ADI - Adelphi Energy

[Gspot]

Thanks Barney....yep..seems rational to me...why bother with testing zone 1 if kennedy is what they think......makes me think they really haven't let on how confident they are about the drilling of kennedy in recent anns......fingers crossed everyone!

Why are they still keeping it all secret...IF they are sooooo confident.
Are they still aquiring leases?????
Starting to get frustrated, after a year of waiting. Is good for CGTax though.

 

[prawn_86]

Admittedly I have not done a lot of research on this stock,

But i would urge caution for a stock to have been rumoured to have such a 'massive' amount under its belt and to not have done too much on the price side of things.

Companies managers will always be optimistic, its thier job. IMO if they were sitting on such potential there should have been a bigger rise over the last couple years, or at least a few different funds buying into them.

But thats just my

 

[Evangeline]

Well there have been several funds bought into this stock....in fact around 60% is tightly held by the top 20 shareholders...most of whom are funds...like anz nominees...trojan.....SG Growth....Tricom Nominees....heaps of them and a few individuals.

When you consider that there are only about 100 million shares all up....then there aren't really very many out there to trade....

 

[prawn_86]

Well thats good for holders then IF they can get a run on, as it means it will move up (or down) quickly.

 

[Agentm]

Why are they still keeping it all secret...IF they are sooooo confident.
Are they still aquiring leases?????
Starting to get frustrated, after a year of waiting. Is good for CGTax though.

looked hard at the leases today, yes there are leases still available, right between kunde and SL and to the north a touch, these guys are holding out.. but all are leasing to TCEI in the end, its amazing to watch over the last year!!

its absolutely critical to ADI not to talk this up, they have 2 reasons, one is corporate watchdogs, the other is conocophillips.

once the kunde 3 and 2 wells test, the cats out of the bag, then we will learn of the zone 3 flow test, followed by our kennedy well. IMHO the sp is a rock solid bargain right now. unless we get a major correction, this is as cheap as it gets..

you all would have noticed the 1 mill buy order on the EKAO's, there big confidence on the short term future as a good deal of positive news flow is very likely in the near term. i like their style,, i hope they pick it all up as the accumulators keep taking the shares from the impatient to the patient.

all the top holders of adi are increasing as we have all noticed..

getting closer to news day.. pity if your selling now, and good luck to them.. but its only weeks away, such is life hey!

 

[doctorj]

Agentm, your name is very appropriate. This thread has more conspiracy theories than your average x-files episode.

 

[prawn_86]

I will certainly be watching with interest. If it is under $1 this time next year i'll officially call it a dud.

Good luck to holders

 

[nioka]

I will certainly be watching with interest. If it is under $1 this time next year i'll officially call it a dud.

Good luck to holders

If it is under $1 in six months I'll call it quits.I'll call it quits if it doesn't have some good news very early in the new year. That won't be all I'll be calling it.

 

[Evangeline]

Yes..that 1 million order on the ekao's (the dead canaries as shares put it lol)....shows there is a lot of quiet interest and confidence that we will get good news in the short term.....it is "encouraging" to me anyway.

I'm too scared to get any more oppies with all the delays but the current sp of all the jvps is bargain basement and the news has gotten a lot more positive imo in the last couple of anns.

It seems M may be right about the operators learning a lot and drilling Kennedy with more control....its all gone well over there...no screenouts etc

 

[Agentm]

Agentm, your name is very appropriate. This thread has more conspiracy theories than your average x-files episode.

yet to see any conspiracy.

the well was to be a "closed well" as adi have said, the problem conocphillips have is that the asx has a lot of regulation on reporting.

this is how they reported a potential 3 tcf play last september..


