Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

ADI - Adelphi Energy

hey mate, Yes AUT has a bigger slice of the pie so to say but the discrepency in price is most likely due to AUT having a lot more shares on issue.

You also have to take into account the recent C raising that finished well under subscribed (85%) meaning that the underwriters (Bell Potter et al) had to take up a lot of script which no doubt will be sold into the next run.
15 November 2007

“RIGHTS ISSUE – PLACEMENT OF SHORTFALL
Aurora Oil & Gas Limited (ASX:AUT, “Aurora”) advised on 6 November 2007 that the underwritten shortfall of 15.4 million shares under the Company’s 1 for 10 non-renounceable entitlement issue (“Rights Issue”) was being placed by the underwriters of the Rights Issue.
Aurora advises that this placement (“Placement”) has now been completed and that 15,426,633 new fully paid ordinary shares have been allotted and issued to professional and sophisticated investor clients of the Rights Issue underwriters. “

http://www.auroraoag.com.au/docs/2007/AUT20071115.pdf
 
i thought i would add some info so you can get a picture of how many wells in the region are producing from or have produced from the austin chalks.

the red markers are producers, the yellow ones by and large are not, they were either shut in or are currently on hold pending frac.

in so far as the fashing field is concerned, there are wells there that have produced for 50 years from the edwards, they keep fracing up the well and only a few have been fraced in the chalks.. but its interesting that they have been productive outside the fault in the fashing.

the two sturken wells near by were drilled in the 70's, pre horizontal technology, they noted the chalks but back then the chalks were not considered as production zones..

meeks 1 i have mentioned before, drilled last year by pioneer, it tested the chalks and then immediately shut in the well.. there are actually 2 richter wells richter 1 and 5. they are just hard to see on the image.


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Kennedy #1H Well

Well logging operations over the open horizontal portion of the Kennedy-1 well have been completed and a 4-1/2 inch liner is presently being run to the measured Total Depth of 16,750 feet.
Interpretation of the logs indicates several extended zones of potential pay in the upper part of the Austin Chalk sequence. A liner is presently being run as the first step in an extensive fracture stimulation and testing program.
It is considered that the log results at the Kennedy-1 well are encouraging in their own right. However, this horizontal well represents the early stage in the appraisal of a new reservoir and stratigraphic play and will require careful selection of a fracture stimulation program to optimise the flow and recoverability of any hydrocarbons. As such, the test program at Kennedy is not likely to commence for several weeks.

Sugarloaf-1 Well

The well is currently shut-in and is preparing to run completion tubing in order to carry out longer term production and pressure tests.
Since the last report on Wednesday 14th November, gas and condensate production has continued to decline and gas, condensate and water flows became intermittent. During this test period gas was produced at a maximum rate of 387,000 cubic feet per day. A total of 51 barrels of condensate and 391 barrels of water (mostly frac fluid but with formation water being produced in the latter stages of the test) were also recovered over the period.
Analyses of the formation water are characteristic of a formation below the Austin Chalk and it is likely that the frac has penetrated to below the Austin Chalk target zone and is allowing water production into the well. Further well testing will be required in order to confirm the source of the formation water and hydrocarbons.
The Operator, Texas Crude Energy Inc. has advised that it does not expect further tests to be carried out on the Sugarloaf 2 and 3 (middle and upper) zones until the test on the Kennedy well has been concluded.
 
I like the sound of this:

"It is considered that the log results at the Kennedy-1 well are encouraging in their own right. However, this horizontal well represents the early stage in the appraisal of a new reservoir and stratigraphic play and will require careful selection of a fracture stimulation program to optimise the flow and recoverability of any hydrocarbons. As such, the test program at Kennedy is not likely to commence for several weeks."
 
