ADI - Adelphi Energy

[billhill]

Just thought i would give a technical input for this stock from my current knowledge. (have only been studying T/A for a year so am not an expert).

So here is what i see on the adi chart. From a volume spread analysis perspective the 18th and the 24th of october stand out to me in that their volumes were much greater then average. Both these days feature a large spread initially pushing down but then closing on the highs. This shows that buyers have come in strongly to snap up all the supply. My opinion is this is likely to be insiders or smart money due to the excessive volume. This would be considered a positive for the stock.

The second point i notice is the drying up of volume as stock price aproaches the resistance level around 50c on the 9th and 12th. This shows a lack of supply which is also a positive for the stock.

IMO what these features show is an accumulation of the stock by bigger players. For them to do this they must be confident in the prospects of the company.

 

[fflintoff]

Slammer from Empyrean:-

Headline Drilling Report
Released 09:06 14-Nov-07
Number 6879H



RNS Number:6879H
Empyrean Energy PLC
14 November 2007


14 November 2007
Empyrean Energy PLC
("Empyrean" or the "Company"; Ticker: (EME))

Sugarloaf Prospect, ("Sugarloaf"), Block B, Texas USA

•Sugarloaf-1 well starts producing gas and condensate on flow test from
deepest of three zones

•Kennedy #1H well reaches total depth after encouraging gas readings
whilst drilling and prepares to run electric logs

Empyrean, the AIM listed oil and gas explorer and producer with assets in
Germany and USA today announces the following:

Kennedy #1H Well
----------------
Texas Crude Energy Inc has advised that the Kennedy-1 exploration well has
reached total depth of 16,750 feet (measured depth) and is running logs prior to
casing for completion and testing. Total depth was called some 820 feet short of
the original proposed measured depth of 17,570 feet for operational convenience.
Background gas levels whilst drilling in the Austin Chalk upper target zone
remained in the range of 40 to 300 units; the commercial significance of which
will not be known until testing operations are completed.

Sugarloaf-1 Well
----------------
Post fracture stimulation logs have now been run and are being analysed. The
lowermost Austin Chalk interval that was previously fracture stimulated has been
put back on flow test and on 11 November commenced flowing gas at a rate of
387,000 cubic feet per day with approximately 335 barrels of water (mostly frac
fluids) per day. As at report time on 13 November, the well had declined to
180,000 cubic feet per day with minor quantities of water. In addition, over the
final 5 hours of the report period, 39 barrels of condensate had been produced.
The significance of these flows will not be known until the testing of the zone
has been completed and analysed.

Further updates will be provided following developments.

The information contained in this announcement was completed and reviewed by the
Technical Director of Empyrean Energy Plc, Mr Frank Brophy BSc (Hons) who has
over 40 years experience as a petroleum geologist.

Commenting today, Empyrean director Tom Kelly said - "The fact that the
Sugarloaf-1 well has started producing gas and now condensate on test flow is
very encouraging. This has significant implications for the potential
productivity from the deepest of three potentially productive zones in the
Sugarloaf-1 well. More testing and information is required, but this is
certainly encouraging from a zone that was not looking so good. In addition, the
Kennedy well appears to have gas zones that correlate to the discovery well on
Block A nearby and we look forward to analysis of electric logs and testing."

For further information

Charlie Geller/ Ed Portman
Conduit PR
Tel: +44 (0) 207 429 6605/
+44 (0) 7979955923

Rod Venables
HB Corporate
Tel: +44(0) 207 510 8600

Empyrean Energy plc
Tel : +44(0) 207 182 1746

 

[fflintoff]

Bell Potter seem confident:-

“Meanwhile, Bell Potter, Stripe Capital and Tolhurst have ended up adding more shares than expected to their holdings in Aurora Oil & Gas after taking up the shortfall in the one-for-10 rights issue. Only 15.2 per cent of the rights issue was subscribed, leaving 15.42 million shares to be placed by the underwriters. Aurora has separately raised an additional $10.6 million from "professional and sophisticated" investors at 53c a share.
Aurora, which closed on Friday at 48c, thought it had left itself enough time since announcing the rights issue in July. The idea was that results would be in from the Sugarloaf-1 well in Texas, of which it has 20 per cent, and these would encourage shareholders to take up the issue.
But delays of various sorts put paid to that plan, and those results are still awaited (as they are at Adelphi Energy and Eureka Energy, which also have stakes in Sugarloaf).
But the words is that the underwriters aren't sweating, given the goal at Sugarloaf is several trillion cubic feet of gas along with condensate.”