Wire-line logs were successfully run over the open hole section of the well between 6,500 feet (1,981 metres) and the present well depth of 14,480 feet (4,413 metres).
Interpretation of logs by the operator, Texas Crude Energy Inc, indicates a 92 feet (28 metres) zone of possible gas pay corresponding with the zone of gas shows obtained during drilling in the secondary target (reported to the ASX on the 20th September 2006).
While Adelphi considers that the logs are encouraging the commercial significance of the log-interpreted possible pay can only be assessed by flow testing and there is a risk that the zone may not flow at commercial rates. Flow testing of the zone is not programmed at this time but will be considered after the well has been drilled to total depth and the primary target assessed.
The current operation at the well-site is the running of the 9-5/8 inch intermediate casing to present depth of 14,480 feet (4,413 metres). Once run and cemented, the well will continue drilling in 8-1/2 inch diameter hole to the primary target expected between approximately 17,000 feet (5,182 metres) and proposed total depth of 21,000 feet (6,400 metres). There is a further secondary target in carbonate rocks between present depth and just above the primary target. Assuming trouble-free drilling, the primary Hosston Formation target is expected to be reached in mid to late October and total depth in mid November.
ASX releases will continue to be made routinely every Wednesday unless there are material matters which require an earlier release.
Commenting on the wire-line logging results, Chris Hodge, Adelphi’s exploration director said that "whilst the wire-line logging results appear to indicate the presence of hydrocarbon in the rocks, we will not fully understand the commercial significance until the zone is production tested at a later date, possibly with a different rig. Our immediate priority is to case off the 2,432 metres of open hole in order that we can drill to the main Hosston target without delay"


did you see the fan fare? the only real indication came from couch oil.. this was his take on it..




Sugarloaf – Hosston – 1st phase a success
We have dug the well to 14,480’ and logged the upper sections.
Well was trying to flow back gas during the logging operations.

The Austin Chalk zone from 11,925’ to 12,200’ looks very oil productive. The log results may set us up to drill over 100 wells in offsetting lease (26,000 acres) to just produce the oil from that zone. The porosity is just about double from what is normally found NE of our well location. Some folks have successfully produced with as low as 3% porosity. We have 9 to 12% porosity.

The Edwards is from 12,275’ to 14,000’ looks tight or too dense to produce.

The Sligo formation begans about 14,500’

The Hosston (Objective) begans at 17,000’ Planned total depth is 21,000’.

This morning they are running 9 5/8” casing to 14,480’


the conspiracy theory as others call it was this..

couch oil was directed to shut down the website by one of the partners, can anyone guess who had the clout to do that?

both couch oil and ADI were briefed by TCEI, they were both passing on information as they thought fit. one obviously had a directive to remain silent the other had not had such a directive.


ADi in their annual report has given an explanation for it.. it was no conspiracy, just operational proceedure as directed by conocphillips

Based on the joint venture’s interpretation of this play’s
potential in the area combined with production and early
appraisal drilling results from the nearby Sugarkane Field
(which is operated by a major international oil and gas
company), our joint venture has successfully pursued
an aggressive leasing program which has resulted in our
acreage position having increased to over 20,000 acres
of mineral rights for the Austin Chalk play. We have also
now commenced the drilling of the first horizontal well
within our leases which is designed to provide further​

critical reservoir and production data.



so although many see it as a conspiracy, it really wasnt, its just that in the O&G exploration game secrecy on a world class discovery like this is paramount, particularily in Texas. the lease buying operation was ongoing in any case, all of live oak was done by june 2006, the sugarloaf well had to be delayed while they got them, then they continued into karnes county, in sept 06 they had a lot of acreages,, when couch oil put that report out it went all over the boards,, the texas landowners became aware of the play then.. and they have been slowely signing over to TCEI ever since,, still some more work to be done imho.

currently there is still a gag order on all wells. the directors of EME are not allowed to refer to their shareholders that conocophillips is the partner in their wells, and they are not allowed to use the true well names in their reporting. you again may call that a conspiracy, but it really isnt, its just conocphillips protecting its interets whilst trying to secure leases on this entire discovery.

hope that clears up the misconception of any conspiracy

 

[Gspot]

Yes..that 1 million order on the ekao's (the dead canaries as shares put it lol)....shows there is a lot of quiet interest and confidence that we will get good news in the short term.....it is "encouraging" to me anyway.

