely to give our economy a boost.

Housing's tapped out. Not likely to have another commodity price boom from this point. Can't really have a commodity volume boom without investment that isn't happening. Weather has been reasonable for agriculture so can't really get much better. Etc.

http://www.primefinancial.com.au/a-look-into-2017-for-australian-investors-december-2016/

Thoughts? Am I being to bearish in my thinking here?

 

[Bill M]

Good evening all, here is the year end wrap up for the All Ords.

The XAO closed today at 6167 which was up 7.3% for the year. (Up 418 points)

The XAO first hit this level in April 2007.

So now our markets have gone no where for 10 years and 8 Months.

We had several members take a punt on where they thought the XAO would end up at the end of the year. AND THE WINNER IS ME!! (lucky I guess)

dutchie 4700 Lowest guess
so_cynical 5760
alterego 5762
toyota lexcen 5830
triathlete 5950
pixel 6085 second best pick
bill m 6137 Winner
systematic 6341
logique 6500
tinhat 6555

7% in growth and 5% in dividends just buying the market is not a bad result. I continue to hold high dividend yield ETF's in my portfolio. How is everyone else going? Cheers.

 

[Logique]

Well done Bill and Pixel.
Our group was more bullish than the big brokerage houses in the SMH article, and we were right. 7% + 5% is a good outcome for the Aus market.

 

[Toyota Lexcen]

congratulations Bill M,

be interesting the predictions for next year

over 10years your capital gone nowhere, terrible investment

 

[Bill M]

over 10years your capital gone nowhere, terrible investment

Yes it is but I keep telling myself that the XAO always gets to and surpasses previous highs. I'm just wondering how old I will be when that happens!!

 

[sptrawler]

7% in growth and 5% in dividends just buying the market is not a bad result. I continue to hold high dividend yield ETF's in my portfolio. How is everyone else going? Cheers.

I'm tending to move toward ETF's and LIC's, as a larger component of my SMSF, aiming at approx 20- 25%.
I tend to think the index has to move up, as mining recovers and the population boost, kicks in.
Picking winners, will become harder IMO, as the unknown effect of technology is felt by different sectors.
So I'm thinking, with requiring a steady income stream, i'll leave some of the research to the professionals.
But after six years of pulling a reasonable pension, I still have more than what I started with, so life's good.
As long as the health holds up.

 

[Toyota Lexcen]

same here sptrawler,

international and domestic

 

[Bill M]

I'm tending to move toward ETF's and LIC's, as a larger component of my SMSF, aiming at approx 20- 25%.

Just out of curiosity, what is your favourite LIC? I use the ETF, VHY mostly and I have been very happy with it.

 

[luutzu]

Yes it is but I keep telling myself that the XAO always gets to and surpasses previous highs. I'm just wondering how old I will be when that happens!!

Might be sooner than we think. Trump's (under)estimated $1.5Trillion in tax cuts to corporations and "job creators" will most likely lit a few rockets under the stock markets (and other financial assets).

So 2018, 2019 might be very good years. Then we might wake up to the reality that there's only so much value share buybacks can do for a business. That and unless the world's property markets does a GFC 2.0 and ruin everything.

 

[sptrawler]

Just out of curiosity, what is your favourite LIC? I use the ETF, VHY mostly and I have been very happy with it.

I looked at only well established LIC's with a track record, can't afford a catastophe, at this point of my life.
So being conservative, narrowed it down to AFI, MLT and ARG, then I just looked at what they were holding and worked out their dividend/price, I settled on MLT at about $4.58.
Having said that, I will be buying more LIC's/ETF's, to reach that 20-25% level
I'm guessing with the new Caps, a lot of SMSF are going to have to align themselves with the index to some degree, there isn't as much wriggle room with a cap.
Especially when you have a minimum draw down, that increases over time, a margin of safety will be required. IMO

 

[Logique]

For Calendar Year 2018, my XAO prediction is: 6,450

 

[Bill M]

For Calendar Year 2018, my XAO prediction is: 6,450

Good idea, lets throw our hat in the ring and try and predict where the XAO will be at the end of 2018.

I go for 6341