ADI - Adelphi Energy

[prawn_86]

im not really much of a chartist, but i know that buying interest can be represented by increased volume. Although this can also represent selling interest, so you need to look at the daily moves.

IE - an decent % up day (relative to the stock) with nice volume could indicate buying

im sure someone else can elaborate further and better than I

 

[Sean K]

kenna

how does the charting look with adi now.

Still shoddy. Needs to start making some higher lows and highs, and get back through 50 resistance.

Charts on explorers, low volume, or news responsive stocks are a little less reliable than blue chips in my experience, so I don't rate the probabilities of S&R, or TA formations playing the game that highly. As you say, a major discovery could blow any resistance out of the water. Or alternatively, bad news, support! Not many companies can keep news a secret though so the price action can determine which was a stock is headed, but it's not always the case. As far as people getting set for news goes, yes if there's high expectations of a good find. (See the EGO chart for a good example of that ) However, if news is just OK, or as expected, then 'buy the rumour, sell the fact' is a big possibility (See BMN chart for that )

 

[barney]

kenna

how does the charting look with adi now.

i see two distinct upsides coming in the near term myself.

first one i see is the the immediate response to the kunde 3 well thats in the exact same formation a few miles west. if the well fracs as its expected to in the very immediate future, the upside on a great well will have a flow on effect imho.

the second one i think will follow or perhaps come with the first, that would be the conocphillips TCEI annoucing along with EME the play as a "discovery". and perhaps extrapolating a little on how they view the discovery.. again that news will have a flow on effect onto the jvp imho.

can the charts have indicators or trends earlier before such events are announced to point to expectations like this, do they indicate buying interest for instance?

dont know if read this thread a lot, but would be interested in your views..

Hi Agent, Just about to post but Kennas beat me to it ……… I’ll post it anyway since I’ve already written it …….. ….
We all know the chart on ADI has not been pretty, ….. BUT, the last three days candles represents some positivety in the sense that the selling appears to have slowed/reversed for the moment. As Prawn says, volume will be the key to any serious moves, ………. ADI is moved by news more than fundamentals/technicals, so until we get the news we are after, technicals won’t make a lot of sense.

The real action (volume) started back in early October at about the same SP levels we are currently at so we could assume that unless we get bad news, the SP should be reasonably stable atm (larger support level at around 35 cents, hopefully we won’t drop that far). Cheers.

 

[Agentm]

thanks for the replies..

all good info, so the real consensus is without news driven buying the share is vunerable to trending down slowely or staying roughly where it is.. and of course bad news will always do what it will to any share..

at best the chart can indicate support levels, but not much more can be relied on.. i was watching the trades yesterday, anyone notice the entire day the trades were eithe 25,000 or 2 derivitives of that volume..

 

[Logique]

Those still holding ADI, are presumably believers. I have taken the view, why bother getting out now. It might as easily jump above 0.50 as drift in a range 0.30 to 0.40 until announcements come through. It's a news driven stock, not TA driven.

I never expected it to behave like a bank stock.

All I would say technically, is that you would expect less Sell volume and less volatility from here, a lot of the short termers have gone by now. Technically, there's volume, and then there's volume indicators, and these latter do look encouraging for ADI.

Keep plugging away Agent. I have no intention of logging in one day to see that stock I gave up on has jumped 200% on an announcement.

 

[Agentm]

this one wont make it jump, but at least kennedy is finished and Sl1 is firing up!!

SUGARLOAF OPERATIONS UPDATE
Kennedy #1H Well
The 4-1/2 inch liner has been run to a Total Depth of 16,530 feet and been cemented in place. Operations continue to prepare the well for the planned extensive fracture stimulation testing program.
As previously advised, the interpretation of the logs indicates several extended zones of potential pay in the upper part of the Austin Chalk and are encouraging in their own right. As this horizontal well represents the early stage in the appraisal of a new reservoir and stratigraphic play it will require the careful selection of a fracture stimulation program to optimise the flow and recoverability of any hydrocarbons. As such, the testing program at Kennedy is not likely to commence for several weeks.

Sugarloaf-1 Well
Since our last report completion tubing has been re-run and testing has just begun. Early swabbing has recovered hydrocarbons. The significance of the hydrocarbons cannot be determined until the well has stabilized and the test has run for an extended period.

 

[tomcat]

this one wont make it jump, but at least kennedy is finished and Sl1 is firing up!!

Sugarloaf-1 Well
Since our last report completion tubing has been re-run and testing has just begun. Early swabbing has recovered hydrocarbons. The significance of the hydrocarbons cannot be determined until the well has stabilized and the test has run for an extended period.

I like the fact they have recovered hydrocarbons at SL1...looking forward to hearing more on that. Cant wait to hear how the Kunde testing goes.

