Trump Era 2025-2029 : Stock and Economic Comment

[moXJO]

He sure knows how to make use of desperation, but it will be embedded in the minds of nations for years, and you don't know if they're waiting for the right time to pounce like China. Zelensky had no choice, Trump pulled 50% of the war support and there's no one that will fill that space. Zelensky tried to renege on the minerals deal 3 times before, and the EU wants it to be over because they're broke. What's better, being run by commie Putin or Trump pilaging all your mineral assets?

I got a funny feeling if Trump loses he'll try to bring everyone down around him with a global recession, China and Japan was smart and sold down their US Govt bonds.

US was always going to end up with those minerals. I mentioned that a few years back. I'm sure blackrock entered a while ago to start pilfering. Trump just did it in the open.

So far the original globalisation was been gutted and exposed. Realistically covid unveiled the weakness when US realised it's at the mercy of China supply lines.

I don't think the US cares about other nations that have been taking advantage of the US for decades. They all have more to lose than the US. Canada and Mexico especially.

While I know how devastating a recession can be, are we at the point that we need the reset?

 

[over9k]

global recession

That's already baked in. It's just a question of how they'll fudge the numbers. Print money whilst still having a "per capita recession" so not technically a recession. Or have massive unemployment but economic growth in the top 2% outweighing it so not technically a recession. Or a massive cost of living crisis where inflation is higher than economic growth but because the economy is still growing in nominal terms not technically a recession.

See where I'm going with this?

 

[over9k]

While I know how devastating a recession can be, are we at the point that we need the reset?

Been long past that point for years. The question is what's going to give. They've managed to kick the can down the road for years and years and years (decades) at this point.

Eventually things like national debts ARE going to become unmanageable. Eventually the economic pain is going to become so undeniable that the general public are going to say "we don't give a flying f**k what the statistics say".

We are going to eventually hit a point where there's no bullets left to fire and no more numbers to fudge/ways to deny it all. THAT is when to get worried.

In the meantime, they'll keep doing everything they can to avoid and/or deny the pain.

Significant civil unrest I think is the best case scenario. Think of all the protests in response to the U.K trying to impose the inheritance tax on farms as a very mild indicator of what's coming next.

That italian new yorker executing that healthcare CEO is just the tip of a very large iceberg IMHO. I'm sure something similiar will happen to a dodgy builder at some point and plenty of other similiar instances.

Assassinating a president is obviously quite difficult but executing a healthcare CEO or the head of blackrock or something has been shown to be child's play.


You can just see how it wouldn't take a lot of narrative re: "The reason you can't afford a house is because blackrock keeps buying them all up and then bleeding everybody dry renting them back to us" before things got very ugly very quickly.

And that's just housing.

 

[Knobby22]

Been long past that point for years. The question is what's going to give. They've managed to kick the can down the road for years and years and years (decades) at this point.

Eventually things like national debts ARE going to become unmanageable. Eventually the economic pain is going to become so undeniable that the general public are going to say "we don't give a flying f**k what the statistics say".

We are going to eventually hit a point where there's no bullets left to fire and no more numbers to fudge/ways to deny it all. THAT is when to get worried.

In the meantime, they'll keep doing everything they can to avoid and/or deny the pain.

Significant civil unrest I think is the best case scenario. Think of all the protests in response to the U.K trying to impose the inheritance tax on farms as a very mild indicator of what's coming next.

That italian new yorker executing that healthcare CEO is just the tip of a very large iceberg IMHO. I'm sure something similiar will happen to a dodgy builder at some point and plenty of other similiar instances.

Assassinating a president is obviously quite difficult but executing a healthcare CEO or the head of blackrock or something has been shown to be child's play.


You can just see how it wouldn't take a lot of narrative re: "The reason you can't afford a house is because blackrock keeps buying them all up and then bleeding everybody dry renting them back to us" before things got very ugly very quickly.

And that's just housing.

They could easily not do the tax cuts and reduce the debt. (with all the cuts that will take place)
It's just not the way the US thinks.

 

[moXJO]

Been long past that point for years. The question is what's going to give. They've managed to kick the can down the road for years and years and years (decades) at this point.

Eventually things like national debts ARE going to become unmanageable. Eventually the economic pain is going to become so undeniable that the general public are going to say "we don't give a flying f**k what the statistics say".

We are going to eventually hit a point where there's no bullets left to fire and no more numbers to fudge/ways to deny it all. THAT is when to get worried.

In the meantime, they'll keep doing everything they can to avoid and/or deny the pain.

Significant civil unrest I think is the best case scenario. Think of all the protests in response to the U.K trying to impose the inheritance tax on farms as a very mild indicator of what's coming next.

That italian new yorker executing that healthcare CEO is just the tip of a very large iceberg IMHO. I'm sure something similiar will happen to a dodgy builder at some point and plenty of other similiar instances.

Assassinating a president is obviously quite difficult but executing a healthcare CEO or the head of blackrock or something has been shown to be child's play.


You can just see how it wouldn't take a lot of narrative re: "The reason you can't afford a house is because blackrock keeps buying them all up and then bleeding everybody dry renting them back to us" before things got very ugly very quickly.

And that's just housing.

Unfortunately I have shared this opinion for a while.

 

[moXJO]

They could easily not do the tax cuts and reduce the debt.
It's just not US thinking.

At this point I think they want to internally stimulate.

 

[Knobby22]

At this point I think they want to internally stimulate.

