The Elliott Wave Analysis Thread

[tech/a]

Cartman.

Have a read of
"Dynamic Trading "
By Robert Miner.

Would be helpful.

 

[Cartman]

Cartman.

Have a read of
"Dynamic Trading "
By Robert Miner.

Would be helpful.

Hi Tech appreciate your posts. Not a great reader and already have some concrete views of human psych with regard to E/W Happy to discuss stuff but not happy to read stuff (time short for personal reasons ) Give me the gist of the book and I will give you my opinion for what its worth

 

[tech/a]

Hi Tech appreciate your posts. Not a great reader and already have some concrete views of human psych with regard to E/W Happy to discuss stuff but not happy to read stuff (time short for personal reasons ) Give me the gist of the book and I will give you my opinion for what its worth

See if you cant read a little of these to get a gist of the book.

http://www.amazon.com/review/produc...cm_cr_acr_txt?_encoding=UTF8&showViewpoints=1


I look forward to further enlightenment with regard to CARTMAN WAVE ANALYSIS.

 

[Cartman]

MMmmmmm OK I'll post it anyway for those interested -----

In abbreviated form

Rules --------- Three waves only!!!! ----- Wave 3 of any given cycle becomes wave one of the next cycle

If the high of wave two (second cycle) is higher than wave two of the previous cycle ------ buy near the bottom of the next wave three (if the bottom of this wave three is higher than the previous wave 3 bottom

vica verca for shorts


no rocket science required

the trade has more credibility if the longer time frames match the time frame you are trading in ie 4 hour is long and you are trading the 1 minute which is a long ------ load up !!!!!


If you are looking for the outlier move worth 1000 pips disregard everything above ------- (much more profit in consistent modest returns) ---------

Take half your profit as required and set a B/E stop loss on remainder and relax

very simplified version above but some will appreciate it for its simplicity

Just read your above post Tech "Cartman Wave Analysis" ......... I smiled -------- love your work!!

 

[Boggo]

I have attached a chart of FMG (to 25th June) that I believe was Elliott Wave poetry.

While most of the supporters of FMG were piling in on the new breakout the Robert Miner process of trying to establish which wave the breakout was occurring on was also a factor.

Wave 3, go long, wave 5 caution.

How many were exiting their long and preparing to short on the 25th June ?
Not many I think (I waited until the wave 4 low, reluctant to go against the herd )

The rest shall we say is history.
.

 

[Cartman]

I have attached a chart of FMG (to 25th June) that I believe was Elliott Wave poetry.

While most of the supporters of FMG were piling in on the new breakout the Robert Miner process of trying to establish which wave the breakout was occurring on was also a factor.

Wave 3, go long, wave 5 caution.

How many were exiting their long and preparing to short on the 25th June ?
Not many I think (I waited until the wave 4 low, reluctant to go against the herd )

The rest shall we say is history.
.

Hey Bog, Luv your stuff on the marriage thead ----- funny man!!

Using the "Cartman Wave Analysis" (thanks Tech) you would have been short on around 15 th July at $9 + nice ------- almost an Outlier in hindsight!! And that is working off the daily chart -------

FX and futs you can work off the minute or less charts !!

 

[tech/a]

Agree here is a similar AGET chart with Fibbonarsy attached.

 

[Boggo]

Cartman.

Have a read of
"Dynamic Trading "
By Robert Miner.

Would be helpful.

I really like his no nonsense approach too tech/a.

Someone pointed me to some good and simply explained wave theory on the Elwave site some time ago.

Worth a read I think.

http://www.prognosis.nl/elwave/faq/principle/index.html

 

[Cartman]

See if you cant read a little of these to get a gist of the book.

http://www.amazon.com/review/produc...cm_cr_acr_txt?_encoding=UTF8&showViewpoints=1


I look forward to further enlightenment with regard to CARTMAN WAVE ANALYSIS.

OK Nothing there that I didnt know but its interesting that Miner admits that (QUOTE)"Elliott's "wave counts" work about 50% of the time"

Seriously guys Toss a coin !!!

Higher highs/Lower lows and MA's will give you the same story without the theory and headaches Im not saying its not a valid analysis tool but way too much weight is given to its usefulness in my opinion ----- Ill go away now cause I suspect Im not required on this thread lol

 

[wayneL]

OK Nothing there that I didnt know but its interesting that Miner admits that (QUOTE)"Elliott's "wave counts" work about 50% of the time"

Seriously guys Toss a coin !!!