 

[cicak_kupang]

Im really begining to think that Z3 may be a goer in SL....and im sure that the jvp's wouldnt be stuffin around with it if it was otherwise.
Wonder if there is any chance that they will but a horizontal in Z3 some day?
I view todays announcement as positive and they are sounding upbeat about the K1H with the "upper sections in their own right" I understand that to mean they may have drilled into some of the natural fractures.

Liked how they mentioned that the testing of K1H is the early stage of testing a new stratographic play .....thats postitive....

 

[Agentm]

last time the flow went they gave all sorts of measurements, this time there are none, so they are saying precious little, and they are not saying the well flowed like last time either, so what it did is now up for speculation. i am very curious how the extended testing gets going and what they tell from it.

cicak

your starting to understand something here i see, good pick up, they are going to use the "stratographic play" line in all thier announcements,, its been creeping in more and more, IMHO they use it to let the market know the potential of the play in the kunde wells will equally be feasable in the 20,000 acres we have.

all in all the announcement has a lot of positives in it, the Sl1 well is firing up and the kennedy well is ready.. and in the short term i am happy to learn more on zone 3.

 

[fflintoff]

Im really begining to think that Z3 may be a goer in SL....and im sure that the jvp's wouldnt be stuffin around with it if it was otherwise.
Wonder if there is any chance that they will but a horizontal in Z3 some day?
I view todays announcement as positive and they are sounding upbeat about the K1H with the "upper sections in their own right" I understand that to mean they may have drilled into some of the natural fractures.

Liked how they mentioned that the testing of K1H is the early stage of testing a new stratographic play .....thats postitive....

ADI AGM Presentation Horizontal under consideration as you rightly surmise:-

“SL Lower zone produced measureable
hydrocarbons in vertical hole – could improve
in horizontal & encouraging for the overlying
play in the chalk in the SL area.”

http://www.adelphienergy.com.au/fil...mber 2007 - Adelphi 2007 AGM Presentation.pdf

 

[tarzanhey]

this one wont make it jump, but at least kennedy is finished and Sl1 is firing up!!

SUGARLOAF OPERATIONS UPDATE
Kennedy #1H Well
The 4-1/2 inch liner has been run to a Total Depth of 16,530 feet and been cemented in place. Operations continue to prepare the well for the planned extensive fracture stimulation testing program.
As previously advised, the interpretation of the logs indicates several extended zones of potential pay in the upper part of the Austin Chalk and are encouraging in their own right. As this horizontal well represents the early stage in the appraisal of a new reservoir and stratigraphic play it will require the careful selection of a fracture stimulation program to optimise the flow and recoverability of any hydrocarbons. As such, the testing program at Kennedy is not likely to commence for several weeks.

Sugarloaf-1 Well
Since our last report completion tubing has been re-run and testing has just begun. Early swabbing has recovered hydrocarbons. The significance of the hydrocarbons cannot be determined until the well has stabilized and the test has run for an extended period.

Intertesting post about swabbing from advfn


quattro44 - 6 Dec'07 - 22:16 - 6409 of 6409 (premium)


Swabbing is always done through tubing with a packer on the end just above the potential zone. That way you only need to pull out a (relatively)small amount of well fluid in order to reduce the hydrostatic head above the formation. By having a packer and circulating valve down there you can easily control the well and ultimately circulate to kill it again before pulling tubing out of the hole to start the next zone.
When they state that they are waiting for the well to stabilize, they are waiting to see how the well performs over a period of time. It may flow for a short time and die. It may start flowing slowly and then increase and then stabilize at a constant rate, it may then start to reduce again. Whatever, they are looking to see what happens over a few days. This will tell them a great deal about the well, and even if the well only produces small amounts of hydrocarbon and may well eventually die, it does not mean that the well is duff. You just need the best way to get it out. Of course, it could actually be duff as well!
I have tested wells where only about 100 feet of oil flowed above the perfs and then stopped. Once stimulated and pumps installed they have flowed constantly at hundreds of barrels per day.

 

[Agentm]

hey tarz.

i like the way these jvps are situated. imho they are the luckiest bunch of unlikely companies in texas..

how the heck they got into this is amazing me.. and to most out there they have no idea what i am talking about..

i am absolutely 100% looking forward to the coming weeks.. if they fracing get on with things that is..

 

[Agentm]

Hi folks,

ADI ... looks like the lows will be confirmed over the next couple of weeks,
as some VERY POSITIVE cycles come out to play:

06-13122007 ... steady lift in prices, as market
anticipates the good news ... ???

14-24122007 ... strong rally, as 3 positive time cycles take affect,
with positive news expected, on the summer solstice 20122007 ...