Top down. no tax cuts for the middle class.
It may be the plan for the company tax cuts though.

 

[over9k]

They could easily not do the tax cuts and reduce the debt. (with all the cuts that will take place)
It's just not the way the US thinks.

Well this is the funny thing here, tariffs are a tax. They're just not called a tax. And the beauty of them is that they can actually be avoided if you just don't buy whatever they've been imposed on. They don't punish you for earning a living/going to work. You can just avoid them if you tighten your belt. Trump's even waxing lyrical right this second as he's addressing congress (turn the news on you'll see it right now, I'm literally watching it as I type this) about how much revenue they're projected to bring in and how they can fix the federal budget etc with it:



From the perspective of politicking/playing the political game it's an absolutely brilliant move as they've gotten the american public to effectively vote for a tax increase, something you'd consider to be absolute anathema to typical american from almost any background. I can't think of anything that unites the entirety of the political right like opposition to paying taxes (and the higher echelons/establishment of the political left) and yet trump's managed to get them to actually support it.

I genuinely think it's one of those 4D chess moves people talk about.

 

[DannyB0000]

If inflation starts to spike higher because of higher prices and people wake up to the fact that tariffs are tax hike on them, meanwhile the rich are getting tax cuts paid for by everyone else, there will civil strife over that. Trump promised to bring down prices, inflation would be zero. There are a lot of guns and bullets in that country.

 

[over9k]

meanwhile the rich are getting tax cuts paid for by everyone else

That's the wildcard. If trump keeps all the other taxes where they are he should be ok. Imposing tariffs while reducing corporate taxes would be... politically foolish.

 

[divs4ever]

Is this the way to run a country?

compared the previously well-tried plan ?

they were heading towards a very steep ravine , but now could be heading towards a rock wall or a very rickety bridge over the ravine ,

time will tell which

something had to be done ( unless you wanted a total US collapse ) but was the correct strategy chosen

 

[divs4ever]

He sure knows how to make use of desperation, but it will be embedded in the minds of nations for years, and you don't know if they're waiting for the right time to pounce like China. Zelensky had no choice, Trump pulled 50% of the war support and there's no one that will fill that space. Zelensky tried to renege on the minerals deal 3 times before, and the EU wants it to be over because they're broke. What's better, being run by commie Putin or Trump pilaging all your mineral assets?

I got a funny feeling if Trump loses he'll try to bring everyone down around him with a global recession, China and Japan was smart and sold down their US Govt bonds.

well i am not sure Japan had a choice , and China how much other stuff ( muni. bonds and stuff ) along with the bonds

( BTW i suspect China is just letting existing bonds mature and NOT rolling them over to new US investments )

 

[Knobby22]

compared the previously well-tried plan ?

they were heading towards a very steep ravine , but now could be heading towards a rock wall or a very rickety bridge over the ravine ,

time will tell which

something had to be done ( unless you wanted a total US collapse ) but was the correct strategy chosen

It appears haphazard. I hope with the European tariffs they work out what they want to do first.

 

[moXJO]

The meme is already set

 

[divs4ever]

It appears haphazard. I hope with the European tariffs they work out what they want to do first.

well the EU has plenty of experience in protectionist policies , it was the selling point to get the bloc formed , however is Trump better at it ( protectionism ) than the EU

not many working neurons left in the EU administration , it MIGHT accelerate the decline of the EU ( ECC )

which i have considered a basket-case since the last Greece-Cyprus ( and PIGS ) crisis , about 10 years back

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Ring-fencing the Australian economy, and which companies will be affected less

is it possible?.

 

[sptrawler]

Ring-fencing the Australian economy, and which companies will be affected less

is it possible?.

No, the only exports making any money are iron ore, coal and LNG.
Australians don't like coal and LNG, so with an increasing population, iron ore has a lot of heavy lifting to do to do as long as China still buys it.
We just have to hope the government give us enough money, to keep flipping houses to each other, for a profit.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

No, the only exports making any money are iron ore, coal and LNG.
Australians don't like coal and LNG, so with an increasing population, iron ore has a lot of heavy lifting to do to do as long as China still buys it.
We just have to hope the government give us enough money, to keep flipping houses to each other, for a profit.

We just need to start using our coal, LNG and Uranium as everyone else in the world is now doing. Iron ore alone cannot lift us out of an inevitable decline given the new world order.

gg

 

[sptrawler]

That's the wildcard. If trump keeps all the other taxes where they are he should be ok. Imposing tariffs while reducing corporate taxes would be... politically foolish.

Unless he says the corporate tax cuts, have to be passed on as price cuts for their product, which would put further pressure on the imported goods.
As you said it is like 4D chess, trying to undo the advantage China has because of their cost base.

 

[divs4ever]

No, the only exports making any money are iron ore, coal and LNG.
Australians don't like coal and LNG, so with an increasing population, iron ore has a lot of heavy lifting to do to do as long as China still buys it.
We just have to hope the government give us enough money, to keep flipping houses to each other, for a profit.

China might be the BIG fish in iron buying , but it is not the only one , India will want more , South Korea has a healthy demand , Japan will probably lose it's appetite ( unless the workforce becomes mostly robots ) , i suspect LNG will increase in popularity ( in Australia , because we hate nuclear worse than coal )

let's see how the current wave of tariffs play out , if Albo zips it we may come out a winner and pick up new customers ( like Vietnam )