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22740709-18261,00.html

 

[chance fate]

At the current test rate the condy is worth around $3m/year... dividing that by respective shareholdings and issued shares - that's only in the order of cents per share... but as someone else said it's a vertical well and it's zone 3and it's still being tested... but for a 3Tcf (gas) field I would have expected a higher gas flow rate... or is this actually a condensate field with associated gas??? arghh... more anxious waiting....

 

[Agentm]

At the current test rate the condy is worth around $3m/year... dividing that by respective shareholdings and issued shares - that's only in the order of cents per share... but as someone else said it's a vertical well and it's zone 3and it's still being tested... but for a 3Tcf (gas) field I would have expected a higher gas flow rate... or is this actually a condensate field with associated gas??? arghh... more anxious waiting....

The Austin Chalk zone from 11,925’ to 12,200’ looks very oil productive. The log results may set us up to drill over 100 wells in offsetting lease (26,000 acres) to just produce the oil from that zone. The porosity is just about double from what is normally found NE of our well location. Some folks have successfully produced with as low as 3% porosity. We have 9 to 12% porosity.

so is the zone 2 and 3 potential oil wells with gas??

 

[fflintoff]

Conservative post from lottie on ADVFN?

"Lotire - 14 Nov'07 - 10:58 - 3173 of 3177


K1h is another monster.
it big, bad ,and pressurised beyond belief."

 

[Agentm]

its now very interesting days, will SL1 zone 3 come on strong or not!!!!

looking forward to any announcements on that zone,

tom is saying it as he sees it!!

"The fact that the Sugarloaf-1 well has started producing gas and now condensate on test flow is very encouraging. This has significant implications for the potential productivity from the deepest of three potentially productive zones in the Sugarloaf-1 well. More testing and information is required, but this is certainly encouraging from a zone that was not looking so good. In addition, the Kennedy well appears to have gas zones that correlate to the discovery well on Block A nearby and we look forward to analysis of electric logs and testing."

 

[Broadside]

seems like Empyrean talks up the prospect much more than the Aussie partners, would be good to see a little more optimism from the JVPs on this side of the pond.

 

[Agentm]

Tom has been saying this for some time now..

In addition, the Kennedy well appears to have gas zones that correlate to the discovery well on Block A nearby and we look forward to analysis of electric logs and testing

from what i have heard they have tested the gas and it appears our formation has the same qualities in the gas as the kunde 1 production well. (he cant name it under the terms of the contract they have with TCEI / conocophillips)

We can see the formation is producing already in zone 3, and all the signs are there that kennedy 1H has all the ingredients for success. matching gas, matching formation and overpressurised chalks. The logs will be interesting, and i have no doubt at all that the kennedy well can be viewed with a high level of optimism..

keeping on being "encouraged"

 

[Agentm]

as usual, well worth a read


<A class=un1 title=Validated href="http://www.advfn.com/cmn/fbb/pby.php?user=quattro44">quattro44 - 14 Nov'07 - 22:50 - 3289 of 3310

estseon et al.

Most fluid/proppant frac jobs are combined with pumping near liquid nitrogen down at the same time. The idea is that the nitrogen expands in the formation at elevated temperatures and forces the frac fluids back out after fraccing so helping clean up. This may or may not happen instantly but take a day a day or two especially if the perforations take a while to clear themselves. The fact that this has sinced produced significant gas and condensate from a vertical well in chalk may be very significant. The reduction in flow will be due to the expelled nitrogen running down but the fact that gas continues to flow means that they have proved that the frac job has managed to connect various natural fractures in this formation and thus it could well produce very very much more after horizontal drilling.

