The Elliott Wave Analysis Thread

[It's Snake Pliskin]

This thread is getting hilarious.

Cartman I understand your thoughts regarding EW.

Tech, Nick has already established the VSA EW method.

 

[Cartman]

Cartman I understand your thoughts regarding EW.

Finally someone who understands me !! Thank you Snake (I think MRC is warming to me as well )



Oz, Tech and others I understand a lot more about E/W than you might think ---- Young in years, old in study

very interested in the answers to my last post??

entry points from e/W or traditional T/A

E/W on a 1 min / 1 sec chart??? Valid or not ------ WHY/why not?

 

[It's Snake Pliskin]

Cartman.

Have a read of
"Dynamic Trading "
By Robert Miner.

Would be helpful.

Tech,

Have you utilised his time elements?

 

[It's Snake Pliskin]

If you get a strong Wave3 with crap volume how do you respond to that from a trading point of view?

This is a good question.

Watch wave 4. Or, many other options depending on your EW melded style.

 

[It's Snake Pliskin]

Seriously though, that chart on FMG that was mentioned above somewhere I could count at least 10 waves between the low in Jan to the high in June Y complicate it with stuff --- 123, 123, etc Lower high, lower low, mmmm.... might be time to sell !!

Not trying to be smart just the way i see it.

Cartman,

This is the initial problems I had too. Why here and not here? Why 5 instead of 15 waves?

It is theory and that is not realistic at times. There are ways to see through the counts which are more practical.

 

[It's Snake Pliskin]

entry points from e/W or traditional T/A

E/W on a 1 min / 1 sec chart??? Valid or not ------ WHY/why not?

I guess it depends on the EW method you are using. If you go by traditional theory I cannot assist as I don't know enough about it and its rigidity.

 

[Cartman]

Thanks Snake. I may write a lot of crap but its always tempered with serious content for anyone who wants to take the time to read it. Youve taken the time and I respect that.

 

[It's Snake Pliskin]

Thanks Snake. I may write a lot of crap but its always tempered with serious content for anyone who wants to take the time to read it. Youve taken the time and I respect that.

No worries Cartman. We all have valid points to talk about at times.
Cheers..

 

[potato]

I think this thread was started for ppl who wanted to learn EW, its not about justifying EW. Every1 has a method to help them pull the trigger... some ppl like to toss a coin, some ppl like to use EW ... whats the big deal

Cartman if u knew as much as u say about EW then u wouldnt ask those questions - u should try the google bar and come back with some better questions regarding EW if u are serious.

 

[Sean K]

Come on guys. How hard is it to discuss this without having to start a piss throwing contest? Maybe people get infected by this EW stuff and turn into monsters? Dr Jeykl and Mr Wave?

 

[chops_a_must]

It's a mental illness Kennas.

It's called Elliot Wavertism.

Helps you set up multiple accounts, never allows you to see the other side, and provides justification for letting your losers run.

 

[Cartman]

I think this thread was started for ppl who wanted to learn EW, its not about justifying EW. Every1 has a method to help them pull the trigger... some ppl like to toss a coin, some ppl like to use EW ... whats the big deal

Cartman if u knew as much as u say about EW then u wouldnt ask those questions - u should try the google bar and come back with some better questions regarding EW if u are serious.

My nasty post was deleted – took me 10 minutes to write that I'll be nice now!

Hey Potato

Ok Ive adjusted the post I had just written cause I thought you hadn’t replied --- plan B

Firstly if you want to learn about the intricacies of E/W I’m certainly NOT your man

Tech, Nick Radge, Frank (brilliant) and many others

I am actually very sincere --- im also a bit crazy but that is another story (I watch South Park that should explain a lot lol hence the “screw you guys” one of Cartmans famous lines – my apologies if that offended --- certainly not intended)

The questions I asked were genuine although probably misconstrued due to me being flippant cause I wasn’t really asking them to get answers just raise discussion

The horse scenario where price represents a two horse race is valid re chasing outliers I think that analogy was actually pretty thought provoking -- both cryptic and logical

Re E/W

Imo E/W is interesting on a minor to intermediate level to get an overview of the bigger picture either developing or breaking down but i trade mostly on 1 second charts (not stocks) where i find E/W has very little use -- Cycles on a 1 second chart generally last between 10 to 30 minutes on average ---- simple MA's , MOMENTUM , H/H's L/L's etc etc relative to the previous cycle are all that is required

Entries based purely on E/W are in my opinion too loose and require too wide stops to be effective in my world --- unless scaled into
Wont ramble on any further --- If ive annoyed anyone on this thread I apologise ---- just trying to have a bit of light hearted fun

 

[Cartman]

It's a mental illness Kennas.

Goddamn it they're on to me :taz:

 

[Porper]

It's a mental illness Kennas.

It's called Elliot Wavertism.

Helps you set up multiple accounts, never allows you to see the other side, and provides justification for letting your losers run.

Hello Chops, not sure how it let's your losers run.

One of the main advantages of E.Wave is that it gives an absolute level where we the count is wrong, therefore a stop is triggered, no ifs and buts, this is absolute.

Yes, the count then changes, we then have to decide if another trade is available, sometimes it is, sometimes not.

We seem to be concentrating on whether Elliot is predictive and a valid methodology or whether it is just all mumbo jumbo, again.This has been covered so many times on here Cartman, not worth going over again.

Maybe you just either love it or hate it.

I wasn't going to rise to Frank D's post but we can all pick a stock, index or whatever and make our method look like the Holy Grail.I would suggest it is like any other method, it seems to work on occasions and not others, question is can we profit from our method or not.

Some clearly on here have tried Elliot and it hasn't worked, I know others that have proved to me that it does, personal experience has been overall successful if applied correctly, of course always room for improvement.