I'm too scared to get any more oppies with all the delays but the current sp of all the jvps is bargain basement and the news has gotten a lot more positive imo in the last couple of anns.
It seems M may be right about the operators learning a lot and drilling Kennedy with more control....its all gone well over there...no screenouts etc

This is what has me worried. Bargain basement prices with confidence and results just around the corner.
Nothing can be kept that quiet in any market....... from what I've seen.

 

[Evangeline]

But then look at what's just happened with fdl.....yesterday morning it was a 1c stock....now it has gained over 1000%.....why weren't those 'in the know' all over this one before news came out...and how about inp...

 

[Agentm]

interesting town perth is.

imho the programs are going fine. looking forward to the AGM today, and looking forward to those kunde well results, its the same chalks afterall.

 

[cicak_kupang]

Just looking at the AGM presentation from today. Noticed on pg 14, they are now not expecting to test/frac K1H till January now......should have seen that comming..................... Other than that they arent giving to much away. Other than Wisteria1 planned for 2008, there is an obvious lack of drilling.......keeping it that way planning for The year of the Sugarloaf maybe...?

Did anyone goto the AGM today? How was the tone and choice of the words from the board?

 

[Evangeline]

M has been saying that he felt it unlikely that Kennedy would be fraced and tested till January - his reasoning being that they want to wait for the results of Kunde to be in, which will give them additional information on how to best design the frac for Kennedy.....patience patience and more patience seem to be required.

Hopefully it will all be worth the wait in the end.

 

[Agentm]

the agm was as tight as one would expect in the cirumstances.

nothing was being given away.

these best summarise the impressions.

For any long term holder what i think is about to be said would maybe give you some heart, maybe not.. as the majority of long term holders are not investing for timor sea nor yemen nor indonesia. and you can write off thailand.

NT was mentioned again, they are forcing off the operator, its in litigation, so no comment can be made, but i am of the understanding that will continue for some months to come. (if its worth fighting for there must be something in it!)

interesting Chris said the top 50 shareholders hold 54% of the adi share, leaving 50 mill shares in smaller lots.. tightly held!

its unlikely there will be any change there, and the share has hardly been traded. just the usual low prices on offer for those with no patience or forced to sell for other reasons. great buying oppotunities on no news imho.

The all important frac, answered by ADI. january 2008, reasoning, they will wait for the other wells to frac and use their data and understandings to design the best possible frac for kennedy. I am fine with that!


Forward well program? they say they dont have one. well there would be one, but not able to be worked on until the kennedy well is on the go.

Whats happening? will they hammer the stock?

I gather those who are not patient will have to pay a low price as there is no reason for the SP to rocket with currnet news flow..

Primarily IMHO, the real deal is all about waiting a little more. TCEI/CP have now 3 wells to test, its understood kunde 2 is testing the zone 3 region. Kunde 3 is about to test, and we have Baker closing rapidly.

My impressions were that the JVP are uniform in their confidence on the potential. and they are all waiting and avoiding any new projects until they have reasonable confidence of commercial production from the current wells. How close is it? IMHO its very very close, testing of kunde 3 will be the start of things, then we have to complete kennedy !H, still to be announced when that will happen, but the well is not completed. once that happens its rig swapping time, workover rig to come through, then conditioning the well to be ready for the frac. january 08 is easily the right time frame.

Kunde 2 would be tested by then also, and that will give more info on zone 3. IMHO at SL1, they will test zone 2 then decide to go horizontal on whatever zone they want.


I cant see our JVP jumping forward and going into full development until two things happen.

1/ TCEI/CP have tested their well(s) and themselves undertaken a development of the sugarkane

2/ We have got kennedy 1H on production and can capital raise by debt and going to the market for the development of the 20,000 acres.