Separate zones rarely are interconnected together: that is why they are separate and pressurized due to a natural impermeable cap above each one. A frac job never intends to connect different zones, only to propagate a fracture within each zone. To send a fracture outside a zone would court disaster as you could send it into a water zone. You would also be unable to monitor pressure and not know from where you were producing gas etc from, as the pressures in each zone may be very different.
Conversely, this is perhaps one reason why they want k2 as a monitor well as they would be able to detect if there was any interconnectivity between zones during a frac job on an adjacent well.
Therefore it is never intented to just drill one horizontal in one zone with the intention of producing from many! It is perfectly possible, and done in practice, to drill more than one horizontal in multiple zones in one well, as this is obviously the most economic. Having said that, if they can prove that zone 3 is fractured, can take fracturing, and may be connected to zone 2 without any nasty water zones, AND it is not worth producing from this zone 3, then it MAY be worth using zone 3 as a water or gas injection zone to pressurize the more prolific upper zones. But that is a wild one from me and i have to say very unlikely!

Imho this appears to be extraordinary good news in such a well and vindicates their decision to frac.
q44

 

[prawn_86]

Sorry guys about this question,

but i have never met a company board member that isnt 'enouraged' or 'excited' abouts its prospects, even though a lot of them never get anywhere.

Im not saying ADI wont, im just wondering why I should listen to what the board has to say. Rather than 'actual' results not preliminary studies or anything.

 

[Agentm]

Sorry guys about this question,

but i have never met a company board member that isnt 'enouraged' or 'excited' abouts its prospects, even though a lot of them never get anywhere.

Im not saying ADI wont, im just wondering why I should listen to what the board has to say. Rather than 'actual' results not preliminary studies or anything.

you dont have to believe anything at all.. ADI have never used encouraged in their announcements, they do so to remain fairly neutral at this point when the formation is not proven to flow, but with zone 3 flowing oil you have to be a little encouraged.


tom at eme has every reason to say what he did, and i am as bullish as the jvp are on this one.

others that are encouraged are the ones buying 4 million shares the other day.. and also the aut brokers, if you look at the australian article.

dont let it bother you too much.. i use encouraged as if i say much more i get slaughtered for being optimistic, now it not even cool to be encouraged.

hows this then

i am not discouraged by anything thats happening?? safer for you?

prawn if your going to moderate me, let me know via pm now, happy to leave this forum ok!!

 

[fflintoff]

Latest from Empyrean in London;-


RNS Number:7801H
Empyrean Energy PLC
15 November 2007


15 November 2007

Empyrean Energy PLC
("Empyrean" or the "Company"; Ticker: (EME))
Sugarloaf Block A, Texas USA

* TCEI JV Block A # 3 well encounters gas shows whilst drilling over the
target zone

Empyrean, the AIM listed oil and gas company with exploration and production
assets in Germany and USA today announces the following regarding Sugarloaf
Block A in Texas:

TCEI JV Block A-3 Well
----------------------
Empyrean has been advised by the operator that gas shows have been encountered
over a 185 feet interval at about 12,000 feet depth which is the main objective
of the TCEI JV Block A-3 well. The gas recordings rose to a maximum of 350 units
which is approximately ten times the background gas readings immediately prior
to the shows. These gas readings were recorded during drilling of the vertical
pilot hole section of the well.

Current operations are preparation for open hole logging. The well is then
planned to be drilled 1500-2000 feet horizontally into the target zone for
completion and testing.

The commercial significance of the gas shows will not be known until the full
results of any testing are analyzed.

The information contained in this announcement was completed and reviewed by the
Technical Director of Empyrean Energy Plc, Mr Frank Brophy BSc (Hons) who has
over 40 years experience as a petroleum geologist.

Commenting today, Empyrean director Tom Kelly said - "This is further good news
for Empyrean as we now have a total of five wells in the Sugarkane discovery
area - two on Block B and three on Block A that have encountered gas whilst
drilling. We look forward to the results of testing from each well during what
promises to be an exciting testing phase for the company."

For further information

Jonathan Charles/Charlie Geller
Conduit PR
Tel: +44 (0) 207 429 6611

Rod Venables
HB Corporate
Tel: +44(0) 207 510 8600

Empyrean Energy plc
Tel : +44(0) 207 182 1746



This information is provided by RNS
The company news service from the London Stock Exchange

END
DRLIIFIDLSLELID

 

[prawn_86]

prawn if your going to moderate me, let me know via pm now, happy to leave this forum ok!!

It was actually a legitimate question.

just because im a mod doesnt mean i cant participate in discussions.

