Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Trump Era 2025-2029 : Stock and Economic Comment

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well only a Democrat thought the economy was strong and resilient ( and even half the Progressives were seeing the cracks .. that would be the ones wanting education debt forgiveness )

it will be interesting to see if REAL data now emerges to make Trump look bad ( and if Trump calls it a financial emergency to make even bigger changes )

you have crumbling railways ( and bridges ) , rusty warships , and creaking infrastructure , now sure a lot of public spending money was being siphoned off into non-productive projects , but stuff wasn't being repaired well either

Trump won because the 'rust belt' could see the US needed change ( not the Ivy League and their mega-buck donors )

so the question is ... can Trump do enough to turn this around in the next 10 years ( assuming Vance gets elected at the next election )
 
divs4ever said:
well only a Democrat thought the economy was strong and resilient ( and even half the Progressives were seeing the cracks .. that would be the ones wanting education debt forgiveness )

it will be interesting to see if REAL data now emerges to make Trump look bad ( and if Trump calls it a financial emergency to make even bigger changes )

you have crumbling railways ( and bridges ) , rusty warships , and creaking infrastructure , now sure a lot of public spending money was being siphoned off into non-productive projects , but stuff wasn't being repaired well either

Trump won because the 'rust belt' could see the US needed change ( not the Ivy League and their mega-buck donors )

so the question is ... can Trump do enough to turn this around in the next 10 years ( assuming Vance gets elected at the next election )
Click to expand...
I reckon he will cut infrastructure spending related to maintenance because that is what he did last time because if budget issues. But maybe this time is different.
 
Knobby22 said:
I reckon he will cut infrastructure spending related to maintenance because that is what he did last time because if budget issues. But maybe this time is different.
Click to expand...
i think more maintenance , and more incentives for business to build more ( new ) infrastructure

but that will only happen IF rates continue to fall ( business can't bet on Trump winning in 2028 , so they will have to build quick )

MAYBE Trump will cut ( more ) red tape for construction

but more importantly he must build investor/business confidence ( to invest in projects , not leave cash sitting in the short term money markets )

i don't have immense faith in Trump ( too little too late ) but i had absolutely no faith in the last administration

i will still bias my international exposure towards Asia/India ( ex Japan ) that should still have some organic growth left
 
Buffet has labeled tariffs as an act of war expect markets to think the same what the outcome is who knows but expect global recession baked in which could finally rinse out weak hands blow back to Oz significant. The risk I worry about is bad actors seizing the opportunity to take territory under the new rules.
 
IFocus said:
Buffet has labeled tariffs as an act of war
Click to expand...
yes , they are a subset of siege warfare , BUT that doesn't always result in physical conflict

HOWEVER some areas ( like the EU ) have applied tariffs to imports for decades

i don't say Trump is right to apply tariffs BUT the US is in a mess and it is a possible better remedy than previous policy

IF the US had not run down it's own manufacturing , MAYBE tariffs would not have been necessary

the mess is not even a Biden-caused mess this has taken decades to decay this badly

i am not so sure about a global recession , a widespread one , yes that looks to be baked in the cake , i think there will be small niches that will be able to seize opportunity grow ( now the global bullies are absorbed by their own internal issues , and too busy to meddle )
now it is possible ( but i sincerely doubt it ) that Australia could be one of those nations to seize the opportunity , we grow food , have adequate energy and minerals , it might not be luxury , but grow we can ( if we wanted to )
 
that's enough of maybe-lean

in the real world, it's never a dull moment. Whether the master strategist will pull it off or not remains to be seen, but the oil market is due some disruption

Trump administration moves to shut down Iran’s oil exports​

​
US trade policy shifts focus to deficit reduction, impacting key trading relationships.

The Trump administration is escalating its sanctions campaign against Iran, aiming to cripple the country’s oil industry and disrupt its economy. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Thursday that the U.S. is taking steps to shut down Iran’s oil sector and cut its access to international financial systems.

“We are going to shut down Iran’s oil sector and drone manufacturing capabilities,” Bessent told the Economic Club of New York. He added that the goal of the administration’s policy is to collapse Iran’s economy, urging Iranians to move their assets out of the rial.

Crude oil markets react​

Following Bessent’s remarks, crude oil prices saw slight gains. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose by 5 cents to $66.36 per barrel, while Brent crude increased by 16 cents to $69.46 per barrel. Oil analysts say the expected reduction in Iranian supply is the main bullish factor supporting prices amid broader market uncertainty.

Trump’s latest sanctions follow a presidential memorandum issued on 4 February, reinstating his administration’s “maximum pressure” strategy. This was followed by Treasury Department sanctions targeting a network shipping Iranian oil to China.

Plans to disrupt oil shipments​

In addition to financial sanctions, the administration is reportedly considering direct measures to slow Iranian oil exports. According to sources cited by Reuters, the National Security Council is exploring ways to stop and inspect Iranian tankers at key maritime chokepoints. The initiative could involve U.S. allies enforcing inspections under the Proliferation Security Initiative, which was originally designed to curb the trafficking of weapons of mass destruction.

A U.S. official quoted in the report suggested that delaying tanker deliveries would create uncertainty in Iran’s oil trade, reducing its ability to meet supply contracts. Some estimates indicate that this strategy could cut Iran’s exports by 750,000 barrels per day.

Despite Western sanctions, Iran has continued to generate substantial oil revenue. The country is estimated to have earned over $50 billion annually from oil exports in recent years, with shipments rising 50% in February compared to the previous month, according to TankerTrackers.com.

Iranian response and geopolitical risks​

Iranian officials have yet to formally respond to the latest U.S. measures, though President Masoud Pezeshkian recently acknowledged that the new sanctions were creating logistical challenges for oil shipments. In the past, Iran has retaliated against U.S. enforcement actions by seizing oil tankers in the Persian Gulf.

The possibility of Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passage for global oil shipments, remains a major concern. Previous U.S. attempts to seize Iranian oil cargoes have resulted in retaliatory actions, including the detention of tankers linked to Western companies.

Meanwhile, Iran’s tanker fleet has expanded, with watchdog groups reporting a significant rise in the number of ships involved in oil exports. Many of these vessels are suspected of operating under false flags or using ship-to-ship transfers to evade detection.

Uncertain impact on oil markets​

While the U.S. seeks to cut Iranian oil exports to near zero, analysts note that Iran has consistently found ways to circumvent sanctions. The use of smaller tankers and alternative shipping routes has allowed Iran to maintain its trade, particularly with China.

With oil prices under pressure from global economic concerns and OPEC+ production adjustments, the effectiveness of Trump’s latest measures remains uncertain. However, any escalation in U.S.-Iran tensions could introduce new volatility into global energy markets.
.
...from ShareCafe
 
IFocus said:
Buffet has labeled tariffs as an act of war expect markets to think the same what the outcome is who knows but expect global recession baked in which could finally rinse out weak hands blow back to Oz significant. The risk I worry about is bad actors seizing the opportunity to take territory under the new rules.
Click to expand...
XJO is getting absolutely pummeled for whatever you think that's worth.
 
or should i say in the wrong places ( for me )

so far the XJO has held above 8000

good luck if that is penetrated decisively
 

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