The Elliott Wave Analysis Thread

[OzWaveGuy]

Chart below is the recent Daily price action of the S&P

Thanks for the chart. I believe I understand the logic used and looks to work very well on the S&P. Do you think the same results can be obtained for other indexes like the XAO or XMJ?

I tried using the same process on the XAO, but found the 50% levels don't appear to act in the same way as the S&P500. Is this system unique to the S&P or are other % levels more apparent on different indexes in your experience?

Cheers

OWG

 

[OzWaveGuy]

The XAO could very possibly finish a complex correction today (or even as of 3:33pm)

For those EWers who haven't yet read the material that Boggo (thanks) posted - you should. It provides quite a good overview of basic EW. It's highly likely that one of the patterns described in the material has completed today.

if you take a look at the market from 10am on the 1-12-08 to now on a 15min chart you should see something like the image below....

http://www.prognosis.nl/elwave/faq/principle/principle2.html#patterns

A little painful to identify, but many complex corrections will be hard to identify until they are nearly finished.

The next few trading hours from today and tomorrow morning should prove whether this complex correction is correct (no pun intended)

 

[Cartman]

The XAO could very possibly finish a complex correction today (or even as of 3:33pm)

For those EWers who haven't yet read the material that Boggo (thanks) posted - you should. It provides quite a good overview of basic EW. It's highly likely that one of the patterns described in the material has completed today.

if you take a look at the market from 10am on the 1-12-08 to now on a 15min chart you should see something like the image below....

http://www.prognosis.nl/elwave/faq/principle/principle2.html#patterns

A little painful to identify, but many complex corrections will be hard to identify until they are nearly finished.

The next few trading hours from today and tomorrow morning should prove whether this complex correction is correct (no pun intended)

Hi Oz, funnily enough I agree with some of your analysis but for a totally different reason------ i was gonna bite my tongue but i cant help it ------ None of the following is directed at U Oz U just sparked the flame

you cant put the horse before the cart ---- the charts patterns we all think we are seeing in E/W Fibs etc etc are nothing more than the smart money playing the game. The only thing traders need to concentrate on is where the smart cash is going in and or out of the market. the waves created by the smart money may well look like a brilliant abc 123 etc etc but that is just a representation of where the big bucks are going

If we can follow the cash of the biggest boys- --- not the big boys!! then over time ---- time is very important thankyou Frank ------ we will end up rich

biggest problem is ---- do you (we ) have deep enough pockets to follow the biggest boys for the timescale they are working in??? Too long a time frame for me !!, so I try and follow the big boys or the semi- big boys and pick up the dregs of the shorter term plays (counter trends after the biggest boys have shown their hand !!) ranting raving etc etc ----- dogmatic viewers will take my comments with a passing glance and dismiss lol

20th and 21st November 2008 SPI look important days to me (3200-3400 = value buying??) ------ biggest boys ?? maybe?? TIME will tell.

 

[MRC & Co]

Don't follow EW so won't comment on that and don't want to hiijack the thread.

But interesting points Frank. My mind struggles to grasp your concept of 'time', but that explanation definately made it easier. I remember reading Penfold apply 'time' to EW in his book, "trading the SPI", whereby he also mentioned you in relation to pivot points. I guess he introduced time after reading your work.

Cartman, WTF are you on about?

 

[Cartman]

Cartman, WTF are you on about?

Hahah Are you serious MRC?? You dont know?? C'mon you are a trader. The reason you dont use E/W is because you ARE a trader!! Traders follow the smart money ------ dont they??!!

ps If we dont test at least 3400 soon I'll be very surprised!

 

[OzWaveGuy]

Hi Oz, funnily enough I agree with some of your analysis but for a totally different reason------ i was gonna bite my tongue but i cant help it ------ None of the following is directed at U Oz U just sparked the flame

No problems Cartman.

As EW is based on the psychology of the 'herd', it doesn't matter what the big boys and the 'smart money' is doing - when it's all rolled up, it all plays out in waves that can be analyzed.

On a semi-related topic - a demonstration of market psychology was briefly conducted here --> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=364384&postcount=231

based simply on the psychology of people in this forum and nothing to do with 'smart money'.

 

[MRC & Co]

Hahah Are you serious MRC?? You dont know?? C'mon you are a trader. The reason you dont use E/W is because you ARE a trader!! Traders follow the smart money ------ dont they??!!

ps If we dont test at least 3400 soon I'll be very surprised!

Big boys, biggest boys, semi-big boys? ha ha ha. I have a hard enough time deciphering if someone at least big enough to get on board with is doing something worthwhile, let alone figuring out which one is which.

I don't really believe in the concept of 'smart money' anymore. Just look at all the terrible investment returns (or lack thereof) out there lately from some HUGE institutions. Why didn't they get out at the top, if they are the 'smart money'? :

Back to EW and the introduction of time.

 

[Cartman]

No problems Cartman.

