ADI - Adelphi Energy

[Agentm]

i was given the understanding all three zones are supposed to be equally charged, and equally prospective.

Zone 1 was given the most attention so far, its very very early days.

in the presentations they specifically say that zone 2 and 3 are definately still on..

 

[Lucky_Country]

How long is a piece of string?
I fully understand why the delays but what is frustrating is not knowing when we will get results each time I think we get close another story for a delay!
Horizontal drill into each zone frac then flow test how hard is that?

 

[Agentm]

devon presentation a few years back, gives you an idea of the size and scope of a full field development

http://petersco.com/whatsnew/Devon Jan 07.pdf

CUM. YEAR 2005 (BCF)
Top Ten Texas Gas Fields​

1. NEWARK EAST (BARNETT SHALE) 497
2. CARTHAGE (COTTON VALLEY) 214

3. GIDDINGS (AUSTIN CHALK) 106
4. OAK HILL (COTTON VALLEY) 98
5. FREESTONE (BOSSIER/CV) 81
6. SPRABERRY TREND AREA 79
7. WASSON (SAN ANDRES) 78
8. SAWYER (CANYON) 75
9. BALD PRAIRIE (COTTON VALLEY) 55​

10. FARRAR (COTTON VALL 53


when you see that conocphillips and TCEi estimate the potential in zone one to be as substantial as >3 tcf , without the two zones added, it becomes evident why they are taking their time researching everything, making sure all is done meticulously and accurately, and the upside is perhaps a top 5 spot in texas for the field.. happily holding for the upside good news story, but also would like some good news soon..

patiently trying to hold here!!


i remember at the agm being said 6bcfe per well.. this is looking more interesting imho by the day
​

 

[Evangeline]

Very quiet here atm...any word on Kunde 3?

Interesting how AUT's sp is holding up the best in the current news blackout. Nice 100k order on the bid this morning.

Agreed it would be good to get some news real soon!

 

[Agentm]

the AUT order has been there for days, below that there is nil.. EKAO has a 1 mill order there also then zip below it.. EKA has no orders to speak of.

ADI has mild support in the current price bracket imho. it fluctuates up and down..

there is little the jvp's holders can do. until the operational news is announced the buyers are going to show little interest, its great buying opportunity, but the sp is decreasing on tiny volumes, so IMHO its not a sign of anything untoward, its a case of no news and therefor no ability for the share to gain any value, so the buyers are smart and the sellers, if your unfortunate enough to have to sell now, they are not getting any good value at all.

whats about to happen in terms of news is a different story of course, i am waiting for the jvp to announce some insights into what its currently doing operationally. its possible for any of the following news stops/senarios to play out in the coming days.

SL1 flow tests Zone 3 results announced, maybe positive maybe negative

Kunde 3 frac tests and flows (confirming commercial horizontal wells producing in identical formation for the JVP)

Kunde 2 is Frac tested and flows in what i believe to be Zone 3

longer term in terms of weeks, i see further results of kunde 3 coming, and that should start the action on the jvp deciding what to do in the future imho.. and kennedy will be fraced as quick as they can afterwards, once they know how to best approach the frac..


but it sure is very quiet around here..

Lucky_Country, in terms of how long things take on the horizontal, i wonder if they should rename the wells as follows

Sugarloaf 1 - Eternity 1
Kennedy 1H - Eternity 2H



it sure has beena long time, i noticed kunde 3 was equally long, and baker is doing alright.. but no record breaking wells thats for sure.

maybe there is something down there making the job difficult, so maybe think lateral and read between the lines a little.. imho if they finished the drill on time then there would have been cause for alarm, these formations are overpressurised. in a big way.. perhaps that has something to do with the delays! its enough to keep me solid in this share!!

 

[Sean K]

ADI has mild support in the current price bracket imho. it fluctuates up and down..

there is little the jvp's holders can do. until the operational news is announced the buyers are going to show little interest, its great buying opportunity, but the sp is decreasing on tiny volumes, so IMHO its not a sign of anything untoward,

Next technical support for ADI is down around 35 cents. Once it broke what looks to be critical support at 50, there was a high probability of a drop to this level. Now, on the way back up, 50 is likely to provide some significant resistance.

Fundamentally may be a buying opportunity, except it hasn't developed any fundamentals yet. Just seems to have exploration potential at the moment.

 

[Agentm]

interesting chart, i am no chartist, have to take what your saying on board.

My own view is that the down trend has limited days if the news from the region begins to filter through. IMHO there is more a possibilty of some great short term news flows in the kunde 3 and SL1 well results, but we have to wait and see. if they come through it may not reach the lows you mentioned

but my aim is to see the project through, risk reward,, we are still in the risk area as you rightly point out kenna. and on low volumes the sp deminishes,, i am of the opinion that with any news the jvp's will fire up rapidly and make healthy recoveries.

patiently waiting.. (as best as you can i guess)

 

[nioka]

i wonder if they should rename the wells as follows

Sugarloaf 1 - Eternity 1
Kennedy 1H - Eternity 2H

Why not;

Sugarloaf 1 -Groundhog 1

Kennedy 1H - Groundhog Revisited.
I can't remember the end of the groundhog day movie. Did they ever get to the next week? I got a bit bored with it and turned off. Can anyone help with the ending. It may be an omen.

 

[prawn_86]

Yep, seems to be a hell of a lot of talk and no action. Just like a lot of oilers.