 

[tech/a]

i trade mostly on 1 second charts (not stocks) where i find E/W has very little use -- Cycles on a 1 second chart generally last between 10 to 30 minutes on average ---- simple MA's , MOMENTUM , H/H's L/L's etc etc relative to the previous cycle are all that is required

This is where I lose/have lost-- interest in the discussion.

 

[mazzatelli1000]

This is where I lose/have lost-- interest in the discussion.

Don't like the shorter time fram tech/a??

 

[Frank D]

Porper

That’s got nothing to do with curve fitting a chart to make it look like the
holy grail.

All I’m doing is giving an example of introducing a Time element to verify
the wave count after the close of the timeframe, so that the trader
trades the 100% moves from the previous timeframe using certain
set-ups.

You either trade a breakout or you trade a certain set-up, which I think
from mid points outward is one of the most robust set-ups using 'Time' as
a key component.

Once the timeframe ends then the new wave counts can be
verified.

If you are a short to medium term trader you focus on the Weekly
and monthly charts.

The larger the trends you focus on the Quarterly and Yearly timeframes.

There are 13 pages on this thread and I still haven’t seen a
generic plan /rules or certain set-ups for traders to take using EW.

I've just given an example by introducing Time.

If you like you can show one.

 

[theasxgorilla]

Cartman,

This is the initial problems I had too. Why here and not here? Why 5 instead of 15 waves?

It is theory and that is not realistic at times. There are ways to see through the counts which are more practical.

This question is easily answered. The five waves forward three waves back is the fewest number of waves possible for progress with fluctuation. That's the beauty of Elliott Wave and why I believe that it probably has some scientific basis and that someone will eventually win a Nobel prize one day for finally proving it.

Regarding someone else's question about waves on shorter timeframes. My opinion (based on common sense and some experience) is that Elliott Wave must work best at those timeframes where the price data (as represented on a chart) contains the purest representation of the sentiment behind the actions of the market participants, perhaps with some upper filter for volatility.

As you lengthen the timeframe of your analysis the risk for distortion of the relative meaning of price movements invariably goes up. What is a rise of 100% on the S&P500 when the USD depreciates 50% during the same time? Prechter had this problem when trying to breakdown the count of the 00-02 bear market and attempted to normalise the currency shifts and reduce the wave-count distortion by creating a "stable currency benchmark".

Similarly, while distortions caused by things such as currency fluctuations and inflation will (IMO) over a longer period of time slowly erode the viability of price data for wave counts, sudden increases in volatility (eg. 800-pound gorillas, black swan events etc.) must almost certainly destroy the effectiveness of wave counting until volatility subsides.

And at very small timeframes I expect that it takes events of lesser magnitude to ruin wave counts and start causing Elliott Wave rule breaking price activity. The lower you go the more likely you are to have your counts ruined, again IMO.

Prechter won the US Trading Championships using hourly charts. Many non-EW swing traders I know use this time-frame as their base (zooming out for market perspective and in to fine tune entries/exits). I've personally found the incidence of identifiable wave-counts at this time frame on liquid instruments makes it a kind of sweet spot for actually trading using EW.

My amateur opinion.

 

[chops_a_must]

Hello Chops, not sure how it let's your losers run.

One of the main advantages of E.Wave is that it gives an absolute level where we the count is wrong, therefore a stop is triggered, no ifs and buts, this is absolute.

Just taking a swipe at WP with that Porper my good man, who through one of his many aliases, admitted he had been holding USD for about 18 months or something, despite being on the wrong side.

 

[Boggo]

This question is easily answered. The five waves forward three waves back is the fewest number of waves possible for progress with fluctuation. That's the beauty of Elliott Wave and why I believe that it probably has some scientific basis and that someone will eventually win a Nobel prize one day for finally proving it.

Regarding someone else's question about waves on shorter timeframes. My opinion (based on common sense and some experience) is that Elliott Wave must work best at those timeframes where the price data (as represented on a chart) contains the purest representation of the sentiment behind the actions of the market participants, perhaps with some upper filter for volatility.

As you lengthen the timeframe of your analysis the risk for distortion of the relative meaning of price movements invariably goes up. What is a rise of 100% on the S&P500 when the USD depreciates 50% during the same time? Prechter had this problem when trying to breakdown the count of the 00-02 bear market and attempted to normalise the currency shifts and reduce the wave-count distortion by creating a "stable currency benchmark".

Similarly, while distortions caused by things such as currency fluctuations and inflation will (IMO) over a longer period of time slowly erode the viability of price data for wave counts, sudden increases in volatility (eg. 800-pound gorillas, black swan events etc.) must almost certainly destroy the effectiveness of wave counting until volatility subsides.

And at very small timeframes I expect that it takes events of lesser magnitude to ruin wave counts and start causing Elliott Wave rule breaking price activity. The lower you go the more likely you are to have your counts ruined, again IMO.

Prechter won the US Trading Championships using hourly charts. Many non-EW swing traders I know use this time-frame as their base (zooming out for market perspective and in to fine tune entries/exits). I've personally found the incidence of identifiable wave-counts at this time frame on liquid instruments makes it a kind of sweet spot for actually trading using EW.

My amateur opinion.

Good post, can we get back to this type of commentary rather than wasting bandwidth going round in circles.


Thought for today...

A Cherokee elder sitting with his grandchildren told them, "In every life there is a terrible fight -- a fight between two wolves.

One Wolf is evil: he is fear, anger, envy, greed, arrogance, self-pity, resentment and deceit.

The other Wolf is good: joy, serenity, humility, confidence, generosity, truth, gentleness, and compassion."

A child asked, "Grandfather, which wolf will win?"

The elder looked him in the eye. "The one you feed."