I find it intersting that a company whose chart/price hasnt been that extraordinary over the last couple years, can have so many posts. I mean like 140 pages for a co which has gone from 20 to 60c in 2 years. It certainly must have done something right to make its shareholders so loyal.

Perhaps i could write an essay to do with brand loyalty using this co as an example for my marketing degree

 

[Agentm]

It was actually a legitimate question.

just because im a mod doesnt mean i cant participate in discussions.

I find it intersting that a company whose chart/price hasnt been that extraordinary over the last couple years, can have so many posts. I mean like 140 pages for a co which has gone from 20 to 60c in 2 years. It certainly must have done something right to make its shareholders so loyal.

Perhaps i could write an essay to do with brand loyalty using this co as an example for my marketing degree

this could be one of the biggest onshore gas discoveries in recent history,
not worth it in your book, well worth it for the holders

6tcf 1 billion barrels of oil,, and looking better and better..

enjoy

 

[doctorj]

this could be one of the biggest onshore gas discoveries in recent history,
not worth it in your book, well worth it for the holders

6tcf 1 billion barrels of oil,, and looking better and better..

You’ve got my attention. Given you seem to be the expert –
1) Those numbers you quote, are they reserves or just a target? If so what confidence rating is that based on?
2) How many wells have they drilled? How many have found something? What have they flowed?
3) How deep? What sands?
4) This seems to have been going on quite a long time. What’s the hold up?
5) Is there a recent investor presentation that gives me answers to these questions?

Cheers

 

[Agentm]

You’ve got my attention. Given you seem to be the expert –
1) Those numbers you quote, are they reserves or just a target? If so what confidence rating is that based on?

reserve estimates on zone 1 are 3tcf 500mmbbls , based on conocophillips tcei numbers over 200,000 acres.. we have 20,000 acres

zone 3 is begining to flow, if that flows each zone can hold equal reserves.. so 6tcf for zone 3 and if zone 2 (which is the biggest zone) then add another 3 maybe?


2) How many wells have they drilled?
where do we start..
Pogue,
kunde 1 and
Kunde 2 vertical
Kunde 3 Horizontal
meeks 1 vertical (pioneer)
baker 1 horizontal
Kunde 2 directional

our acreages...

Sugarloaf 1 vertical
Kennedy 1H horizontal

there are others, but i wont go into them...


How many have found something?

all of them

What have they flowed?

only kunde 1 has flowed zone 1 and SL1 has just flowed in zone 3, the rest are all about to..

3) How deep?

11500 - 12300

What sands?

no sands,, extremely high overpressurised high matrix porosity austin chalks

4) This seems to have been going on quite a long time.

15 years of research

What’s the hold up?

nothing now.. before,, proving the play in ultra secrecy, and getting all the leases.. conocophillips is the player, worlds top 10 corporation, this is a discovery project for them.. massive well progam about to commence..

5) Is there a recent investor presentation that gives me answers to these questions?

http://www.adelphienergy.com.au/files/presentations/Investor Update Presentation Sep 2007.pdf

http://www.auroraoag.com.au/docs/2007/AUT20070905_2.pdf



Cheers

 

[jtb]

reserve estimates on zone 1 are 3tcf 500mmbbls , based on conocophillips tcei numbers over 200,000 acres.. we have 20,000 acres

Excuse my tired mind AgentM but can you clarify this statement please?

Have we got some zero's in the wrong place?

Ta

J

 

[Agentm]

Excuse my tired mind AgentM but can you clarify this statement please?

Have we got some zero's in the wrong place?

Ta

J

i cant see any numbers wrong,, can you clarify which ones you think are wrong please.. that link on the post takes you to the presentation which i thought was the same..

cheers

 

[Sean K]

i cant see any numbers wrong,, can you clarify which ones you think are wrong please.. that link on the post takes you to the presentation which i thought was the same..

cheers

Agentm, ADI is only involved in Sugerloaf isn't it, which is the 20K acres?

The 200K is Sugerkane, and isn't that Aurora's?

And, how much of Sugarloaf does ADI own? Isn't it just 20%? So, 20% of 20K is 4K? And, this is just 'potential' isn't it?

The quarterly didn't sound too great for success here. Can you clarrify it, or say why it's encouraging? Perhaps recent anns overide this.

Cheers,
kennas