I find it interesting that you see delays as a good sign Agent

 

[Agentm]

its just my own view,

i look at it this way, if the formation dint have anything in it, then the well would be complete, but it seems that all the horizontals have had a heck of a time trying to get to completion. i think the wells are everything that conocphillips TCEI think they are. My investment remains as long as they are developing the field, and we know 16 wells are already planned..

i have heard a few stories on the kunde 3 wells, and i think kennedy is experiencing the same delays they did for the same reasons. Now kunde 3 was eventually able to be completed, and will test very shortly. my thinking is that knowing the formation we are in is identical to the formation kunde 3 is in, and seeing both wells going through pergitory to be completed, then as far as i am concerned, and its just my view on this, i think the possibilty of the formation producing at similar rates to the identical formation in the kunde wells is also on the cards..

after all, they believe this to be an extremely large overpressurized stratographic play with some amazing matix porosity numbers.. these wells are kicking back and making life extremely difficult for the operator.

i dont think anyone relishes these delays at all, but i believe the major holders are holding and dont give it much thought really. the big picture stuff is what we all hold for..

 

[gdaf]

question: a.Who owns the Kunde wells that are about to be tested
b. when will they be tested?
c. have you got some sort of illustration or confirmation quoted by the respective companies that shows the Kunde wells current due for testing are in the same formation (not doubting your statement, just want to see it for myself)

 

[Agentm]

most people would look at those questions and wonder what your asking..

i know exactly where your coming from..

The kunde wells are owned by conocophillips. with other parties in the well, I believe TCEI has a stake, and EME has a farm in (on the well only.)

EME announced the kunde wells would be tested shortly a month ago. so very soon imho..

re the same zone, this is mentioned in the quarterly:

http://www.adelphienergy.com.au/fil...ober 2007 - Quarterly Report 30 Sept 2007.pdf

The Kennedy 1H exploration well, located some 1,600m from Sugarloaf-1, was spudded on 17 September and is designed to test the uppermost zone of the Austin Chalk Formation – the same zone that is productive in the Sugarkane Field discovery well some 8km to the west. Kennedy 1H is the first horizontal well targeting the Austin Chalk within Adelphi’s Sugarloaf leases and its 5,000 feet horizontal section is designed to provide critical reservoir data.
illustrated in the sept presentation: slide 9

http://www.adelphienergy.com.au/fil...lphi Investor Presentation September 2007.pdf


thats how i see it.. hope it helps

 

[Trader Paul]

Hi folks,

ADI ... looks like the lows will be confirmed over the next couple of weeks,
as some VERY POSITIVE cycles come out to play:

06-13122007 ... steady lift in prices, as market
anticipates the good news ... ???

14-24122007 ... strong rally, as 3 positive time cycles take affect,
with positive news expected, on the summer solstice 20122007 ...

January 2008 should see underlying positive sentiment
for ADI, until about 25012008.

happy days

paul



=====

 

[tomcat]

Hi folks,

ADI ... looks like the lows will be confirmed over the next couple of weeks,
as some VERY POSITIVE cycles come out to play:

06-13122007 ... steady lift in prices, as market
anticipates the good news ... ???

14-24122007 ... strong rally, as 3 positive time cycles take affect,
with positive news expected, on the summer solstice 20122007 ...

January 2008 should see underlying positive sentiment
for ADI, until about 25012008.

happy days

paul



=====

Paul,

I have never really had a chance to look at how you model your work...you have been particularly right with ADI in the past, with Agent even wondering if you are god.

Hope you are...ADI could do with a little luck and some positives cycles, I think you are right though...news is just around the corner.

 

[Agentm]

Paul,

I have never really had a chance to look at how you model your work...you have been particularly right with ADI in the past, with Agent even wondering if you are god.

Hope you are...ADI could do with a little luck and some positives cycles, I think you are right though...news is just around the corner.

he is god... i am certain of it.. how can anyone post all those things and get away with it? if i posted that i would be a ramper.. we all know god isnt a ramper. therefor he is god!

thanks again for the predictions,, they match up perfect to what i think will happen.. how on earth you do it i have not a clue.. jesus...

ahh sorry,, i meant christ

ahh god i did it again.. jesus.. i mean hell i am sorry..

 

[Trader Paul]

Paul,

I have never really had a chance to look at how you model your work...you have been particularly right with ADI in the past, with Agent even wondering if you are god.

Hope you are...ADI could do with a little luck and some positives cycles, I think you are right though...news is just around the corner.

Definitely NOT God, Tomcat ...

..... just another sinner, using God's gift to all traders ... His own
cosmic clock and associated time cycles ... !~!

happy days

paul



=====

 

[mfunksta]

Anyone else wondering where the weekly update has gone? Great to hear that positive news is coming.

 

[prawn_86]

Lol, it always makes me laugh when co's provide consistent weekly updates.

Blatant ramping from management imo, as sometimes nothing at all changes in a week or even a month.

 

[Agentm]

mfunksta

i dont think adi are doing weeklies, they have told the market the kennedy well situation, so nothing to report really..

i agree prawn, some companies have used weeklies to blatantly ramp their finds, thankfully adi and this jvp never took that course at all, just kept the market informed of progress.

 

[Agentm]

kenna

how does the charting look with adi now.

i see two distinct upsides coming in the near term myself.

first one i see is the the immediate response to the kunde 3 well thats in the exact same formation a few miles west. if the well fracs as its expected to in the very immediate future, the upside on a great well will have a flow on effect imho.

the second one i think will follow or perhaps come with the first, that would be the conocphillips TCEI annoucing along with EME the play as a "discovery". and perhaps extrapolating a little on how they view the discovery.. again that news will have a flow on effect onto the jvp imho.

can the charts have indicators or trends earlier before such events are announced to point to expectations like this, do they indicate buying interest for instance?

dont know if read this thread a lot, but would be interested in your views..