As EW is based on the psychology of the 'herd', it doesn't matter what the big boys and the 'smart money' is doing - when it's all rolled up, it all plays out in waves that can be analyzed.

On a semi-related topic - a demonstration of market psychology was briefly conducted here --> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=364384&postcount=231

based simply on the psychology of people in this forum and nothing to do with 'smart money'.

Hi Oz, Im obviously in the minority here (even a trader like MRC doesnt understand my logic !! haha )

Not trying to create waves -- haha -- ok,not funny ----- just an alternative perception of what makes the market tick

Seriously though, the smart money DRIVES the market period!! It may not enter or exit where we think it should, but if you can recognise its footprint, then put your money on and come back in a couple of years and reap the benefits.

Problem ------- the smart money has DEEP POCKETS ----- they may buy the market and be happy for it to drop another 10% ----- as retail traders, can we ride out the bumps?? Not me unfortunately. im young and have limited capital

My point was, I choose to see where the smart money enters/exits the market, then ride off the second phase of trading (cause the smart money has already made its position known !! ------- high volume/high range etc --- but which part of the range did the smart money enter ???? Very important !

anyway, im probably wasting my time sharing my views --- just interested whether any others saw the logic. Humans are so goddamn dogmatic about their perceptions/views

 

[Cartman]

. Why didn't they get out at the top, if they are the 'smart money'? :

Back to EW and the introduction of time.

Lol More than likely they did !! :

Seriously though MRC, I respect your posts i was just stirring the pot but you aint gona convince me that the SMARTEST (not just smart), money doesnt drive the market

The market is driven by greed. The deeper your pockets the more clout you have. The trick is how we choose to follow the greed.

 

[mazzatelli1000]

Hi Oz, Im obviously in the minority here (even a trader like MRC doesnt understand my logic !! haha )

Not trying to create waves -- haha -- ok,not funny ----- just an alternative perception of what makes the market tick

Seriously though, the smart money DRIVES the market period!! It may not enter or exit where we think it should, but if you can recognise its footprint, then put your money on and come back in a couple of years and reap the benefits.

Problem ------- the smart money has DEEP POCKETS ----- they may buy the market and be happy for it to drop another 10% ----- as retail traders, can we ride out the bumps?? Not me unfortunately. im young and have limited capital

My point was, I choose to see where the smart money enters/exits the market, then ride off the second phase of trading (cause the smart money has already made its position known !! ------- high volume/high range etc --- but which part of the range did the smart money enter ???? Very important !

anyway, im probably wasting my time sharing my views --- just interested whether any others saw the logic. Humans are so goddamn dogmatic about their perceptions/views

Nothing new here - did you just discover this concept ???
- but I have seen Nick Radge forecast using EW XAO hitting around 3,200 mark about a month before it did

But Franks Time Concept is very interesting....

 

[tech/a]

Hi Oz, Im obviously in the minority here (even a trader like MRC doesnt understand my logic !! haha )

Not trying to create waves -- haha -- ok,not funny ----- just an alternative perception of what makes the market tick

Seriously though, the smart money DRIVES the market period!! It may not enter or exit where we think it should, but if you can recognise its footprint, then put your money on and come back in a couple of years and reap the benefits.

Problem ------- the smart money has DEEP POCKETS ----- they may buy the market and be happy for it to drop another 10% ----- as retail traders, can we ride out the bumps?? Not me unfortunately. im young and have limited capital

My point was, I choose to see where the smart money enters/exits the market, then ride off the second phase of trading (cause the smart money has already made its position known !! ------- high volume/high range etc --- but which part of the range did the smart money enter ???? Very important !

anyway, im probably wasting my time sharing my views --- just interested whether any others saw the logic. Humans are so goddamn dogmatic about their perceptions/views

Sure Volume Spread Analysis has been around for years.
http://www.tradeguider.com/
Get a hold of the E book if you can.

Back to Elliott.

 

[Cartman]

Nothing new here - did you just discover this concept ???


But Franks Time Concept is very interesting....

Ouch!!

If its not new, does that mean agree with me Mazza

 

[Cartman]

Sure Volume Spread Analysis has been around for years.
Back to Elliott.

OK Tech I'll bite ------ First of all I assume we are not talking singular stocks here ok?? so Index's or FX ??

Do you separate E/W from VSA or use it in conjunction?

Im assuming conjunction ----- so which has the most importance in your analysis?

for eg If you get a strong Wave3 with crap volume how do you respond to that from a trading point of view?

Man this could really get out of hand does anyone see where I'm coming from -------------- I'M TRYING TO HELP --------------- LOL

 

[MRC & Co]

ha ha, your a funny man Cartman.

I see what your trying to say. It's basically Wyckoff and VSA.

 

[Boggo]

My point was, I choose to see where the smart money enters/exits the market, then ride off the second phase of trading (cause the smart money has already made its position known !! ------- high volume/high range etc --- but which part of the range did the smart money enter ???? Very important !