January 2008 should see underlying positive sentiment
for ADI, until about 25012008.

happy days

paul



=====

i dont know how you do it..

you are going to be spot on this time.. absolutely on the money.

lets begin with next week.. monday the anticipation as you call it will happen.. i totally agree, i expect a lot of interest in the ADI share.

Tuesday- Wednesday 13122007 ADI will benifit from news, and i see the steady lift in the prices on those days for sure.. big time..

the 3 positive cycles from thursday are also evident to me..

as i say, i dont know how you do it, but your going to be on the money.

can i ask if you actually trade on these predictions?

 

[fflintoff]

7 December 2007
ConocoPhillips Approves 2008 Capital Budget of $14.3 Billion.

“In the U.S. Lower 48, the company intends to spend about $3.3 billion, primarily on its ongoing development programs, including those in the Bossier and Lobo trends and the San Juan, Permian, Fort Worth and Piceance basins. Funds also will be spent on the development of new projects, including the Rockies Express natural gas pipeline project.”

http://www.conocophillips.com/newsroom/news_releases/2007news/12-07-2007.htm

 

[Agentm]

pretty good so far..

well done trader paul.. now for the second part


even in a day like today, the sp is lifting as you said it would..

tomorrow is the 13th.. unlucky for some.. but then again, maybe lucky for others.. and imho

 

[tomcat]

Hey Paul,

Looking forward to the cycles and the stars coming together for ADI over the next month....do you have a mid range projection for this stock through 2008?

I think the long term cycles should have it around $10 by 2009...assuming conoco havent bought them out

Cheers
Tom

 

[Agentm]

Kennedy #1H Well​

A 4-1/2 inch liner was cemented in the horizontal section of the Kennedy well and the drilling rig was released on 8 December 2007. The operator intends to run a radial bond log to assess the cement job before finalising plans for an extensive fracture stimulation program and test operations on the well. It is likely that these operations will start early in the new year.​

Sugarloaf-1 Well​

Since our last report, completion tubing has been re-run and flow testing of the deepest of the three zones of interest in the Austin Chalk has continued. Swabbing and short periods of natural flow have recovered small quantities of gas and condensate together with fracture stimulation and work fluids. The operator has advised that the test program will include further swabbing before shutting in the well for a seven day pressure build up test. An electronic pressure gauge assembly has been deployed by wireline. Further work on this zone will be dependent on the analysis of the test and other data.​

interesting that they have changed the well design at kennedy, initially they had planned to keep that liner uncemeneted, now they have replicated kunde 3 and i see they have also replicated the other words that Kunde 3 has all over it

"an extensive fracture stimulation program and test operations on the well"

IMHO they are replicating kunde 3 in every respect..

the SL1 well keeps holding their attention, they are keen as to test the so called zone 3 or whatever you want to call it..

only thing i am interested in currently is the kunde 3 frac, somehow it dwarfs any frac test i have ever heard of..

 

[fflintoff]

Burlington is peppering South Texas with 14000ft horizontal wells. New Hooks well 14 Dec 2007. De Witt county is next to Karnes.

http://webapps.rrc.state.tx.us/DP/viewW1PdfFormAction.do?submit=w1Pdf

 

[Father Ted]

Burlington is peppering South Texas with 14000ft horizontal wells. New Hooks well 14 Dec 2007. De Witt county is next to Karnes.

http://webapps.rrc.state.tx.us/DP/viewW1PdfFormAction.do?submit=w1Pdf

And your point is what exactly? - that the sugarkane extends that far?

I suppose if Conoco started drilling off Craggy Island - you would report that as well!

Lets get back to reality shall we!

lol

ft

 

[Agentm]

in 1993 an earthquake, the largest in texas, was caused by the slip in the fashing fault, that fault a little north of the wells we are drilling.

there are papers from academics on the causes of the fault slip, one is that it was caused by the fashing fields depleting the reserves as a contributor.

whats significant about it is that there are wells in the 70's that didnt show anything, and since those two wells, nothing went into the chalks until a little theory on the edwards was being looked into by burlington TCEI with kunde 1. today we have wells now either side of those wells that are showing something amazing..

This play, this unconventional play has some amazing history alright, and this unconventional play landed in all our laps, including pioneers in the south imho.

what conoco is doing right now, the reasoning for them spending the 100's of millions on this moment, is to explore and understand and develop the cretaceuos zones that are charged up and overpressurised, as difficult and unpedictable the play is, its very evident that this play has conoco's undivided attention and a sizable and significant percentage of its 2008 exploration budget!

this play went from a look at the edwards by burlington, into a unconventional discovery thats absolutely staggering everyone right now in texas.

some of the biggest discoveries have been made in unconventional plays. and i am happily holding whilst this one is being explored by our jvp and Conocophillips!