I like the sound of this:

"It is considered that the log results at the Kennedy-1 well are encouraging in their own right. However, this horizontal well represents the early stage in the appraisal of a new reservoir and stratigraphic play and will require careful selection of a fracture stimulation program to optimise the flow and recoverability of any hydrocarbons. As such, the test program at Kennedy is not likely to commence for several weeks."


hey eva..

they have been saying that for some time, and its appearing again all of a sudden.. its really good to hear them continue to appraise it that way.

the 3 tcf equation for zone 1 over 200,000 acres becomes more and more a reality as each week from now on we will hear more and more good news from all the wells. If you thinkt eh SP was sitting at 1.20 on the expectation of the hosston sands, and we have a horizontal well about to go on production!!

With the amount of wells in the formation, and the amount producing the adi share far better value right now than pre the hosston sands stage of SL1 imho.

its great day ahead imho
 
Anybody notice the discrepancy in the ann:

"...carried out on the SL 2 and 3 (middle and upper) zones..."

now from upper to lower is SL Z1 Z2 Z3
so unless they were saying 2 is the second test and 3 the last tested zone

can be confusing... :(
 
i would like to discuss zone 3..

"Analyses of the formation water are characteristic of a formation below the Austin Chalk and it is likely that the frac has penetrated to below the Austin Chalk target zone and is allowing water production into the well. Further well testing will be required in order to confirm the source of the formation water and hydrocarbons."

either there is a natural frac or the frac itself went down into the next formation, they do chloride tests and each zone have distinct water characteristics.. so they know the formation water is not chalk water.. that is a good thing..

as q44 said

"No not necessarily. They have learnt a lot from it whatever and that is the reason for doing it. For example, they know that the type of frac they did went outside the producing zone into water so they can change the design. There may be more production in another part of the field. It shows more encouragement for the other zones.
Judging by the comments on this thread over the last few days I really do not know why the vast majority of people invest in something they do not understand. When a series of oil companies do so much appraisal work on several different wells whilst giving out limited information it usually only means one thing: They have a serious discovery, but getting full information in order to report it as such and get the true extent takes ALOT of time. If you don't appreciate nor understand this then do not invest and let the rest of us enjoy a less volatile share!! Thanks"

Yes the water is a problem, although it can be made less of a problem if it is coming from the same zone and you produce from slightly higher up in the formation or ensure you only drill into the upper part of the formation where the oil and gas is with a subsequent horizontal well.

It is very hard to say as if the frac caused it as the natural fractures may extend into the water formation if in the same zone. Water in the same formation as the gas/oil is less of a problem than one that might be infiltrating from another formation, as the water may well be at a higher pressure than the gas/oil. Therefore you will get more of it
. That is why in a previous post I said that you have to avoid letting your frac move outside the formation you are really interested in.
q44


its always good to get some insights from people with a little more industry insights..


if TCEi is still interested in zone 3, its because they have to eliminate all possibilities, and so far the well is showing them zone 3 is interconnected to a lower zone, but it doesnt mean the zone 3 is not in contention, imho it says zone 3 is still very much in contention. as is zone 2..


there is $100 mill in land grab alone,, i look at the areas and look at fashing and the pioneers fields on the edwards to the south, and i look at the leasing, its like 5% of the leasing we have seen with the CP TCEI efforts in the last 2 years.. this is, on the face of the massive leasing program , the makings of major discovery, and the kunde wells will be fraced soon, then kennedy then baker.. imho as the results come through on all of those wells, it will change everyones view on this jvp!
 
Imho this latest ann has been the most positive so far....kennedy is looking like a goer and zone 3, which was always a bonus, is not being ruled out.
 
I am convinced that SL1 will come good, TCEI is going well there. its not possible to write off zone 3 if its producing!!

kennedy 1H imho has every chance of becoming a great well, i am very confident all the right things have been done to make it a success. I remain of the conviction that the elevated readings were regions close to natural fractures, and i feel a successful frac will open the well up to these fractures.

i think zone 3 is seriously on the agenda again
 
Is the problem with zone 3 something to do with the screenout?....did this damage the formation, which is why they have let in water from the layer underneath?....is this why the flow might have petered out and the flow been intermittant?
 
re the zone 3.. all that is known by the JVP but not passed on as yet. There would be many theories on the water, it seems by the announcement the water is not from zone 3 perhaps. and they can trace it. so it makes zone 3 worth putting on production.. lets see what they do, perhaps they can pack the lower sections off and get less connectivity from the lower zones. its all unknown really, but they are trying to make a well out of it.

re kunde 3. its ready to frac according to EME, the secrecy is totally at the request of conocophillips. who are the operators of the well.