Great in theory Cartman, based on the above did you follow Morgan Stanley when they bought 171 million shares in OZ Minerals.

Were they "smart money" then, now ?

I have tried that approach Cartman, I have gone full circle and am right back now where the entry, exit and stop loss points are really all that matters.

I do support the theory for long term holdings (SMSF etc) that fundamental stability and technical analysis work well together.
Fundamentals are not faring that well at the moment nor is the so called smart money, what is "smart money" anyway.

Look at some of the so called smart money recommendations at the moment, these people are on drugs, would you buy TLS because the so called smart money is recommending them.

The point I am getting to is that you need to get your own edge, most people that can survive in any climate are those that can arrange their "own" advantage.

For most on this particular thread Elliott Wave Analysis is just one of those tools that works 50% of the time on 50% of the market, that is more than enough if you know how to use it. (I am learning something new everyday to my advantage thanks to people like Nick Radge, Robert Miner etc etc)

If you can lay your hands on a copy of Edwin Lefevre's book "Reminiscences of a Stock Operator", the book about Jesse Livermore 'reading the tape', he was the smart money as opposed to the mass money.

Don't confuse the mass money with the smart money.

That my Cartman, Cheers, Boggo

 

[Cartman]

ha ha, your a funny man Cartman.

I see what your trying to say. It's basically Wyckoff and VSA.

Thanks MRC, I was starting to get a bit paranoid there (I seriously do appreciate your posts

Wycoff ---- who the hell is Wycoff !! lol ----- Ive learned to question the markets from my old man -------------- my old man is a loser lol !!!!

Nah my old man is cool he just lost all our money, but i figure I'll make up for his stuff ups

 

[Cartman]

Great in theory Cartman, based on the above did you follow Morgan Stanley when they bought 171 million shares in OZ Minerals.

Were they "smart money" then, now ?

Hey Bog, Understand your points ---------- Please refer to my previous post to Tech ------------- I am talking the bigger picture --- Index's/fUTS etc -------- ie Stocks dont count !!

Individual stocks dont mean crapola --- small potatoes --- anyone (even the big guys) can make a ballzup on a given stock, but when the big money comes in on the futs, we need to take notice cause that is serious moula !!

ps read the R of a Stock Broker --- one of my favorites --- kind of thought i was thinking like him actually ------------------

the crowd says "we are doing this" ------------ smart money says "screw you guys" we're going home!! (para-phrased for obvious reasons!!)

 

[MRC & Co]

ha ha ha, you crack me up Cartman. Completely random like one of my best mates.

Agree with Boggo, there is smart money and there is large money.

Smart money is any kind of money that has an edge. Large money can get stuck in positions they don't want (read reminiscences like Boggo says, you will see Mr Livermore corner a market (including futs) and get stuck with positions he does not even want). If you can work out when large money is entering/exiting, you can frontrun them, and become the smart money.

Books like the VSA one make out there is some secret underground group of guys out there that are trying to quietly manipulate the market. Though, the basic premise of getting on when bigger guys do and getting out when bigger guys do, to make dosh, is the same.

 

[Cartman]

ha ha ha, you crack me up Cartman. Completely random like one of my best mates.

Agree with Boggo, there is smart money and there is large money.

Smart money is any kind of money that has an edge. Large money can get stuck in positions they don't want (read reminiscences like Boggo says, you will see Mr Livermore corner a market (including futs) and get stuck with positions he does not even want). If you can work out when large money is entering/exiting, you can frontrun them, and become the smart money.

Books like the VSA one make out there is some secret underground group of guys out there that are trying to quietly manipulate the market. Though, the basic premise of getting on when bigger guys do and getting out when bigger guys do, to make dosh, is the same.

Ha!! maybe i am your best mate and you dont know ive registered on ASF just to stir the crap out of you lol

In all seriousness though --- getting back to the thread as Tech so eloquently and subtly noted in post whatever it was ---- does E/W tell us anything we dont already know in contrast to a couple of MA's and a Stochastic fitted to the time frame we are looking at??

for eg can we take entry points from E/W??

does E/W work on a 1 minute chart??

a one second chart??

Im guessing that all E/Wers still use basic T/A for entries ---- ??

ps All this is for discussion only -- im only pretending to stir the pot -- im genuinely interested --

 

[OzWaveGuy]

does E/W tell us anything we dont already know in contrast to a couple of MA's and a Stochastic fitted to the time frame we are looking at??

for eg can we take entry points from E/W??

does E/W work on a 1 minute chart??

a one second chart??

Im guessing that all E/Wers still use basic T/A for entries ---- ??

ps All this is for discussion only -- im only pretending to stir the pot -- im genuinely interested --

Cartman - I suggest you spend some time reading thru this thread and some of the others on EW in the forum. Answers to your questions should be forthcoming. If you have other questions after reading, either I or others will be happy to answer them. In addition there are a number of books that various people have recommended in the past.