Higher highs/Lower lows and MA's will give you the same story without the theory and headaches Im not saying its not a valid analysis tool but way too much weight is given to its usefulness in my opinion ----- Ill go away now cause I suspect Im not required on this thread lol

Eeeeeeeeee! I said something similar ages ago and got seriously flamed... still have the bandages on from that one.

Take cover!!!

 

[Cartman]

Eeeeeeeeee! I said something similar ages ago and got seriously flamed... still have the bandages on from that one.

Take cover!!!

OOpSY !!! Ive had a couple of ales + I'm new here so go easy you guys - ----- my old man is here too but Im not saying who he is --- He might fight with me ----- NOT ------ lol---

The old man says you know what you r talking about Wayne so Im on your side

Seriously though, that chart on FMG that was mentioned above somewhere I could count at least 10 waves between the low in Jan to the high in June Y complicate it with stuff --- 123, 123, etc Lower high, lower low, mmmm.... might be time to sell !!

Not trying to be smart just the way i see it.

 

[tech/a]

Not trying to be smart just the way I see it.

I have been where you are.

The dynamics of Elliott (One of 3 dynamic forms of analysis I am aware of) is what frustrates those who have a brief look at it. I was one of these.
How on earth could a wave count alter during a price move?

On closer investigation it soon became clear that the ability of the analysis to be so dynamic and alter as price took its course was in fact its greatest strength.

I see it as a painting.
You start with an idea and as the idea is set on a canvas it takes shape.
You can ask many during the development of the painting what it depicts.
The more experienced will be able to look at it and say that if this and that occurs during the painting then it will end up like X. Continued glances at the painting will either confirm or negate the ideas of those interested in the development of the painting.As the painting matures so to does the clarity.

Elliott is no different.
Its dynamics can be used to great advantage,by those who choose to understand its application and indeed its ability to morph into the presented price action over time.

Rigidity in analysis will frustrate the exponent.

 

[Frank D]

Elliot wave is NOT Dynamic!!!!!

The only thing dynamic in the market is Time, because time is the only thing that moves forward.

Elliot has no ‘time’ parameters in its methodology

 

[wayneL]

I have been where you are.

The dynamics of Elliott (One of 3 dynamic forms of analysis I am aware of) is what frustrates those who have a brief look at it. I was one of these.
How on earth could a wave count alter during a price move?

On closer investigation it soon became clear that the ability of the analysis to be so dynamic and alter as price took its course was in fact its greatest strength.

I see it as a painting.
You start with an idea and as the idea is set on a canvas it takes shape.
You can ask many during the development of the painting what it depicts.
The more experienced will be able to look at it and say that if this and that occurs during the painting then it will end up like X. Continued glances at the painting will either confirm or negate the ideas of those interested in the development of the painting.As the painting matures so to does the clarity.

Elliott is no different.
Its dynamics can be used to great advantage,by those who choose to understand its application and indeed its ability to morph into the presented price action over time.

Rigidity in analysis will frustrate the exponent.

That's all fair comment.

The thing is, the same attitude can be taken into many forms of geometric/time & price type analysis. One must even doff their cap to Gann analysis if used in the same way (rather than rigid prediction). Just another useful way to toss the coin.

 

[tech/a]

Frank Ive seen time introduced into Elliott from both Miner and Poser.

But wether it is used or not (Time in Elliott analysis) in the formulation of analysis there is no doubt that wave counts progress through time.The evolution of a wave count will progress through time and alter through time. As such I see it as dynamic.

Do you see it as static?

Wayne that is true and I was actually thinking that as I wrote it up.

 

[Frank D]

Look at the seconds hand on a watch and you notice it moves in a
dynamic motion forward.

We all know what time it will be in 1 hour. We all know tomorrow is a
new day. Next Monday begins a new week, and the first of the month is
the start of the ‘new’ month.

We all know what the Time will be in the future. Time is the only constant ‘dynamic’ motion in the markets and Technical analysis.

Price isn’t dynamic!

The only thing we know about Price is, where it has been and where it is now.

We don’t know where Price will be in 1 hour or in 1 week.

The major component of EW is based on Price. It’s based on previous
highs and lows, and then the math is introduced afterwards as price
action unfolds.

There is nothing wrong with that because as traders we all wait until
things unfold and then act upon them. We trade with the trend as
breakouts, or Thrust patterns from central zones outward, or we
trade against the trend when markets rotate back towards central
zones from outer extremes.