My impressions i gathered was that the most cautious and conservative outlook is being undertaken until the play is announced as a major discovery. its like a groom waiting for the bride, we have to be patient for the most important thing to arrive..

short term i imagine the kunde results will impact on the jvp's, its will confirm the potential of the horizontals, then in january the games begin as ADi will begin to talk seriously to the market on what its potential is. then i see only excellent days ahead as the sugarkane on our acreages becomes confirmed as productive..

my last impression is that conocophillips and TCEi are serious as ever on the play. and i will be holding for the outcome.

lastly, in my view, the feeling adi have on their future is a lot clearer. Yemen and timor sea are now being worked harder, and new projects are being looked at by Bill Ashby. in terms of the feel about the future is that they have a good idea on how to develop the sugarkane with adi, and they have now decided to think about the furture projects and new projects ADI can take on board. I get the feeling the "groundhog days" of the last 18 months are numbered right now, all jvps are completely tied down in this sugarkane, but suddenly there is a change in the outlook for ADi imho.

i remain holding as before, for the outcome, and am glad that adi has timor sea and yemen ahead, and suagrkane is about to happen.

not long to go imho... not long at all..

 

[Agentm]

From the eka presentation

Potential reserve estimates from Operator (TCEI)

Total Sugarkane potential of Austin Chalk (upper Zone only)​

= 3 TCF & 500MMBC​

On this basis, Sugarloaf AMI upper zone=​

= 300BCF & 50 MMBC (800 BCFE)​

Net EKA reserve potential after royalties​

= 37 BCF & 6.25 MMBC (100 BCFE)​

Additional reserves potential in lower zones 2 & 3
(not included in estimates)​

nice points..​

they dont write off zone 3,, thats not a typing error!!!​

enjoy​

 

[Evangeline]

Hi M

Thanks for keeping up the posts....eka presentation looks very positive...a little movement on the sp at eka today too....worth the wait imho.....

 

[Agentm]

the sp of all the jvp's will remain as they are, or a touch down, until the market is aware of the second phase: horizontal success.

kunde 3 will soon be on production and then the zone 3 region will be tested by kunde 2, as EKA is rightly is pointing out, they know Zone 3 has potential and the two zones are potentially going to add significant value as they are tested. There is no doubt zone 1 is extremely promising, talk to anyone who knows this project and they have the same view, but views dont generate dollars, the value of ADi and the jvp's come as the wells begin to flow.

A few cents up or down here is neither here nor there.. its doesnt imply success or failure of the sugarkane. We all are aware that the jvp's are going at great pains to point out that:

​

​

Sugarloaf-1 & Kennedy-1H logs and
shows similar to the Sugarkane discovery

no one really wants to debate this point, but the "me too" senario thats being said here is very important. the play is a stratographic trap.. very large, high porosity +6%, and over pressurised. its got very very high liquids.. and amazing reserves potential, i am certain the TCEi estimations are grossly underestimated.. so if this play happens, be prepared for some serious re evaluations.. there is no way conocophillips would allow the real potential of this play to be known right now.. we have been fed a nice conservative story on the 3tcf thing,, but i have no doubt that its way under the reality of what 6 -15% porosity can deliver.. but this is all really hypotheticals, we need a well, any well really to show us some potential.. If the screenout didnt happen i wonder if we wouldnt be testing the zone 2 right now and not be talking a whole different ball game?

So how do you value that if there is no well producing? simply put, you cant. but as kunde 3 comes through you will see some changes imho.

how long can we say its not long to go now? for any top 50 holder its not worth trashing the sp to get out, and i cant see anyone really jumping this far in.. but we saw yesterday some good buying, or great selling opportunity, an offer of 200k went through. nice buying, great strategy..

i have always had the plan to sit out the sugarkane and NT.. that plan stays,, but somehow NT will become insignificant in the scheme of things if the prospect is as good as the adi presentations suggest..

good luck if your still holding..​

 

[vpayne]

We know a lot about zone 1, and a lesser amount about zone 3 and in both cases about to learn a lot more. But what do we know or have hints about zone 2 apart from that it is very likely to contain hydrocarbons. Does anyone have any info?