Market Crash 2025

[Craton]

With all that is going on in this new Trumpian world, I can't help but think of Carl Sagan's Pale Blue Dot: A Vision of the Human Future in Space.
Within he writes the following (my bolds):

Our posturings, our imagined self-importance, the delusion that we have some privileged position in the Universe, are challenged by this point of pale light. Our planet is a lonely speck in the great enveloping cosmic dark. In our obscurity, in all this vastness, there is no hint that help will come from elsewhere to save us from ourselves.

 

[dyna]

Off topic and don't care .
I see that name , Carl Sagan and fall apart .
My hero . What a guy !
Dead at just 62 .
Life ain't fair . It's just not .

At least we've got his books .
This man did more for the spread of scientific thought to millions all over the world , than any human that has ever lived . Go science !

 

[mullokintyre]

Off topic and don't care .
I see that name , Carl Sagan and fall apart .
My hero . What a guy !
Dead at just 62 .
Life ain't fair . It's just not .

At least we've got his books .
This man did more for the spread of scientific thought to millions all over the world , than any human that has ever lived . Go science !

The fact that he died so young and other useless &$@#*% have still survived convinced me there are no gods.
Mick

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Old mate J. D. could well be the next president .
Have the Republicans thought this through , I wonder ?
Nobody's laughing at the Trumpster , anymore .
Vance will scare the pants off the whole world . It's only 4 years away . too !

Vance would be interesting to watch as President. It is more likely than not, given Trump's age and the amount of hate he has engendered in a country with a high prevalence of violence whether due to mental illness, substances such as ICE which make people angry and delusional or the amount of guns sashaying about the joint that the Orange Moron may not survives his second, nor for that matter his third if he can swing it.

I don't believe he will be as dangerous as Trump, he will change his spots as he has so many times in life. Would I prefer him to be President? I honestly do not know. He is more in touch with the markets than ole Donald and is not as fixed in his delusions nor thoughts generally and is less scatter brained. His utterances can be picked apart and make some kind of sense to those outside of Magas' simple minded supporters. Not that I agree with all of his beliefs.

I believe the markets would stabilise but as for geopolitics being more settled I am less certain.

gg

 

[farmerge]

Vance would be interesting to watch as President. It is more likely than not, given Trump's age and the amount of hate he has engendered in a country with a high prevalence of violence whether due to mental illness, substances such as ICE which make people angry and delusional or the amount of guns sashaying about the joint that the Orange Moron may not survives his second, nor for that matter his third if he can swing it.

I don't believe he will be as dangerous as Trump, he will change his spots as he has so many times in life. Would I prefer him to be President? I honestly do not know. He is more in touch with the markets than ole Donald and is not as fixed in his delusions nor thoughts generally and is less scatter brained. His utterances can be picked apart and make some kind of sense to those outside of Magas' simple minded supporters. Not that I agree with all of his beliefs.

I believe the markets would stabilise but as for geopolitics being more settled I am less certain.

gg

@Garpal Gumnut Looking into my cracked Crystal Ball and gazing absent mindedly, there is not much in the way of suitable candidates who could/should be POTUS. Perhaps bring Sleepy Joe back, at least he would be asleep for long stretches so as to not antaganise the world in general.
Then after that just perhaps someone with suitable credentials my come forth.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Apple is pulling back on it's data centre build and it is in a world of trouble with it's AI rollout and China punishing it using it as a proxy for Trump. There just isn't enough time for it to retool in India nor the USA and it may after NVDA be a stimulus for a crash. NVDA depends on the other Mag 7 entities for it's existence/profits now that China appears to be cut off from any sales. Jensen Huang made a hurried visit to China last week but I haven't seen much news of his meetings which doesn't sound promising.

The reason I mention these two companies is that should they crash, then everyone crashes. There will be a domino effect. Our ASX will fall. Unless Trump can pull a rabbit out of his hat, not fire Powell and get some people around him with some clue about economics I see no alternative to a crash. When you say. Sometime in the next 4 years, 4 months, 4 weeks, 4 days.

Take your pick.

gg

 

[Craton]

Vance would be interesting to watch as President. <snip>

gg

Hmm, if orange man doesn't oust him beforehand.

From here and reads in part:

Fox News’s Bret Baier had asked Trump in a pre-Super Bowl interview if he viewed Vance as the 2028 GOP nominee, and Trump replied, “No, but he’s very capable.”

“I think you have a lot of very capable people. So far, I think he’s doing a very fantastic job,” the president added. “It’s too early, we’re just starting.”