TCEI wouldnt ask the Cp guys to wait and let them frac first at Kennedy. IMHO and the way i hear it, kunde 3 is fraced and the TCEi guys will frac kenndy after.. as we all know. kunde 3 is ready to go any day, and i gather thats what will happen, next horizontal will be Kennedy 1H. But as the well is not completed yet and hasnt even got a workover rig there, i think you can expect to wait a few weeks..

kunde 3 will tell us what sort of results we can expect in the zone 1 sugarkane.. its not far off imho.. so next news will be as good as the last news..

btw eva, are you mainly a eme investor.. i notice you converse a lot there... sugarkane is an interesting discovery dont you think!!
 
what i don't understand is why are they fracing k3 when they have a natural frac of 600ft and 65ft flares.

if you have alook at BUR they are drilling in the austin chaulks,which have natural vertical fracs, they have two wells on production and havn't had to frac.

mick
 
:bananasmiFrom a " new " poster on ADVFN. His style seems to be identical to a prolific poster on this forum:-

€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€

Lance Baltimore - 21 Nov'07 - 09:06 - 4431 of 4484


"I've been watching from the sidelines for some time but haven't posted. Good thread tarz.

I'm fairly certain that a placement is imminent and I won't be buying until this is out of the way.

The problem Tom Kelly is having is that institutions are driving extremely hard deals on price at the moment and will negotiate down on any excuse. They won't be influenced by a short time rise after a positive RNS when the odds are the share price will then fall back.

I know oil workers in the SL area who have confirmed there is a chronic shortgage of rigs in the area and Texas as a whole. I understand eme have to release their rigs after the next couple of tests which means no forward drilling plan.":bonk:
 
mck, no one seems to want to discuss it, i will have a go if you like..

"The Austin Chalk is a brittle carbonate reservoir that outcrops across Texas and trends south-west to north-east. The chalk is made up of very fine, densely packed calcareous shells and is therefore an impermeable layer. In the subsurface the Chalk matrix has less than 3% porosity. Due to fracturing of the Chalk the porosity is increased by 2%-3%. It is mainly the increased permeability due to fracturing that makes the Austin Chalk a good reservoir rock wherever these fractured-zone “sweet spots” are encountered."

remeber couch oil and the jvps have all confirmed the overpressurised chalks have high matrix porosity, 9 - 12 %!!!


The sugarkane chalks are considered by adi to be:


"The Sugarkane area is still in the earliest stages of
appraisal. However, it appears to be over-pressured,
have relatively high matrix porosity, contain >150bbls
of condensate per MMCF of gas, and be vertically
fractured – all of which are strongly positive signs for
potential commerciality. The reason why the play had
been overlooked to date is due to the overall paucity
of wells on this trend, the fact that Sugarkane is some
20km south of the main Austin Chalk trend, and the
traditional thinking that the Chalk is a relatively low
productivity reservoir when compared to other reservoirs
targeted by previous wells drilled in this area."


and in respect to why they are fracing, unlike the giddings and pearsall where only natural fractures are the precursor for success, what your not taking into account is this i think:


"Based on limited horizontal drilling results reported
to date in a neighbouring lease within the Sugarkane
area, it would appear that vertical fractures have been
encountered there which would significantly improve
the flow potential and well economics of this play.
However, this still needs to be confirmed by production
testing and further appraisal drilling to determine
the existence of these fractures across the wider
Sugarkane area including the Sugarloaf AMI. This is

also one of the key objectives of the Kennedy-1H wel"


adi are implying that natural fractures would improve economics, and are not saying its the critical factor in success..



