ALL ORDS went nowhere for 7 YEARS!

[Bill M]

Does anyone want to have a punt on where the XAO will end up by 31/12/2015?

I'm going first, I think the XAO will run up to 5,931 by the end of 2015. What do you all think?

Does anyone else want to have a go, just for a bit of fun? skc picked the closest last year, well done

Come on, throw in a number.

 

[McLovin]

6,200.

 

[Logique]

I'm not copying you Bill M., but I actually think XAO at 5,900 will be about right by 31 Dec 2015

 

[KnowThePast]

I'll go with 5,700.

 

[skc]

Does anyone else want to have a go, just for a bit of fun? skc picked the closest last year, well done

Come on, throw in a number.

Really? I won?



For this year, I am picking XAO to finish at 4533, with a low of 4182.

 

[notting]

Really? I won?

View attachment 61023

For this year, I am picking XAO to finish at 4533, with a low of 4182.

Hey SKC do you have a story? Guess BHP will have to get hammered a fair bit more and a bad year for banks, cause TLS will be strong. Debt funding issues because of oil countries defaulting?

 

[Bill M]

Really? I won?

For this year, I am picking XAO to finish at 4533, with a low of 4182.

Yeah you did, you came closest. Gee I hope you are wrong about the 4533 level. I'll end up having to change the title to "ALL ORDS went nowhere for 10 years" Yipes

 

[shouldaindex]

I'm looking for a bottom in the 4500s in the second half of the year.

 

[BeanJumbler]

Woah, two very bearish calls in the 4000s! Care to explain a little?

 

[craft]

All Ords made its entire gains for this financial year since open this morning.

Excluding dividends and Ignoring Currency devaluation and Inflation of course.

 

[skc]

All Ords made its entire gains for this financial year since open this morning.

Excluding dividends and Ignoring Currency devaluation and Inflation of course.

Apparently this guy is to blame.

http://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/...r-adam-cheng-says-stock-market-influence-just

 

[skyQuake]

All Ords made its entire gains for this financial year since open this morning.

Excluding dividends and Ignoring Currency devaluation and Inflation of course.

Sell on july 1st and go away, rebuy open of june 30. Nice new strat

XJO looks very similar as well

 

[Bill M]

Another year has come to an end and the All Ords has closed at 5,344 points, down 44 points or .8% from this time last year.

The XAO first reached 5,344 way back on 26th. of November 2006. This means the All Ords has now gone nowhere for 9 years and 1 Month.

The Santa Clause rally failed to appear and if it wasn't for the last 8 sessions before today we would be hovering around the 4,920 level.

Out of the 8 people that had a guess of where the XAO would end up, Burglar came the closest with his guess of 5,555, well done.

Where to from here? Anybody want to share their thought's?

Cheers for tonight anyway, Bill.

 

[systematic]

Where to from here? Anybody want to share their thought's?

...I'll always have a crack at anything like this (forecasting being against my investing philosophy be damned).

My wussy answer is that it finishes 2016 still in the 5000's. My punt is simply that it won't go backwards too far, will probably rise a bit...but it wont be a gangbuster year >20%. My punt for Dec 31, 2016 is 5885.

Happy New Year!

 

[Toyota Lexcen]

I feel 2016 going to be similar to last 6months of 2015 and end the year about 5500, very choppy

Just doesnt appear to be any confidence in the markets, people would question whether to buy and just sit on sidelines,

 

[So_Cynical]

Another year has come to an end and the All Ords has closed at 5,344 points, down 44 points or .8% from this time last year.

Where to from here? Anybody want to share their thought's?

I think i don't care where the index is, my IB account is up 36% over the last 18 months and my main portfolio is up 31.5% over the same period...i can only hope that 2016 is as good to me as 2015 was.

 

[Triathlete]

I do not think it really matters where the market goes but it does depend on your strategies that you use for your portfolio as to whether you can increase the value of or not.

Again your knowledge and skill level will have a bearing on this...personally the last 18 months have been good to me.


View attachment My Portfolio Lincoln 2016.docx

 

[shouldaindex]

Single digit moves have been typically an unlikely outcome in any given year, with only about 28% of yearly moves since 1900 having been between the ranges of -9 to +9%.

This makes the last 2 years an anomoly moving less than 1% in consecutive years:

2013 - 5353
2014 - 5389
2015 - 5344

No idea what will happen in 2016, but I've been holding a lump sum out since 2013 to get in on the other side of the cycle, which I think we'll see the bottom of by 2018.

US CAPE has been the dealbreaker for me, along with the things associated with it.

Also here's an illustration of the All-Ords, showing about a 50 / 50 split in the past 100 years of the ASX 'going somewhere' and the ASX 'going nowhere':

 

[Bill M]

No idea what will happen in 2016, but I've been holding a lump sum out since 2013 to get in on the other side of the cycle, which I think we'll see the bottom of by 2018.

Thanks for the interesting chart you posted. I had a bit of difficulty reading the fine print but I got the message. So you think the market will bottom out in 2018, how do you know this? What action will you take this year if the market goes up quietly towards 6,000 by year end? Would you deploy that cash?

I think we are seeing good value now and seeing the all ords has gone nowhere for 9 years I reckon we might be in for a surprise upwards.

I think the XAO will go up and my guess for where it will end up at year end is 5931, anyone else want to have a guess just for fun? Burglar, where are you? You were closest last year.

 

[Triathlete]

Thanks for the interesting chart you posted. I had a bit of difficulty reading the fine print but I got the message. So you think the market will bottom out in 2018, how do you know this? What action will you take this year if the market goes up quietly towards 6,000 by year end? Would you deploy that cash?

I think we are seeing good value now and seeing the all ords has gone nowhere for 9 years I reckon we might be in for a surprise upwards.

I think the XAO will go up and my guess for where it will end up at year end is 5931, anyone else want to have a guess just for fun? Burglar, where are you? You were closest last year.

You may want to take a look at Market Cycles theory to understand about where the market might be headed into the future

A good book to start with is

Merriman on market cycles...the basics
by Raymond A.Merriman
60 pages