No doubt JD is trying his hardest to stay in the good books as per the current India visit:

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

The US markets are quite interesting. There is talk of them reaching all time highs again soon. Last week was volatility on speed. Down a lot early in the week, then a huge recovery in general for the Mag 7.

The action is directly related to one thing, and one thing only. Quotes on Truth Social or on Foxnews from Trump on his tariffs, mainly on China. China's responses don't seem to garner as much attention. Trump is a pathological liar.

Trump could not lie straight in his coffin. It does seem to energise the tipsters and financial TV stars though such as Jim Cramer. The gold price is a good indicator of an impending crash imo. Should gold fall greatly in price ( not rise as crashes don't give warnings ) I will be buying gold again. As conversely the SPY, DJia and NASDAQ will be on a roll up again, without substance, on debt and unrealistic p/e values. And everybody will be back in on FOMO.

Will it be next week or next month or later this year. Who knows. But it is getting there.

A market crash beckons.

gg

 

[Knobby22]

6 6th Y⁶it

The US markets are quite interesting. There is talk of them reaching all time highs again soon. Last week was volatility on speed. Down a lot early in the week, then a huge recovery in general for the Mag 7.

The action is directly related to one thing, and one thing only. Quotes on Truth Social or on Foxnews from Trump on his tariffs, mainly on China. China's responses don't seem to garner as much attention. Trump is a pathological liar.

Trump could not lie straight in his coffin. It does seem to energise the tipsters and financial TV stars though such as Jim Cramer. The gold price is a good indicator of an impending crash imo. Should gold fall greatly in price ( not rise as crashes don't give warnings ) I will be buying gold again. As conversely the SPY, DJia and NASDAQ will be on a roll up again, without substance, on debt and unrealistic p/e values. And everybody will be back in on FOMO.

Will it be next week or next month or later this year. Who knows. But it is getting there.

A market crash beckons.

gg

Trump appeared positively normal at Pope Francis funeral and appears to realise he needs other people to run the USA, (like his businesses after a few banktuptcies). e.g. he has others now handling trade and Ukraine.

If he continues to take a hands off approach maybe it won't get worse and he will also be able to get more golf in. Win win!

 

[farmerge]

6 6th Y⁶it
Trump appeared positively normal at Pope Francis funeral and appears to realise he needs other people to run the USA, (like his businesses after a few banktuptcies). e.g. he has others now handling trade and Ukraine.

If he continues to take a hands off approach maybe it won't get worse and he will also be able to get more golf in. Win win!

@Knobby22 If only The Orange One would stay on a secluded golf course wouldn't we and the world be in a much better place.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

this is a daily chart of holdings in my name - a grab of six in the top 50 plus 2 LICs - over the last 6 months.

First we had the (unconvincing) V then a nervous W. ... will we return to earlier or are these still nervy times?

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

I've been up all night with a flu and followed US market action. It is notoriously difficult to get the timing correct on a crash.

Any day now though imo.

There are very few avenues towards safety, which is characteristic of a crash. The trading on the big gainers was skittish. There is nothing in the rule book that says a rise of 6-8% protects one from having a stock crash the following day with everything else.

gg

 

[frugal.rock]

Vix says a little different perhaps. Stabilising?
Daily and monthly.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Vix says a little different perhaps. Stabilising?
Daily and monthly.

View attachment 198715View attachment 198716

It is still at 24 though and is not a leading indicator. By the time it goes back up again it may be too late.

I take your point though @frugal.rock .

Thanks.

gg

 

[Dona Ferentes]

from the mailbox, part of a chatty weekly freebie:

Two bob each way.

" ... So, how about these markets? I will give you a brief rundown of what I am thinking…

I am thinking that stocks will rally another 5–8%, consolidate, and then—kaboom. I don’t know what the kaboom is, whether it’s private equity or China or Trump or something else, but this reminds me a lot of the price action after 9/11. In both cases, you had an exogenous shock, a rally up close to the highs, and a consolidation. We are in the rally part right now. If we rally 5–8% from here, you should probably take this opportunity to cut risk significantly. Of course, that is my opinion right now, and it might change after emailing this newsletter to my editor. Because I can change my mind!

I also think that the “capital flight” theme where stocks, bonds, and the dollar are selling off at the same time is very stale and expired, and after the last two Economist covers, we are bound to see a rally in US assets..... "

- Jared Dillian

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

So the Yanks are going gangbusters again. All the big semiconductor stocks are up anything from 4% to 8%. Walmart are packing the shoplifters in for money for their cocaine. Ole Trump is still on cheeseburgers, diet coke and Ozempic by the looks of him or has he got cancer ?

What can go wrong ?



gg