"It is worthwhile noting that vertical fracturing is a
crucial factor in the success of Austin Chalk wells in
the established fields to the north due to their relatively
lower matrix porosity in the Chalk when compared to
the Sugarkane area.
If the Sugarkane area proves to be successful, that
is if the horizontal wells deliver an economic return,
prospective reserves are estimated to be in the range
of 600 BCFE to 1 TCFE for the Sugarloaf AMI alone in

which Adelphi owns a 20% working interest."


i have been saying all along these chalks are unique, until you throw off your traditional hat and actually read and listen to what is being said its easy to miss, you cant compare giddings chalks to these, they are different, but these chalks are unique in that they can be fraced to produce, they may not nessesarily need natural fractures like BUR needs in all their wells.. IMHO the work done at Kunde 1 and SL1 is based on TCEi and CP trying to see if they can just fracturing a vertical chalks well, and be able to produce great wells.. its completely against the odds to produce commercial wells on the vertical, yet right now we have kunde 1 doing so, and SL1 is about to flow test zone 3 on the vertical.. most people seem to think this is all hot air, a fairy tale, and that the sugarkane is nothing at all. its only one third of the 3 zones of interest, with zone 1 being a producer and zone 3 about to be flow tested at SL1. remember we are talking verticals in the chalks here!!!




flintoff. your not even remotely funny.


all imho and dyor
 
e mail to ADI this morning came back with what i thought it woulkd say, however sounds like testing at SL after K1H is only..." if appropriate"
interesting........

FW: SL project
Date: Thu, 22 Nov 2007 10:50:31 +0800
From: "Chris Hodge" <chris@adelphienergy.com.au> Add to Address Book
To: cicak.biru@yahoo.com.au


M

There are no further wells planned until we finish the test of K1H and then SL (if appropriate).
Forward program will hang off those results and to some extent, the result of the wells next door being drilled / tested by EME.

Regards

Chris Hodge



From: M S [mailto:cicak.biru@yahoo.com.au]
Sent: Thursday, 22 November 2007 7:42 AM
To: Lauren Doust
Subject: SL project


Good Morning ADI,

Are you able to tell me what the forward programme for the SL AMI in which we are part off, following SL 1and K1H?

Are you planning further wells...? and what time schedule is any future plan likely to have...?



Many thanks M s
 
Is that Kunde 3 they are refering to as the well next door/owned by eme?

Why would it not prove to be "appropriate" to test S1....what are they saying....is it that if Kunde 3 and Kennedy are tested they will know the story and will not need to test S1...

A lot is hanging on Kunde 3 and Kennedy then...
 
Is that Kunde 3 they are refering to as the well next door/owned by eme?

Why would it not prove to be "appropriate" to test S1....what are they saying....is it that if Kunde 3 and Kennedy are tested they will know the story and will not need to test S1...

A lot is hanging on Kunde 3 and Kennedy then...

Hi Eva, I think that pretty much sums it up. I think they believe/know they are on to something, and the only reason they would need to test the upper zones of SL1 would be if Kennedy was a failure (doubt that will be the case), and need to get additional information.
My take on it is that they are very confident of the upper zones in SL1 ... Kennedy is showing signs of "proving" their beliefs ... If K gives the results that they are confident of, then the shows which were indicated in SL1 during drilling will be deemed to be "proven" without further testing, and a drilling plan will be on for young and old .............. Its going to be drawn out a bit and patience will probably be required, but this play is showing great potential. Many will jump ship I'm sure through impatience and lack of conviction ............. Until K and SL1 are proven duds, I'm in for the payday down the track ............... Bit like the Pantene ad ............. "It won't happen overnight .............. but it will happen" .............. For me, if it fails, I'm a "dead duck" ............... when I look back in 2009 will I be a "duck" ...... I don't think so ............... but ......... If I end up being a duck, I'll take it on the "beak" and move on !! .... Good luck to the "faithful".
 
Thanks Barney....yep..seems rational to me...why bother with testing zone 1 if kennedy is what they think......makes me think they really haven't let on how confident they are about the drilling of kennedy in recent anns......fingers crossed everyone!
 
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