EW doesn’t have anything to do with Time as part of its core
methodology, and don’t included the notion of price traveling over a
distance (time), as part of it’s theory.

They are two separate things all together.

There needs to be a generic template that encompasses the
critical components of all technical analysis:- support/resistance, Price
and TIME.

A generic template that any user of the methodology can apply
without causing confusion, which is what a lot users of EW find, as
it’s missing some of the most critical components of T/A.

And especially one of the most important parameters when using a
dynamic methodology :- Time

 

[OzWaveGuy]

Elliot wave is NOT Dynamic!!!!!

The only thing dynamic in the market is Time, because time is the only thing that moves forward.

Elliot has no ‘time’ parameters in its methodology

I have some specific thoughts on the 'time' topic, but let me ask a question: Frank, do you have some specific ideas or suggestions on how time measurements/calculations could be made within EW analysis?

 

[Frank D]

It's obvious that Time has to be multi-layered over a number of
timeframes, so you can define your Primary, Secondary and
intermediated trends.

But I think EW wave counts need to be constantly revalidated as Time
moves forward, not by previous highs and lows, but by previous highs
and lows within the ‘Time’ after it has completed.

For example let’s use 1 week as a Time parameter as a lesser timeframe

The new Week begins and the market moves down 3 day makes a low
and swings up 2 days.

A normal EW trader will mark that as a lesser wave. In my opinion that
wave shouldn’t be marked until that Week has completed at the end of
Friday, as this will validate the wave and the completion of the Timeframe.

The trader should then be using the previous ‘week’s waves', as
resistance and support, and also the midpoint as then trend guide to
trade the current timeframe.

That price action would be lesser waves within Weekly timeframe, which is part of the higher timeframe ( Monthly).

The lows in November aren’t validated until the last day of the month,
and then should be counted for the current month.

Because what nomally happens is that a low in a monthly timeframe
can swing upwards 3 days, the trader thinks that’s the low but
then continues lower once again without completing the UP swing, as it
has hit the previous resistance zone from the previous timeframe.

It becomes confusing as the EW trader has to recalculate the wave counts
in the current timeframe, when he or she shouldn't until the timeframe completes and validates the waves.

The EW trader simply calculates the waves at the end of each timeframe, not during the current timeframe.

Things traders need to remember:- Time trends and TIME rotates.

This where often your see a 1 week timeframe trends in 1 direction, but
then reverse at the start of the next timeframe:- TOP to Bottom
Monday into Friday, and bottom to Top :- Monday into Friday.

The same applies to Monthly timeframe:- rotate inward and extend outward based on TIME.

 

[OzWaveGuy]

Thanks Frank. Do you have a specific example that illustrates the points you have raised?

I do agree that EW by itself does not contain a methodology around 'time' and I believe many of the EW practitioners have acknowledged that EW can best be used by complementing existing technical analysis methods (if implemented correctly)

 

[Frank D]

Chart below is the recent Daily price action of the S&P

October ends and November begins and you have the 50% level
for November:- Resistance and trend guide. (yellow), which is the
midpoint of the previous Month.

Each blue box is each Weekly timeframe, just to illustrate a lesser
timeframe.

Each red line is the midpoint of the previous week.

We notice in the first week price moves down into the previous Weekly
50% level (last Week in October) finds support.

2nd week :- Moves up and then rejects down from the Weekly 50%
level from the previous week, which is part of the trend from of the
higher timeframe downtrend in November.

More often than not each extension outward is 100% of the
previous timeframe from the new 50% level.

The trend guide is moving with Time (50%), and the extension is moving with Time

The trend ends once price moves back above the 50% level in the last
week of the month in this instance.

If the trader thinks the market is going to go higher:- then the trader
should be trading from the Weekly 50% level the following week, but
more importantly price should be trading above the Monthly 50% level,
which won’t occur until this monthly timeframe ends and then new one
begins.

The trader wants to trade the trends from the midpoints outward :- thrust patterns.

But the important part is the trader’s bias changes with the end of the current timeframe and start of the new timeframe.

The trader wants to be trading on the side of the midpoints. The higher the timeframe the greater the trend outward.

Each of these moves are lesser patterns of the higher timeframes:- Quarterly and Yearly.

As you can see this has nothing to do with EW, but you are now introducing Time parameters into the model.